Sunday, November 5, 2017

Week 9 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Yanotchko)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are Dan Yanotchko's Week 9 NFL picks against the spread:
Los Angeles Rams -4.5 over New York Giants (4 Units)

So this is one of those lines that make you scratch your head, as the Rams are certainly a superior team, but why is the spread so close? I know everyone loves to point to the West Coast team playing at 1 PM vibe, but I think the Rams will go into New Jersey and get the win. The Giants have been pretty bad on defense all year, as they allow opposing running backs to gain 120.7 yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry. Also, they have a pretty shabby pass defense as well, as they allow 259 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, and they have given up 14 touchdowns as well. This will be a heavy usage of Todd Gurley day, combined with a patchwork Giants receiving corps, just does not bode well for them on the day.

Seattle Seahawks -7.5 over Washington Redskins (4 Units)

This is a game where if Washington was healthy, I would expect fireworks on offense just like last week Seahawks vs. Texans game. Sadly, Washington is really banged up on the offensive line, and while Seattle does have minimal sacks so far this year, they will be able to capitalize against the Redskins patchwork offensive line. Not only will the line have trouble holding up, I don't expect a big day by Kirk Cousins against the Legion of Boom, as they only allow opposing quarterbacks a 56.5% completion percentage. I think the Seahawks just have too much for Washington, and also will look for Russell Wilson to exploit a passing defense that gives up 217 yards per game. Seattle will get back defensively on track here, and I expect minimal points from Washington.

Arizona Cardinals -2.5 over San Francisco 49ers (5 Units)

I think the biggest splash and cheers will not be during this game at all, but rather pre-game when new 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garapolo is introduced. In probably the worst quarterback duel game of the year, we will get Drew Stanton going against rookie C.J. Bethard, making his second start. Since this is the case, I am looking at Adrian Peterson to have massive usage this game, as the 49ers allow opposing rusthers 131.8 yards per game and nine touchdowns on the year. San Francisco's secondary is not much better, as they give up 250 yards passing per game, so even Drew Stanton should exploit them. The Cardinals need this game to keep the playoff hopes alive, and therefore should win going away.

- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

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