Friday, August 17, 2018

2018 Fantasy Football PPR Mock Draft: 12 Teams, 5th Pick

As the saying goes, practice makes perfect. While we may not be able to draft a "perfect" fantasy football team, the more we practice, the better our teams will be.

Starting on July 7th, we began drafting (at least) one fantasy football team per day using the 2018 Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator and we will continue to do so up until the start of the 2018 NFL season.

Each day, we will switch things up -- e.g., PPR vs. standard scoring, league size, draft slot, 2-QB leagues, auction leagues, etc.

In addition, we will centralize links to our daily fantasy football mock drafts for an easy way to keep track of our mock drafts.

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Details of today's mock draft:
  • Scoring: Point-per-reception (PPR) scoring
  • # of Teams: 12
  • Draft Slot: 5
  • Starters: QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, Flex (RB/WR/TE), K, DST
  • Bench Size: 6

With that said, here are the results of today's mock draft:

1.05 - David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals: Missing all but part of Week 1 last year, Johnson is two seasons removed from 2,118 yards from scrimmage, 80 catches and 20 touchdowns. The ambitious goals he set for himself in 2017 -- 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards -- remain his goals for 2018. The order may be debatable, but Johnson is a top-four fantasy back along side Todd Gurley, Le'Veon Bell and Ezekiel Elliott.

2.08 - Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons: Missing two-plus games last season, Freeman still managed to finish as the RB13 after much better seasons in 2015 (RB1) and 2016 (RB6). Over the past three seasons, only Gurley (4,599), Bell (4,522) and LeSean McCoy (4,396) have more yards from scrimmage than Freeman (4,357) and his 35 touchdowns are tied with Gurley for the most over that stretch.

3.05 - Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals: Returning for (at least) another season, Fitzgerald has finished as a top-20 fantasy wide receiver in each of the past three seasons and four of the past five. Incredibly consistent, Fitz has 100-plus receptions and 1,000-plus yards in three consecutive seasons. In PPR formats, he could be a back-end WR1.

4.08 - Golden Tate, WR, Detroit Lions: The eight-year veteran has spent half of his career in Detroit and he has 90-plus catches in each of those four seasons. In addition, he has 1,000-plus yards in three of four including back-to-back seasons. His lack of touchdown production -- 19 over four years in Detroit -- is a drawback, but he's a consistent receiver that gets a boost in PPR formats.

5.05 - Michael Crabtree, WR, Baltimore Ravens: As part of a 1-2 punch with Amari Cooper in Oakland, Crabtree now becomes his team's clear No. 1 wideout. Over the past three seasons, Crabtree has 25 touchdowns -- eight-plus in each of the past three seasons.

6.08 - Jamison Crowder, WR, Washington Redskins: Dealing with a lingering hamstring issue last season, Crowder says he "feel[s] great now." Crowder finished with a 66/789/3 line last season, but Smith and Crowder have demonstrated early rapport that could lead to a true breakout with good health.

7.05 - Rex Burkhead, RB, New England Patriots: Burkhead scored eight touchdowns (in 10 games) as he rushed for 264 yards and added 30 catches for 254 yards in his debut season with the Patriots. Even before Sony Michel had a knee procedure, I had Burkhead to outproduce the rookie. Although I still consider him a value, Burkhead's ADP has been on the rise this month.

8.08 - Sony Michel, RB, New England Patriots: Expectations would be through the roof for most running backs selected in the first round. For the Patriots, however, it's anyone's guess how the workload will be allocated in any given week. Given his draft pedigree (and talent, of course), Michel figures to be heavily involved more often than not and it wouldn't surprise me if he finished as the team's most productive fantasy back (although I have Burkhead ranked ahead of him).

9.05 - Kenny Stills, WR, Miami Dolphins: Over the past two seasons, Stills has 100 catches for 1,573 yards and 15 touchdowns and he's finished as a top-30 receiver in standard-scoring formats both seasons. There may be some game-to-game volatility, but I think he could be Miami's most productive wide receiver in 2018.

10.08 - Kyle Rudolph, TE, Minnesota Vikings: Rudolph's targets dropped year over year (132 to 81), but he still finished as fantasy's TE8 in PPR in 2017. He posted a 57/532/8 stat line last season and those numbers may be a reasonable floor for the veteran tight end.

11.05 - Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions: Interestingly enough, Stafford's lone Pro Bowl season (2014) was the last time that he finished outside the top-10 fantasy quarterbacks. Not counting that QB15 finish in 2014, Stafford has finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in the other six of the past seven seasons. Part of that consistent production is aided by his durability (no missed games over past seven seasons) and the team's reliance on the passing game, but he actually set a seven-year low in pass attempts (565) in 2017. Even so, Stafford threw for 4,446 yards, a four-year high, and 29 touchdowns, tied for the third-most in his career.

12.08 - Peyton Barber, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tampa's leading rusher in 2017 and currently the starter, Barber had 335 rushing yards (15th-most in the NFL) on 78 carries (4.29 YPC) from Weeks 13 to 17.

13.05 - Samaje Perine, RB, Washington Redskins: With rookie Derrius Guice (ACL) out for the season, it's possible that Washington either signs a free agent or trades for a running back. If they don't, however, I'd expect Perine to get the largest share of carrries on early downs.

14.08 - Denver Broncos D/ST

15.05 - Philip Rivers, QB, Los Angeles Chargers: Except for 2012 (21st) and 2016 (14th), Rivers has finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in the eight of his past 10 NFL seasons. On my list of 12 Undervalued Players Compared to Fantasy ADP, Rivers has thrown for at least 4,286 yards and 28 touchdowns in each of the past five seasons.

16.08 - Matt Prater, K, Detroit Lions

- View full mock draft results here

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