Saturday, November 21, 2020

Week 11 Fantasy Football TE Start'em, Sit'em

The decision on which player to start, or sit, largely comes down to the options on your roster (and/or possibly the players available on your league's waiver wire).

As an example, Eric Ebron is listed below as a "start" for Week 11. And I'd certainly be comfortable going into Week 11 with him as my starting tight end.

Then again, Ebron may be a "sit" for your team.

In other words, if you own both Travis Kelce and Ebron, you should start Kelce and, in turn, bench Ebron.

For a more direct answer on whether we would start Player X over Player Y, check our Week 11 Fantasy Football Rankings. Instead of making those direct comparisons, the goal here is to highlight players that we like, or dislike, for the week.

Week 11 Fantasy Football TE Start'em

Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh Steelers (at JAX)

Like many others at the position, Ebron has been a TD-dependent play at tight end. In nine games this season, Ebron has finished as a top-12 fantasy tight end in each of the three games in which he's scored while finishing outside the top 12 in the other six games that he hasn't scored.

On a positive note, Ebron has a minimum of five targets in four consecutive games and in seven of his past eight games. Scoring in two of his past three games, he gets a favorable matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. The Jaguars have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season.

Jacksonville has allowed seven touchdowns on 37 receptions to opposing tight ends and that 18.92% TD% to the position is the highest in the NFL. Meanwhile, only the Seattle Seahawks (15.14) have allowed more Y/R to opposing tight ends this season than the Jaguars (14.08) entering the week.

In addition, the Steelers have one of the week's highest implied totals. Excluding Thursday Night Football, no team has a higher projected total than the Steelers although the line is currently off in the Kansas City Chiefs-Las Vegas Raiders game.

Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. NYJ)

Drafted to perform much better than he has, Henry enters Week 11 as the TE13 in half-PPR scoring. Henry began the season with three consecutive 5/50 performances and averaged nearly 70 yards per game (68.7) over that span. Since then, however, he has failed to reach the 40-yard mark in each of his past five games.

One positive for Henry is that he has a total of 20 targets and a minimum of six per game over the team's past three games. In addition, he has four catches in three of his past four games and two touchdowns over that same span.

Like with the entire team in a matchup against the winless New York Jets, Henry gets a boost in a matchup that the Chargers are expected to put up a lot of points. Meanwhile, Henry's matchup is favorable as the Jets have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to the position this season. Only three teams have allowed a higher TD% on TE receptions than the Jets (15.0%) this season.

Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team (vs. CIN)

Thomas had four catches for a season-high 66 yards on six targets in Week 10. The former quarterback now has both of his 60-yard games this season over his past three games. Even so, he has been steady throughout the year. Thomas has a minimum of four targets in every game and ranks ninth among the position in targets (52) this season.

Only the Atlanta Falcons have allowed more fantasy points to the position than the Cincinnati Bengals this season. Over their past five games, the Bengals have allowed three tight ends to finish as a weekly top-three performer.

Week 11 Fantasy Football TE Sit'em

Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers (at IND)

Few tight ends have as many weekly top-five performances this season as Tonyan (three). That said, the sleeper tight end has generally struggled over his past five games: TE26, TE28, TE5, TE44 and TE18, respectively.

With Davante Adams, there is a clear top dog as Aaron Rodgers' go-to receiver, but the team will likely get Allen Lazard back from IR this week. That alone doesn't make Tonyan a sit, but it will likely have the effect of spreading out the targets a little further.

In terms of matchups, the Indianapolis Colts have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season. While the Colts have allowed their only two top-10 finishes to the position in their past three games, they have yet to allow a tight end catch a touchdown pass yet this season.

Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams (at TB)

Higbee was absolutely dominant last December -- not just as a tight end, but amongst all pass-catchers. Perhaps we can blame it on 2020 (like everything else), but the fifth-year tight end has failed to carry over that late-season momentum into this season.

On a positive note, Higbee's 56 yards in Week 6 and 60 yards in Week 10 mean that his two highest weekly yardage totals have come within the last three games that he has played. In addition, his six targets in Week 10 were a season high. Until we see more consistency, however, it's difficult to trust Higbee as our starting tight end in a matchup against a good Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense.

Trey Burton, Indianapolis Colts (vs. GB)

In the two games before and after the team's Week 7 bye, Burton scored a total of three touchdowns -- one receiving and two rushing. Over the past three weeks, however, Burton has only seven receptions for 39 yards combined. Given the low volume recently, the expected return of Jack Doyle (concussion) and the difficult matchup for the team (third-fewest FPA to TEs), Burton is a low-end TE2 for Week 11.

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