Monday, September 7, 2020

12-Team Half-PPR Fantasy Football Mock Draft (5th Pick)

The best way to become good at something is to practice. So, what should you do if you want to draft a better fantasy football team?

Practice, of course!

Leading up to the start of the 2020 NFL season, we will use the 2020 Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator (powered by FantasyPros) to complete fantasy football mock drafts.

We will use a variety of scoring formats -- PPR, half-PPR, standard scoring and even 2-QB leagues, league sizes and draft slots. The goal is to give you a good representation of the team that you may be able to construct given your league settings and the rationale of why we made the picks we did.

+ Our mocks will be tracked here: Fantasy Football Mock Drafts.

That said, nothing beats practicing yourself so (check out the simulator) and complete a mock in a matter of minutes.

Without further ado, here are the picks of our 12-team 2020 fantasy football mock draft using half-PPR scoring with the 5th pick:

1.05 - Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints

Injury forced him to miss a couple of games in the middle of the season and limited his effectiveness down the stretch, but Kamara still finished as fantasy's RB9 on a per-game basis in 2019. One of the league's most talented receivers out of the backfield, Kamara has exactly 81 catches in each of his three seasons, but he averaged a career-high 5.8 receptions per game last year. Kamara, who scored a touchdown per every 15.35 touches in his first two NFL seasons, could be the benefactor of some positive touchdown regression as that number plummeted to one score per every 42 touches in 2019.

2.08 - Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers

Missing four games apiece in his first two seasons, Jones played a full 16-game slate and delivered for fantasy owners as only Christian McCaffrey scored more fantasy points at the position in 2019. While Jamaal Williams remained involved, Jones racked up 1,558 scrimmage yards and scored a whopping 19 total touchdowns. Instead of drafting help for Aaron Rodgers and the passing offense, the Packers invested a high pick (second-rounder) in a 247-pound running back that will likely steal a few (especially valuable goal-line) carries from Jones.

3.05 - Chris Carson, RB, Seattle Seahawks

Carson (hip) has declared himself "100% healthy and will be ready to go for Week 1. Playing 15 games last season, Carson handled a career-high 315 touches for 1,496 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns.

4.08 - Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks

While the Seahawks rank near the bottom of the league in pass attempts every year, Lockett is one of the most efficient receivers in the NFL and saw a significant uptick in target share (21.3% in 2019 vs. 16.4% in 2018) with the retirement of Doug Baldwin. Despite playing through injury in the middle of the season, Lockett set career highs in targets (110), receptions (82) and yards (1,057) in 2019. The 5'10" receiver led the NFL in red-zone targets (23) in 2019.

5.05 - DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins

It was the unconvential fifth-year breakout for Parker, who shattered previous career highs with 72 catches on 128 targets for 1,202 yards and nine touchdowns. Over the final eight games with UDFA Preston Williams sidelined, Parker was at his best -- 44/802/5 on 76 targets in eight games without Williams; 28/400/4 on 52 targets with him. Given the opt outs of the 2020 NFL season by Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns, the duo of Parker and Williams may see an even larger target share with Wilson and Hurns sitting 2020 out.

6.08 - A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Green has missed at least six games in three of the last four seasons including the entire 2019 season. The obvious risks are Green's durability history as well as the difficulty of establishing chemistry with a rookie quarterback in such an unorthodox offseason, but there is upside from his low-end WR2/high-end WR3 ADP as well. In 2018, Green averaged 5.1/77.1/0.7 per game, equivalent to a full-season pace of 82/1,234/11.

7.05 - Evan Engram, TE, New York Giants

Durability has been an issue for Engram, who has missed at least five games in each of the past two seasons and had Lisfranc surgery in December. When he was on the field in 2019, however, he averaged 5.5 catches and 58.4 yards per game, both of which were career highs. SNY TV's Ralph Vacchiano described Engram "as quick and as explosive as ever" and wrote that the Giants "think he’s a guy who could top 80 catches and 1,000 yards easily."

8.08 - Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Football Team

Gibson possesses a superior combination of athleticism (4.39 forty) for his size (228 pounds) and broke tackles at a ridiculous rate (33 on 77 career touches) at Memphis. With both Derrius Guice and Adrian Peterson released, the (early) third-rounder enters 2020 atop the team's fantasy depth chart at running back. Earlier this offseason, Ron Rivera said Gibson has "a skill set like Christian (McCaffrey)."

9.05 - Phillip Lindsay, RB, Denver Broncos

The former UDFA has begun his career with back-to-back seasons with 1,000 rushing yards and 35 catches. As productive as he has been, he moves down a spot on the depth chart as the team signed Melvin Gordon in free agency.

10.08 - Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Coming off multi-year lows in completion percentage (60.8, six-year low), TD% (3.9, 11-year low) and Y/A (6.6, 18-year low), things are looking up for Brady in terms of his fantasy outlook as he replaces Jameis Winston in Tampa's high-powered offense. While the team should play with more leads and Brady likely won't lead the NFL in pass attempts (like Winston did in 2019), he inherits a supporting cast loaded with talented pass-catchers -- Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard, (an unretired) Rob Gronkowski, etc. In addition, we have argued that Brady is undervalued in 2020 drafts.

11.05 - Boston Scott, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Effective down the stretch, Scott racked up 350 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns and hauled in 23-of-25 targets over the final four games of the season. While Miles Sanders is "the guy," Scott should get 8-10 touches per week with many of those touches being high-value receptions.

12.08 - Chris Thompson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

With Jacksonville releasing Leonard Fournette, it opens the door for a substantial workload for Armstead (and the team's other backs). Fournette's release may not lead to a significant increase in carries for Thompson, but the third-down back could approach or exceed 50 receptions if he can stay healthy. Reunited with Jay Gruden, Thompson has at least 35 receptions in five consecutive seasons, but he has also missed five or more games in each of the past three years. While durability has been a challenge for Thompson, the third-down back has averaged 3.43 receptions per game (equivalent to 54.93 per 16 games) over that five-year stretch.

13.05 - Mike Gesicki, TE, Miami Dolphins

Gesicki is athletic freak -- 4.54 forty and 41.5" vertical -- at tight end and he had a breakout second season, aided by additional opportunities with the season-ending injury to UDFA receiver Preston Williams. Gesicki had five-plus targets in all eight games without Williams but only five-plus in just three of eight with him. More big slot than tight end, Gesicki finished his sophomore campaign as fantasy's TE11. Especially considering the team's WR3/WR4 are sitting 2020 out, Gesicki has the potential to take another significant step forward in year three.

14.08 - Devine Ozigbo, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Fournette's release opens up a huge opportunity for the rest of the team's backs as his 341 touches are no longer on the roster. It's not a lock that Armstead handles the majority of early-down work following Fournette's release and Ozigbo is worthwhile pick in the double-digit rounds. An additional concern for both Armstead and Ozigbo is the impact that negative game script could have on the unit's production.

15.05 - New England Patriots DST

16.08 - Zane Gonzalez, K, Arizona Cardinals

- View Full Mock Draft Results

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