Sunday, December 31, 2017

Week 17 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Yanotchko)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are Dan Yanotchko's Week 17 NFL picks against the spread:

Indianapolis Colts -6 over Houston Texans (3 units)

Usually in these Week 17 games, I am looking for the teams that really need the win going up against teams that have their car engines running in the parking lot. This game just really boils down to who Indianapolis has to line up, versus who the Texans do not. The Texans have been decimated by the injury bug this year, and they will sideline their All-World wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins for the rest of the year. For an offense that can't get anything really going under T.J. Yates, they are missing the only real offensive threat. The Texans have also been really bad against the pass as they allow 246 yards per game and 29 touchdowns on the year. This will be one final send off in a positive way for Colts coach Chuck Pagano, as I don't see Houston bringing much offense to bear.

Buffalo Bills -2.5 over Miami Dolphins (3 units)

In yet another just-have-to-have-it game, the Bills need this win to have any hope of making the playoffs. The Dolphins cannot make the playoffs, Jay Cutler is headed for the broadcast booth, and it just seems to me that Buffalo will be the desperate team here. The Bills will be able to exploit a weak Miami secondary that allows 228 yards passing per game, and 25 touchdowns per year through the air. Also they will be able to control the clock with LeSean McCoy, as the Miami rush defense allows 109 yards per game and 4.1 yards per carry. Even though it may be hard for a cold-weather team to play in Miami in December, the Bills just need this game more.

New Orleans Saints -5.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3 units)

In yet another have-to-have-it game, the Saints get to finish up against a disappointing Buccaneers team that should have challenged for the NFC South title this year. The good news is that the Buccaneers aren't cleaning house just yet, as they have brought back head coach Dirk Koetter for another year. The problem with Tampa Bay is that they have one of the worst defenses in the league, as they allow opposing quarterbacks 263 yards passing per game and a 67% opposing completion percentage as well. The Bucs are also very generous against the run as well, as they let opposing backs average 119 yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry. I feel that Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara and Drew Brees will just be too much to handle this week, and the Saints will use this win to secure the NFC South crown.
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Week 17 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Beazley)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are Sean Beazley's Week 17 NFL picks against the spread:

Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 over Cleveland Browns (4 units)

Let’s face it, the Steelers have no chance to wrap up home-field advantage throughout the playoffs because there is no way the Jets beat New England. The No. 2 seed is locked up, so I could see a bunch of people resting here. That being said, they will still hammer the Browns at home. Tomlin will want momentum heading into the playoffs. Steelers 30, Browns 17.

New England Patriots -15 over New York Jets (4 units)

This game won’t be close. I believe the Pats will have this covered by mid way through the 2nd quarter. I love Tom Brady this week for DFS as well. I think he has sneaky massive upside. Pats 44, Jets 16.

Tennessee Titans -2.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars (3 units)

As a Titans fan, a loss here would not be so bad. The team would collapse in missing the playoffs, and it could likely be the end of the Mike Mularkey era, which would be a godsend. With the amount of weapons this offense has, this team should not be struggling the way it is now. The loss of DeMarco Murray is huge, as it finally gives Derrick Henry a chance to shine. I think the Titans are able to pull this one off in an ugly low-scoring battle. Titans 17, Jags 13.
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Saturday, December 30, 2017

Week 17 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are John Trifone's Week 17 NFL picks against the spread:

Buffalo Bills -2.5 over Miami Dolphins (4 units)

Week 17 is always tricky but the Bills have everything to play for while the Dolphins have nothing to play for. The Bills are the better team anyway so even as a small road favorite, I think the extra motivation will help them get the win.

Los Angeles Chargers -7 over Oakland Raiders (4 units)

Another game with one team motivated while the other is not. The Chargers winning streak ended two weeks ago at Kansas City, but they won again last week, and still have a chance to get in the playoffs. If they don’t get in, I don’t think it will be because of a loss to Oakland. I like San Diego to win this one easily.
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Week 17 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Hanson)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are my Week 17 NFL picks against the spread:

New Orleans Saints -5.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3 units)

The Panthers and Saints head into Week 17 with identical 11-4 records and a pair of playoff berths already clinched. Who wins the division and hosts a playoff game next weekend is yet to be settled, however. Since the Saints swept the Panthers in the regular season, they would control their own destiny on Sunday with a win in Tampa.

Although Jameis Winston left the game early, the Saints took care of business against the Bucs earlier in the season with a 30-10 win at home. Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram combined for 231 yards from scrimmage in that first matchup and I expect the dynamic duo to have another big day. On the season, each back has more than 1,400 yards from scrimmage with 12 touchdowns.

- Related: Favorite Week 17 DraftKings Plays

Baltimore Ravens -9.5 over Cincinnati Bengals (2 units)

Leading the NFL in takeaways (33) and turnover differential (+17), the Ravens are playing great defense. On the other hand, the Bengals have just 13 takeaways -- only the Browns (11) have fewer. When these two teams met in the opener, the Ravens won 20-0 in Cincinnati as Andy Dalton threw a quartet of interceptions and lost a fumble. While he may not turn it over five times this week, I'm going with another team that controls their own destiny as the Ravens are in the playoffs with a win.

Seattle Seahawks -9 over Arizona Cardinals (1 unit)

Not in full control of their playoff destiny, the Seahawks need to win in order to get in. With both Seattle and Atlanta sharing identical 9-6 records and Atlanta beating Seattle earlier in the season, the Falcons get in with a win and/or Seattle loss. Playing at home with the 12th man, the Seahawks may do some scoreboard watching, but I like Russell Wilson at home in a must-win spot.

Minnesota Vikings -12 over Chicago Bears (3 units)

A win for the Vikings guarantees a first-round bye as they have a chance at something historic as no team has won the Super Bowl in their home stadium. A first-round bye would be a first step. That said, the Vikings beat the Saints and lost to the Panthers this season, so they could miss out on a first-round bye if they lose and the Panthers win the NFC South. The Vikings barely beat the Bears earlier this season (20-17), but I expect the outcome to more lopsided this time around. I'll give the 12.

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DFS Round Table: Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 17

Every week of the 2017 NFL season, our contributors will provide their favorite DraftKings play of the week and share their thoughts in our weekly DFS Round Table post.

In some cases, the play is intended for tournaments (i.e., Guaranteed Prize Pools or GPPs); in other cases, it's for cash games (e.g., head-to-heads and 50-50's). Or both.

Who is your favorite DraftKings play for Week 17?

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Brendan Donahue: Malcolm Brown, RB, Los Angeles Rams ($3,900)

I'm sticking to the theme of finding undervalued featured backs. The Rams have announced that they will sit several starters including Todd Gurley so that should mean that Brown will fill his role. While there isn't a great sample size to support Brown in a featured back role, he has had double-digit carries three times this year and has averaged over four yards per carry when given that larger role. He also gets the 31st-ranked defense against opposing RBs in the 49ers this week so at just $3,900, he is certainly someone I will have in most lineups this weekend.

Kevin Hanson: Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints ($7,900 and $7,500)

The dynamic duo of Ingram and Kamara have combined for nearly 3,000 yards from scrimmage this season and both Ingram (1,486) and Kamara (1,426) have eclipsed the 1,400-yard mark on the year. In addition, both RBs have exactly 12 touchdowns and more than 50 receptions. Controlling their own destiny for the division title, Kamara and Ingram are 1-2 in my Week 17 running back rankings and given the value plays available elsewhere, it's not too cost-prohibitive to build lineups around these studs.

John Trifone: Brandon Oliver, RB, Los Angeles Chargers ($4,000)

Obviously Week 17 we will need to monitor news much more than usual. Many good plays will likely open up later in the week, but there’s one lock play we know of early on, and that’s Brandon Oliver. Melvin Gordon is in a walking boot with a high-ankle sprain and Austin Ekelar is out for the year. The Chargers will be playing for a playoff spot and Oliver should get the vast majority of RB touches. Oliver figures to be pretty highly owned but for good reason.

[Editor's note: John submitted his pick early in the week and MG3 seems more likely to play on Saturday.]

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Sunday, December 24, 2017

Week 16 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Beazley)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are Sean Beazley's Week 16 NFL picks against the spread:

Tennessee Titans +6.5 over Los Angeles Rams (5 units)

The Titans haven’t lost at home since Week 1 vs. the Raiders. Had this game been in L.A., I would pound the other side; but not in Nashville, and not with a playoff berth on the line. I also believe Mike Mularkey is coaching for his job, as there has been a lot of backlash over decisions he and his staff (mainly OC Terry Robiske) have made. I am a homer, but I love this spot getting almost a TD. I think the Titans win outright and I will have some on the money line as well. Titans 27, Rams 23.

Jacksonville Jaguars -4.5 over San Francisco 49ers (5 units)

Jimmy G, meet a real NFL defense. If you told me that the Jags would be where they are now at the start of the season, I would have laughed in your face. This team is going to be extremely dangerous in the playoffs, especially with Blake Bortles playing well. Jaguars defense is too much. Jags 26, 49ers 16.

Cardinals vs. Giants, Over 39.5 (5 units)

This is one of my favorite games to target in GPPs this week in daily fantasy sports (DFS), especially in the late 4 PM slate as everyone will be targeting the Dallas/Seattle game. I think there are going to be a lot of points scored in this one and my bold prediction is this game goes over by 20 points. Cardinals 31, Giants 28.
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Saturday, December 23, 2017

Week 16 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Yanotchko)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are Dan Yanotchko's Week 16 NFL picks against the spread:

Seattle Seahawks +5 over Dallas Cowboys (4 units)

I am always a fan of the gotta-have-it games in Weeks 15, 16 and 17, and this game is pretty much an elimination game for a NFC Wild Card spot although both teams will still need help. The Cowboys are getting a major boost by getting Ezekiel Elliott back after his six-game suspension, and I don't think they will be thrusting him into full action with 25-plus touches here. I look for Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin to have monster games this week, as Dallas allows 230 passing yards per game and 26 touchdowns through the air. The Seahawks will be more than able to stay with Dallas, as the Cowboys secondary has been really bad this year, and I expect more of the same here. When in doubt, take the points.

Atlanta Falcons +5.5 over New Orleans Saints (3 units)

It really has been the year of the underdog, and again with the division title still up for grabs and a shot to make the playoffs, this game is everything for Atlanta. The Falcons have actually done quite well against the Saints in recent history, as they have gone 3-1 straight up in their last four matchups. The Falcons also have the ability to blunt the Saints vaunted rushing attack, as they allow 106 yards rushing per game, ninth-best in the league. Again, this is a gotta-have-it game, and even if New Orleans pulls away, the Falcons have quite the offensive firepower for the junk back-door cover. In a tight division game with Atlanta needing this win in the worst way, give me the 5.5.

Jacksonville Jaguars -4.5 over San Francisco 49ers (3 units)

Everyone has been impressed with the recent resurgence of the 49ers, after they have decided to start golden boy QB Jimmy Garoppolo, and he certainly hasn't disappointed as of yet. The one problem that Jimmy G. will have this week is the best passing defense in the league coming to town. The Jaguars have been downright stingy to opposing quarterbacks this year, as they only allow 169 yards passing per game, and only 14 touchdowns as well. They also have acquired the nickname Sacksonville, as they have also compiled a league-leading 51 sacks on the year. The Jags also need this game, as they actually have a shot for a bye or the No. 2 seed. I will take them on the road, as running the football and defense always travels well.
- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

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Week 16 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Hanson)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are my Week 16 NFL picks against the spread:

Los Angeles Chargers -6.5 over New York Jets (2 units)

Traveling across the country and playing early doesn't necessarily bode well for the Bolts, but they are clearly the better team especially with Josh McCown on IR. Philip Rivers may not have Hunter Henry, but there is no shortage of weapons for him with Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, etc.

If the playoffs were to start today, the Chargers would be out but they are only one game behind both the Titans (5th seed) and Bills (6th seed). As big underdogs on Sunday, it's possible that both the Titans and Bills lose and the Chargers all go into Week 17 with identical 8-7 records. In addition, they still have a chance at the division as the Chiefs are also 8-6. I'll give the points here in a game that matters much more to the Chargers.

Buffalo Bills +11.5 over New England Patriots (2 units)

Perhaps it's foolish to pick against Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots at home, but I think they win a game that's closer than the spread suggests. The Bills are currently in as the last seed in the AFC playoffs and a loss could allow other teams in as the Ravens are likely to win their Saturday matchup as two-TD favorites over the Colts and have an identical record. Even though the Bills will come up short in terms of an outright victory, I'll take the points here.

Saints vs. Falcons, Under 52.5 (2 units)

In a matchup between Drew Brees and Matt Ryan, there certainly could be plenty of offense. These two teams have played each other once already this month and the outcome was 20-17 in favor of Atlanta. While I expect more than 37 points, both teams rank top-10 in scoring defense as they each allow 20.1 points per game.

Washington Redskins -3.5 over Denver Broncos (1 unit)

Both teams have already been eliminated from the playoffs so I think it's easier to get home for a meaningless game on Christmas Eve when you're playing in front of your home fans compared to traveling across the country. The Broncos have played better recently with back-to-back wins over the Jets and Colts, but I don't have a ton of confidence in Denver's offense whether it's Brock Osweiler or Paxton Lynch as the starter.

- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

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Friday, December 22, 2017

DFS Round Table: Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 16

Every week of the 2017 NFL season, our contributors will provide their favorite DraftKings play of the week and share their thoughts in our weekly DFS Round Table post.

In some cases, the play is intended for tournaments (i.e., Guaranteed Prize Pools or GPPs); in other cases, it's for cash games (e.g., head-to-heads and 50-50's). Or both.

Who is your favorite DraftKings play for Week 16?

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Brendan Donahue: Jarvis Landry, WR, Miami Dolphins ($6,300)

In a year that has been filled with inconsistent performances from most players on a weekly basis, one of the most consistent players on the year has been Jarvis Landry. He has scored double digits on DraftKings every week except for one. In that week, he even had 12 targets but managed only 33 yards as his team was shut out by the Ravens. This week he gets the Chiefs who have given up the most fantasy points to opposing WRs so he should have a rather high floor this week along with high upside.

John Trifone: Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers ($6,400)

CMac is coming off a good game, and I expect he’ll build on that this week with a soft matchup against the Tampa defense. Carolina is a big home favorite and McCaffrey should get some solid usage. I like his upside a lot here and his price tag is very reasonable given his floor and his ceiling.

Dan Yanotchko: Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers ($6,400)

McCaffrey has an excellent matchup against the Buccaneers. McCaffrey's splits have been decent over the last four as he’s averaged 46 yards rushing and 40 yards receiving with 16 receptions and two touchdowns. He gets a Bucs defense that allows opposing rushers 119.6 yards per game, 4.4 yards per carry, and 15 touchdowns on the year. Carolina will lean on him heavily.

Kevin Hanson: JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers ($6,400)

Smith-Schuster has scored 20-plus DK points in three of his last five games including Sunday's game against the Patriots when Antonio Brown left early with a calf injury. Favored by nearly double digits, Le'Veon Bell will be in for another typical huge game, of course. For the receivers, however, Smith-Schuster could/should see double-digit targets with 30-point upside against the Texans, one of the league's most generous defenses to opposing wide receivers this season.

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Wednesday, December 20, 2017

Week 16 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are John Trifone's Week 16 NFL picks against the spread:

Tennessee Titans +7 over Los Angeles Rams (4 Units)

I picked against the Titans last week at San Francisco and still think they are overrated. However, there’s a couple reasons I like them this week. The Rams are coming off a monstrous win at Seattle that nobody saw coming. They clearly had something to prove and got up for that game.

Traveling to Tennessee this week could be a classic let-down. Tennessee, on the other hand, suffered a devastating loss to drop to 8-6, and damaging their playoff hopes. They will play like a desperate team, and getting a full touchdown at home, I like the Titans with the points.

Cleveland Browns +6.5 over Chicago Bears (4 Units)

Chicago should not be favored by close to a touchdown against anyone in the league. The Browns are still looking for their first win of the year, and I expect them to play with some professional pride at Chicago. They’ve come close a few times. I like them to get the job done this week and get the outright win here.

Buffalo Bills +12 over New England Patriots (3 Units)

If the playoffs started today, Buffalo would be in as the sixth seed. It’s going to come down to the wire with the Bills, Titans, Ravens and Chargers vying for two spots. Beating New England on the road is a pretty tall order, and I don’t think they’ll do it, but I do think they can make it a game. I will take the Bills with the points.

- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

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Sunday, December 17, 2017

Week 15 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Beazley)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are Sean Beazley's Week 15 NFL picks against the spread:

Buffalo Bills -3.5 over Miami Dolphins (4 units)

I love the Bills at home this week. Miami is just off a great win in prime time vs. the Patriots and this is a prime let-down spot on the road at a very difficult venue. I believe LeSean McCoy eats this week in a win; and Bills D shuts down Miami. Bills 27, Dolphins 12.

Tennessee Titans +1.5 over San Francisco 49ers (5 units)

While many will say the Titans defense is one to target, their numbers are skewed from two large blowout losses vs. Houston and Pittsburgh. With the playoffs in sight, I think Tennessee comes up big with a win. Titans 26, 49ers 17.
- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

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Week 15 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Hanson)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are my Week 15 NFL picks against the spread:

Seattle Seahawks -1 over Los Angeles Rams (3 units)

Going into their Week 15 matchup, the Rams have a one-game lead over the Seahawks. Provided the Seahawks win, however, it's like two wins. In other words, they will own the tie-breaker over the Rams since they also won their matchup earlier this season and control their destiny in terms of the division. As well as Russell Wilson has played this season, I will take the Seahawks at home in what is essentially a pick'em.

Raiders vs. Cowboys, Over 45.5 (2 units)

Offensively, the Cowboys had struggled without Ezekiel Elliott, but they have played much better over the past two weeks by scoring 38 and 30 points, respectively. Meanwhile, Derek Carr and the Raiders have been huge disappointments this season as they go into Week 15 with a losing record and they will be without Amari Cooper. That said, both teams still rank in the top-12 in the league in yards per offensive play and the bottom half of the league in yards per play allowed. I expect both teams to be able to move the ball and put up some points, enough at least to exceed the total.

- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

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Week 15 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are John Trifone's Week 15 NFL picks against the spread:
Buffalo Bills -3.5 over Miami Dolphins (5 units)

Miami is coming off winning their Super Bowl over the Patriots on Monday night. They now have a short week to go on the road to Buffalo, who has everything to play for to try and sneak in the playoffs. I expect a big letdown spot, or really just a return to form, from Miami, so I think the Bills cruise here.

Seattle Seahawks -1 over Los Angeles Rams (4 units)

Russell Wilson has been on fire and is likely the league MVP at this point in the season. Seattle is typically very good at home and this is a must-win for them. The Rams are a tough team but I think the Seahawks win this one by a field goal or more.

San Francisco 49ers -2 over Tennessee Titans (5 units)

It’s not often you see a three-win team favored over an eight-win team, but the line reflects how bad the Titans are, even at 8-5. I was high on them going into the year, but Marcus Mariota has been a disappointment and the play calling has not played to their strengths. Jimmy G looks like he could be the guy for San Francisco. The offense has had some trouble scoring touchdowns, but they’ve been moving the ball well. I like the Niners to win this one and give a big hit to the Titans playoff chances.
- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

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Saturday, December 16, 2017

Week 15 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Yanotchko)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are Dan Yanotchko's Week 15 NFL picks against the spread:

New Orleans Saints -16.5 over New York Jets (4 units)

The Jets gave the 2017 campaign a valiant effort, but in the end we always knew that they are the same old Jets. The Saints really need this game badly to keep pace with the Panthers, as they have lost two of their last three games overall. The Jets have been really bad on defense this year, as they have allowed 116.9 yards per game on the ground and 4.1 yards per carry. They have also been woefully bad against the pass, as they allow 230 yards per game, and 25 touchdowns as well.

The Jets have lost Josh McCown, head coach Todd Bowles has suspended Muhammad Wilkerson a game for missing a meeting, and the Saints have one of the best offenses in the league. New Orleans has to win this one, and will pile on the points, as Bryce Petty and the Jets will be unable to move the ball at all on offense.

Tennessee Titans +2 over San Francisco 49ers (4 units)

This is another case of a team just having to the win game, as the Titans really need this one to stay with Jacksonville for the division title. The 49ers have looked great with Jimmy Garoppolo under center, and they are starting to move the ball well on offense. The only problem is that San Francisco just has not been that great on defense this year, as they allow opposing rushers 121.3 yards per game. The 49ers have also been very generous to opposing quarterbacks as well, as they allow 231 yards passing per game, 23 touchdowns, and they have only picked off opposing quarterbacks seven times. I just see too much ball control with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry, and Marcus Mariota will be able to exploit this secondary. Titans need this game, and getting points? Yes, please.

New England Patriots -3 over Pittsburgh Steelers (3 units)

This is certainly the game of the week, and perhaps the worst thing that could have happened to Pittsburgh was New England playing horribly in Miami last week, as they will be laser-focused for this game. The Patriots have great past history against the Steelers, as they have won five of their last six dating back to 2010, and they have outscored Pittsburgh 185-126 in those games. The Patriots have also beaten Pittsburgh by at least a touchdown in those games, as Tom Brady just completely shreds the Pittsburgh cover 2 defense. New England will be attacking Pittsburgh with their running backs often, as the Steelers allow 69 receptions and 609 yards passing to opposing teams' running backs. With the trio of James White, Rex Burkhead and Dion Lewis plus the return of Rob Gronkowski is too much for Pittsburgh, who allowed 269 passing yards to Joe Flacco last week. Pittsburgh is a great team, but they just don't matchup well with New England.
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Thursday, December 14, 2017

DFS Round Table: Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 15

Every week of the 2017 NFL season, our contributors will provide their favorite DraftKings play of the week and share their thoughts in our weekly DFS Round Table post.

In some cases, the play is intended for tournaments (i.e., Guaranteed Prize Pools or GPPs); in other cases, it's for cash games (e.g., head-to-heads and 50-50's). Or both.

Who is your favorite DraftKings play for Week 15?

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John Trifone: Dede Westbrook, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,100)

Westbrook is a stud, and he’s becoming more involved in the Jags offense. This week, they get a weak Houston secondary and I like Westbrook to be heavily involved. He has 27 targets over the last three weeks and caught his first touchdown pass in a big win over Seattle last week. At $5,100, he’s still underpriced when you consider both his floor and his ceiling, and I expect in the coming weeks, his price on DK will continue to rise.

Brendan Donahue: Mike Davis, RB, Seattle Seahawks ($4,000)

While I'll be the first to admit he disappointed last week, I'm going back to Mike Davis this week. He still fits the narrative that overall has been successful this season: a featured back for less than $5K. He again comes at a discounted price of just $4,000, most likely because he put up only 7.5 points last week. However, he still proved that he was the lead back with 15 carries for 66 yards; he just wasn't able to get into the end zone, which would have made it a very solid day at just $3,700. This week he gets the 29th-ranked defense to opposing fantasy running backs this season so there is a much better likelihood that he adds a touchdown to his already consistent rushing numbers.

Kevin Hanson: Kenyan Drake, RB, Miami Dolphins ($5,800)

In his past two games, Drake has been nothing less than sensational. In those two games, he has carried the ball 48 times for 234 yards and a touchdown and added eight catches for 100 yards on 11 targets. This week, Drake and the Dolphins get a defense that have allowed the second-most DK points to opposing running backs on the year.

Dan Yanotchko: Marqise Lee, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,800)

This week I like Marquise Lee against a pretty bad secondary of the Texans. Lee has emerged as the first option in Jacksonville’s passing game, as he has 27 targets, 17 receptions and a TD in his last four. The Texans give up 242 yards and 24 touchdowns, so even Blake Bortles will have a good day.

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Sunday, December 10, 2017

Week 14 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Hanson)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are my Week 14 NFL picks against the spread:

Carolina Panthers +3 over Minnesota Vikings (3 units)

Ending a four-game winning streak with a tough loss to their division-rival Saints last week, it won't get much easier this week for Cam Newton and the Panthers against the Vikings. As the Vikings look to extend their eight-game winning streak, they haven't lost since Oct. 1st. This should be a closely-fought battle and the Panthers will need to protect Cam better than they did last year (eight sacks), but one of my favorite bets is a small home 'dog so I'll take the Panthers and the points at home.

Denver Broncos +1.5 over New York Jets (3 units)

Speaking of small home 'dogs, I'm going to take the disappointing Broncos as well. Going into the season, some speculated that the Jets could go winless. Before the season began, nobody could have imagined that the Jets would be road favorites in Denver in December. Things are so bad for the Broncos that the Jets haven't been great -- losers of five of their past seven games -- and they're still favored. That said, this is a hunch that the Broncos offense puts up a few points -- enough to pull off the upset.

Indianapolis Colts +3 over Buffalo Bills (2 units)

The good news is that Nathan Peterson should play better than he did in his other start. Of course, he was benched after throwing five first-half interceptions in that one. After a 5-2 start to the season, the Bills have now lost four of five. The Colts haven't been much better as they have lost six of seven, but they have kept most of their games close recently. Not counting last week's 20-point loss, their previous four games included a win and three losses by a combined margin of eight points. I'll take the Colts and the points here.

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Week 14 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Beazley)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are Sean Beazley's Week 14 NFL picks against the spread:

Denver Broncos +1.5 over New York Jets (5 units)

I know it seems like the Broncos have giving up on the season, but this is a game they should absolutely win. I love the Broncos offense in this one in a sneaky spot. Broncos 31, Jets 23.

Seattle Seahawks +2.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars (4 units)

The Jags defense has been elite this year, no doubt, but if you look at the list of QBs they have shut down, it’s not exactly an All-Pro list. I will take Russell Wilson with points any day. I believe the Seahawks win this one out right. Seahawks 27, Jaguars 20.


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Saturday, December 9, 2017

Week 14 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Yanotchko)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are Dan Yanotchko's Week 14 NFL picks against the spread:

Dallas Cowboys -3.5 over New York Giants (4 units)

So, the Giants circus has come full circle. They have fired both head coach Ben McAdoo and GM Jerry Reese and have promoted D coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to the interim head coach position. Eli Manning has been named the starter, but the bad news is that the defense still stinks.

The Giants allow opposing quarterbacks to throw for 260 yards per game and have surrendered 23 touchdowns as well. They are not that much better on the ground. Not only have they allowed 4.3 yards per carry, but they given up a league-worst 130.7 rushing yards per game.

This should be another huge Alfred Morris day as the Cowboys can keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Even at home with Eli given back the starting job, it won't be enough for the Giants here.

Green Bay Packers -3 over Cleveland Browns (4 units)

In yet another front-office circus, the Browns have replaced GM Sashi Brown with John Dorsey to make all of those draft picks they have accumulated. Not only do the Packers have a faint whiff of playoff hopes, but they just may get Aaron Rodgers back next week as well.

The Browns don't have bad numbers on defense (total defense) compared to scoring defense as DeShone Kizer has been a turnover machine. The Browns have allowed 230 passing yards per game, a 67.7% completion percentage, and 23 passing touchdowns on the year. Also, they have given up nine rushing touchdowns as well. So, 32 touchdowns in 13 weeks is simply not good.

I know the Packers are banged up on offense, but they still have some good weapons with Davante Adams and Jamaal Williams, and I just don't think Cleveland will win a game all year.

Baltimore Ravens +4.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers (3 units)

Pretty brutal schedule for the Steelers, as they had a physical rival in the Bengals on Monday night, their ultimate rival in the Ravens this weekend, and then the Patriots are coming to town following this weekend. The Ravens haven't really done much well on offense all year, but that is ok as their defense has been carrying them the whole way.

The Ravens will have the tools to be able to slow down the Pittsburgh passing attack, as they only allow opposing quarterbacks to throw for 59.1%, and only a measly 199 yards per game. The Ravens have also had great success against the Steelers as of late, as they have gone 4-1-1 in their last six against the spread. This is a game that the Steelers will be looking past, as they have certainly circled the Patriots on the calendar. I just like the 4.5 points in a game that is always close and hard-fought between these two clubs.

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Week 14 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are John Trifone's Week 14 NFL picks against the spread:

Chicago Bears +6.5 over Cincinnati Bengals (3 Units)

The Bears defense has actually been decent this year, and the Bengals have been one of the more disappointing teams this season. Coming off a tough loss to the Steelers, I don’t see Cincinnati getting up for this game. Chicago should be able to keep this one closer than the 6.5 line.

Kansas City Chiefs -4 over Oakland Raiders (5 Units)

With the way Kansas City has fallen off after a hot start to the season, I'm a little uncomfortable with how much I love the Chiefs in this spot. Maybe it’s because of how much I’ve seen of Oakland this year, who didn’t deserve the win last week over the Geno Smith-led 2-10 Giants at home. How the Raiders are 6-6 is beyond me, but there’s no doubt in my mind they are significantly worse than Kansas City. Even with the division rivalry, I will be surprised if the Chiefs don’t dominate this game from start to finish. Proceed at your own risk, but this is my favorite line on the board.

Carolina Panthers +3 over Minnesota Vikings (3 Units)

Minnesota has been consistently great this year, while the Panthers have been a little more up and down even though they’re 8-4. The Vikings are coming off a huge win at Atlanta this past week, but it’s tough to keep beating good teams on the road. I’m not as confident that the Panthers win outright, but I do feel good with the points. This could be a 21-20 game. I’ll take Cam Newton to cover in Carolina here.


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Thursday, December 7, 2017

DFS Round Table: Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 14

Every week of the 2017 NFL season, our contributors will provide their favorite DraftKings play of the week and share their thoughts in our weekly DFS Round Table post.

In some cases, the play is intended for tournaments (i.e., Guaranteed Prize Pools or GPPs); in other cases, it's for cash games (e.g., head-to-heads and 50-50's). Or both.

Who is your favorite DraftKings play for Week 14?

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Kevin Hanson: Giovani Bernard, RB, Cincinnati Bengals ($3,100)

This one is contingent on the health of Joe Mixon, who sustained a concussion on Monday night. If Mixon isn't cleared on a short week, the Bengals, who had placed Jeremy Hill on IR earlier this season, will rely almost exclusively on Bernard out of the backfield. Bernard had a season-high 15 touches and 96 yards from scrimmage last week. At a bargain salary of just $3,100, Gio provides plenty of salary-cap relief and flexibility for the rest of your lineup.

John Trifone: Josh Gordon, WR, Cleveland Browns ($5,500)

Gordon will certainly be popular this week after getting 11 targets in his first week back. Casey Hayward called him his toughest cover all year. This week, Gordon will get the weak secondary of Green Bay, and for just $5,500, he should exceed value with a chance to crush it.

Brendan Donahue: Mike Davis, RB, Seattle Seahawks ($3,700)

I'm going to continue my recent theme of finding featured backs that are cheaper than $5,000. It's worked really well lately as evidence by Joe Mixon's 28.5 points two weeks ago and Jamaal Williams' 23.3 points last week. This week, we get an even cheaper opportunity with Mike Davis at only $3,700. He got 16 carries in his first game back from injury last week and played 73% of the snaps, proving that he is without a doubt going to be the featured back this week. Granted, they are going up against Jacksonville, but while their defense overall has been very good, they've still allowed the 17th-most points to opposing RBs on the season so Davis is still too good of a value to pass up.

Dan Yanotchko: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals ($6,500)

This week I am going with the ageless target machine Larry Fitzgerald with a great matchup against Tennessee. Fitz has a four-game split of 42 targets, 32 catches, 78.5 yards per game and two touchdowns. That includes a 12-yard game against Jacksonville. The Titans allow 242 yards passing per game, and 22 touchdowns so far, so the Blaine Gabbert-Fitz stack is in play.

Sean Beazley: Trevor Siemien, Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, QB/WR/WR, Denver Broncos ($4,700/$5,000/$4,700)

I was all over Denver this past week and they burned me. I am not going to let that detour me from going back to them this week at home vs. the Jets. I’m going to go heavy with a double stack of Siemien/Sanders/DT. This stack cost less than $15,000 and will allow me to pretty much do whatever I want with the rest of my lineup. I think this stack will go under-owned considering how poor Denver was last week.

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Saturday, December 2, 2017

Week 13 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are John Trifone's Week 13 NFL picks against the spread:

San Francisco 49ers +3 over Chicago Bears (3 units)

I’ll buy into the Jimmy Garappolo hype and take the points here. The Bears offense isn’t very good and I like the quarterback change to give San Francisco a spark.

Denver Broncos -2 over Miami Dolphins (4 units)

Jay Cutler is actually a downgrade from Matt Moore in my opinion and Trevor Semien is back as the Broncos starter. From what we’ve seen of their quarterback situation, he gives the Broncos the best chance to win. I like Denver to end their losing streak at Miami.

New York Giants +9 over Oakland Raiders (4 units)

The way the Giants offense has played, going to Geno Smith over Eli Manning won’t make a huge difference. Oakland should not be favored by nine over anyone in the league with that atrocious secondary. I’ll take the points.
- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

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Week 13 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Hanson)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are my Week 13 NFL picks against the spread:

Seattle Seahawks +5 over Philadelphia Eagles (3 units)

The only 10-win team so far this season, the Eagles go into Seattle as road favorites on Sunday Night Football. The Seahawks have injuries on the defensive side, especially in the secondary, and Carson Wentz is having an MVP-caliber season as a sophomore. Even so, it's tough to go into Century Link Field and leave with a win. So, I'll take Russell Wilson, the Seahawks and points.

Patriots vs. Bills, Over 48.5 (3 units)

Before bouncing back to beat the Chiefs on the road, the Bills had surrendered more than 100 total points in back-to-back games against the Saints and Chargers. So, it wouldn't be surprising if Tom Brady and the Patriots single-handedly went over the 48.5 total this week. Well, I don't expect them to do that, but I think there is a good chance that they put up 30-plus points and do their part. Even though the Patriots have turned their defense around, these two teams have averaged 53.45 combined points per game over their past 11 matchups.

- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

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Week 13 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Yanotchko)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are Dan Yanotchko's Week 13 NFL picks against the spread:

New England Patriots -9 over Buffalo Bills (4 units)

Pretty much one of the things that you can count on during the season is the Patriots domination of the Buffalo Bills. New England has gone 9-1 in the last five seasons against the Bills, and they are also an amazing 11-2 against the number in their last 13. The Bills looked like a playoff contender earlier this year, but after a mistimed quarterback replacement, and the trade of Marcel Dareus has them falling back to earth. The Bills are starting to give up massive chunks of yardage on the ground, as they allow 114 yards per game rushing, 4.1 yards per carry and a league-leading 16 touchdowns to opposing rushers. I'll take Tom Brady giving less than 10 on the road, as you know they are looking to cement the AFC East title and punch their playoff ticket.

Carolina Panthers +5.5 over New Orleans Saints (3 units)

This game is most likely the best game we will have all weekend, so I feel that this game will go down right to the last possession. Yes, the Saints beat the Panthers earlier this year on the road, and they are definitely a better team when they are playing in the Superdome, but Carolina matches up quite well with the Saints. The Panthers have the second best rush defense in the league, as they only allow 83.2 yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry, which is good enough to slow down that two-headed monster of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. Also, the Panthers have a great pass defense that can get after Drew Brees with 32 sacks and they only allow 205 yards passing per game. I feel the Saints should win this one at home, but the 5.5 is just too good to give up in the year of the underdog.

Seattle Seahawks +5 over Philadelphia Eagles (3 units)

Ok, so this game just might be better than the previously mentioned one in Carolina vs. New Orleans, as it will be an interesting test to see how good the Eagles really are. First off they are playing at Seattle in primetime, and say what you want about Seahawks fans, but they certainly bring the noise better than almost any team in the league. The Eagles do have the best rushing defense in the league, but we all know that it is Russell Wilson that really makes the Seahawks go, and just remember he almost pulled that Falcons game out a few weeks ago. The Eagles can be had through the air, as they allow 227 yards passing per game. I have a feeling that Philly will stumble here, as going all the way across the country in primetime as five-point favorites is just a little too much. When in doubt, take the points.
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Week 13 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Beazley)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are Sean Beazley's Week 13 NFL picks against the spread:

Seattle Seahawks +5 over Philadelphia Eagles (5 units)

This very well could be a sneak preview of the NFC Championship Game. While I do think the Eagles are a better team than the Seahawks, winning on the road in Seattle is a very tough thing to do. I’m going to take Russell Wilson and the points here in a game I expect to be a shootout. Seattle 34, Philly 30.

Jacksonville Jaguars -9.5 over Indianapolis Colts (4 units)

If you told me at the beginning of the year I would be betting the Jags as a double-digit favorite, I probably would have laughed at you. This defense dominated Indy in their previous matchup, and there is no reason to believe it won’t happen again. I also think a healthy Leonard Fournette is going to absolutely eat this Sunday. Jaguars 26, Colts 6.

Cincinnati Bengals +5 over Pittsburgh Steelers (4 units)

This is a must-win for the Bengals if they want any chance to make the playoffs. We all know about the Steelers poor play away from home this season, and I think they will struggle in this one. I like the Bengals to win in a closely-fought game. Bengals 23, Steelers 20.
- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

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Thursday, November 30, 2017

DFS Round Table: Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 13

Every week of the 2017 NFL season, our contributors will provide their favorite DraftKings play of the week and share their thoughts in our weekly DFS Round Table post.

In some cases, the play is intended for tournaments (i.e., Guaranteed Prize Pools or GPPs); in other cases, it's for cash games (e.g., head-to-heads and 50-50's). Or both.

Who is your favorite DraftKings play for Week 13?

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John Trifone: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans ($7,300)

Like most, I had a lot of concerns about Hopkins and everyone on the Texans offense when Deshaun Watson got hurt and Tom Savage took over. That concern appears to be justified for the rest of the team, but certainly not for Hopkins. Although moving forward with Savage, his TD expectation is lower, with Houston averaging close to 20 fewer PPG, Hopkins more than makes up for it on volume. He’s averaged 12 targets/game with Savage, who uses Hopkins as a security blanket. He is definitely underpriced at $7,300 and I expect he’ll have appropriately high ownership.

Editor's note: Sign up and receive a 25% initial deposit bonus.

Brendan Donahue: Jamaal Williams, RB, Green Bay Packers ($4,700)

Ever since Aaron Jones went down, the playing time and more importantly the carries have gone up for Williams. In the past three games, he's carried it 20, 18 and 21 times. And last week he added four catches for 69 yards and a TD. I'm using the same theory as I did on Joe Mixon last week (which paid off nicely). If you can find a running back that gets the bulk of the work for under $5K on DraftKings, then you are getting a bargain. While not as talented as Mixon, Williams has the opportunity to have a big week based on volume just like he did last week.

Kevin Hanson: Jared Cook, TE, Oakland Raiders ($5,400)

Like Brendan, I considered listing Williams as well, but I'll go in a different direction for some variety. Coming off a one-catch, one-yard performance, Cook's ownership may be slightly lower than it otherwise would in Week 13. With Michael Crabtree suspended and Amari Cooper (concussion, ankle) iffy, at best, Cook should be more featured this week and his matchup is as good as it gets. No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing tight ends than the Giants, who have allowed a league-most 10 TDs to the position this season.

Dan Yanotchko: Robby Anderson, WR, New York Jets ($6,300)

This week, I am keying in on Robby Anderson of the Jets. Anderson has certainly had lots of volume lately, as his last-four splits are 28 targets, 20 receptions, 383 yards and five touchdowns. Anderson has a great matchup against a Kansas City defense that allows 246 yards passing per game with 17 touchdowns as well. Great mid-level guy with lots of upside this week.

Sean Beazley: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans ($7,300)

This comes as no shock, but I’m picking Texans WR Deandre Hopkins at $7,300 vs. the Titans. This might be the third or fourth time I have recommended this play, and it usually does not let me down. The loss of Deshaun Watson was huge for this Texans offense, but Hopkins' targets really haven’t gone down as much. He had a great game vs. a very good Ravens secondary last week, and the Titans can definitely be beat through the air. Hopkins will be a staple of my cash lineup and I will be overweight in GPPs as well.

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Sunday, November 26, 2017

Week 12 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Beazley)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are Sean Beazley's Week 12 NFL picks against the spread:

Kansas City Chiefs -9 over Buffalo Bills (4 units)

After a horrible performance against the Giants last week, I like the Chiefs to rebound and blow out the Giants at home this week. I think Kareem Hunt has a big game in the win. Chiefs 31, Bills 13.

Seattle Seahawks -7 over San Francisco 49ers (5 units)

I know this is a division game, but the 49ers are a bad football team. I think Russell Wilson feasts on this 49ers defense. Seahawks 27, 49ers 17.

Titans at Colts, Over 46.0 (5 units)

The Titans defense is beatable through the air. I don’t think the Colts will have any problems moving the ball here. On the flip side, the Colts give up a ton of big plays. I think Tennessee has not one, not two, but three TDs over 45 yards Sunday. Titans 37, Colts 33.
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Week 12 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Yanotchko)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are Dan Yanotchko's Week 12 NFL picks against the spread:

Miami Dolphins +16.5 over New England Patriots (3 units)

This has been quite the underdog year, and it seems the spreads have jumped quite wide in the last few weeks as we separate the haves from the have-nots. The Dolphins always play New England tough at home, but they will try to stay in the playoff race with a victory at Foxboro, and they will be without starting quarterback Jay Cutler. For me, this is a win for Miami, as I believe the Dolphins are a better team with Matt Moore under center.

The Dolphins do have a decent defense, as they are middle of the pack in allowing 229 yards per game thorough the air, and of course, Tom Brady showed up on the injury report with an Achilles injury, and he will be without his starting center and right tackle. The Dolphins will also be able to grind out yards on the ground, as the Patriots allow 119 yards rushing per game, and 5.0 yards per carry. Miami is not in the level of New England, but I think they are within 16 points of them.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10.0 over Atlanta Falcons (3 units)

The Falcons have shown signs of life recently, and they are coming off a massive Monday Night Football win on the road in Seattle. Tampa certainly has to be one of the most disappointing stories of the year, as they had such high expectations and an amazing offensive core. I still think that 10 points is just too high for a divisional game, and not while Atlanta still has not found their entire footing. I feel that Atlanta is due for a mental let-down on a short week, and also I look for the Buccaneers to be able to control the clock with their running game. The Falcons allow 115 yards rushing per game and 4.5 yards per carry, so I expect them to use Doug Martin heavy this game, and still have the quick strike ability with Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson for the back-door cover. Atlanta should win this game, but I think the number is too high here.

Baltimore Ravens -7 over Houston Texans (4 units)

What can you really say about these two teams, but hope you like defense, as this will be one of the ugliest Monday Night Football games in recent memory. The Texans have looked awful with Tom Savage at quarterback, and things do not get any easier for him, as he is going against one of the best passing defenses in the league. The Ravens have been amazing against the pass, as they only allow 185 yards passing per game, a 56.9% completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks, and they have more interceptions (16) than touchdowns allowed (11). This will be a game where the Ravens smother the Texans, and probably grind it out on eight Justin Tucker field goals. I just think the Texans have lost too many key players to injury, and will not be able to handle this Baltimore defense.
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