Sunday, July 30, 2023

2023 Fantasy Football Half-PPR Mock Draft: 12 Teams, 9th Pick

The best way to become good at something is to practice. So, what should you do if you want to draft a better fantasy football team?

Practice, of course!

Leading up to the start of the 2023 NFL season, we will use the Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator to complete fantasy football mock drafts.

We will use a variety of scoring formats — point per reception (PPR), half-PPR, standard scoring and even 2-QB leagues — and league sizes. The goal is to provide you with a good representation of the team that you may be able to construct given your league settings and the rationale of why we made the picks we did.

> Our mocks will be tracked here: Fantasy Football Mock Drafts.

That said, nothing beats practicing yourself so (check out the simulator) and complete a mock in a matter of minutes.

Half-PPR Mock Draft: 12 Teams, 9th Pick

1.09 - Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams

Kupp pulled off the rare triple crown of receiving in 2021, finishing with 145 catches for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. While he missed roughly half of his follow-up season, the 2021 NFL Offensive Player of the Year led ALL receivers in half-PPR fantasy points scored in 2022 on a per-game basis.

2.04 - Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans

Henry has led the NFL in rush attempts in three of the past four seasons (including 349 in 2022) and he's guaranteed a massive workload, as long as he remains healthy. While he set a career high in receptions (33) in 2022, he actually averaged more receptions per game in 2021 (2.3) than 2022 (2.1). Being more involved as a receiver would obviously be better, but here is where Henry has finished on a points-per-game basis in half-PPR scoring over the past four years (min. 8G played): third in 2022 (17.9), first in 2021 (23.0), third in 2020 (20.2) and second (tied) in 2019 (19.0), respectively.

3.09 - Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Other than perhaps the Dolphins with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, no team has a better WR duo than the Bengals have with Ja'Marr Chase and Higgins. As he enters his age-24 season, the former Clemson Tiger already has three seasons of consistent production with a total of 215 catches for 3,028 yards and 19 touchdowns. Higgins has a minimum of three catches in 38 of the 41 games in which he played at least 50% of the offensive snaps.

4.04 - Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers

There are two main risks with Samuel — durability concerns due to his physical play style and the number of mouths to feed in San Francisco's talented offense. A motivated Samuel should be better on a per-touch basis in 2023 than he was last year.

5.09 - Cam Akers, RB, Los Angeles Rams

Much of Akers' 2022 production came in the final six weeks of the season when he finished with 104 carries for 512 yards (4.92 YPC) and six touchdowns and 11 receptions for 99 yards on 12 targets. If he maintains a workhorse role throughout the whole season, there is plenty of upside with him here in the fifth round.

6.04 - Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

White sits atop the team's depth chart and should dominate touches in 2023. As a 2022 rookie, he had 129 carries for 481 yards (only 3.7 YPC) and a touchdown in addition to 50 receptions for 290 yards and two touchdowns. The biggest concern for White (and all of Tampa's skill-position players) remains how much the offense struggles in a post-Tom Brady world.

7.09 - Darren Waller, TE, New York Giants

A couple of seasons removed from back-to-back 1,100-yard campaigns, Waller is clearly the top weapon in New York's passing attack. While he has been limited to only 20 games over the past two seasons, his 17-game pace is 71/895/4 during that stretch.

8.04 - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

What a difference a year (and a new coaching staff) made for Lawrence! The 2021 NFL Draft's top overall pick completed 66.3% of his pass attempts for 7.0 yards per attempt, while throwing 25 touchdowns and only seven interceptions in 2022. (That compares to 59.6%, 6.0 Y/A and 12:17 TD-INT ratio in 2021.) In fact, Lawrence improved considerably as the season progressed — 69.7% completion rate, 7.4 Y/A and a 15-to-two TD-INT ratio from Weeks 9-18. Bigger things could/should be in store for Lawrence in 2023, as Calvin Ridley joins Christian Kirk, coming off career numbers (84/1108/8 in 2022), Evan Engram, and Travis Etienne.

9.09 - Rashaad Penny, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Through five NFL seasons, Penny has missed nearly as many games (40) as he has played (42). When healthy, however, he has averaged 5.7 yards per carry over his career and an even-better 6.2 YPC over the past two seasons (176/1095/8). As long as he's healthy, however, Penny would be a great fit for the Miles Sanders role within the backfield.

10.04 - Elijah Moore, WR, Cleveland Browns

Before an injury ended his rookie season prematurely, Moore had 34 catches for 459 yards and five touchdowns over his final six games in 2021. (Moore was so good during that span that only Justin Jefferson had more fantasy points over that stretch.) When he was on the field in 2022, things didn't go as well, but he'll get an opportunity to reset with the Browns in 2023.

11.09 - Tyler Allgeier, RB, Atlanta Falcons

Allgeier was a player I liked as a sleeper last year, and the fifth-rounder out of BYU eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark as a rookie. With the Falcons drafting Robinson at No. 8 overall, it obviously delivers a huge blow to Allgeier's fantasy stock, but he is worth a stash as my RB5 on this roster.

12.04 - Michael Gallup, WR, Dallas Cowboys

Gallup missed only the first three games of 2022, but his production was abysmal (39/424/4 in the regular season). Including two playoff games, he had less than 50 receiving yards in 15 of 16 games. Getting back to an 1,100-yard season (2019) is highly unlikely, but he should be better in 2023 now that he's another year removed from his torn ACL.

13.09 - Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis was arguably the most ideal landing spot for Richardson. After all, new coach Shane Steichen tailored Philadelphia's offense to best suit the skill set of Jalen Hurts. Ups and downs should be expected for Richardson, but his elite athletic profile gives him enormous rushing upside from the point he becomes the starter (presumably Week 1).

14.04 - Buffalo Bills DST

15.09 - Tyler Higbee, TE, Los Angeles Rams

Unintentionally adding my third Ram here, Higbee set career highs in targets (108, fourth-most among TEs) and receptions (72, fifth) in 2022. While Kupp missed nearly half of the season, Higbee's per-game numbers were actually better with Kupp (4.9/43 on 7.2 targets) than without Kupp (3.5/29 on 5.4 targets). At a position where volume is inconsistent outside of the elite options, there is value in the consistency of Higbee's volume, especially given Waller's recent injury history.

16.04 - Younghoe Koo, K, Atlanta Falcons

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Los Angeles Rams 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

Our Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2023 fantasy football projections for the Los Angeles Rams.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDPoints
Matthew Stafford529.2357.23863.225.6714.5538.997.31.17244.86
Stetson Bennett49.232341.92.021.288.621.50.2222.67

Matthew Stafford: There were concerns with Stafford and his elbow heading into the 2022 season, and the veteran quarterback managed to appear in only nine games due to a spinal cord contusion. Stafford threw 10 touchdowns (3.3 TD%, his lowest since 2012) and eight interceptions and averaged 6.9 yards per attempt (lowest since 2018) with an 87.4 passer rating (lowest since 2014). Stafford is in a better place to start training camp this year, saying that he "feel(s) a lot better physically." If he can stay healthy in 2023, how close will he be to the 2021 version who led the Rams to the Super Bowl and finished as a top-five fantasy quarterback?

RUNNING BACKS

PlayerAtt.YardsTDRec.YardsTDPoints
Cam Akers234.4996.26.4527.2201.81.2179.3
Kyren Williams51.9212.81.1729.2214.51.472.75
Zach Evans64.8278.61.628.863.10.450.69
Ronnie Rivers1356.60.331.914.70.110.66

Cam Akers: While he missed nearly all of 2021 with a torn Achilles, Akers has gone from workhorse to the coach's doghouse and back to workhorse, when healthy. Much of Akers' 2022 production came in the final six weeks of the season when he finished with 104 carries for 512 yards (4.92 YPC) and six touchdowns and 11 receptions for 99 yards on 12 targets.

Kyren Williams: Small (5-9 and 194 pounds) and slow (4.65 40-yard dash) by NFL standards, Williams profiles as a change-of-pace option for Akers who also has a shot to lead the team's running backs in receptions.

Zach Evans: While the former five-star recruit slipped to the sixth round in this year's draft and was behind true freshman Quinshon Judkins on the Ole Miss 2022 depth chart, Evans isn't the worst late-round dart throw in best ball drafts given the recent usage history of Rams running backs.

WIDE RECEIVERS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Cooper Kupp119.71337.28.310.862.10.54252.82
Van Jefferson53.5695.94.4000122.74
Ben Skowronek34.4393.22.61.17.70.0673.25
Tutu Atwell11.9145.118.638.70.5233.45
Demarcus Robinson13.8161.91.100029.69
Puka Nacua10.7130.40.900023.79
Lance McCutcheon112.60.10002.36

Cooper Kupp: Kupp pulled off the rare triple crown of receiving in 2021, finishing with 145 catches for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. While he missed roughly half of his follow-up season, the 2021 NFL Offensive Player of the Year had a better season than maybe most realized.

Who led ALL receivers in half-PPR fantasy points scored in 2022 on a per-game basis? Yep, it was Kupp — not Justin Jefferson, or any other receiver. Kupp is at full strength heading into 2023, and he should be one of the first few receivers off the board.

Van Jefferson: Jefferson is an uninspiring WR5 in fantasy. Making his season debut in Week 8 (and playing mostly when Kupp was out), Jefferson had only 24 catches for 369 yards and three touchdowns in nine games last season.

TIGHT ENDS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Tyler Higbee56.4603.44.3000114.34
Hunter Long998.80.800019.18
Brycen Hopkins7.484.10.600015.71
Davis Allen4.348.40.40009.39

Tyler Higbee: Higbee set career highs in targets (108, fourth-most among TEs) and receptions (72, fifth) in 2022. While Cooper Kupp missed nearly half of the season, Higbee's per-game numbers were actually better with Kupp (4.9/43 on 7.2 targets) than without Kupp (3.5/29 on 5.4 targets). At a position where volume is inconsistent outside of the elite options, there is value in the consistency of Higbee's volume.

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Sunday, July 23, 2023

Carolina Panthers 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

Our Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2023 fantasy football projections for the Carolina Panthers.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDPoints
Bryce Young523.8340.53692.82213.6253214.71.33237.92
Andy Dalton33.421.8232.11.40.96.821.10.1416.03

Bryce Young: Young is obviously Carolina's quarterback of the future, but it was nice to see Frank Reich name him the starter (over Andy Dalton) early in the process. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft is always composed, processes information quickly and thrives when extending and making plays outside of structure.

RUNNING BACKS

PlayerAtt.YardsTDRec.YardsTDPoints
Miles Sanders216.5995.95.8532.6243.31.4183.72
Chuba Hubbard117.3504.43.0523.2170.71103.41
Raheem Blackshear47.4194.31.351398.10.546.84

Miles Sanders: Sanders set career highs in rushing last season with 259 carries for 1,269 yards and 11 touchdowns. Through four NFL seasons, he has averaged 5.02 yards per carry. With Jalen Hurts under center, Sanders (and Philly's running backs) weren't targeted often, but he had 50 receptions as a rookie in 2022. There's a good chance that he's more involved as a receiver than he was over the past several seasons.

WIDE RECEIVERS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
D.J. Chark486773.7000113.9
Adam Thielen53.4586.83.9000108.78
Jonathan Mingo45.3553.43.300097.79
Terrace Marshall Jr.31.7412.12.300070.86
Laviska Shenault Jr.23.5253.21.510.155.60.5154.69
Shi Smith7.192.20.600016.37

D.J. Chark: Chark will compete with Adam Thielen, Terrace Marshall Jr. and Jonathan Mingo for targets, which means that Chark has a real shot to lead the team's wide receivers in fantasy points in 2023. Chark has appeared in only 28 games over the past three seasons, but he had a breakout age-23 season before that with 73/1,008/8 in 2019.

Adam Thielen: After spending his entire career in Minnesota, Thielen begins anew with the Panthers and a rookie quarterback in his age-33 season. Thielen has scored 30 touchdowns over the past three seasons, and he has a minimum of 67 catches and 710 yards in each of those seasons.

Jonathan Mingo: The Panthers used a top-40 pick on Mingo, a big receiver (6-2, 220) who had a strong showing at the combine (4.46 40-yard dash, 39.5" vertical jump and 22 bench press reps). While the college production wasn't elite as a four-year starter, he's a good route runner who uses his size and strong hands to win in contested-catch situations.

TIGHT ENDS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Hayden Hurst51.6510.23.100095.42
Ian Thomas13.6135.40.900025.74
Tommy Tremble12.7129.50.900024.7
Giovanni Ricci6.562.80.400011.93

Hayden Hurst: Hurst has missed four games and averaged only 8.5 yards per reception (or less) in back-to-back seasons, but he averaged a career-high four receptions per game last season. Given the relative uncertainty at wide receiver, it's possible that Hurst comes close to his averages from last year.

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Minnesota Vikings 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

Our Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2023 fantasy football projections for the Minnesota Vikings.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDPoints
Kirk Cousins594.3392.84427.529.1213.0736113.41.26286.34
Nick Mullens37.924.7276.71.551.174.29.50.0916.42

Kirk Cousins: Reunited with his former Washington offensive coordinator, Cousins finished as fantasy's QB7 with Kevin O'Connell in his first year as his head coach. Among quarterbacks that played at least half the season, however, Cousins was 11th on a points-per-game basis as the veteran quarterback set multi-year lows in completion percentage (65.9%), TD% (4.5), yards per attempt (7.1) and passer rating (92.5) in 2022. With the Vikings bolstering its group of pass catchers by drafting Jordan Addison in the first round, Cousins remains a steady back-end QB1 type heading into 2023.

RUNNING BACKS

PlayerAtt.YardsTDRec.YardsTDPoints
Alexander Mattison194.7817.75.3540.72942.1176.22
Ty Chandler93.1386.42.3317.3124.70.979.14
Kene Nwangwu37.2152.50.939.265.90.535.02
DeWayne McBride42.3177.71.16.344.70.333.79
C.J. Ham4.214.70.121075.30.618.32

Alexander Mattison: The Vikings released Dalvin Cook this offseason, and Mattison is poised for a breakout season. The fifth-year back has 90-plus rushing yards in five of the six games in which has has played more than 40 offensive snaps.

Ty Chandler: As a direct result of Cook's release, Chandler moves into the backup role to Mattison. Even if the Vikings utilize a committee approach, Chandler and Dewayne McBride are intriguing sleepers late in drafts.

WIDE RECEIVERS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Justin Jefferson116.91620.68.34.218.90.21273.46
Jordan Addison57.8717.44.83.2160.16132
K.J. Osborn49.35884.32.511.30.1110.98
Jalen Nailor11.3131.7100024.82
Brandon Powell10.9112.90.81.56.80.0622.58
Jalen Reagor2.123.50.20004.6

Justin Jefferson: What more can Jefferson do? Not only has he improved his production in each successive season, but he broke Randy Moss's record for receiving yards through a player's first three seasons. During those three seasons, he's racked up a total of 324 receptions for 4,825 yards and 25 touchdowns.

Jordan Addison: With Justin Jefferson commanding so much defensive attention, Addison's landing spot is ideal for his ability to make an early impact. While he ran a slower-than-expected 40-yard dash (4.49) at the NFL Combine, the former Biletnikoff Award winner is a polished route-runner with some inside/outside versatility and the ability to win at all three levels.

TIGHT ENDS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
T.J. Hockenson68.1726.85.2000137.93
Josh Oliver10103.50.900020.75
Johnny Mundt7.775.30.700015.58

T.J. Hockenson: Hockenson was traded midseason within the division, and he averaged 8.6 targets and six receptions per game after the trade to the Vikings. Despite the midseason trade, he finished as fantasy's TE2, but part of that was aided by two monster games — 8/179/2 for the Lions in Week 4 and 13/109/2 for the Vikings in Week 16. Other than those two huge games, he had double-digit (half-PPR) fantasy points in only two other games.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

Our Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2023 fantasy football projections for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDPoints
Baker Mayfield471.2292.1332220.2613.1941.6145.61.66212.06
Kyle Trask117.869.5812.84.594.1215.338.30.6150.12

Baker Mayfield: After Tom Brady's (second) retirement, the Bucs find themselves in the unenviable position of having to choose between Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask. Even though Tampa hasn't officially named the starter, it's likely going to be Mayfield, who is on his fourth team in the past 18 months. Mayfield completed 60% of his pass attempts in 2022 for 2,163 yards (6.5 Y/A), 10 touchdowns and eight interceptions over 12 games.

RUNNING BACKS

PlayerAtt.YardsTDRec.YardsTDPoints
Rachaad White212.38815.4145.2341.11.9188.67
Chase Edmonds87.53852.2823.7177.8187.81
Ke'Shawn Vaughn52.5223.11.376.953.80.240.56
Sean Tucker23.297.40.64310.219.64

Rachaad White: With the Buccaneers releasing Leonard Fournette, who is still a free agent, White enters 2023 atop the team's depth chart. As a 2022 rookie, he had 129 carries for 481 yards (only 3.7 YPC) and a touchdown in addition to 50 receptions for 290 yards and two touchdowns. His best game as a runner (22/105) was against the Seattle Seahawks and his new offensive coordinator Dave Canales, who was Seattle's quarterbacks coach last year.

WIDE RECEIVERS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Chris Godwin79.6971.75.63.716.70.19173.38
Mike Evans68.91002.76.4000173.12
Russell Gage51.5605.73.7000108.52
Deven Thompkins9.91220.71.510.50.0622.76
David Moore7.297.20.600016.92
Trey Palmer5.876.50.500013.55

Chris Godwin: Godwin has missed multiple games in each of the past four seasons. While he set a career high in targets (142) and receptions (104) in 2022 and has reached the 1,000-yard mark in three of his past four seasons, he set a career low in Y/R (9.8) and his three touchdowns were a non-rookie career low. The downgrade at quarterback from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield (or Kyle Trask) will impact Godwin, Mike Evans and the team's passing offense overall.

Mike Evans: Evans extended his 1,000-yard streak to his first nine NFL seasons, which beat his own record in 2022. While the targets (127), receptions (77), yards (1,124) and Y/R (14.6) all look good, he had only six touchdowns, a five-year low, and he wasn't consistent throughout the season. A monster Week 17 game (20/207/3) against Carolina ended an 11-game scoring drought (Weeks 5-16). Evans exceeded 59 yards only once from Weeks 9-16. Even if he extends his 1,000-yard streak, there could be plenty of ups and downs throughout the course of the season given the quarterback downgrade.

TIGHT ENDS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Cade Otton42.3479.62.900086.51
Ko Kieft14.5153100028.55
Payne Durham2.222.70.10003.97

Cade Otton: Otton had 42 catches for 391 yards and two touchdowns on 65 targets as a rookie in 2022 and he had four catches for 58 yards on seven targets in their playoff loss to the Cowboys. Even if his numbers are better in his second season, he's not much more than a fantasy TE2 in 2023.

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Saturday, July 22, 2023

Detroit Lions 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

Our Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2023 fantasy football projections for the Detroit Lions.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDPoints
Jared Goff544.1361.84026.324.487.6228.478.10.5254.54
Hendon Hooker4126289.11.681.034.616.10.0918.37

Jared Goff: The Lions finished top five in the NFL in both scoring and total offense in 2022, and Goff was much better in his second season with the Lions than he was in his first. Throwing for 4,438 yards, 29 touchdowns and only seven interceptions, Goff finished as fantasy's QB10. Playing behind one of the league's better offensive lines and with a talented group of pass catchers, Goff will push for a second consecutive top-12 campaign even though he offers zero rushing upside.

RUNNING BACKS

PlayerAtt.YardsTDRec.YardsTDPoints
Jahmyr Gibbs165.7720.84.5656453.12.7188.95
David Montgomery188.9793.45.6725.4194.21.2152.68
Craig Reynolds34.1146.60.894.334.50.226.8
Justin Jackson18.280.10.53.525.90.115.95
Jason Cabinda1.14.50.032.921.60.14.84

Jahmyr Gibbs: It's a new-look backfield for the Lions — D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams are out, and Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are in. Detroit's backfield ranked third in touches last season, and they were top 10 in RB targets. Gibbs lacks ideal size to be a workhorse back, but he will quickly develop into one of the league's best receiving backs and he has game-breaking speed (4.36 40-yard dash). It's possible, maybe likely, that Montgomery leads the backfied in touches while Gibbs leads it in fantasy points scored.

David Montgomery: The Lions had two backs finish as top-24 performers in 2022 — Williams (RB8) and Swift (RB22) — and no team's running backs scored more fantasy points than Detroit's. In other words, it's possible that the duo of Gibbs and Montgomery both perform as RB2-type backs (or better). Montgomery has averaged only 3.94 YPC through four seasons, but he will have the opportunity to run behind a much better offensive line in Detroit than he had in Chicago. In addition, he is a capable receiver as well with a minimum of 25 receptions each year and a total of 155 through four seasons.

WIDE RECEIVERS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Amon-Ra St. Brown93.11057.36.27.369.40.55199.72
Jameson Williams43.8619.33.62.316.10.14107.88
Marvin Jones49.3595.53.6000105.8
Josh Reynolds20.9263.21.600046.37
Kalif Raymond16.1215.81.24.625.30.2340.74
Denzel Mims5.475.50.500013.25
Antoine Green2.536.70.20006.12

Amon-Ra St. Brown: Extremely productive through his first two seasons, St. Brown set career highs in 2022 with 106 receptions, 1,161 yards and six touchdowns. Given Jameson Williams' six-game suspension to start the season, St. Brown should continue to see massive target shares.

Jameson Williams: Williams made his NFL debut in Week 13, and he played only 78 offensive snaps in the team's final six games. While he had an 11.1% catch rate (one catch on nine targets), he had one 41-yard touchdown reception and one 40-yard run on his two NFL touches in 2022. He's a big play waiting to happen, but a gambling suspension will keep him off the field through the first six games.

TIGHT ENDS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Sam LaPorta38.8442.32.900081.03
Brock Wright14.5161.81.100030.03
James Mitchell5.862.60.400011.56
Shane Zylstra5.456.10.400010.71

Sam LaPorta: Other than the typical learning curve for tight ends transitioning to the NFL, there is a lot to like about LaPorta. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if we're talking about him as one of the top 6-8 fantasy tight ends this time next year, but the question remains how quickly he'll move into the top-12 mix as a rookie.

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Friday, July 21, 2023

Washington Commanders 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

Our Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2023 fantasy football projections for the Washington Commanders.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDPoints
Sam Howell441.62763179.517.8812.5971266.32.13212.93
Jacoby Brissett110.469.6761.83.971.8219.676.40.6954.49

Sam Howell: It was a surprise that Howell slipped to the fifth round of the 2022 NFL Draft, and the former Tar Heel started the season finale. He completed only 11-of-19 pass attempts for 169 yards (8.9 Y/A), a touchdown and an interception, but he also ran for 35 yards and a touchdown on five carries. With a talented receiving corps, a new offensive coordinator and some mobility, Howell has a chance to deliver better-than-expected results in 2023.

RUNNING BACKS

PlayerAtt.YardsTDRec.YardsTDPoints
Brian Robinson Jr.200.5852.15.9122.5173.40.8154.06
Antonio Gibson123.6519.13.5249.1388.22148.4
Jonathan Williams19.681.30.514.131.50.217.59
Chris Rodriguez Jr.15.967.60.4429.60.215.32

Brian Robinson Jr.: Given what he endured before the season (shot multiple times during a car jacking), Robinson had an incredibly impressive rookie season and shouldered a heavy workload, when healthy. He averaged 17.1 carries per game, although he was less involved as a receiver (12 targets in 12 games).

Antonio Gibson: Fumbling issues plagued Gibson's 2021 season, and he was inefficient last season (3.66 YPC) with career lows in both touches (195) and yards from scrimmage (899). Gibson has a minimum of 36 catches in each season with a career-high 46 last year and coach Ron Rivera referred to him as a "matchup nightmare for the opponent." With J.D. McKissic no longer on the roster and a new offense that should feature more screens, there is a chance that Gibson sees a big jump in his receiving opportunities.

WIDE RECEIVERS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Terry McLaurin76.61044.45.35.437.80.22179.64
Jahan Dotson56.5792.24.43.718.50.11136.38
Curtis Samuel47.3522.23.129.4173.51.76122.38
Dyami Brown12.4185.2115.50.0531.57
Dax Milne5.257.10.300010.11
Kazmeir Allen1.721.70.10003.62

Terry McLaurin: Just shy of the 1,000-yard mark as a rookie (2019) when he missed two games, McLaurin has since finished every season with more than 75 receptions and 1,000 yards. While he has averaged 80.3 receptions and 1,120.7 yards over the past three seasons, he has only 14 total touchdowns.

Jahan Dotson: Dotson missed five games in his rookie season, but the 2022 first-rounder finished with 35 receptions for 523 yards (14.9 Y/R) and seven touchdowns. Dotson has some breakout appeal as he heads into his sophomore campaign.

Curtis Samuel: Samuel played limited offensive snaps (84) in his first season with the Commanders as he dealt with injuries, but he had 64 receptions for 656 yards and four touchdowns and added 187 rushing yards and a score in 2022. In his past three healthy seasons, he has finished as fantasy's WR34 (2022), WR25 (2020) and WR36 (2019). Perhaps he doesn't have a fourth top-36 season in five years, but he'll likely outperform his ADP if he can stay healthy.

TIGHT ENDS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Logan Thomas43.5453.22.900084.47
John Bates131340.900025.3
Cole Turner9.7108.40.800020.49

Logan Thomas: Thomas is a couple of seasons removed from a 72/670/6 breakout campaign, but he tore his ACL in 2021 and has a combined 57/519/4 in 20 games over the past two seasons. Going into his age-32 season, he may be the fourth option in the passing game behind Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel, but team reporter Zach Selby wrote, "it looks like Washington's tight ends are going to be heavily involved in the passing game this season."

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Sunday, July 16, 2023

Chicago Bears 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

Our Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2023 fantasy football projections for the Chicago Bears.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDPoints
Justin Fields446.9275.73217.722.7914.08137.6839.46.19312.79
P.J. Walker36.221.4246.21.121.017.225.20.2516.33

Justin Fields: Making improvements as a passer in his second season, Fields also made in-season strides with the following splits:

  • Games 1-7: 55.9% completion, five TDs and six INTs
  • Games 8-15: 63.7% completion, 12 TDs and five INTs

More improvement as a passer should be expected for his third season, but Fields has as much rushing upside as any quarterback in the NFL. He led the NFL in yards per carry (7.1) and ended the season with 1,143 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. Only six running backs rushed for more yards in 2022. Over his final 10 games, Fields was even more dominant as a runner with a per-game rushing line of 11.8/94.9/0.7 (8.04 YPC). In his final 10 games played, Fields finished as a top-10 weekly quarterback nine times, a top-five performer five times and the overall weekly QB1 twice.

RUNNING BACKS

PlayerAtt.YardsTDRec.YardsTDPoints
Khalil Herbert148.4682.64.4525.1180.11.2132.72
D'Onta Foreman115.7503.33.1814.4109.10.791.72
Roschon Johnson73.3322.51.949.167.50.457.59
Travis Homer13.961.90.287.657.20.319.19

Khalil Herbert: Chances are that Justin Fields will lead the Bears in rushing, but Herbert has been highly efficient — career 5.02 YPC on 232 carries — through his first two NFL seasons. Given the volume of rush attempts by Fields, it should come as no surprise that the Bears ranked last in the NFL in running back receptions and 31st in running back targets in 2022. Even if Herbert leads the Bears running backs in both rushing and receiving, which I currently project, it's possible that fantasy managers are left wanting a bit more.

D'Onta Foreman: Foreman rushed for more than 110 yards in five of the final 11 games in 2022 for the Panthers. During that span, he racked up 191/877/5 rushing (4.59 YPC). Even if Herbert is the favorite to lead the backfield, Foreman could end up getting a little more run than expected.

WIDE RECEIVERS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
D.J. Moore66.8900.66.17.563.80.23167.82
Darnell Mooney47.8594.14.11.57.90.09109.24
Chase Claypool40.1536.93.62.1110.1397.22
Equanimeous St. Brown13.1200.91.23.324.80.1737.34
Velus Jones Jr.5.5710.53.935.10.2717.98
Tyler Scott6.286.60.600015.36

D.J. Moore: Moore set four-year lows in receptions (63) and yards (888) last season, although he posted a career high in touchdowns (seven). Justin Fields should continue to improve as a passer in 2023 (in part due to the boost Moore provides to the receiving corps), but the Bears ranked last in the league in passing play percentage (43.8%) last season. In other words, Moore may not get a significant jump in targets from the 118 he had last season with the Panthers.

Darnell Mooney: Mooney broke out in 2021 (81/1055/4), but he failed to build upon that in his third season. Even though he missed five games, he averaged 1.5 receptions and 21 receiving yards per game fewer in 2022 than in 2021. The addition of Moore will help Fields, but it slides Mooney down a notch on the target pecking order.

TIGHT ENDS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Cole Kmet45.5498.83.900096.03
Robert Tonyan12.9131.61.100026.21
Chase Allen329.40.20005.64

Cole Kmet: Targeted much less in 2022 (69) than 2021 (93), Kmet's receptions (50) and yardage (544) dropped only modestly due to improvements in catch rate (64.5% to 72.5%) and yards per target (6.6 to 7.9). Held scoreless in 2021, Kmet had seven touchdowns in 2022 including six scores from Weeks 8-17. Adding a talented receiver (D.J. Moore) to the mix within a run-dominant offense may limit Kmet's opportunity to take a major step forward from his 2021-22 production levels.

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Thursday, July 13, 2023

Denver Broncos 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

Our Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2023 fantasy football projections for the Denver Broncos.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDPoints
Russell Wilson531.5334.83959.723.3911.9654.7251.61.91264.65
Jarrett Stidham33.920.8240.71.531.195.619.60.1716.35

Russell Wilson: Wilson's debut season with the Broncos was a flop. He set career lows in completion percentage (60.5%), TDs/TD% (16, 3.3%) and passer rating (84.4). From Weeks 1 to 13, Wilson had only one top-12 weekly performance (Week 4), but he exceeded 24 fantasy points in three of his final four games in 2022. Transitioning to Sean Payton's offense improves optimism about Wilson's 2023 outlook, but he should still be drafted as a fantasy QB2.

RUNNING BACKS

PlayerAtt.YardsTDRec.YardsTDPoints
Javonte Williams179.8791.14.9437.3270.91.4162.89
Samaje Perine142.8606.93.7130.2224.71.3128.32
Tony Jones Jr.36.8154.60.927.356.70.332.1
Tyler Badie15.666.30.393.225.20.113.69
Michael Burton6.720.80.24.329.40.18.97

Javonte Williams: It remains unclear whether Williams (ACL) will be ready to go for the start of the season, but he expects to be cleared for training camp. If he is, how close will he be to his pre-injury form and how quickly will he be able to get back to that form? Through 21 career games, Williams has 250 carries for 1,107 yards (4.4 YPC, 52.7 YPG), 59 receptions for 392 yards and a total of seven touchdowns.

Samaje Perine: The early-season availability of Javonte Williams factors heavily into Perine's role, but either way, Perine is poised for a "significant role" in Denver's backfield throughout the season. Sean Payton has a long history of giving substantial workloads to the team's second back.

WIDE RECEIVERS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Jerry Jeudy67.9907.35.43.122.50.09159.87
Courtland Sutton54.9756.14.51.16.10.03130.85
Tim Patrick48.5638.53.8000110.9
Marvin Mims23.3325.5200056.2
K.J. Hamler8.91260.700021.25
Kendall Hinton3.646.20.20007.62
Montrell Washington0.910.50.10002.1

Jerry Jeudy: Jeudy set career highs in receptions (67), yards (972) and touchdowns (six) on 100 targets over 15 games in 2022. Jeudy had 53-plus yards in 10 of his final 11 games if we exclude Week 10 (when he played only one offensive snap). During that 11-game stretch, Jeudy posted a 60/842/5 line with a 72.3% catch rate and 10.14 yards per target. Given the offseason coaching change and Jeudy's production last season when healthy, he has the potential for even better numbers in 2023.

Courtland Sutton: After missing nearly all of 2020, Sutton has appeared in 32 of 34 games over the past two seasons and has averaged 61/803/2 over that time. Like with Jeudy, Sutton could benefit from the potential for improved offensive potency, but Tim Patrick is back after missing all of 2022 with a torn ACL and the Broncos drafted Marvin Mims in Round 2.

Tim Patrick: Patrick missed all of 2022 after tearing his ACL in training camp. Before 2022, he had solid back-to-back seasons — 51/742/6 (WR41) and 53/734/5 (WR40) in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Russell Wilson was "most comfortable" with Patrick before the injury, and "multiple people in the building" have told NFL Network's James Palmer that Patrick is the "best football player" in the WR room.

TIGHT ENDS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Greg Dulcich44.8554.53.400098.25
Adam Trautman14161.7100029.17
Albert Okwuegbunam3.739.90.30007.64
Chris Manhertz2.727.30.20005.28

Greg Dulcich: Dulcich had 33 catches for 411 yards and two touchdowns in 10 games as a rookie in 2022. Sean Payton talked up Dulcich, saying that he has "a unique skill set. He's got traits. In the passing game we use the term, 'Joker' where you can get matchups."

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