What a year it's been for the Baltimore defense. And what an unbelievable year it's' been for pending free agent Justin Madubuike within the guts of the front three. Similar in height/weight and skill set to that of Baltimore's former third-rounder, Byron Murphy II is one of the most explosive 3-techs in the nation. Should Madubuike depart, Murphy II can provide an immediate insurance plan for one of the league's most athletic front sevens.
Starting guards John Simpson and Kevin Zeitler will both be free agents in March. Fautanu's heavy hands and impressive athleticism has been on display at tackle for the Huskies the last two seasons, but less-than-ideal arm length might cause a team to kick him inside at the next level. Regardless, he has Pro Bowl-level talent.
The Baltimore Ravens love to build up their trenches, so why not draft a player from the Harbaugh pipeline again? Kris Jenkins excelled as a run defender at Michigan and would give Baltimore even more size and athleticism on its defensive line.
The Ravens got a shifty, creative wide receiver in Zay Flowers last year in Round 1. Now, they grab a big-bodied, above-the-rim target in Keon Coleman. His play style fits with Lamar Jackson's ability to create magic out of structure.
The Ravens like to continue building up strengths, and that's what they do here with Robinson. Baltimore has gotten a lot of pass-rush productivity out of Jadeveon Clowney (9.5 sacks) and Kyle Van Noy (9.0), but Robinson would make this defense even better. He is one of the most explosive players in this class. Yes, he had only four sacks in 10 games this season, but his 18.0% pressure rate ranked sixth among players with at least 150 pass-rush snaps. For Robinson to reach his full potential, he will need a situation where he isn't relied on as an immediate full-time starter, and this seems like a perfect match.
Long, explosive and the owner of 4.3 speed, Mitchell had major (name, image and likeness-related) opportunities to leave Toledo and join an SEC team or another top-tier program this past offseason. He stuck with the Rockets and wound up as one of the nation's most productive man-coverage corners.
Eric DeCosta has built one of the NFL's most formidable rosters by scooping up gems in the draft rather than forcing picks based on need. Here, that strategy points them toward Tuimoloau, a powerful if inconsistent force off the edge who should help replenish a pass rush that could lose Pro Bowl defensive tackle Justin Madubuike and Jadeveon Clowney in free agency.
My EDGE1 in the class, Laiatu Latu won't blow you away with his athletic profile or 40 time, but his hands, strength, and unbelievably deep pass-rush repertoire is beyond his years. I expect him to dominate one-on-ones at the Senior Bowl and boost his stock into the top 10.
Could Belichick end up coaching the Falcons next season? If so, he'd likely pester GM Terry Fontenot to target Turner in the draft. Turner was overshadowed by Will Anderson Jr. his previous two seasons at Tuscaloosa — he had 8.5 sacks as a true freshman in 2021 — but he's capable of being a star in his own right. This season, the AP All-American added some bulk to his frame and displayed more power to go with his already impressive speed-rush capabilities.
Ideally, the Atlanta Falcons would love to move up and get one of the top three quarterbacks in this class. But in this mock, they stay at No. 8 and select the top cornerback: Nate Wiggins.
A.J. Terrell had another strong season in Atlanta, but the Falcons need a better option opposite him. Pairing him with another Clemson Tiger in Wiggins makes too much sense.
The first defensive player to come off the board, Turner is as athletic as they come in the front seven. In 2022, so much of his game was built around speed, but the strength strides he made in 2023 have turned him into a top 12 prospect.
He'll play his entire rookie season as a 21-year-old, with a massive pass rush ceiling in front of him.
It's no secret the Falcons need a quarterback. But Arthur Smith has been relieved of his coaching duties, and with pressure to win next season, I think Atlanta could go the veteran route under center. With that in mind, adding another pass-rusher makes sense, as the Falcons owned the worst pass rush win rate (30.9%) in the league. Latu has an impressive arsenal of pass-rush moves and has improved as a run defender. He was second in the FBS in pressure rate (20.1%) this season and recorded 23.5 sacks since joining UCLA in 2022.
Medical issues are the biggest question mark here. Latu was forced to sit out two seasons because of a 2020 neck injury while still at Washington. But with a clean bill of health, he would be a no-brainer top-10 pick.
Proposed trade: Atlanta receives No. 1; Chicago receives Nos. 8 and 43 plus a future first-round pick and a future second-round pick
Chicago hasn't made a decision yet on Justin Fields. If the Bears decide to move on, this pick will be for a quarterback.
At the same time, the Bears' trade last March with Carolina again puts general manager Ryan Poles in a situation in which he can unload No. 1 for a haul, further build around (or kick the can on) Fields and really charge up an already impressive young roster.
Of all the QB-needy teams, Atlanta's roster is the most ready to win. Now, add a new coach and a new face of the franchise. Williams next to running back Bijan Robinson, in an offense with tight end Kyle Pitts and wide receiver Drake London, might sell a ticket or two.
The quarterback question is going to hang over the franchise all offseason after Arthur Smith's firing, but there doesn't seem to be a suitable solution here for an otherwise playoff-ready roster. Still, there should be no problem with picking up Turner, a dynamic and explosive edge threat who would recalibrate a lackluster pass rush.
Notre Dame's Joe Alt is my top tackle in the class, but this is a pick with Olu Fashanu's ceiling in mind within an improving Arizona roster. A year after taking the raw yet uber-talented Paris Johnson Jr on day one, GM Monti Ossenfort goes a similar route with Fashanu, one of the class' most gifted pound-for-pound athletes with an underappreciated game as a run blocker.
26. Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina
This still may be too low for Xavier Legette. A physical specimen at 6-foot-3 and 227 pounds, he's a three-level threat that forces multiple defenders to bring him down in space. His stock is expected to SOAR after his week at the Senior Bowl.
Would GM Monti Ossenfort move on from Kyler Murray and select one of the top-3 QBs here if one is available? Perhaps, but I'm thinking the Cardinals are still committed to Murray, and Ossenfort wouldn't complain if he were able to fill one of his roster's biggest needs with the top overall prospect in the draft. If we were to "Weird Science" a wide receiver, the computer would almost certainly produce Harrison. The consensus All-American is a route tactician who features prototypical size (6-foot-4, 205 pounds), strong hands and athleticism with Hall of Fame NFL lineage (he's the son of Colts legend Marvin Harrison). The last receiver to be drafted inside the top-3 was Calvin Johnson in 2007, and Harrison has that type of potential.
21. Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
The Cardinals landed the best player in this draft (Marvin Harrison Jr.) with their first pick of the first round. Here they can continue to build a young and talented secondary. Based on upside, Arnold could be ranked higher on some draft boards than his Crimson Tide teammate Kool-Aid McKinstry. He's relatively inexperienced at cornerback — he was a former safety recruit — but he's been one of the better run defenders at the position and has proven a quick-study in coverage.
This mock draft couldn't have worked out any better for the Arizona Cardinals.
With three quarterbacks picked in a row, that leaves Marvin Harrison Jr. on the board at No. 4. Wide receiver is the most significant need for Arizona, and Harrison is a can't-miss prospect. Pairing him with Kyler Murray would be a blast to watch.
21. Troy Fautanu, IOL, Washington
D.J. Humphries' future is up in the air, especially after he tore his ACL in the final month of the season. The expectation for the Cardinals is that Paris Johnson Jr. will kick over to left tackle, but Arizona desperately needs help on the interior offensive line.
Fautanu was a left tackle at Washington, but he best projects as a guard in the NFL. His size and athleticism would be welcomed in Arizona as the Cardinals try to rebuild the offensive line in front of Kyler Murray.
In a perfect world, Marvin Harrison Jr. falls into Arizona's lap due to the quarterback craze. In this scenario they still make out great with a blue chip tackle in Joe Alt. Paris Johnson Jr. would stay at right tackle for the Cardinals in this scenario, where he spent all of his rookie year.
Alt's movement for his size is impressive, while being an extremely disciplined player who can move defenders in the run game.
21. Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
There's a lot of work to be done from a personnel standpoint on Arizona's defense and it's easy to start at corner. Arnold's 2023 tape is tremendous, showing off athleticism and the ability to remain sticky in coverage. He hauled in five interceptions and broke up 12 more passes, constantly making his presence felt when the ball was in the air.
If we were playing a game of matchmaker, the prospect-to-team fit that makes the most sense of any first-round pick is Harrison to the Cardinals. Quarterback Kyler Murray won't hesitate to throw the ball up to his receivers in one-on-one situations, and Harrison -- my top-ranked player in this class -- is exactly what's needed on a roster that's still devoid of high-end talent. Plus, Marquise Brown is a free agent and might not be back.
Harrison's combination of hands, body control and route running make him the clear best receiver in a loaded group, and he has a chance to quickly become a top-10 target at the next level. He is coming off back-to-back seasons with 14 touchdowns and more than 1,200 yards at Ohio State.
22. Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
Marvin Harrison Jr. was Arizona's first pick (No. 4), so let's turn to defense here. Rookie third-rounder Garrett Williams has been a pleasant surprise, but Antonio Hamilton Sr. is a free agent and turns 31 years old this month. Jonathan Gannon's defense badly needs cornerback help. Arnold's five interceptions tied for sixth most in the FBS this season, and he is an effortless mover in the secondary, even if his game is still a little raw. He has versatility, too, with experience at safety. Arnold will be a riser over the next few months, and some scouts think he could be the first corner off the board in April.
The Cardinals finished the year with good vibes and a confident Kyler Murray. They are firmly in position to be 2024's version of the Texans: a good, young club that springboards itself to the next level via the draft.
Fashanu is a true anchor tackle to play opposite Paris Johnson Jr., who also could play guard if the Cardinals want to go that route.
21. Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
This feels like a steal — and possibly too low for Latu, the super-productive UCLA edge who once medically retired because of a neck injury. Latu is not going to wow people with his testing, but his move set and hand usage are terrific. He's a rock-solid player who had 64 pressures and a near-25 percent win rate this season.
The Cardinals will likely root hard for quarterbacks to be taken with the first three picks atop the draft, as it's the only way the team can land the premier non-passer in the class. If Harrison is available for Arizona, he's a no-brainer. With the best wide receiver prospect in years paired with emerging standout tight end Trey McBride, Kyler Murray would have the makings of a very impressive receiving corps.
21. Jer'Zhan Newton, IDL, Illinois
Jonathan Gannon surely misses the interior pressure he once could rely on from the Eagles' defense, as Arizona hasn't been able to generate anything from its defensive tackles. Though undersized at 6-2 and 295 pounds, Newton has made a habit of wrestling past blockers and making plays in the backfield.
The NFL regular season ended only a few days ago, but it's never too early to look ahead to the upcoming season.
In the near future, we will post our early 2024 fantasy football rankings. And later in (and throughout) the offseason, we will post full fantasy football mock drafts.
For now, this is an early look at how the first round in fantasy mock drafts could play out this summer.
Note: All references are based on half-PPR scoring, unless stated otherwise.
McCaffrey, fantasy's top-scoring non-QB, nearly doubled up the last RB1 (Saquon Barkley, RB12). Through Week 17, CMC (out Week 18) handled 76% of the team's 446 running back touches (excluding fullback Kyle Juszczyk's 19 touches). A perfect fit within Kyle Shanahan's offense, he led the NFL in touches (339), yards from scrimmage (2,023) and touchdowns (21), and he has finished as a top-three fantasy running back in all four of his full seasons — RB3 (2018), RB1 ('19), RB2 ('22) and RB1 ('23), respectively.
The Vikings started four different quarterbacks in 2023, and Kirk Cousins is slated to become a free agent in March. While the obvious concern for Jefferson's status as fantasy's WR1 is the team's quarterback situation, especially if they don't re-sign Cousins, Jefferson had two of his best games in the final three weeks. A hamstring forced him to miss two months, but Jefferson finished with 140-plus yards in five of 10 games and averaged a career-high 107.4 YPG.
Lamb has been more productive in each successive season, and fantasy's top-scoring wide receiver was the best version of himself from Week 6-18. During that span, Lamb racked up a 108/1,391/11 on 146 targets and added 11/92/2 rushing. The only receiver (barely) within five fantasy points of Lamb (23.2) during that stretch was Miami's Tyreek Hill (18.4).
Through two seasons in Miami, Hill has amassed 238 catches for 3,509 yards and 20 touchdowns with an additional 47 rushing yards and a score. Per PFF, Hill led qualified receivers in yards per route run (3.82) in 2023, and only Nico Collins (3.10), Brandon Aiyuk (3.01), and Justin Jefferson (2.91) were within one yard of him. (Hill led the NFL with 3.07 Y/RR in '22 as well.) While he'll turn 30 in March, there's little reason to expect (much of) a slowdown as he runs it back with Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel in '24.
Although he's the WR4 in this mock, a case could be made for Chase to be drafted as the WR1 this summer. Injuries have slowed him and/or Joe Burrow over the past two seasons, but the 23-year-old (turns 24 in March) receiver already has 268/3,717/29 through 45 career games.
St. Brown had a career season — 112/1,371/9 on 154 targets — and only Lamb and Hill scored more fantasy points this season. While he may not have the weekly ceiling of the receivers listed ahead of him, his consistency stands out. ARSB has four or more catches in all but eight career games, 90-plus yards in 11 of his past 15 games, and the most top-25 half-PPR weeks (14, tied with Lamb) this season.
It was a tale of two seasons for Brown — 67/1,005/6 in 9G before the bye and 39/451/1 in 8G after the bye. Despite the post-bye production dip, Brown finished 2023 with more targets (158) and receptions (106) than he had last year and nearly as many yards (1,456). Squarely in his prime, Brown is a near lock for another 1,400-yard campaign.
Not much went right for the Jets in 2023, although Hall was one of their few bright spots. Hall nearly rushed for 1,000 yards (994), led all running backs in receptions (76) and scored the fourth-most fantasy points (second-most in full-PPR formats) among running backs. With more competent quarterback play next season and being another year removed from his torn ACL, Hall is my preferred choice among non-McCaffrey running backs.
Although he missed several games, Williams averaged 21.7 touches in his 12 games played. In addition, only McCaffrey (11) had more 20-touch games than Williams (nine) this season. He had a minimum of 12.8 fantasy points in all but two games, and he had at least 20 touches and 100 YFS in each of his past seven games. Fantasy managers should expect Williams to continue to get massive workloads in 2024 based on L.A.'s current roster construction.
A tension-filled summer between Taylor and the Colts extended into the season with a four-game PUP stint but ended with a three-year contract extension. While a healthy Anthony Richardson — four rushing touchdowns in four games — could lower his touchdown ceiling and targets (on checkdowns) in 2024, Taylor is one of the most talented young running backs (turns 25 later this month) who could set career highs in YPC given Richardson's rushing threat.
Somewhat of a disappointment compared to his ADP, Robinson's next coach is less likely to under-utilize him the way that (now-fired) Arthur Smith did. An elite talent and a top-10 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Robinson averaged 4.7 yards per carry and was one of five running backs with 30-plus 10-yard runs. Among running backs, he ranked second in targets (86), sixth in receptions (58), fourth in receiving yards (487), and third in receiving touchdowns (four). Without Smith holding him back, Robinson should be a top-five running back in 2024.
Despite sharing the backfield with David Montgomery (RB13), Gibbs ended the year as a top-10 running back. Gibbs actually started slowly — RB36, RB24, RB23, and RB29, respectively, and then two missed games — but finished strong. From Week 7 on, Gibbs was tied with Taylor in fantasy points per game behind Williams and McCaffrey.