There's really no need to overthink things here. Hutchinson is the best prospect in this class -- an edge rusher who could average 12 sacks a year for a decade -- and he plays a premier position. He could play as a stand-up outside linebacker or hand-in-the-dirt end for the Jaguars, meeting quarterbacks in the backfield with 2019 first-rounder Josh Allen.
For much of this offseason, it seemed that the Jaguars were going to take an OT here to protect Trevor Lawrence. But with their offseason moves, I believe that they made a clear statement that they are comfortable with the options they have up front at the tackle position.
So with that being said, I believe the Jaguars going defense and drafting Aidan Hutchinson. I look for Hutchinson to serve as leader of the defense and be another addition to this team that is really looking for locker room leaders and a new culture post the Urban Meyer era.
There's still some thought the Jags could go Ickey Ekwonu or Evan Neal here and there's also some buzz building about Travon Walker possibly going first overall. I think we could see Shad Khan get involved and push the front office to take an OL, but right now Hutchinson still seems like he's the guy at the top.
Hutchinson isn't just the best prospect in this class, he is also fresh off a historically good season that generated more PFF Wins Above Average (WAA) than any other edge season in the PFF College era, edging out extraordinary campaigns from Chase Young, Joey Bosa and Nick Bosa.
The Michigan edge defender always has a plan. He knows how to set tackles up and consistently forces them to open the door to the counter back inside. His advanced pass-rushing skill set gives him one of the highest floors of any prospect in this class.
The 6-foot-7, 260-pounder possesses the agility, explosiveness, confidence and violence to thrive on the edge. His technical prowess also led to an elite 90.8 run-defense grade in 2021.
Hutchinson earned an FBS-leading 94.5 overall grade last season and is all but a safe projection to the next level. He could help lead a new era on defense in Jacksonville while QB Trevor Lawrence takes control of the offense.
This pick points toward an edge rusher, based on what the Jags have done this offseason. Hutchinson has the ability to pressure quarterbacks from day one; he's already polished as a pass-rusher. He would give the Jaguars an instant-impact defender.
Aidan Hutchinson is our No. 1 player in this class but the Jags have taken edge rushers in the first round in two of the last three drafts and even though the team franchised Cam Robinson and signed Brandon Scherff, there's still room for improvement along the O-line.
The Bengals have all of the offensive weapons they need, and they did a good job of addressing the offensive line issues. So with this pick, they decide to start improving the other side of the football.
I know they have an elite safety in Jessie Bates III, but Daxton Hill provides a different skill set that will only complement Bates and make this one of the best tandems in the NFL.
With offensive line addressed via free agency, the Bengals add a talented but inconsistent cornerback with tremendous upside to help slow down the quarterbacks of the AFC.
Linderbaum is arguably a top-10 prospect, but the problem is that there's not a pressing need for a starting center across the league, especially within zone offenses where the Iowa product best fits.
Cincinnati could certainly use Linderbaum's services, even after signing three new offensive linemen in free agency. The Bengals signed free agent Ted Karras to play center, but he can easily stick at left guard, where he played in 2021 for the Patriots.
Linderbaum may be undersized, but he's an ultra-athlete who plays bigger than his size suggests. He was a top-five-graded center in all three years starting at the position, including in 2021 when he broke the single-season grading record for a center.
Elam, who has gone under the radar in a loaded defensive back class, is a long and physical corner (6-foot-1, 192 pounds). He has easy movement skills, and teams will covet his length. He also has the ability to fight through the hands of receivers at "the moment of truth."
Elam projects well into the Bengals' scheme and would be a great supplement to a defense largely built through free agency. It wouldn't be surprising if he goes higher than this spot, but landing with the Bengals is an ideal scenario.
The Bengals re-upped Eli Apple for another season but isn't much depth at outside corner. Elam is a long, physical CB who is coming off a strong season for the Gators. He needs to get better in run support but he has the size and speed to be successful in the league.
The Ravens could go in several directions here, including offensive tackle (will Ronnie Stanley ever be the same again?) and defensive end (Calais Campbell is back, but he's 35). When I look at this depth chart, though, I see corner depth as an issue. McDuffie has the versatility to play outside and in the slot, and he also will wrap up and bring down ball carriers in the run game. He's physical.
The Ravens do it again. At the 14th pick, they are able to select arguably the best corner in this draft and fill an immediate need for them.
The Ravens' cornerback room is aging and is also injured, so the addition of a player like Derek Stingley Jr. will help revitalize that room. If he reaches his potential, the Ravens have a Pro Bowl-caliber player that they were able to get at pick 14.
Karlaftis is a rugged edge defender who can play with a hand down or standing up. He'd fit the Ravens' culture and has underrated power rushing talent.
Baltimore might not "need" an offensive tackle, but the thought of taking Ikem Ekwonu and kicking him inside to guard is too good to ignore.
From a run-blocking standpoint, Ekwonu seems destined to be an impactful NFL lineman right away and would add to a potent Baltimore rushing attack. He was one of the nastiest run-blockers of the PFF College era and boasted a 93.8 run-blocking grade for the 2021 season -- the highest mark in the Power Five.
Ekwonu's pass sets are still a concern, and it's likely going to take some time for him to be a quality pass-protector in the NFL ranks, though he made strides in that department this past season by raising his pass-blocking grade year-over-year from 55.3 to 78.3.
After getting five sacks and three forced fumbles from rookie Odafe Oweh, their first-round pick last year, the Ravens could try to pair him with another edge rusher in Johnson.
He is a ready-made run defender as well as a mature pass-rusher. Johnson is firm at the point of attack and has a determined mentality throughout games and a playing style that would fit well in Baltimore.
After transferring from Georgia, Johnson has a fantastic season at Florida State. And he told us at the combine that he felt like he had something to prove going from the SEC to the ACC. He did that and then some, then he dominated the Senior Bowl, and followed that up with an electric workout in Indy. The Ravens drafted Odafe Oweh a year ago and he'll get a running mate with Johnson here.
I don't think anyone outside the organization really knows what the Texans will do in Round 1. For this mock, I'm trying to think long-term with Houston, which just has to add some talent. Walker is a bit of risk in the top 10; NFL teams are betting that his physical tools will win out over his subpar college production (9.5 sacks in three seasons). Coaches want to try to maximize that upside. There is a lot of buzz on Walker going early.
I'm going to stick to my board here, and since my top-11 prospects have all been picked (plus Malik Willis), I'll move on to No. 12. Cross is a superb pass-blocker who needs some refinement in the run game -- because he just didn't get the reps to do so while playing for Mike Leach. Ultimately, if the Texans are going to give Davis Mills the 2022 season to prove he's their guy at quarterback, Mills needs a better right tackle. That could be Cross.
Kayvon Thibodeaux has been one of the more scrutinized players in this draft and many are expecting his draft position to drop significantly because of that. But I believe the talent is too much for Lovie Smith, a defensive-minded coach, to pass up.
Smith is known as a player's coach, so I feel Smith will be able to work out any issue or concern and get the best out of Thibodeaux. Thibodeaux should reach his full potential as a guy who can become a Pro Bowl-level player.
13. Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
The Texans need an identity and a presence on the offensive side of the ball, and I believe that Trevor Penning will bring exactly that to this team. Penning is a true enforcer in the run game and a great athlete.
Penning is a plug-and-play starter. If the Texans chose to help relieve some pressure off of their second-year quarterback Davis Mills by running the ball, I believe that Penning is the exact player to help facilitate that effort.
Neal is big (6-foot-7, 350 pounds), athletic and technically sound. He can play both tackle or guard spots and would be the eventual starting left tackle if Laremy Tunsil were to move on.
This could be a trade-in spot for a team looking to add QB. But if the Texans stand pat here, they could roll with Wyatt, a three-down talent with gap-winning quickness who has the run-stopping ability to play along with Maliek Collins.
Sure is easy to make the comparison between Vince Wilfork with the Patriots and Jordan Davis if he lands here with the. Texans. Adding Davis and a pass rusher would immediately make the Texans a much better team just by virtue of their defensive line improvements.
The LSU corner could well be the best all-around athlete in this class. At The Opening showcase event in high school, the 6-foot-1, 195-pound cornerback posted a 4.3-second 40-yard dash and a 42.0-inch vertical -- jaw-dropping numbers for a high school athlete.
Stingley produced the best true freshman season of the PFF College era in 2019 when he posted a 91.7 PFF grade and recorded 21 combined interceptions and pass breakups, all while allowing a catch on just 38% of his targets. He is a top-five talent and the kind of leader Lovie Smith would love to have on his defense.
Johnson was the best player on the field for most of the Senior Bowl practices, impressing scouts so much that he opted out of the final day of practice and the game itself.
The 6-foot-4, 259-pound edge defender has over 34-inch arms and the tools to put them into action. He produced multiple pressures in every game he played for Florida State last season and ended the campaign with an 81.0 PFF grade.
With arguably the worst roster in the NFL right now, the Texans are in a position to accumulate as much talent at premium positions as possible. Neal is a high-floor player who can play immediately and bolster an offensive line that already includes Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard.
At 6-foot-6, 341 pounds, Davis is a wide-bodied interior defender with unheard-of physical tools at that size. I projected offensive tackle Evan Neal to Houston with its first pick, and general manager Nick Caserio could keep building up the trenches by selecting Davis.
Three-down value will be a big factor for Davis' draft range, but he has the potential to up his production. His presence impacts the 10 other players on the field with him, even if it doesn't always show up in the box score.
The QB job now belongs to Davis Mills, and adding O-line depth would make the most sense here, even with some high-quality edge rushers still on the board. Neal could very easily be OT1 in this class and he's a safe pick here at No. 3.
Every receiver on the Texans' roster except Nico Collins has just one year left on their deal. The team got an offensive lineman with the No. 3 pick and here they get Davis Mills a downfield weapon. At 6-foot-5, London was a high-point-catch machine before his '21 season ended prematurely with an ankle injury. He reminds us some of his former teammate at USC, Michael Pittman, and London has all the tools to be WR1.
There could be a run on wide receivers in the 20s, starting with the Patriots and Packers. We know Green Bay needs one after the Davante Adams trade, but I don't think general manager Brian Gutekunst is going to force it. Watson is a riser, as teams see a 6-foot-4 receiver with 4.36 40 speed and elite measurables and think he can be a big-play threat who can grow into a better route runner. Watson averaged 20.4 yards per catch in his college career. Watson is ready to contribute for Aaron Rodgers as a rookie.
Johnson's positional flex is impressive to teams, as he dominated as a guard last season -- he didn't allow a single pressure -- and took snaps at center at the Senior Bowl. He'd most likely play guard in Green Bay, which lost Lucas Patrick in free agency. Packers fans (and Aaron Rodgers) should be happy with this first-round haul, and the franchise has two second-round picks as well.
If the Packers don't draft a receiver in the first round this year, I just don't know what to say. I think the Packers finally do it and take Jahan Dotson to give Aaron Rodgers some much-needed help--especially because he just lost his No. 1 receiving option in Davante Adams this offseason.
The Packers addressed the receiver position with their first pick in the draft to get Rodgers some help, which everyone believes was definitely the right thing to do. The Packers signed Rodgers to a four-year, contract which means they have time to build the roster right in order to win a Super Bowl.
The last time the Packers won a Super Bowl, they had an elite edge rusher in Clay Matthews who created havoc for other offenses. So with this pick, they draft edge rusher David Ojabo, a player that has great pass-rush skills. If he wasn't injured, he would have probably been a top-10 pick.
Green Bay needs a receiver, but the Packers won't reach for one if they see a better player on their board. Davis has rare traits, and his best football may be in front of him.
Doesn't Watson just feel like a Packer? He's a little raw but ridiculously athletic, with the type of size (6-5, 208) that Aaron Rodgers seems to do well with vertically.
The Ravens are the toughest pick in the whole draft to predict. Eric DeCosta's talked about moving both up and down during the first round (and it doesn't sound like typical GM talk either). With lots of WR-needy teams in the back end of the draft, this makes a lot of sense as a spot for someone to move up and grab someone. The Packers do just that and get Aaron Rodgers some needed help. They give Baltimore the 22nd pick along with some late picks.
Watson has been one of the draft's biggest risers over recent months. The 6-foot-4, 208-pound wideout earned an 89.5 receiving grade while generating an astounding 4.33 yards per route run playing in a run-heavy Bison offense last year. He followed that up with one of the best Senior Bowl showings at the position, finishing in the top-three in PFF grade during the one-on-ones.
Watson caught the attention of coaches, scouts and executives at the event and generated even more hype with an elite combine performance. Those testing times and measurements are unbelievable for a player his size. He can be a true X, but teams could also use him creatively, as the San Francisco 49ers do with Deebo Samuel.
Mafe is one of the most underrated players in the 2022 class. The 6-foot-4, 261-pound edge defender is an elite athlete with a fantastic get-off and has continuously improved his pass-rush toolbox. He owns a 90.7 pass-rush grade for his collegiate career and posted the highest win rate of any pass-rusher at the Senior Bowl.
The Packers' philosophy of waiting until Day 2 to draft wide receivers will be put to the test. They haven't selected a first-round receiver since Javon Walker in 2002, and general manager Brian Gutekunst could nix the trend as Olave is too tough to pass up.
Olave is a smooth route runner whose strengths align perfectly with what Green Bay wants to execute on offense. He is a dynamic three-level threat who would quickly become a dangerous target with Aaron Rodgers.
Jones has helped himself during the pre-draft process more than any other prospect. At 6-foot-4, 325 pounds, he can play 0- or 1-technique with success because of how stout he is against the run while providing juice as a pass-rusher to collapse the pocket.
Whether it's Gilbert Brown, B.J. Raji, Mike Daniels and now Kenny Clark, historically, the Packers' defense has been at its best when there is a rock-solid option along the interior. Jones brings that skill set.
Olave is probably the best route runner in this class but he alone won't be able to account for all of Adams' offense. It's a great start, of course, especially for a team that hasn't used a first-rounder on a WR since 2002.
The Packers re-upped De'Vondre Campbell but there's not much depth after that and Nakobe Dean is a special player. And while he played on the best defense in the country, don't get it twisted -- he didn't ride on the coattails of a dominant Georgia defensive line -- Dean was a huge reason for their success. There are questions about his size and how that translates to the NFL, but his tape tells a different story.
I'm not buying a Thibodeaux drop. He might be the most talented prospect in this class. The Jets have to add some juice to their pass rush, and this is the spot to do it. It's also not out of the question that they take a receiver here -- Drake London or Garrett Wilson? -- because their top guy might be off the board by the time they pick at No. 10.
If the Jets can pull this off -- a top-tier receiver here and a high-upside edge rusher at No. 4 -- shouldn't they be considered one of the most improved teams of the offseason? I like what they've done, and they haven't had to break the bank. Of course, that doesn't mean they're going to be AFC East contenders just yet. London is a 6-foot-4 target who will dominate in the red zone and pull down 50-50 balls to boost Zach Wilson's completion percentage.
The Jets have spent capital on the offensive line in past drafts but the unit is still not to the level it needs to be. And if they want to continue to develop second-year quarterback Zach Wilson, they need to continue to solidify the offensive line.
Evan Neal will be able to play either right or left tackle, which will allow for the Jets to find the best offensive line combination on game day. Hopefully, they perform at a higher level than what they did in the past.
The Jets continue to make this draft about Wilson. With their first pick, they drafted an offensive tackle to help protect him. And with this pick, they select receiver Chris Olave.
Olave has shown to have the speed to run past defenders and become a big-play threat. This should pair up well with Wilson, who is waiting for the opportunity to throw the ball to a legit deep threat who can make spectacular plays down the field.
I prefer Ekwonu but the Jets likely view this pick as a starting right tackle with the option to be a failsafe if Mekhi Becton can't bounce back and/or stay healthy.
Some Jets reporters have suggested they won't take a cornerback but I think they'd have to take a long, hard look at "Sauce" with the 10th pick if he fell this far.
Despite his slower-than-expected 40-yard dash, Hamilton is still one of the most explosive athletes in the class, and he combines supreme length with fantastic eyes in coverage.
The 6-foot-4, 220-pounder was a true playmaker at Notre Dame and should be the same in the NFL. He totaled 22 combined pass breakups and interceptions in his three-year college career, and only five Power Five safeties recorded more than 15 over that span.
10. George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue
Karlaftis defines power. He pairs that power with some of the best hand usage in the class and an explosive get-off that makes life tough on opposing offensive tackles.
The 6-foot-4, 275-pounder showed a lot of promise as an underclassman and maximized his full potential as a true junior, displayed by his 90.6 pass-rush grade this season.
The Jets need pass-rushers. Carl Lawson will return after tearing his Achilles in training camp last season, but they need more talent and depth. The franchise hasn't had a player reach double-digit sacks since Muhammad Wilkerson in 2015.
Pairing Thibodeaux alongside Lawson gives the Jets a formidable tandem moving forward.
General manager Joe Douglas is one of the most tight-lipped executives in the league -- basically, pay attention to his actions rather than his quotes. After making an aggressive move for Tyreek Hill, it's clear that he wants a high-end receiver on the roster. Wilson brings ability reminiscent of Stefon Diggs when he came out of Maryland.
Walker is something of a tweener, which is odd to say about someone who stands 6-foot-5, and weighs 275 pounds. But he can line up as a 3, 4 or 5-tech and that versatility, coupled with his non-stop motor and consistent playmaking ability, makes him an attractive option for any team looking to bolster their defensive line. Walker's stock has skyrocketed during the pre-draft process and he's just scratching the surface on how good could he can be. He has flashed on tape, but he also played on a Georgia defense that could end up with 4-5 first-round picks, and his combine performance -- a 4.51 40, a vertical of 35.5 inches and a mind-boggling 3-cone of 6.89 seconds -- only reminded people of why he has a chance to be special.
10. Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
Penning plays with an edge and the sole intent is to prove any remaining doubters wrong. He had a strong season and a dominant-at-times Senior Bowl week, and he could end up going in the top half of the first round when all is said and done.
The Bucs are another team that could take a guard in Round 1, but I see a fit with Wyatt, who could take Ndamukong Suh's spot next to Vita Vea. Wyatt played mostly as a 3-technique tackle for the Bulldogs, but he could play end in a 3-4 defense, too. He wasn't a super productive pass-rusher (2.5 sacks last season), but he has the physical tools that coordinators will want to mold. Cornerback could be a possibility for Tampa Bay as well.
With the return of Tom Brady, the Buccaneers are back in win-now mode. Brady and the front office have done a good job re-signing/acquiring enough weapons for the offense, so I believe they decide to address the defense with this pick.
The Buccaneers draft CB Kaiir Elam, a long, athletic corner who ran a sub-4.4s 40-yard dash, showing how explosive he is. Elam has NFL pedigree and should be a plug-and-play starter for Tampa Bay.
The big (6-5, 333), long and disruptive Jones should step quickly into the void left by Ndamukong Suh's departure to help Tampa maintain its defensive standards.
Taking Jordan Davis to slot in alongside Vita Vea would take Tampa's run defense to another level. It's no secret that the 6-foot-6, 341-pounder is a freaky athlete, and he projects as a high-level run-stuffer at the next level.
Davis earned an 89.2 run-defense grade while collecting 47 run stops and 17 tackles for loss or no gain over the last three years. He missed just four of his 75 tackle attempts against the run over that span.
The problem is that Davis is far from a refined pass-rusher and not an every-down player. He played just over a third of the team's snaps this past season and turned in a lackluster 69.0 pass-rush grade for the season.
Run-stuffing interior defensive linemen are valuable pieces in the NFL, but Davis' ceiling will only be so high if this playstyle remains. For that reason, Davis comes off the board late in Round 1 for me.
Ali Marpet's retirement was surprising, but the team quickly moved to acquire Shaq Mason. The Bucs still have a need at the other guard spot, though. At 6-foot-4, 323 pounds, Green is a sturdy option who played all five positions up front during his career with the Aggies.
He has the strength, awareness and physical traits necessary to immediately step into an NFL role.
Hill is part of a Wolverines defense that could end up seeing three players go in Round 1 next spring. He's underrated nationally but watch him play and it becomes clear pretty quickly that he's in the running for one of the best defensive backs in this class. He's listed as a safety but he can line up anywhere.
The Chargers need a right tackle, but with Trevor Penning off the board, I don't feel great about the value here. In fact, my next tackle in this mock doesn't go off the board until No. 42. Let's move instead to another need for L.A. and fill it with Davis, who at 6-foot-6 and 341 pounds is used to being a hole-filler. He has unique physical tools for his size, and he makes everyone around him better because of the space he eats. This is how Brandon Staley's defense can level up in 2022.
I know the Chargers have two really good receivers but they play in the AFC West where they are going to need to score even more points. To help Justin Herbert do that, they draft USC receiver Drake London, who I believe has inside/outside versatility and should fit in well with a Chargers offense that likes to move their receivers to different alignments to dictate matchups.
This could be a trade-in spot for someone else if tackles fly off the board at a quicker rate than projected. Otherwise, Penning is an easy plug-and-play option for the Chargers.
And the Chargers promptly take a different offensive lineman anyway.
[Comments from previous pick: "Moving up in early April to snipe the Chargers on an OL is pretty absurd, but here we are. Losing Terron Armstead means the Saints need to reload at the position."]
The thought of Justin Herbert slinging deep bombs to Williams -- one of the fastest pass-catchers in this class -- is far too enticing to pass up.
While the Alabama receiver tore his ACL in their National Championship Game, he is expected to be ready to go around the start of training camp. He earned an 85.1 receiving grade in his lone season with the Crimson Tide after transferring over from Ohio State, and he also racked up an FBS-leading 12 20-plus-yard touchdowns.
A receiver here could be a possibility, but protecting Justin Herbert is more valuable. After cutting Bryan Bulaga, the only right tackles on the roster are Storm Norton and Foster Sarell.
The Chargers struck gold with left tackle Rashawn Slater in Round 1 last season, and general manager Tom Telesco could get his right tackle of the future in Penning, who brings a tone-setting presence to the line.
Green can play outside or inside and at Texas A&M he lined up against some of the best defensive linemen and edge rushers in the country. The Chargers could go either tackle or guard here -- they have needs at both positions, but with four tackles already off the board, Green makes sense here.
I'm going to stick with this prediction because ... who is Marcus Mariota going to throw to next season? The Falcons just don't have any starting-caliber receivers. Wilson can run every route and beat defenders after the catch. He could be the early favorite for rookie of the year if he lands here -- he'd get a bunch of targets. Atlanta will likely be tracking the edge rushers closely, but there isn't value at this point on my board.
The Falcons seem to be where no franchise wants to be: no man's land. They traded Matt Ryan after the pursuit of Deshaun Watson and now their starting quarterback seems to be Marcus Mariota.
With this pick, I think the Falcons decide to begin this rebuild by simply taking the best man available and selecting edge rusher Jermaine Johnson. Johnson is a high-motor player that showed that he can both be a dominant run defender and also be a double-digit sack guy.
The Falcons will likely shop this pick, as they have an abundance of needs, but they must come away with a wideout either way -- and the earlier, the better.
Malik Willis would be spicy here but the Matt Ryan trade really signals Atlanta's need to do a full-blown rebuild. What makes Williams particularly interesting is the Falcons could get Calvin Ridley back after his suspension and suddenly have a loaded WR room once again as Williams moves further away from his ACL injury (ACLs aren't problems for NFL teams anymore, either).
Arthur Smith's offense is a dream fit for Ridder, the most NFL-ready quarterback in this class.
The Cincinnati product displayed high-level processing and flawlessly executed the Bearcats' pure passing concepts this past season. He got through his progressions, consistently finding the right receiver, and had nine games without a turnover-worthy play this past season -- the best mark in the FBS.
Ridder also ranked third among the top seven quarterback prospects in accurate-pass percentage on throws beyond the line of scrimmage. So, while it may not be perfect, his accuracy is not a liability.
Ridder has risen up NFL boards into the first-round conversation after lighting up the Senior Bowl and combine, and he's my top prospect at the position.
The Falcons need talent at nearly every position across the board. General manager Terry Fontenot could focus instead on taking the best prospect available. The 6-foot-4, 220-pound Hamilton brings a tremendous skill set to the defensive backfield. He can be a playmaker and tone-setter for Atlanta.
The Falcons replaced Matt Ryan with Marcus Mariota, so it stands to reason they could be in the market for a QB here since Mariota last started a game in 2019. But the WR position is in dire need of some upgrades and Wilson, who is our WR1, is a top-10 player all day long. His game reminds us of Odell Beckham Jr., and Atlanta may need to target several wideouts in this draft to restock a depleted unit.
