Saturday, November 24, 2018

Week 12 Fantasy Football: Quarterbacks Start'em, Sit'em

Ultimately, the decision of which player to start is largely determined by the composition of your roster (as well as your league's settings).

As an example, Jameis Winston is listed below as a "start" for Week 12. And I'd feel comfortable going into Week 12 with him as my starting quarterback.

That said, he may be a sit for your team.

In other words, if you owned both Andrew Luck and Winston, you should start Luck -- and in turn, bench Winston.

So while you won't find absolute start-sit recommendations below (use my Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings for that instead), the goal here is to highlight some players that I like (and would feel comfortable starting) as well as some players that I dislike for this week (and would prefer to keep on my bench).

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Week 12 Fantasy Football QB Start'em

QB - Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. SF)

It's been virtually a two-outcome scenario with Tampa's starting quarterback this season: (1) finish as a weekly top-10 fantasy quarterback or (2) get benched. In fact, Week 10 was the only time that the starter finished the game and did not finish as a top-10 weekly performer.

Despite the obvious risk that Winston could implode and get benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick, he has a ton of upside assuming a full game. While his interception rate (6.7 percent) is more than double his career average (3.2 percent), Winston has a 65.9 completion rate, 4.9-percent TD rate and is averaging 8.4 Y/A, all of which are career highs.

In games where opposing quarterbacks have thrown 30-plus attempts against them, the 49ers have allowed multiple passing scores in all seven instances. Not only have the 49ers have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, but the Bucs are the favorites of the game with the highest over-under (of remaining games) this week.

QB - Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (vs. OAK)

In his debut as a starter for Joe Flacco (hip), the dual-threat quarterback was more runner (26 attempts) than passer (19 attempts). Although he didn't account for a touchdown and threw for just 150 yards, his rushing production means that he still scored 15.9 fantasy points and finished as the QB13.

While he's unlikely to run it as often in Week 12, Jackson has a solid floor to his rushing ability with plenty of upside in a soft matchup. Based on DVOA from Football Outsiders, the Raiders rank 32nd (i.e., dead last) in Pass DVOA through Week 11.

QB - Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. NYG)

Week 11 was a week to forget for Wentz and the Eagles. Throwing for 156 yards, no touchdowns and three interceptions, Wentz failed to score a (full) fantasy point. Before last week, however, he threw multiple touchdowns with more than 275 passing yards in six consecutive games. One of those games was a 21-point win over the Giants where he threw for 278 yards and three touchdowns. This sets up as a good spot for a bounce-back performance.

Week 12 Fantasy Football QB Sit'em


QB - Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. ARI)

Throwing it 43 times in last week's loss to the Broncos, Rivers had his second 400-yard game of the season. In addition, he has thrown multiple touchdowns in every game this season. Before last week's loss, however, the Chargers had won six consecutive games and Rivers had a five-game streak of 27 or fewer pass attempts.

As double-digit favorites against the Cardinals in Week 12, game script should lead to a run-heavy attack where Rivers and the Bolts take their foot off the gas early in this one. In part because of how bad they've been, the Cardinals have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (and fourth-most to running backs).

QB - Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. CLE)

Since Week 5, Dalton has zero 300-yard games and has averaged 211.5 yards per game over that stretch. Over that six-game span, Dalton has nine touchdowns and four interceptions. Especially if A.J. Green (toe, questionable) misses another game, it could be a quiet day for Dalton, who has averaged 14.08 fantasy points per game since Week 5.

- More Fantasy Football Start'em, Sit'em for Week 12

Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings:
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