Saturday, October 24, 2020

Fantasy Football Start'Em, Sit'Em: Week 7 QBs

The decision on which player to start, or sit, largely comes down to the options on your roster (and/or possibly the players available on your league's waiver wire).

As an example, Justin Herbert is listed below as a "start" for Week 7. And we'd certainly be comfortable going into Week 7 with him as our starting quarterback.

Then again, Herbert may be a "sit" for your team.

In other words, if you own both Patrick Mahomes and Herbert, you should start Mahomes and, in turn, bench Herbert.

For a more direct answer on whether we would start Player X over Player Y, check our Week 7 Fantasy Football Rankings. Instead of making those direct comparisons, the goal here is to highlight players that we like, or dislike, for the week.

Week 7 Fantasy Football QB Start'em

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. JAX)

Since becoming a surprise starter in Week 2, Herbert, the sixth-overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, has exceeded even the most optimistic expectations. In all of his four starts, the former Oregon Duck has thrown for 300-plus yards and/or accounted for multiple touchdowns. The rookie has scored 22-plus fantasy points in three of four games. Averaging nearly 300 passing yards per game (298.8), Herbert has accounted for 10 touchdowns -- nine passing and one rushing -- while only turning the ball over four times -- three interceptions and one lost fumble.

Perhaps negative game script will adversely impact Herbert's Week 7 fantasy outlook as the Jags have lost five consecutive games including three of the past four by more than 15 points. During five-game losing streak, Jacksonville has faced an average of fewer than 30 weekly pass attempts.

That said, no team has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete a higher percentage of their pass attempts (73.44%) than the Jaguars and only the Falcons have surrendered more yards per attempt (8.56). The Chargers currently project to score the sixth-most points of the week based on implied totals from Vegas odds.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (at HOU)

Tempered expectations entering 2020 (Aaron Rodgers' ADP) means that Aaron Rodgers often went undrafted in fantasy drafts. The future first-ballot HOFer had a dud in Tampa following Green Bay's Week 5 bye, but he was lights out to start the season.

Over the first four games of the season, Rodgers averaged 303.5 passing yards per game as he compiled a combined 13-to-none TD-INT ratio. During that stretch, he finished as a top-six fantasy quarterback in three of four games.

Heading into Week 7, no team is projected to score more points than the Packers, who own the week's highest implied total based on Vegas odds. Entering this week, the Texans have allowed the eighth-most passing yards per attempt (7.73) and sixth-most passing TD% (6.37%).

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (at ATL)

Entering Week 7, Stafford has yet to throw for 300 yards in a game this season. Before this year, the 12-year veteran has thrown for 300-plus yards in 48 (31.6%) of 152 games (counting the playoffs). This week figures to be an ideal scenario for him to reach that weekly milestone for the first time in 2020.

No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Atlanta has allowed the most passing yards per attempt (8.67), second-most passing TD% (7.53%) and second-most completion percentage (71.97%).

The Falcons have allowed five 300-yard passers in their six games. The exception was Week 3 vs. Chicago, where the Bears benched Mitchell Trubisky (128 yards) for Nick Foles (188 yards) and the duo combined for more than 300 yards and four passing scores. In fact, that was also the only game that the Falcons did not allow 20-plus fantasy points to an opposing quarterback, but the duo combined to score a total of 28.84 points.

Week 7 Fantasy Football QB Sit'em

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (vs. CAR)

On a positive note, Brees has either thrown for 300-plus yards or multiple touchdowns in every game this season, but he's yet to do both in the same game. Finishing no better than QB9 in Week 3, Brees has finished as the QB19 or worse in three of five games.

While he rushed for a one-yard touchdown in Week 5, Brees is mostly a non-factor as a runner with minus two yards on the season. Posting gaudy passing statistics appears unlikely this week as the Panthers have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and Brees will be without both Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders this week.

Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams (vs. CHI)

Goff has had three excellent fantasy outings (23.98 points or more) and three poor fantasy outings (14.92 points or less). In a matchup against the stingiest fantasy defense to opposing quarterbacks, this week's performance could be disappointing. Aside from the 49ers-Patriots game, no other game has a lower total than the Rams-Bears game (45.0).

Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns (at CIN)

Even in a week where the Browns are projected to be one of the top eight scoring offenses of the week, it's impossible to trust Mayfield. In fact, the former No. 1 overall pick is barely a viable starter as a QB2 in two-QB leagues as our 24th-ranked quarterback of the week.

The first time this season that the Browns faced the Bengals (Week 2), Mayfield scored 15.26 fantasy points to finish as the weekly QB20. That was nearly his best performance of the season as he has yet to score more than 15.58 fantasy points this season. He's finished as the QB20 or worse in all but one game this season and his Week 2 performance (219 yards) was one of only two games in which he exceeded the 200-yard passing mark.

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