Kirk Cousins: Reunited with his former Washington offensive coordinator, Cousins finished as fantasy's QB7 with Kevin O'Connell in his first year as his head coach. That said, Cousins was 11th on a points-per-game basis (among QBs that played at least half the year) as the veteran quarterback set multi-year lows in completion percentage (65.9%), TD% (4.5), yards per attempt (7.1) and passer rating (92.5) in 2022. With the Vikings using a first-round pick on Jordan Addison to complement Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson, Cousins remains a steady back-end QB1 type heading into 2023.
Alexander Mattison: Mattison is poised for a breakout season (or at least a significant bump in workload) with Dalvin Cook released earlier this offseason. The gap between RB1 (Mattison) and RB2 (Ty Chandler, or even Myles Gaskin) is wide enough that there is no real threat to his lead-back role. The fifth-year back has 90-plus rushing yards in five of the six games in which he has played more than 40 offensive snaps.
Justin Jefferson: What more can Jefferson do? Not only has he improved his production in each successive season, but he brokeRandy Moss's record for receiving yards through a player's first three seasons. During those three seasons, he's racked up a total of 324 receptions for 4,825 yards and 25 touchdowns.
Jordan Addison: With Justin Jefferson commanding so much defensive attention, Addison's landing spot is ideal for his ability to make an early impact. While he ran a slower-than-expected 40-yard dash (4.49) at the NFL Combine, the former Biletnikoff Award winner is a polished route-runner with some inside/outside versatility and the ability to win at all three levels.
T.J. Hockenson: Hockenson was traded midseason within the division, and he averaged 8.6 targets and six receptions per game after the trade to the Vikings. Despite the midseason trade, he finished as fantasy's TE2, but part of that was aided by two monster games — 8/179/2 for the Lions in Week 4 and 13/109/2 for the Vikings in Week 16. Other than those two huge games, he had double-digit (half-PPR) fantasy points in only two other games. An ear infection and back stiffness has led to lots of missed time in August, but this type of treatment may be what was necessary to allow him to return to full health.
Kirk Cousins: Reunited with his former Washington offensive coordinator, Cousins finished as fantasy's QB7 with Kevin O'Connell in his first year as his head coach. That said, Cousins was 11th on a points-per-game basis (among QBs that played at least half the year) as the veteran quarterback set multi-year lows in completion percentage (65.9%), TD% (4.5), yards per attempt (7.1) and passer rating (92.5) in 2022. With the Vikings using a first-round pick on Jordan Addison to complement Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson, Cousins remains a steady back-end QB1 type heading into 2023.
Alexander Mattison: Mattison is poised for a breakout season (or at least a significant increase in workload) with Dalvin Cook released earlier this offseason. The fifth-year back has 90-plus rushing yards in five of the six games in which he has played more than 40 offensive snaps.
Justin Jefferson: What more can Jefferson do? Not only has he improved his production in each successive season, but he brokeRandy Moss's record for receiving yards through a player's first three seasons. During those three seasons, he's racked up a total of 324 receptions for 4,825 yards and 25 touchdowns.
Jordan Addison: With Justin Jefferson commanding so much defensive attention, Addison's landing spot is ideal for his ability to make an early impact. While he ran a slower-than-expected 40-yard dash (4.49) at the NFL Combine, the former Biletnikoff Award winner is a polished route-runner with some inside/outside versatility and the ability to win at all three levels.
T.J. Hockenson: Hockenson was traded midseason within the division, and he averaged 8.6 targets and six receptions per game after the trade to the Vikings. Despite the midseason trade, he finished as fantasy's TE2 in half-PPR scoring, but part of that was aided by two monster games — 8/179/2 for the Lions in Week 4 and 13/109/2 for the Vikings in Week 16. Other than those two huge games, he had double-digit (half-PPR) fantasy points in only two other games.
Kirk Cousins: Reunited with his former Washington offensive coordinator, Cousins finished as fantasy's QB7 with Kevin O'Connell in his first year as his head coach. Among quarterbacks that played at least half the season, however, Cousins was 11th on a points-per-game basis as the veteran quarterback set multi-year lows in completion percentage (65.9%), TD% (4.5), yards per attempt (7.1) and passer rating (92.5) in 2022. With the Vikings bolstering its group of pass catchers by drafting Jordan Addison in the first round, Cousins remains a steady back-end QB1 type heading into 2023.
Alexander Mattison: The Vikings released Dalvin Cook this offseason, and Mattison is poised for a breakout season. The fifth-year back has 90-plus rushing yards in five of the six games in which has has played more than 40 offensive snaps.
Ty Chandler: As a direct result of Cook's release, Chandler moves into the backup role to Mattison. Even if the Vikings utilize a committee approach, Chandler and Dewayne McBride are intriguing sleepers late in drafts.
Justin Jefferson: What more can Jefferson do? Not only has he improved his production in each successive season, but he brokeRandy Moss's record for receiving yards through a player's first three seasons. During those three seasons, he's racked up a total of 324 receptions for 4,825 yards and 25 touchdowns.
Jordan Addison: With Justin Jefferson commanding so much defensive attention, Addison's landing spot is ideal for his ability to make an early impact. While he ran a slower-than-expected 40-yard dash (4.49) at the NFL Combine, the former Biletnikoff Award winner is a polished route-runner with some inside/outside versatility and the ability to win at all three levels.
T.J. Hockenson: Hockenson was traded midseason within the division, and he averaged 8.6 targets and six receptions per game after the trade to the Vikings. Despite the midseason trade, he finished as fantasy's TE2, but part of that was aided by two monster games — 8/179/2 for the Lions in Week 4 and 13/109/2 for the Vikings in Week 16. Other than those two huge games, he had double-digit (half-PPR) fantasy points in only two other games.
Buffalo could use some upgrades in front of Josh Allen. The Bills must continue to protect their most valuable asset by steadily investing in the O-line. Torrence will also help this offense in the ground game.
This has to be the year Buffalo pulls the trigger on an every-down back to reduce the rushing load on QB Josh Allen, right? Especially with Devin Singletary's contract expiring? Quite the workhorse, Robinson had more than 3,300 yards from scrimmage over the past two seasons and averaged 6.7 yards per touch.
Robinson is special, and while he is probably one of the best players in this class, he could still be around late in Round 1 because he's a running back. And yes, we know, the Bills used a second-round pick on James Cook a year ago. But Cook isn't an every-down back, and more than that, Nyheim Hines is the only other RB currently on the roster ahead of free agency. Adding a Saquon Barkley-type talent to this offense? There are worse things.
The Bills have some potential key departures on the defensive side of the ball this year and one of them is more than likely to be safety. The safety position for the Bills' defense is such an important position so it's important that replace talent with talent. That's why I believe they draft SAF Brian Branch.
Based on talent, Robinson should be off the board long before this point. If he slides this far, however, the Bills may find it too difficult to pass on his do-everything skill set. Robinson is a tackle-breaking machine with outstanding size, speed, vision and contact balance. He's also dynamic as a receiver.
Robinson was absolutely going to be the pick here, but Branch helps resolve another need. Pro Bowl safety Jordan Poyer is a free agent this offseason. Whether or not he returns, it makes sense to find his successor. Branch is a really intriguing chess piece with his ability to confidently play several roles in the secondary at a high level. Getting Branch this late in the first round feels like a steal.
The Bills might have vacancies on the defensive side of the ball, depending on how free agency plays out for linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and safety Jordan Poyer. But with Devin Singletary also on an expiring deal, Buffalo might look to jumpstart its run game with Gibbs, who rushed 151 times for 926 yards and caught 44 passes for another 444 last season. Bills running backs totaled 1,418 yards on the ground last season, 24th best in the NFL, and only four teams had fewer rushing TDs from that position group (seven).
Gibbs' vision and shiftiness are outstanding, as he can string together multiple cuts to find daylight. The Bills could team him up with James Cook and Nyheim Hines to form a solid backfield and complement what quarterback Josh Allen does when he tucks and runs.
Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde are aging gracefully, but aging nonetheless. Poyer is a free agent after this season with Hyde's contract expiring after the 2023 season. Johnson is a rangy, versatile impact tackler whose size (6-3,195) and athleticism will allow defensive coordinators to get creative.
Josh Allen needs a legitimate deep threat to stretch out defenses, which would also help the team's running game. With Addison still on the board, Bills GM Brandon Beane climbs seven spots, giving up three 2023 picks (a first-, third- and fourth-rounder) to grab the former Biletnikoff Award winner.
Houston instantly adds some firepower for No. 2 selection Bryce Young. The selection of Addison, along with the return of John Metchie III, would give the receiving corps a huge boost.
He can sling it, never better than in 2021 when he won the Heisman Trophy. That season, Young finished with 4,872 yards and 47 TDs through the air. He's accurate (66% completion rate in college) and his career 80-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio is indicative of solid decision-making. Young is highly mobile, though typically buys time to pass and does a nice job keeping his eyes downfield — a la peak Russell Wilson. The combine will officially determine whether he's 6 feet and/or 200 pounds, either figure likely to concern his next team — especially since Young won't be afforded the same level of protection he was at Alabama.
He catches (138 receptions for 1,649 yards over past two seasons), he blocks, he scores (16 TDs over past two seasons), and the 2022 All-American is huge (6-4, 265 pounds). Is there a better way to help a young quarterback and RB Dameon Pierce?
Bryce Young might be historically undersized by successful NFL QB standards but we don't care. He's been that good for Alabama, dragging that team to victory just about every week. And he did it with none of the playmakers that made life so much easier for Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones in previous years.
Addison isn't a big target, but he's one of the most dynamic players in the country who can line up anywhere. The only question is whether Addison or Quentin Johnston will be WR1. Two different body types, two different playing styles, both dominant. The Texans could go OL here to help protect their investment in QB but this class is much deeper at offensive line than top-flight WRs.
With the hiring of DeMeco Ryans to a long-term deal, it appears that the Texans are finally serious about starting a true rebuild. And that rebuild starts with them drafting a franchise QB. C.J. Stroud has plus-level arm talent and is mobile enough to draw up some designed QB-movement plays. Stroud is the first huge puzzle piece in the Texans' rebuild in the Ryans era.
This is the Texans going all in on developing an offensive identity. They added Stroud with their first pick in this NFL mock draft, and with this pick, they select WR Quentin Johnston. At 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds with elite-level speed, Johnston has the ability to become a dominant receiver in the NFL. Adding him to the offensive weapons that the Texans already have on the roster makes the future really exciting.
Although he played better than expected as a third-round rookie in 2021, Davis Mills ranked 29th (or worse) in completion percentage (61%), yards per attempt (6.5) and passer rating (78.8) while tying for a league-worst 15 interceptions thrown last season. It's difficult to envision the Texans not using this pick on a signal-caller, and Young offers plenty of hope for the future of the franchise.
The biggest concern about Young is his size (he's listed at 194 pounds) and the durability risk that comes with it, but he has the ability to lift the play of those around him. Young is always composed, accurate to all three levels, and processes information quickly. His ability to make plays outside of structure stands out.
If the Texans draft Young (or a different quarterback) with their first pick, it would make sense to put as many pieces in place for their young quarterback to be successful early. Addison is not the biggest or strongest receiver, but he has the speed, route-running ability and ball skills to emerge as the team's top receiver early in his career.
In this trade-free mock draft, the Texans are happy to sit back and get their guy at No. 2. Young is the difference-maker this new coaching staff needs to build around. His poise and accuracy are special, and he totally played up to the hype in his two seasons as an SEC starter. The size concerns are valid, but you'd be a fool to talk yourself out of drafting Young.
We got Young at No. 2. Now we're getting a go-to receiver for the franchise QB. It's not hard to upgrade at this spot from last year's crew of Brandin Cooks, Chris Moore, Nico Collins and Phillip Dorsett. Johnston is a freak athlete at 6 foot 4 and 215 pounds who is still just scratching the surface of his pro potential and should impress at the combine. Young can certainly throw it up to Johnston and trust he'll win on 50/50 balls, but the long wideout is also adept at making plays in space.
Like their AFC South foe in Indianapolis, the Texans have to get their new coach -- albeit one with defensive roots in DeMeco Ryans -- a quarterback. They were ahead of only the Colts in scoring (16.1 points per game), and Davis Mills doesn't appear to be the answer. He has nearly as many interceptions as touchdown passes over his two-year career (33-25).
Stroud, meanwhile, finished the 2022 season with an 88.9 QBR and threw 41 touchdown passes to just six picks. His touch, timing and smooth delivery really pop on tape, and we saw flashes of his mobility toward the end of the season. Go watch his outstanding performance against Georgia in the College Football Playoff to see why he's high on NFL teams' boards. Houston does have another first-rounder, so perhaps it can add another target for him, too.
If you draft a quarterback at No. 2 (Stroud), it's smart to set him up to succeed with a strong supporting cast. The run game got a bump from Dameon Pierce this year, the offensive line is solid and John Metchie III should return (recovering from leukemia) to join Brandin Cooks in the receiving corps, but we're talking about the league's worst offense last season (4.8 yards per play). Stroud would need a big-body receiver to go up and get 50-50 balls, stretch the field and produce after the catch. That's Johnston.
If the Texans go this route, they'd be the first team since 2010 to draft a QB and a new receiver for him in the same first round (Denver), per ESPN Stats & Information research.
Coming from the Patriots, GM Nick Caserio never experienced what it was like to draft this high, or need a quarterback really, but the position has to be at the top of his offseason list of priorities. Young has showcased an elite level skillset for two straight seasons — featuring special athleticism and intangibles with a dash of improv — this year with fewer playmakers surrounding him. One of those playmakers was John Metchie, who missed his rookie season for the Texans while being treated for leukemia. Metchie caught 96 balls for 1,142 yards and eight touchdowns his junior year at Alabama with Young under center. Of course, Young's size (5-foot-10, 195 pounds) will be debated, but barring the Chicago Bears staying put to select one of the elite defenders, he is the odds-on favorite to be chosen with the first pick after throwing for 321 yards and five touchdowns in a 45-20 Sugar Bowl victory over Kansas State.
The Texans have needs everywhere, but adding Johnston to a young offensive core that includes Alabama's Young, Metchie, Dameon Pierce and Nico Collins would form a solid foundation. Johnston has drawn comparisons to Cincinnati's Tee Higgins and the Chargers' Mike Williams, but he does Deebo Samuel-like things, forcing missed tackles when he has the ball in his hands — he's 6-foot-4, 215 pounds (Samuel is four inches shorter).
The Texans get their guy with the No. 1 overall pick, swapping spots with the Bears to land Young. Houston sends two picks from the Deshaun Watson trade (Round 3, 2023; Round 1, 2024) and gets a 2023 fifth-rounder back from the Bears to balance the deal. Young's lack of size (6-foot, 194 pounds) might be an issue for some, but his poise, leadership, athleticism and underappreciated throwing velocity give him a chance to be great.
Kancey could be a top-10 pick because of his strength at the point of attack and quickness. But we've seen other smaller tackles land in the middle of the first, such as when Aaron Donald went 13th overall in 2014. New Texans coach DeMeco Ryans is quite familiar with Donald's game from his years in San Francisco, so you have to think he'd love to add a playmaker like Kancey on what will be a revamped Houston defensive line in 2023.
Ozzie Newsome is still in the building, and Alabama players will always be coveted by the Ravens. Baltimore will value Branch's versatility and playmaking ability.
What better way to replace a big, physical corner like Marcus Peters than with a big, physical corner like Ringo ... though he's not the takeaway machine Peters is.
Maryland teammate and fellow CB Jakorian Bennett got much of the buzz in the fall, but Banks but together the type of season that will land you in the top-50 conversation. He's a fluid athlete who is also big, physical corner who can run and match up with NFL wide receivers.
The Ravens hired Todd Monken as their new OC, which seems like a move to help Lamar Jackson. The next move that they need to make is to add some help at the wide receiver position. If Rashod Bateman can stay healthy, the Ravens have a talented young duo with him and Flowers to give Jackson an upgrade at the WR position.
Baltimore's lack of talent at wide receiver was a glaring weakness last season without Marquise Brown (traded during last year's draft) and Rashod Bateman (injured during the season). The Ravens operate a run-centered offense, but Johnston's combination of size and speed would provide the offense with a vertical threat it lacked last season. In turn, his ability to stretch the field would help to create lighter boxes for the run game.
Let's assume for now that Lamar Jackson is coming back in 2023 and get him another pass catcher. The Ravens have some talent at wideout but ended up finishing the season with Demarcus Robinson and Sammy Watkins starting in a playoff game. Smith-Njigba had a tough year, but it's still tough to pass on him here. He looked like a potential top-10 pick going into 2022 before his hamstring injury and still has a bright future as a playmaker in the slot.
This might raise some eyebrows, especially with a handful of Day 1 receivers still on the board, but GM Eric DeCosta could add another outside target to pair with Rashod Bateman and Devin Duvernay via free agency and/or on Day 2. Robinson is my No. 9 prospect, pushed down the board by positional value, and the Ravens lean on the run like few other teams. We've now watched them look to free agents and practice-squaders at running back in back-to-back years, as J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards (both entering the final years of their deals) navigated various injuries. With Robinson available, coach John Harbaugh could make a splash.
Robinson reminds me of Saquon Barkley. He forces missed tackles with ease (FBS-leading 91 in 2022), has burst through rushing lanes and can make plays in the pass game. If Lamar Jackson does indeed end up back in Baltimore, this would form a scary rushing unit for new offensive coordinator Todd Monken.
The Ravens biggest priority this off-season will be to extend Lamar Jackson and add more weapons on offense so he doesn't have to break his back (or overwhelm his legs) carrying the team going forward. The 2021 Biletnikoff Award winner (with Pittsburgh) wasn't as dominant for the Trojans last season, but he's a silky smooth route runner with enough speed to challenge a defense at every level and features inside/outside versatility.
For the third time in five years, the Ravens select a receiver in the first round. After trading Marquise Brown (No. 25 overall, 2019) during Thursday night's festivities last year, Baltimore could be looking for a speedster to play with 2021 first-rounder Rashod Bateman (No. 27). Hyatt possesses the pure speed to stretch defenses vertically.
Would the Bills really draft a back in Round 1? If Devin Singletary walks in free agency, maybe. This offense needs another outlet, and Robinson is one of the top playmakers in this class, a spectacular all-around talent worthy of going much higher.
The Buffalo Bills' season stalled out in the divisional round after scoring a lowly 10 points at home against the Cincinnati Bengals after pass protection issues slowed Josh Allen down. Cody Mauch resembles so much of what we've seen the Bills prefer in prospects. A converted tight end, Mauch became an impact starter at North Dakota State at left tackle where his athleticism, tenacity, and power shined. He could stabilize the left guard spot in Buffalo.
Like last year, it's not like Buffalo desperately needs anything. It has to get a guard, and another wide receiver would be a plus, but those areas can be dealt with later. Branch is a versatile tough guy of a safety who would step right into an already good situation.
Drafting a running back in the first round elicits plenty of reactions, but the Bills are looking for one of those missing pieces, and Robinson is certainly worth it the way he does just about everything at an elite level.
If Dallas isn't going to get in on the mock draft fun, then Buffalo will. Putting Bijan Robinson next to Josh Allen wouldn't seem fair, but it's hardly an impossible outcome. Robinson's playmaking ability is undeniable. It's as good as it gets at running back in this draft.
After the Bills lost to the Bengals in the Divisional Round, the questions about whether their window had closed surfaced.
That still seems a year or two off, but the Bills need to regroup after a tough end to a season that was filled with expectations. One of their more pressing needs entering 2023 is solidifying the interior of the offensive line. Torrence is a physical, imposing force in the run game — something that the Bills could certainly benefit from — and anchors well against power moves in the interior while in pass protection. There is room for improvement, and opinions on him are varied, but he is a solid option for Buffalo at this point in the first round.
The Bills don't have a lot of needs -- and safety, interior offensive line, or even running back (if, say, Bijan Robinson is still sitting there) could be options here. But cornerback could be a target, as well. Cam Smith is a first-round talent who can be a Day 1 contributor.
Look, I know you've seen this one before, but it's too much fun not to manifest. Robinson has been one of the top playmakers in football over the past two seasons. He finished 2022 with a 95.2 overall grade (rushing and receiving) and more than 1,000 yards after contact. He also recorded an incredible .040 missed tackles forced per attempt, which was the fourth-highest rate in the country and the highest among any back with at least 200 carries. His presence would alleviate the need for quarterback Josh Allen to rush as much as he does, highly impact the Bills' rushing attack and improve their passing game.
The Bills have one of the league's best rosters, but they could lose a few defenders in free agency, including Jordan Poyer, Tremaine Edmunds and Shaq Lawson. They need to restock in this draft. And even though Buffalo has used first- or second-round picks on Greg Rousseau, Boogie Basham and AJ Epenesa in the past three drafts, its depth on the edge has to get better. That's why I see Hall, who had 15.5 sacks over the past two seasons, as a stellar fit on Day 1. He could turn into a steal here.
On the other side of the ball, I almost went with offensive tackle Cody Mauch (North Dakota State), who could play guard early in his career before becoming the team's long-term left tackle. Guard O'Cyrus Torrence (Florida) could be another option.
Jordan Poyer will be 32 by the start of next season, so if the Bills wanted to let him walk in free agency, Brian Branch would be a viable replacement. Not the most heralded on the Alabama defense, Branch did a little bit of everything for the Crimson Tide.
Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde are aging gracefully, but aging nonetheless. Poyer is a free agent after this season with Hyde's contract expiring after the 2023 season. Johnson is a rangy, versatile impact tackler whose size (6-3,195) and athleticism will allow defensive coordinators to get creative.
Having led the nation in yards from scrimmage (1,894), NFL scouts are impressed with Robinson's entire repertoire as a complete running back. Aside from his instinctive running style and next level burst past flailing defenders, evaluators rave about Robinson's pass protection skill set and willingness to block. Yes, Robinson is an adept pass catcher and accomplished runner, but it'll be his pass blocking that could make him a day one starter.
Another year, another running back being mocked to the Bills. However, Robinson is probably one of the 10 most talented players in the entire draft. The only reason he falls here is due to positional value.
The Bills could stand to add another weapon for Josh Allen so that the red zone issues are resolved.
Jordan Addison has game-breaking speed, and he had an incredible 2021 campaign with 17 touchdowns. He's a major reason why Kenny Pickett was drafted in the first round.
This strays from the "type" the Bills have liked at receiver of late, but Washington would provide Buffalo with serious YAC capabilities because of his strength and unshaken equilibrium through contact.
Shaky play on the interior has been one of the Bills' few glaring issues, and the team is past due for a meaningful investment at guard. Torrence is a bulldozer in the run game, though he might be a liability early on in pass protection.
The Buffalo Bills already feature one of the NFL's most talented and deepest rosters. Texas' Bijan Robinson, meanwhile, is a top-five talent among the incoming class, when positional value is taken out of the mix.
A possible plummet on draft day shouldn't be totally unexpected, since organizations simply don't value running backs the way they once did. Devin Singletary may be an upcoming free agent, but the Bills already traded for Nyheim Hines prior to this season's deadline. Even so, Robinson is simply too good to pass up late in the first round.
"Robinson changes the dynamic of the Bills offense," Klassen declared. "The reigning Doak Walker Award winner is an explosive and complete back.
"As a runner, Robinson brings better balance, acceleration and long-speed than anyone the Bills have right now. Robinson is also exceptional at softening blows and navigating tight spaces, with the type of skill set that consistently moves a 2nd-and-8 to a more manageable 2nd-and-6.
"More importantly, Robinson solves Buffalo's unending search for a great third-down back. Robinson is a tough, smart pass protector and he's about as nimble as a 220-pound running back can be in the passing game."
A set of triplets in Robinson, quarterback Josh Allen and wide receiver Stefon Diggs just might morph the Bills into the game's best offense, since they've already been setting on the precipice over the last few years.
Buffalo will have some questions at safety this off-season, and Branch is a player with the versatility, athleticism and toughness to play anywhere in the secondary.
With Tremaine Edmunds set to become a free agent this offseason, the Bills may opt for new blood at linebacker. Simpson has elite range that would pair nicely next to Matt Milano. He allowed only 353 yards in the past two seasons combined.
