Showing posts with label Eric Ebron. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Eric Ebron. Show all posts

Saturday, September 11, 2021

Pittsburgh Steelers Week 1 NFL Power Rankings Roundup

Throughout the 2021 NFL season, we will compile a consensus NFL Power Rankings that averages the rankings of all 32 NFL teams.

Here is where the Pittsburgh Steelers rank in terms of average, best and worst:

  • Average ranking: 14.2 (12th)
  • Best ranking: 10th (NFL.com)
  • Worst ranking: 21st (USA Today)

Below you will find a Week 1 roundup for the Steelers in our consensus 2021 NFL Power Rankings.

ESPN -- Rank: 21

Person on the hot seat: TE Eric Ebron

Signed in free agency a year ago, Ebron was brought in to be a red zone threat. But he struggled with drops last season, he wasn't a significant help as a blocker and his production -- five touchdowns and 558 yards -- didn't meet expectations. The Steelers drafted Penn State tight end Pat Freiermuth in the second round, and he has been a standout in camp as a receiver and a blocker. Ebron has been sidelined with elbow soreness, giving Freiermuth more first-team reps. The rookie could not only push Ebron, an unrestricted free agent after this season, for a starting job, but also could bump him off the roster. -- Brooke Pryor

NFL.com -- Rank: 11

Ben Roethlisberger carved up the Lions' secondary in his final appearance of the preseason, delivering the type of downfield throws that had become all but extinct for the Pittsburgh attack during the team's infamous late-season fade in 2020. Roethlisberger regularly threw beyond the sticks against Detroit, showing hopeful Steelers fans he still possesses some zip in his arm and the gunslinger mentality that made him such a fun watch in his heyday. The Steelers won't compete in the rugged AFC North unless the 39-year-old Roethlisberger can crank back the clock. It's a major AFC subplot to watch as a new season dawns.

CBS Sports -- Rank: 10

Ben Roethlisberger is back, and he's looked good so far. But the biggest question is the offensive line. They made big changes there. The defense will be outstanding again.

USA Today -- Rank: 14.2

OLB T.J. Watt's contract impasse is perhaps one of preseason's more underappreciated stories, his availability for the opener increasingly in doubt.

The Athletic -- Rank: 10

Why they're ranked here: Like the Chargers, the Steelers made a short climb after the preseason, up two spots from No. 14 to No. 12. So, what changes have we seen in Pittsburgh that could have led to this bump? The Steelers added linebacker Joe Schobert in a trade from Jacksonville, and he should see significant playing time. And in limited preseason action, Ben Roethlisberger's arm looked alive, which is better than it was at several points last season.

One big question: Will the offensive line be effective? That was one of the dominant storylines during camp, and it still isn't settled. The Pittsburgh line is young and fairly unproven and does not appear to have much depth behind the starting five. Week 1 will be an interesting matchup for that new group, as we'll get to see the Bills' new pass rush (featuring first-round pick Greg Rousseau) for the first time.

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Sunday, August 29, 2021

2021 Fantasy Football Projections: Pittsburgh Steelers

Our 2021 Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2021 fantasy football projections for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDPoints
Ben Roethlisberger604.8390.14233.630.5410.2826.227.50.26275.25
Mason Rudolph4225.9281.41.950.954.45.50.0217.83

Ben Roethlisberger: After re-signing JuJu Smith-Schuster to a one-year deal, Pittsburgh and Roethlisberger return one of the league's best wide receiver trios. In addition, only the one-win Jaguars (66.2%) threw it on a larger percentage of plays than the 12-win Steelers (65.48%) in 2020.

Not pushing the ball down the field the way he had in the past, Big Ben's 9.5 Y/C and 6.3 Y/A in 2020 were the lowest of his career (excluding a two-game 2019 season). Part of that was by design and The Athletic's Ed Bouchette highlights why those peripherals may be better in 2021.

Given that the Steelers used their first-round pick to draft Najee Harris, Alabama's all-time leading rusher, fantasy managers should expect a greater emphasis towards the run in 2021 even though Harris offers a three-down skill set that Roethlisberger could utilize in the passing game.

RUNNING BACKS

PlayerAtt.YardsTDRec.YardsTDPoints
Najee Harris271.21166.2853408.62.6247.58
Benny Snell52.5212.61.319.265.50.241.47
Anthony McFarland Jr.39.4161.50.856.751.90.331.59
Kalen Ballage24.197.60.65.840.60.322.12
Derek Watt1.130.021.290.12.52

Najee Harris: The all-time career rushing leader in Alabama history, Harris rushed for 1,466 yards and 26 touchdowns and added 43 receptions for 425 yards and four more scores last season. With few holes in his game, Harris will step in as a Week 1 workhorse. Given the team's propensity to feature its lead back, Harris has the chance to outperform his ADP.

Benny Snell: There is competition on the depth chart, but Snell -- or whichever back ultimately slides into the RB2 role -- would become a top waiver-wire add if Harris were to miss any time, especially given how the team historically features one back.

WIDE RECEIVERS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Diontae Johnson88.89736.93.314.90.02184.71
Chase Claypool69.3952.7710.935.40.87180.68
JuJu Smith-Schuster79871.46.5000165.64
James Washington24.1336.43.300065.49
Ray-Ray McCloud15.4151.30.44.4330.0929.07

Diontae Johnson: Tied with Davante Adams and Keenan Allen, no receiver had more games with double-digit targets than Johnson (10). The second-year receiver averaged only 10.5 Y/R, but he turned his 144 targets into 88 catches for 923 yards and five touchdowns. While he needs to cut down on the drops, Johnson should be one of the league's most-targeted wideouts in 2021 even though the team re-signed JuJu Smith-Schuster.

Chase Claypool: Claypool scored 11 touchdowns -- nine receiving and two rushing -- in the regular season and added two more receiving scores in the team's playoff loss to Cleveland. Re-signing JuJu Smith-Schuster to a one-year deal takes some steam out of Mapletron's upside in year two, but it wouldn't surprise me if he performed as the team's most productive wideout in 2021.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: After averaging 65.5 and 89.1 yards per game, respectively, in his first two seasons with the Steelers, Smith-Schuster has averaged 46.0 and 51.9 per game in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The Steelers re-signed Smith-Schuster to a one-year contract and he is a WR3 (both in fantasy and on his own team).

TIGHT ENDS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Eric Ebron45.3467.33.900092.78
Pat Freiermuth16164.80.900029.88
Zach Gentry2.122.60.10003.91

Eric Ebron: In his first season with the Steelers, Ebron finished with 56 catches for 558 yards and five touchdowns. Given the team's talented trio of wide receivers and the likelihood that the Steelers run more often in 2021, Ebron's year-over-year numbers will likely dip.

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Monday, August 9, 2021

Fantasy Football Projections 2021: Pittsburgh Steelers

Our 2021 Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2021 fantasy football projections for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDPoints
Ben Roethlisberger604.8390.14233.630.5410.2826.227.50.26275.25
Mason Rudolph4225.9281.41.950.954.45.50.0217.83

Ben Roethlisberger: With Pittsburgh re-signing JuJu Smith-Schuster to a one-year deal, Roethlisberger has one of the league's best wide receiver trios at his disposal. Only the one-win Jaguars (66.2%) threw it on a larger percentage of plays than the 12-win Steelers (65.48%) in 2020, per Team Rankings.

At this stage of his career, however, he no longer pushes the ball down the field -- his 9.5 Y/C and 6.3 Y/A were the lowest of his career (excluding a two-game 2019 season). The Athletic's Ed Bouchette highlights why those peripherals may be better in 2021, but given that the Steelers used their first-round pick to draft Najee Harris, Alabama's all-time leading rusher, fantasy managers should expect a greater shift towards the run in 2021.

RUNNING BACKS

PlayerAtt.YardsTDRec.YardsTDPoints
Najee Harris273.41175.68.0753.2419.92.8251.37
Benny Snell54.7221.51.379.265.50.242.72
Jaylen Samuels24.195.20.312.5880.428.77
Anthony McFarland Jr.35143.50.475.236.10.123.98
Derek Watt1.130.02190.12.42

Najee Harris: The all-time career rushing leader in Alabama history, Harris rushed for 1,466 yards and 26 touchdowns and added 43 receptions for 425 yards and four more scores last season. With few holes in his game, Harris will step in as a Week 1 workhorse. Given the team's propensity to feature its lead back, Harris has the chance to outperform his ADP.

Benny Snell: While there is some competition on the depth chart, Snell -- or whichever back ultimately slides into the RB2 role -- would become a top waiver-wire add if the team's first-round rookie misses any time given how the team historically features one back.

WIDE RECEIVERS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Diontae Johnson87.4957.26.83.314.90.02181.83
Chase Claypool68.6948.26.810.935.40.87178.68
JuJu Smith-Schuster75.9869.16.5000163.86
James Washington24.1336.43.400066.09
Ray-Ray McCloud15.4133.20.44.4330.0927.26

Diontae Johnson: Tied with Davante Adams and Keenan Allen, no receiver had more games with double-digit targets than Johnson (10). The second-year receiver averaged only 10.5 Y/R, but he turned his 144 targets into 88 catches for 923 yards and five touchdowns. While he needs to cut down on the drops, Johnson should be one of the league's most-targeted wideouts in 2021 even though the team re-signed JuJu Smith-Schuster.

Chase Claypool: Claypool scored 11 touchdowns -- nine receiving and two rushing -- in the regular season and added two more receiving scores in the team's playoff loss to Cleveland. Re-signing JuJu Smith-Schuster to a one-year deal puts a dent into Mapletron's upside in year two, but it wouldn't surprise me if he was the team's top-producing wideout in 2021.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: After averaging 65.5 and 89.1 yards per game, respectively, in his first two seasons with the Steelers, Smith-Schuster has averaged 46.0 and 51.9 per game in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The Steelers re-signed Smith-Schuster to a one-year contract and he is a WR3 (both in fantasy and on his own team).

TIGHT ENDS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Eric Ebron46.8483.1400095.71
Pat Freiermuth14.61490.800027
Zach Gentry2.120.30.10003.68

Eric Ebron: In his first season with the Steelers, Ebron finished with 56 catches for 558 yards and five touchdowns. Given the team's talented trio of wide receivers and the likelihood that the Steelers run more often in 2021, Ebron's year-over-year numbers will likely dip.

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Sunday, July 25, 2021

Fantasy Football Projections 2021: Pittsburgh Steelers

Our 2021 Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2021 fantasy football projections for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDPoints
Ben Roethlisberger606.3391.14213.830.6210.3126.327.60.26274.73
Mason Rudolph42.226.1282.71.960.954.45.50.0217.92

Ben Roethlisberger: With Pittsburgh re-signing JuJu Smith-Schuster to a one-year deal, Roethlisberger has one of the league's best wide receiver trios at his disposal. Only the one-win Jaguars (66.2%) threw it on a larger percentage of plays than the 12-win Steelers (65.48%) in 2020, per Team Rankings.

At this stage of his career, however, he no longer pushes the ball down the field -- his 9.5 Y/C and 6.3 Y/A were the lowest of his career (excluding a two-game 2019 season). The Athletic's Ed Bouchette highlights why those peripherals may be better in 2021, but given that the Steelers used their first-round pick to draft Najee Harris, Alabama's all-time leading rusher, fantasy managers should expect a greater shift towards the run in 2021.

RUNNING BACKS

PlayerAtt.YardsTDRec.YardsTDPoints
Najee Harris273.81163.78.0853.4418.22.9250.77
Benny Snell54.8219.21.379.265.20.242.46
Jaylen Samuels24.192.80.2412.587.70.428.14
Anthony McFarland Jr.35141.80.445.2360.123.62
Derek Watt1.130.02190.12.42

Najee Harris: The all-time career rushing leader in Alabama history, Harris rushed for 1,466 yards and 26 touchdowns and added 43 receptions for 425 yards and four more scores last season. With few holes in his game, Harris will step in as a Week 1 workhorse. Given the team's propensity to feature its lead back, Harris has the chance to vastly exceed his ADP.

Benny Snell: While there is some competition on the depth chart, Snell -- or whichever back ultimately slides into the RB2 role -- would become a top waiver-wire add if the team's first-round rookie misses any time given how the team historically features one back.

WIDE RECEIVERS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Diontae Johnson87.6953.36.83.314.90.02181.54
Chase Claypool68.8944.36.81135.80.88178.49
JuJu Smith-Schuster75.1854.36.4000161.38
James Washington24.23353.400066
Ray-Ray McCloud16.5143.90.54.4330.0929.48

Diontae Johnson: Tied with Davante Adams and Keenan Allen, no receiver had more games with double-digit targets than Johnson (10). The second-year receiver averaged only 10.5 Y/R, but he turned his 144 targets into 88 catches for 923 yards and five touchdowns. While he needs to cut down on the drops, Johnson should be one of the league's most-targeted wideouts in 2021 even though the team re-signed JuJu Smith-Schuster.

Chase Claypool: Claypool scored 11 touchdowns -- nine receiving and two rushing -- in the regular season and added two more receiving scores in the team's playoff loss to Cleveland. Re-signing JuJu Smith-Schuster to a one-year deal puts a dent into Mapletron's upside in year two, but it wouldn't surprise me if he was the team's top-producing wideout in 2021.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: After averaging 65.5 and 89.1 yards per game, respectively, in his first two seasons with the Steelers, Smith-Schuster has averaged 46.0 and 51.9 per game in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The Steelers re-signed Smith-Schuster to a one-year contract and he is a WR3 (both in fantasy and on his own team).

TIGHT ENDS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Eric Ebron46.9481.1400095.56
Pat Freiermuth14.6148.40.800026.94
Zach Gentry2.120.20.10003.67

Eric Ebron: In his first season with the Steelers, Ebron finished with 56 catches for 558 yards and five touchdowns. Given the team's talented trio of wide receivers and the likelihood that the Steelers run more often in 2021, Ebron's year-over-year numbers will likely dip.

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Saturday, December 19, 2020

Week 15 Fantasy Football TE Start'em, Sit'em

The decision on which player to start, or sit, largely comes down to the options on your roster (and/or possibly the players available on your league's waiver wire).

As an example, Robert Tonyan is listed below as a "start" for Week 15. And I'd certainly be comfortable going into Week 15 with him as my starting tight end.

Then again, Tonyan may be a "sit" for your team.

In other words, if you own both Travis Kelce and Tonyan, you should start Kelce and, in turn, bench Tonyan.

For a more direct answer on whether we would start Player X over Player Y, check our Week 15 Fantasy Football Rankings. Instead of making those direct comparisons, the goal here is to highlight players that we like, or dislike, for the week.

Week 15 Fantasy Football TE Start'em

Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers (vs. CAR)

Tonyan has exceeded five targets in only one game this season and that game was Week 4. Even so, he's been highly efficient on the targets that he gets from Aaron Rodgers, who is playing at an MVP level.

Over the past four weeks, Tonyan has exactly five targets in every game. Not only has Tonyan scored a touchdown in each of those games, he has a 95% catch rate (19-of-20) over that span. Tonyan has finished as a top-seven fantasy tight end in four consecutive games.

The Carolina Panthers have surrendered the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season. Since Week 6, however, they have allowed eight top-12 fantasy tight ends and only the New York Jets have allowed more fantasy points to the position during that stretch.

Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team (vs. SEA)

Heading into Week 15, Thomas was one of just three tight ends to have at least four targets in 13 games this season. (Darren Waller and T.J. Hockenson are the other two.) On the season, Thomas ranks sixth amongst tight ends in targets (77) and seventh in fantasy points scored (half-PPR).

Despite having difficult back-to-back matchups against the Pittsburgh Steelers and San Francisco 49ers, Thomas has 15 catches for 141 yards and a touchdown on 16 targets over the past two weeks combined. Over his past eight games, Thomas has finished as a top-nine fantasy tight end in five weeks.

Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh Steelers (at CIN)

If we increase the per-game target threshold to five (from the four used in our Thomas blurb), only two tight ends -- Waller and Travis Kelce (12 each) -- have more five-target games than Ebron (11). In fact, the last game that Ebron did not have at least five targets was in Week 6 (four). Since Week 7, Ebron has averaged 7.38 targets per game (fifth-most at the position).

Ebron had a quiet week in his first matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals with two catches for 38 yards on six targets, but the Bengals have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season.

SLEEPER: Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears (at MIN)

For a second week in a row, Kmet had seven targets and a 21.2% target share. In addition, Kmet played a season-high 85% of the team's offensive snaps against the Houston Texans in Week 14. The Notre Dame rookie has now played at least 70% of the offensive snaps in four consecutive games.

Even though it was Jimmy Graham (not Kmet) that scored the touchdown last week, Kmet has now played more snaps than Graham in four consecutive games and drawn more targets in back-to-back games. While it's a middle-of-the-road matchup for Kmet in Week 15, his usage puts him on the TE1 fringe.

Week 15 Fantasy Football TE Sit'em

Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles (at ARI)

In a difficult matchup against the New Orleans Saints in Jalen Hurts' debut as a starter, Ertz had two catches for eight yards on three targets. Meanwhile, Dallas Goedert had four catches for 43 yards on six targets. Goedert now has six targets in five consecutive games and a 25/294/2 line on 35 targets over that span.

On the season, Ertz is averaging career lows across the board -- 7.8 Y/R, 27.1 YPG, 53.8% catch rate -- and he has just one touchdown on 28 receptions. Until we see more from Ertz, I would keep him on my bench.

Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns (at NYG)

Assuming that Hooper returns in Week 15, he should remain on your bench. In his previous four games (Weeks 10 to 13), Hooper has a total of eight catches for 81 yards and one touchdown on 11 targets. That's especially disappointing given that all four were plus matchups.

The New York Giants have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season.

Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys (vs. SF)

Schultz has a minimum of three targets in all 13 games this season and he's averaged 5.6 per game. In addition, he has at least four catches in nine of 13 games. Since Week 8, Schultz is tied for the seventh-most receptions (26) and 10th-most targets per game (5.5) amongst tight ends.

While his volume puts him in the streamer mix in a good matchup, he has arguably the worst matchup on this week's slate of games. No team has allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season than the 49ers.

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Saturday, December 12, 2020

Week 14 Fantasy Football TE Start'em, Sit'em

The decision on which player to start, or sit, largely comes down to the options on your roster (and/or possibly the players available on your league's waiver wire).

As an example, Robert Tonyan is listed below as a "start" for Week 14. And I'd certainly be comfortable going into Week 14 with him as my starting tight end.

Then again, Tonyan may be a "sit" for your team.

In other words, if you own both Darren Waller and Tonyan, you should start Waller and, in turn, bench Tonyan.

For a more direct answer on whether we would start Player X over Player Y, check our Week 14 Fantasy Football Rankings. Instead of making those direct comparisons, the goal here is to highlight players that we like, or dislike, for the week.

Week 14 Fantasy Football TE Start'em

Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers (at DET)

As noted in last week's Start'em, Sit'em, Tonyan was one of three players (along with Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews) to have five top-five weekly performances heading into Week 13. With Darren Waller going off in his 200-yard, two-TD performance, there are now four players with at least five such games.

While Tonyan didn't finish as a top-five performer in Week 13, he did finish as the TE8 with four catches for 39 yards and a touchdown on five targets. It was the third consecutive game in which Tonyan scored.

Aaron Rodgers has thrown a league-high 36 touchdowns this season and Tonyan has the second most (eight) on the team behind Davante Adams (13). Tonyan's eight scores are tied with Kelce for the position high this season.

The Detroit Lions have been pretty good against tight ends this season, but Tonyan scored against them in his first matchup against them this season. In addition, no team has a higher implied total in Week 14 than the Packers.

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins (vs. KC)

Scoring in back-to-back games, Gesicki set or tied a season high in catches (nine) and targets (11) as he finished with 88 yards and a touchdown against the Cincinnati Bengals. While the Bengals are a top-three matchup for opposing tight ends, the Dolphins could find themselves throwing more than they'd prefer as they try (or are forced) to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Gesicki now has at least five targets in four consecutive games and 35-plus yards in five straight games. During that five-game span, the third-year tight end ranks top 10 on a per-game basis in fantasy points (9.36, T-7th), receptions (4.0, T-10th), yards (49.6, 8th) and targets (6.0, T-9th).

Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh Steelers (at BUF)

Over the past two weeks, Ebron has set (and tied) his season high in targets (11) and receptions (seven). In addition, Ebron had his two highest receiving yardage totals (54 and 68, respectively) of the season in the past two weeks. At such a TD-dependent position, however, Ebron finished just outside the top 12 tight ends -- TE14 and TE13, respectively -- without scoring a touchdown.

Even so, it's fair to view that as a positive as he's established a safe floor even in games he doesn't score. The average TE12 in half-PPR formats has scored 9.12 fantasy points this season. Ebron scored 8.9 and 10.3 fantasy points in those two games. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season.

Week 14 Fantasy Football TE Sit'em

Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. NO)

Out for more than a month, Ertz returned in Week 13 and finished with two catches for 31 yards on four targets against the Packers. Not surprisingly, Dallas Goedert (5/66/1 on seven targets) continued to lead the position group in production even with Ertz back.

Not only is the team transitioning from Carson Wentz to Jalen Hurts, a rookie making his first NFL start, the matchup is daunting for any quarterback. The New Orleans Saints rank fourth in the NFL in passing defense (212.8 YPG allowed).

Even though he was drafted as a top-five option this summer, it's wiser to take a wait-and-see approach with Ertz for at least one more week with a rookie making his first NFL start. We've seen with Ertz and Goedert previously and even Goedert and Richard Rodgers when Ertz was out that the offense can generally support two productive fantasy tight ends.

Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns (vs. BAL)

Hooper (neck) sat out Friday's practice, which puts his status for Monday into question, but he should be on your fantasy bench whether or not he plays. While Cleveland's passing offense got going in games with better weather recently, Hooper managed only 2/13/1 and 2/24 in the past two weeks, respectively.

The drop in target share is startling -- 7.41% and 6.45% in Weeks 12 and 13, respectively -- after 18% plus in six of his previous seven games. The only game he was targeted less this season was Week 1 vs. the Ravens (5.71%) when he finished with a 2/15 line.

Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints (at PHI)

Fantasy managers got virtually nothing from Cook in his previous four games, but the veteran tight end and Taysom Hill connected for a touchdown as Cook had his best game since Week 8. In the previous four games, Cook had a total of three catches for 36 yards on 11 targets and finished as the weekly TE36, TE47, TE46 and TE50, respectively. While it was good to see Cook have a respectable TE13 performance last week, stringing two of them together may be a tall order as Hill makes his fourth consecutive start.

Jimmy Graham, Chicago Bears (vs. HOU)

As the Bears transition from the 34-year-old Graham to Kmet, the second-round rookie from Notre Dame, Graham has a 3/32 performance surrounded by a pair of goose eggs over his past three games. In turn, Graham has played his three lowest snap percentages -- 58%, 35% and 49%, respectively -- while Kmet has played this three highest -- 70%, 79% and 78%, respectively -- over that three-game span.

Last week, Kmet had five catches for 37 yards and a touchdown on seven targets against the Lions. While the rookie may not be outright start, he's ranked higher in our rankings than Graham and has the potential to put together a late-season surge as he takes over as the team's TE1.

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Friday, December 4, 2020

Week 13 Fantasy Football TE Start'em, Sit'em

The decision on which player to start, or sit, largely comes down to the options on your roster (and/or possibly the players available on your league's waiver wire).

As an example, Robert Tonyan is listed below as a "start" for Week 13. And I'd certainly be comfortable going into Week 13 with him as my starting tight end.

Then again, Tonyan may be a "sit" for your team.

In other words, if you own both Travis Kelce and Tonyan, you should start Kelce and, in turn, bench Tonyan.

For a more direct answer on whether we would start Player X over Player Y, check our Week 13 Fantasy Football Rankings. Instead of making those direct comparisons, the goal here is to highlight players that we like, or dislike, for the week.

Week 13 Fantasy Football TE Start'em

Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers (vs. PHI)

Three tight ends have at least five top-five weekly half-PPR performances this season. It wouldn't surprise anyone to know that Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews are two of the names on that three-player list.

Can you guess the third?

Given where this question is listed, I'm sure you can. Of course, the third tight end to accomplish that feat is Tonyan, who has also done so in back-to-back weeks.

While it is such a TD-dependent position on a weekly basis, Tonyan is tied with Kelce and Tennessee's Jonnu Smith for the position lead in receiving touchdowns (seven) this season. With Aaron Rodgers playing at an MVP level, no team has more passing touchdowns this season than the Packers (33).

If there's a concern with Tonyan, it's that he's exceeded five targets in only two games this season. That said, the Packers have a top-five implied total this week and the Philadelphia Eagles have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to the position. Not only does Tonyan have a career-best catch rate (88.1%), but the Eagles have also allowed the third-highest catch rate (75.32%) to opposing tight ends.

Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. WAS)

As noted above, few tight ends have the ability to produce top-12 numbers in a given week without scoring a touchdown. Through 12 weeks, that has happened 36 times (or 25% of the time). Ebron isn't an exception from this rule as all four of his TE1 performances this season have occurred in games where he has scored a touchdown.

That said, Ebron currently ranks fifth in targets (67) at the position. That has helped to boost his floor in games that he hasn't scored.

Over the past six weeks, Ebron has scored in three games and finished as a top-10 tight end in each of those games. In the other three games, however, he posted respectable finishes of TE15, TE18 and TE14, respectively. In those three games outside the top 12, he was only 1.0, 2.4 and 1.3 fantasy points, respectively, from the TE12 performer of that given week.

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins (vs. CIN)

Coming off an 8/130/1 (on 11 targets) performance in Week 2, Gesicki frustrated his fantasy managers from Weeks 3 to 8. During that stretch, Gesicki failed to surpass one catch and 15 yards in four of five games. In those four duds during that span, the third-year tight end had either two or three targets.

Since then, Gesicki has a minimum of 35 receiving yards and four targets in four consecutive games. Averaging a career-high 15.0 Y/R this season, Gesicki gets a favorable matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, who have allowed the third-most Y/R to opposing tight ends (12.82) this season and the fourth-most fantasy points to the position.

While the position is generally a crap shoot after the top few options, Gesicki is inside our top 12 tight ends for the week and a viable start.

Week 13 Fantasy Football TE Sit'em

Jimmy Graham, Chicago Bears (vs. DET)

Graham had a goose egg on two targets in Week 10. Coming off the team's Week 11 bye, Graham bounced back to his approximate season-long averages with three catches for 32 yards on four targets against the Packers in Week 12.

In his past two games, however, the (now) 34-year-old tight end has played less than 30 snaps in each game, the first two games that his snap count was less than 40 this season. In last week's game after the bye, it was a significant drop in his snap percentage (35%) as his previous low was 58% in Week 10. That has coincided with second-round rookie Cole Kmet playing at least 70% of the team's snaps in the past two games, the first two games in which he's played more than 50% of the team's snaps this season.

As a TD-dependent tight end, Graham has finished no better than the weekly TE20 in his seven games without a score. With the shift in snap counts from Graham to Kmet, that difference may become even more pronounced down the stretch.

Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team (at PIT)

Against the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving, Thomas completed a 28-yard pass, had a three-yard rush attempt and caught all four of his targets for 20 yards and a touchdown. Thomas finished the week as fantasy's TE8 and now has four top-10 performances over his past six games.

Along with T.J. Hockenson and Darren Waller, Thomas is one of only three tight ends with a minimum of four targets in 11 games this season. While the consistency of targets helps to provide a floor for the former quarterback, Thomas gets a difficult matchup this week (and next) against the Pittsburgh Steelers (and San Francisco 49ers). The Steelers have been the league's stingiest fantasy defense to opposing tight ends this season.

Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints (at ATL)

Through Week 9, Cook averaged 8.6 fantasy points (half-PPR) per game, which was tied for 10th-most. No longer a viable back-end TE1, Cook has a total (yes, TOTAL!) of one catch for six yards on five targets over his past three games since then. Until Drew Brees returns, Cook's fantasy viability is minimal even though the Atlanta Falcons have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season.

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Saturday, November 21, 2020

Week 11 Fantasy Football TE Start'em, Sit'em

The decision on which player to start, or sit, largely comes down to the options on your roster (and/or possibly the players available on your league's waiver wire).

As an example, Eric Ebron is listed below as a "start" for Week 11. And I'd certainly be comfortable going into Week 11 with him as my starting tight end.

Then again, Ebron may be a "sit" for your team.

In other words, if you own both Travis Kelce and Ebron, you should start Kelce and, in turn, bench Ebron.

For a more direct answer on whether we would start Player X over Player Y, check our Week 11 Fantasy Football Rankings. Instead of making those direct comparisons, the goal here is to highlight players that we like, or dislike, for the week.

Week 11 Fantasy Football TE Start'em

Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh Steelers (at JAX)

Like many others at the position, Ebron has been a TD-dependent play at tight end. In nine games this season, Ebron has finished as a top-12 fantasy tight end in each of the three games in which he's scored while finishing outside the top 12 in the other six games that he hasn't scored.

On a positive note, Ebron has a minimum of five targets in four consecutive games and in seven of his past eight games. Scoring in two of his past three games, he gets a favorable matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. The Jaguars have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season.

Jacksonville has allowed seven touchdowns on 37 receptions to opposing tight ends and that 18.92% TD% to the position is the highest in the NFL. Meanwhile, only the Seattle Seahawks (15.14) have allowed more Y/R to opposing tight ends this season than the Jaguars (14.08) entering the week.

In addition, the Steelers have one of the week's highest implied totals. Excluding Thursday Night Football, no team has a higher projected total than the Steelers although the line is currently off in the Kansas City Chiefs-Las Vegas Raiders game.

Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. NYJ)

Drafted to perform much better than he has, Henry enters Week 11 as the TE13 in half-PPR scoring. Henry began the season with three consecutive 5/50 performances and averaged nearly 70 yards per game (68.7) over that span. Since then, however, he has failed to reach the 40-yard mark in each of his past five games.

One positive for Henry is that he has a total of 20 targets and a minimum of six per game over the team's past three games. In addition, he has four catches in three of his past four games and two touchdowns over that same span.

Like with the entire team in a matchup against the winless New York Jets, Henry gets a boost in a matchup that the Chargers are expected to put up a lot of points. Meanwhile, Henry's matchup is favorable as the Jets have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to the position this season. Only three teams have allowed a higher TD% on TE receptions than the Jets (15.0%) this season.

Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team (vs. CIN)

Thomas had four catches for a season-high 66 yards on six targets in Week 10. The former quarterback now has both of his 60-yard games this season over his past three games. Even so, he has been steady throughout the year. Thomas has a minimum of four targets in every game and ranks ninth among the position in targets (52) this season.

Only the Atlanta Falcons have allowed more fantasy points to the position than the Cincinnati Bengals this season. Over their past five games, the Bengals have allowed three tight ends to finish as a weekly top-three performer.

Week 11 Fantasy Football TE Sit'em

Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers (at IND)

Few tight ends have as many weekly top-five performances this season as Tonyan (three). That said, the sleeper tight end has generally struggled over his past five games: TE26, TE28, TE5, TE44 and TE18, respectively.

With Davante Adams, there is a clear top dog as Aaron Rodgers' go-to receiver, but the team will likely get Allen Lazard back from IR this week. That alone doesn't make Tonyan a sit, but it will likely have the effect of spreading out the targets a little further.

In terms of matchups, the Indianapolis Colts have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season. While the Colts have allowed their only two top-10 finishes to the position in their past three games, they have yet to allow a tight end catch a touchdown pass yet this season.

Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams (at TB)

Higbee was absolutely dominant last December -- not just as a tight end, but amongst all pass-catchers. Perhaps we can blame it on 2020 (like everything else), but the fifth-year tight end has failed to carry over that late-season momentum into this season.

On a positive note, Higbee's 56 yards in Week 6 and 60 yards in Week 10 mean that his two highest weekly yardage totals have come within the last three games that he has played. In addition, his six targets in Week 10 were a season high. Until we see more consistency, however, it's difficult to trust Higbee as our starting tight end in a matchup against a good Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense.

Trey Burton, Indianapolis Colts (vs. GB)

In the two games before and after the team's Week 7 bye, Burton scored a total of three touchdowns -- one receiving and two rushing. Over the past three weeks, however, Burton has only seven receptions for 39 yards combined. Given the low volume recently, the expected return of Jack Doyle (concussion) and the difficult matchup for the team (third-fewest FPA to TEs), Burton is a low-end TE2 for Week 11.

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Tuesday, November 17, 2020

Week 11 Fantasy Football TE Strength of Schedule

When it comes to picking up or trading for players, one factor to consider is the player's fantasy football strength of schedule.

A player's fantasy strength of schedule is far from the most important aspect of his outlook. But if you're debating a pair of players and they are otherwise comparable in your view, a more favorable fantasy schedule could at least break the tie.

MORE: Our Week 11 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Post

Based on the fantasy points each team has surrendered up to this point, we average what each team's remaining opponents have given up to each position. The higher the number, the more favorable their collective remaining matchups are.

With that said, here are the TE Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule for the remainder of the year:

RankTeamPlayerCumulative PointsFantasy Playoffs
1Minnesota VikingsIrv Smith Jr.9.8434.24
2New Orleans SaintsJared Cook9.7530.25
3Pittsburgh SteelersEric Ebron9.4631.91
4Cleveland BrownsAustin Hooper9.4130.08
5Dallas CowboysDalton Schultz9.1832.33
6San Francisco 49ersGeorge Kittle9.0231.12
7Seattle SeahawksGreg Olsen933.69
8Denver BroncosNoah Fant8.9434.51
9Kansas City ChiefsTravis Kelce8.8835.28
10Tampa Bay BuccaneersRob Gronkowski8.8434.8
11Atlanta FalconsHayden Hurst8.7929.29
11Los Angeles ChargersHunter Henry8.7931.22
13Green Bay PackersRobert Tonyan8.7731.74
14Detroit LionsT.J. Hockenson8.7527.98
15New England PatriotsRyan Izzo8.731.25
16Baltimore RavensMark Andrews8.6732.55
17Jacksonville JaguarsTyler Eifert8.5732.43
18New York GiantsEvan Engram8.4429.41
19Las Vegas RaidersDarren Waller8.4324.81
20Chicago BearsJimmy Graham8.2133.2
21Cincinnati BengalsDrew Sample8.1127.8
22New York JetsChris Herndon8.0829.28
23Philadelphia EaglesZach Ertz8.0731.22
24WashingtonLogan Thomas7.9925.12
25Tennessee TitansJonnu Smith7.9328.57
26Miami DolphinsMike Gesicki7.9122.42
27Carolina PanthersIan Thomas7.6726.25
28Indianapolis ColtsJack Doyle7.5625.03
29Houston TexansJordan Akins7.5330.91
30Arizona CardinalsDan Arnold7.4227.51
31Los Angeles RamsTyler Higbee7.2325.35
32Buffalo BillsDawson Knox6.2920.56

* Note: Totals above are the average fantasy football points allowed based on their remaining opponents.

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Saturday, November 14, 2020

Week 10 Fantasy Football TE Start'em, Sit'em

The decision on which player to start, or sit, largely comes down to the options on your roster (and/or possibly the players available on your league's waiver wire).

As an example, Eric Ebron is listed below as a "start" for Week 10. And I'd certainly be comfortable going into Week 10 with him as my starting tight end.

Then again, Ebron may be a "sit" for your team.

In other words, if you own both Darren Waller and Ebron, you should start Waller and, in turn, bench Ebron.

For a more direct answer on whether we would start Player X over Player Y, check our Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings. Instead of making those direct comparisons, the goal here is to highlight players that we like, or dislike, for the week.

Week 10 Fantasy Football TE Start'em

Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns (vs. HOU)

While Hooper (appendicitis) missed a couple of games before the team's Week 9 bye, the Browns tight ends have scored the eighth-most fantasy points and received the ninth-most targets this season. Hooper himself was getting a larger share of targets before being sidelined. With exactly five receptions per game from Weeks 4 to 6, Hooper had a total of 23 targets and at least a 22.22% target share in each of those three weeks.

Since then, the Browns have lost Odell Beckham for the season and Jarvis Landry has been battling his own share of injuries. In a top-10 fantasy matchup against the Houston Texans, it would be reasonable for Hooper to get six or more targets in his first game back from injury.

Noah Fant, Denver Broncos (at LV)

Fant has a minimum of 35 yards in every game this season and last week (three targets) was the only game he played with fewer than five targets. If it weren't for his first-quarter ankle injury last week, he would have had a much more productive outing even though he returned to the game. Over seven games this season, Fant has 32 catches for 349 yards and two touchdowns on 46 targets.

Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. CIN)

Ebron has the most favorable remaining fantasy football strength of schedule and he gets one of the best matchups this weekend. Only the Atlanta Falcons have allowed more fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season than the Cincinnati Bengals. Over their past four games, the Bengals have allowed three top-three weekly finishers -- Mark Andrews (TE3, Week 5), Trey Burton (TE3, Week 6) and Harrison Bryant (TE1, Week 7). Ebron has scored in back-to-back games and only the Falcons (eight) and Jaguars (seven) have allowed more TD receptions to the position than the Bengals (six).

Week 10 Fantasy Football TE Sit'em

Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams (vs. SEA)

If you drafted Higbee, you certainly have buyer's remorse. Aside from a three-TD Week 2 explosion, Higbee scored a maximum of 7.1 fantasy points (half-PPR scoring) in his other six games this season. In fact, if I were forced to start a Rams tight end this week, it would Gerald Everett -- not Higbee. Over the past four games, Everett has 16 catches for 177 yards and a touchdown on 22 targets.

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins (vs. LAC)

A freakish athlete for the position, Gesicki was one of my favorite targets in summer fantasy drafts. Unfortunately, the third-year tight end has underwhelmed recently. Over his past three games, Gesicki has a total of four catches and 50 scoreless yards on eight targets and has finished as the weekly TE46, TE36 and TE23, respectively. While the talent is there for him to perform as a top-12 tight end, I have him ranked just outside my top 12 this week. The Chargers have limited opposing tight ends to the ninth-fewest fantasy points this season.

Greg Olsen, Seattle Seahawks (at LAR)

In the first four games of the season, Olsen had at least four catches in three games. Since then, however, Olsen has a total of five catches for 51 scoreless yards over the next four games. Over the past three weeks, it's been a different Seahawks tight end to lead the position group in targets -- Will Dissly (four, Week 7), Greg Olsen (four, Week 8) and Jacob Hollister (seven, Week 9).

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