Saturday, January 13, 2024

Early 2024 Fantasy Football Mock Draft

The NFL regular season ended only a few days ago, but it's never too early to look ahead to the upcoming season.

In the near future, we will post our early 2024 fantasy football rankings. And later in (and throughout) the offseason, we will post full fantasy football mock drafts.

For now, this is an early look at how the first round in fantasy mock drafts could play out this summer.

Note: All references are based on half-PPR scoring, unless stated otherwise.

1.01 - Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers

McCaffrey, fantasy's top-scoring non-QB, nearly doubled up the last RB1 (Saquon Barkley, RB12). Through Week 17, CMC (out Week 18) handled 76% of the team's 446 running back touches (excluding fullback Kyle Juszczyk's 19 touches). A perfect fit within Kyle Shanahan's offense, he led the NFL in touches (339), yards from scrimmage (2,023) and touchdowns (21), and he has finished as a top-three fantasy running back in all four of his full seasons — RB3 (2018), RB1 ('19), RB2 ('22) and RB1 ('23), respectively.

1.02 - Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings started four different quarterbacks in 2023, and Kirk Cousins is slated to become a free agent in March. While the obvious concern for Jefferson's status as fantasy's WR1 is the team's quarterback situation, especially if they don't re-sign Cousins, Jefferson had two of his best games in the final three weeks. A hamstring forced him to miss two months, but Jefferson finished with 140-plus yards in five of 10 games and averaged a career-high 107.4 YPG.

1.03 - CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys

Lamb has been more productive in each successive season, and fantasy's top-scoring wide receiver was the best version of himself from Week 6-18. During that span, Lamb racked up a 108/1,391/11 on 146 targets and added 11/92/2 rushing. The only receiver (barely) within five fantasy points of Lamb (23.2) during that stretch was Miami's Tyreek Hill (18.4).

1.04 - Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins

Through two seasons in Miami, Hill has amassed 238 catches for 3,509 yards and 20 touchdowns with an additional 47 rushing yards and a score. Per PFF, Hill led qualified receivers in yards per route run (3.82) in 2023, and only Nico Collins (3.10), Brandon Aiyuk (3.01), and Justin Jefferson (2.91) were within one yard of him. (Hill led the NFL with 3.07 Y/RR in '22 as well.) While he'll turn 30 in March, there's little reason to expect (much of) a slowdown as he runs it back with Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel in '24.

1.05 - Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Although he's the WR4 in this mock, a case could be made for Chase to be drafted as the WR1 this summer. Injuries have slowed him and/or Joe Burrow over the past two seasons, but the 23-year-old (turns 24 in March) receiver already has 268/3,717/29 through 45 career games.

1.06 - Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions

St. Brown had a career season — 112/1,371/9 on 154 targets — and only Lamb and Hill scored more fantasy points this season. While he may not have the weekly ceiling of the receivers listed ahead of him, his consistency stands out. ARSB has four or more catches in all but eight career games, 90-plus yards in 11 of his past 15 games, and the most top-25 half-PPR weeks (14, tied with Lamb) this season.

1.07 - A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

It was a tale of two seasons for Brown — 67/1,005/6 in 9G before the bye and 39/451/1 in 8G after the bye. Despite the post-bye production dip, Brown finished 2023 with more targets (158) and receptions (106) than he had last year and nearly as many yards (1,456). Squarely in his prime, Brown is a near lock for another 1,400-yard campaign.

1.08 - Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets

Not much went right for the Jets in 2023, although Hall was one of their few bright spots. Hall nearly rushed for 1,000 yards (994), led all running backs in receptions (76) and scored the fourth-most fantasy points (second-most in full-PPR formats) among running backs. With more competent quarterback play next season and being another year removed from his torn ACL, Hall is my preferred choice among non-McCaffrey running backs.

1.09 - Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams

Although he missed several games, Williams averaged 21.7 touches in his 12 games played. In addition, only McCaffrey (11) had more 20-touch games than Williams (nine) this season. He had a minimum of 12.8 fantasy points in all but two games, and he had at least 20 touches and 100 YFS in each of his past seven games. Fantasy managers should expect Williams to continue to get massive workloads in 2024 based on L.A.'s current roster construction.

1.10 - Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts

A tension-filled summer between Taylor and the Colts extended into the season with a four-game PUP stint but ended with a three-year contract extension. While a healthy Anthony Richardson — four rushing touchdowns in four games — could lower his touchdown ceiling and targets (on checkdowns) in 2024, Taylor is one of the most talented young running backs (turns 25 later this month) who could set career highs in YPC given Richardson's rushing threat.

1.11 - Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons

Somewhat of a disappointment compared to his ADP, Robinson's next coach is less likely to under-utilize him the way that (now-fired) Arthur Smith did. An elite talent and a top-10 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Robinson averaged 4.7 yards per carry and was one of five running backs with 30-plus 10-yard runs. Among running backs, he ranked second in targets (86), sixth in receptions (58), fourth in receiving yards (487), and third in receiving touchdowns (four). Without Smith holding him back, Robinson should be a top-five running back in 2024.

1.12 - Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions

Despite sharing the backfield with David Montgomery (RB13), Gibbs ended the year as a top-10 running back. Gibbs actually started slowly — RB36, RB24, RB23, and RB29, respectively, and then two missed games — but finished strong. From Week 7 on, Gibbs was tied with Taylor in fantasy points per game behind Williams and McCaffrey.

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