The NFL regular season ended only a few days ago, but it's never too early to look ahead to the upcoming season.
In the near future, we will post our early 2024 fantasy football rankings. And later in (and throughout) the offseason, we will post full fantasy football mock drafts.
For now, this is an early look at how the first round in fantasy mock drafts could play out this summer.
Note: All references are based on half-PPR scoring, unless stated otherwise.
McCaffrey, fantasy's top-scoring non-QB, nearly doubled up the last RB1 (Saquon Barkley, RB12). Through Week 17, CMC (out Week 18) handled 76% of the team's 446 running back touches (excluding fullback Kyle Juszczyk's 19 touches). A perfect fit within Kyle Shanahan's offense, he led the NFL in touches (339), yards from scrimmage (2,023) and touchdowns (21), and he has finished as a top-three fantasy running back in all four of his full seasons — RB3 (2018), RB1 ('19), RB2 ('22) and RB1 ('23), respectively.
The Vikings started four different quarterbacks in 2023, and Kirk Cousins is slated to become a free agent in March. While the obvious concern for Jefferson's status as fantasy's WR1 is the team's quarterback situation, especially if they don't re-sign Cousins, Jefferson had two of his best games in the final three weeks. A hamstring forced him to miss two months, but Jefferson finished with 140-plus yards in five of 10 games and averaged a career-high 107.4 YPG.
Lamb has been more productive in each successive season, and fantasy's top-scoring wide receiver was the best version of himself from Week 6-18. During that span, Lamb racked up a 108/1,391/11 on 146 targets and added 11/92/2 rushing. The only receiver (barely) within five fantasy points of Lamb (23.2) during that stretch was Miami's Tyreek Hill (18.4).
Through two seasons in Miami, Hill has amassed 238 catches for 3,509 yards and 20 touchdowns with an additional 47 rushing yards and a score. Per PFF, Hill led qualified receivers in yards per route run (3.82) in 2023, and only Nico Collins (3.10), Brandon Aiyuk (3.01), and Justin Jefferson (2.91) were within one yard of him. (Hill led the NFL with 3.07 Y/RR in '22 as well.) While he'll turn 30 in March, there's little reason to expect (much of) a slowdown as he runs it back with Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel in '24.
Although he's the WR4 in this mock, a case could be made for Chase to be drafted as the WR1 this summer. Injuries have slowed him and/or Joe Burrow over the past two seasons, but the 23-year-old (turns 24 in March) receiver already has 268/3,717/29 through 45 career games.
St. Brown had a career season — 112/1,371/9 on 154 targets — and only Lamb and Hill scored more fantasy points this season. While he may not have the weekly ceiling of the receivers listed ahead of him, his consistency stands out. ARSB has four or more catches in all but eight career games, 90-plus yards in 11 of his past 15 games, and the most top-25 half-PPR weeks (14, tied with Lamb) this season.
It was a tale of two seasons for Brown — 67/1,005/6 in 9G before the bye and 39/451/1 in 8G after the bye. Despite the post-bye production dip, Brown finished 2023 with more targets (158) and receptions (106) than he had last year and nearly as many yards (1,456). Squarely in his prime, Brown is a near lock for another 1,400-yard campaign.
Not much went right for the Jets in 2023, although Hall was one of their few bright spots. Hall nearly rushed for 1,000 yards (994), led all running backs in receptions (76) and scored the fourth-most fantasy points (second-most in full-PPR formats) among running backs. With more competent quarterback play next season and being another year removed from his torn ACL, Hall is my preferred choice among non-McCaffrey running backs.
Although he missed several games, Williams averaged 21.7 touches in his 12 games played. In addition, only McCaffrey (11) had more 20-touch games than Williams (nine) this season. He had a minimum of 12.8 fantasy points in all but two games, and he had at least 20 touches and 100 YFS in each of his past seven games. Fantasy managers should expect Williams to continue to get massive workloads in 2024 based on L.A.'s current roster construction.
A tension-filled summer between Taylor and the Colts extended into the season with a four-game PUP stint but ended with a three-year contract extension. While a healthy Anthony Richardson — four rushing touchdowns in four games — could lower his touchdown ceiling and targets (on checkdowns) in 2024, Taylor is one of the most talented young running backs (turns 25 later this month) who could set career highs in YPC given Richardson's rushing threat.
Somewhat of a disappointment compared to his ADP, Robinson's next coach is less likely to under-utilize him the way that (now-fired) Arthur Smith did. An elite talent and a top-10 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Robinson averaged 4.7 yards per carry and was one of five running backs with 30-plus 10-yard runs. Among running backs, he ranked second in targets (86), sixth in receptions (58), fourth in receiving yards (487), and third in receiving touchdowns (four). Without Smith holding him back, Robinson should be a top-five running back in 2024.
Despite sharing the backfield with David Montgomery (RB13), Gibbs ended the year as a top-10 running back. Gibbs actually started slowly — RB36, RB24, RB23, and RB29, respectively, and then two missed games — but finished strong. From Week 7 on, Gibbs was tied with Taylor in fantasy points per game behind Williams and McCaffrey.
Brock Purdy: Mr. Irrelevant is the term given to the final pick of each NFL draft, but Purdy, the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, was anything but irrelevant in his rookie season. From December through his final snap of the playoffs, Purdy completed 151-of-224 pass attempts (67.4%) for 1,877 yards (8.38 Y/A), 16 touchdowns (7.1%) and only three interceptions (1.3%). There appear to be no lingering concerns following his offseason UCL surgery.
Sam Darnold: Excluding a terrible performance (2.8 passer rating) in 2022's season finale with the Panthers, Darnold was playing really well before that last year. In fact, he threw for 1,100 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception with a 105.4 passer rating in his other five games started last season while adding 74 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Since Kyle Shanahan took over in 2017, the 49ers rank second in the NFL in passing yards per attempt (7.4), per Stathead.
Christian McCaffrey: After two injury-plagued seasons, McCaffrey played a full 17-game slate in 2022 split between the Panthers and 49ers. If there's a concern (albeit only a slight one), it's the potential for the 49ers to scale back CMC's workload to preserve his health for a full season including the playoffs, especially given their talented supporting cast when at full strength.
When healthy, however, few, if any, running backs have a higher floor and ceiling due to his ability as a runner and receiver. From Week 7 (when SF traded for him) through the end of the season, he tied Tennessee's Derrick Henry for the most fantasy points per game (half-PPR). McCaffrey has a minimum of 80 catches in each of his four full seasons, and he's averaged 113.1 yards per scrimmage per game over his career.
Elijah Mitchell: Mitchell won't offer much stand-alone value, but he would have enormous upside if Christian McCaffrey were to miss any time during the 2023 season. While CMC deserves to be considered at pick 1.01 in fantasy drafts, we've seen how productive non-CMC backs (including Mitchell) have been when given the opportunity.
Deebo Samuel: Samuel has missed multiple games in two of the past three seasons, and his physical play style increases his durability risk. Playing in 13 games and describing his own play as "awful" last season, Samuel finished with 56 receptions for 632 yards and two touchdowns and added 42 carries for 232 yards and three touchdowns. At a minimum, a motivated Samuel should be better on a per-touch basis in 2023 than he was last year.
Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk had the best season of his young career in 2022 with 78 catches for 1,015 yards and eight touchdowns, all career highs, and he was a top-15 fantasy wide receiver (half-PPR scoring). The only concern with Aiyuk, and other San Francisco skill-position players, is the competition for touches with so many talented pass catchers on the roster.
George Kittle: Compared to his elite talent, Kittle is often under-targeted. Even so, he has finished as a top-four fantasy tight end in four of the past five seasons. The exception was when he missed eight games in 2020, but he finished third on a PPG basis that season behind Travis Kelce and Darren Waller. The other concern with Kittle is he has missed multiple games in four consecutive seasons (and he's dealing with an adductor strain heading into Week 1), but he has averaged 70.4/947.8/5.8 per 17 games over the past five years.
Brock Purdy: Mr. Irrelevant is the term given to the final pick of each NFL draft, but Purdy, the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, was anything but irrelevant in his rookie season. From December through his final snap of the playoffs, Purdy completed 151-of-224 pass attempts (67.4%) for 1,877 yards (8.38 Y/A), 16 touchdowns (7.1%) and only three interceptions (1.3%). there appear to be no lingering concerns following his offseason UCL surgery.
Sam Darnold: Excluding a terrible performance (2.8 passer rating) in 2022's season finale with the Panthers, Darnold was playing really well before that last year. In fact, he threw for 1,100 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception with a 105.4 passer rating in his other five games started last season while adding 74 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
Christian McCaffrey: After two injury-plagued seasons, McCaffrey played a full 17-game slate in 2022 split between the Panthers and 49ers. If there's a concern (albeit only a slight one), it's the potential for the 49ers to scale back CMC's workload to preserve his health for a full season including the playoffs, especially given their talented supporting cast when at full strength.
When healthy, however, few, if any, running backs have a higher floor and ceiling due to his ability as a runner and receiver. From Week 7 (when SF traded for him) through the end of the season, he tied Tennessee's Derrick Henry for the most fantasy points per game (half-PPR). McCaffrey has a minimum of 80 catches in each of his four full seasons, and he's averaged 113.1 yards per scrimmage per game over his career.
Elijah Mitchell: Mitchell won't offer much stand-alone value, but he would have enormous upside if Christian McCaffrey were to miss any time during the 2023 season. While CMC deserves to be considered at pick 1.01 in fantasy drafts, we've seen how productive non-CMC backs (including Mitchell) have been when given the opportunity.
Deebo Samuel: Samuel has missed multiple games in two of the past three seasons, and his physical play style increases his durability risk. Playing in 13 games and describing his own play as "awful" last season, Samuel finished with 56 receptions for 632 yards and two touchdowns and added 42 carries for 232 yards and three touchdowns. At a minimum, a motivated Samuel should be better on a per-touch basis in 2023 than he was last year.
Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk had the best season of his young career in 2022 with 78 catches for 1,015 yards and eight touchdowns, all career highs, and he was a top-15 fantasy wide receiver (half-PPR scoring). The only concern with Aiyuk, and other San Francisco skill-position players, is the competition for touches with so many talented pass catchers on the roster.
George Kittle: Compared to his elite talent, Kittle is often under-targeted. Even so, he has finished as a top-four fantasy tight end in four of the past five seasons. The exception was when he missed eight games in 2020, but he finished third on a PPG basis that season behind Travis Kelce and Darren Waller. The other concern with Kittle is he has missed multiple games in four consecutive seasons, but he has averaged 70.4/947.8/5.8 per 17 games over the past five years.
Some teams have already played their final preseason game and as the NFL preseason winds down, we are that much closer to the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football.
That also means that we are in the thick of fantasy draft season.
To help you prepare for your fantasy football drafts, we will continue to keep our fantasy football rankings updated until the start of the 2023 NFL season.
After two injury-plagued seasons, McCaffrey played a full 17-game slate in 2022 split between the Panthers and 49ers. If there's a concern (albeit only a slight one), it's the potential for the 49ers to scale back CMC's workload to preserve his health for a full season including the playoffs, especially given their talented supporting cast when at full strength.
When healthy, however, few, if any, running backs have a higher floor and ceiling due to his ability as a runner and receiver. From Week 7 (when SF traded for him) through the end of the season, he tied Tennessee's Derrick Henry for the most fantasy points per game (half-PPR). McCaffrey has a minimum of 80 catches in each of his four full seasons, and he's averaged 113.1 yards per scrimmage per game over his career.
Granted permission to seek a trade early in the offseason, Ekeler enters 2023 with fresh incentives added to the final year of his contract. As one of the league's best receiving backs, Ekeler's elite production is game-script independent. In addition, he has led the NFL in touchdowns in each of the past two seasons with a total of 38 during that span. Ekeler led all running backs in half-PPR fantasy points in 2022, and he finished second behind Jonathan Taylor in 2021.
Chubb has a career average of 5.2 yards per carry, but he has also yet to average fewer than 5.0 YPC in any of his first five NFL seasons. The talented back carried the ball 302 times last season for 1,525 yards and 12 touchdowns, all of which set or tied career highs. While he's averaged only 1.6 receptions per game over his career, his passing-game role may (or should) expand with Kareem Hunt no longer on the roster.
Robinson is the most talented back to enter the league in several draft cycles, and he landed in a spot where he has a chance to perform as a top-five fantasy back. Robinson profiles as a three-down back with outstanding size, speed, vision and contact balance and his 183 missed tackles forced over the past two seasons were 56 more than the next closest back, per PFF. While Robinson is an outstanding receiver as well, only the Bears (56.19%) ran the ball on a higher percentage of plays than the Falcons (55.29%) in 2022.
There are certainly concerns — age, cumulative career workload, the team's offensive issues, etc. Even so, Henry has led the NFL in rush attempts in three of the past four seasons (including 349 in 2022) and he's guaranteed a massive workload, as long as he remains healthy. He set a career high in receptions (33) in 2022, but he actually averaged more receptions per game in 2021 (2.3) than 2022 (2.1).
Of course, it would be preferred for Henry to be more involved as a receiver, but his relative lack of involvement in the passing game has been an over-emphasized reason to avoid Henry (at least in half-PPR formats). Here is where Henry has finished on a points-per-game basis in half-PPR scoring over the past four years (min. 8G played): third in 2022 (17.9), first in 2021 (23.0), third in 2020 (20.2) and second (tied) in 2019 (19.0), respectively.
Barkley had missed at least three games in each of the previous three seasons, but he stayed healthy in 2022 and delivered for fantasy managers. Perhaps less involved as a receiver than expected, especially given the team's 2022 wide receiver woes, Barkley ended the year with 352 combined touches including 57 receptions, 1,650 YFS and 10 touchdowns. Failing to reach an agreement on a long-term extension before the July 17th deadline, Barkley and the Giants agreed to terms on a modified one-year contract, which is helpful given the current landscape of tension between star running backs and teams.
Sharing the workload with Ezekiel Elliott, Pollard rushed for 1,007 yards and nine touchdowns and added 39 catches for 371 yards and another three touchdowns. With Elliott no longer on the roster (although there is at least a chance the still-unsigned Elliott could return), Pollard enters 2023 as a mid-tier RB1 in fantasy drafts.
Jacobs led the NFL in rushing yards (1,653), yards from scrimmage (2,053) and touches (393) in 2022. He dominated the team's running back touches, as the rest of the team's backs had a total of 77 (16.4%). In addition, Jacobs averaged a career-high 4.9 YPC and has now exceeded 50 catches in back-to-back seasons. That's the good news, but hasn't yet signed his franchise tender after the team and Jacobs failed to reach a long-term agreement before July's deadline. Vincent Bonsignore of the Las Vegas Review-Journal recently wrote, however, that Jacobs is "expected to report ... before their season opener."
When healthy and happy, Taylor has RB1 overall upside. After all, he's just two seasons removed from finishing as fantasy football's RB1. Beyond what he can do on the football field, however, it's been a summer full of concerns — requesting a trade, leaving and returning to camp (multiple times), PUP list, etc. Another concern is the potential for Anthony Richardson to steal carries from Taylor, who also may see fewer checkdowns if Richardson tucks it and runs when plays break down.
Update: Taylor has been given permission to seek a trade.
Before last season, Jones had three consecutive seasons with double-digit touchdowns. That said, he set career highs in rushing yards (1,121) and receptions (59) in 2022. Transitioning from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love adds some uncertainty, but Jones has 47-plus receptions in four consecutive seasons and 1,459-plus YFS in three of his past four seasons. Jones is undervalued heading into the 2023 season.
Missing multiple games in all but two seasons (2019 and 2021), Mixon has been an inefficient (career 4.1 YPC) workhorse (16.4 carries per game). In addition, he set career highs as a receiver in targets (75), receptions (60) and yards (441) in 2022. The Bengals and Mixon agreed to a restructured contract that keeps him in Cincinnati for 2023, but it's still unclear if his legal issues will impact his availability at any point during the season.
While the touches (381 to 313), targets (94 to 53) and yards from scrimmage (1,667 to 1,263) all dropped year over year, Harris managed to play a full 17-game slate once again despite some worries about a Lisfranc injury before the start of the season. An improved offensive line and offense overall should help a healthy Harris, who was RB14 in half-PPR in 2022. (Harris was a volume-based RB4 as a rookie in 2021.)
Stevenson is coming off a breakout season (1,040 rushing yards, 69 receptions for 421 yards and six total touchdowns). Damien Harris (106 carries in 11 games) is now in Buffalo, but the Patriots have signed Ezekiel Elliott to fill his void (and potentially more). Stevenson had multiple receptions in all but one game in 2022, and only three running backs — Austin Ekeler (107), Christian McCaffrey (85) and Leonard Fournette (73) — had more receptions than Stevenson last year. The biggest concern with the Elliott signing, however, is the potential to lose goal-line carries to the former Cowboy.
It's a new-look backfield for the Lions — D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams are out, and Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are in. Detroit's backfield ranked third in touches last season, and they were top 10 in RB targets. Gibbs lacks ideal size to be a workhorse back, but he will quickly develop into one of the league's best receiving backs and he has game-breaking speed (4.36 40-yard dash). It's possible, maybe likely, that Montgomery leads the backfied in touches while Gibbs leads it in fantasy points scored.
A Lisfranc injury delayed his NFL debut by a year, but Etienne finished as fantasy's RB17 (half-PPR scoring) in 2022 with 220 carries for 1,125 yards and five touchdowns and 35 catches for 316 yards. Earlier this offseason, Demetrius Harvey of The Florida Times-Union wrote that Tank Bigsby, the team's third-round pick, could even "out-touch [Etienne] in some games depending on who has the hot hand." More recently, Doug Pederson praised Etienne's development as a runner while discussing a scenario where "maybe he's pushing 1,600, 1,700 yards as a rusher."
Conner has missed multiple games in all six of his NFL seasons including four games in 2022. In his two years with the Cardinals, he has a total of 385 carries for 1,534 yards (3.98 YPC) and 22 touchdowns while adding 83 catches for 675 yards and four touchdowns. The good news is that he should dominate backfield touches, as long as he remains healthy. The bad news is his number of scoring opportunities will likely be down (perhaps significantly), especially when Kyler Murray is sidelined.
Mattison is poised for a breakout season (or at least a significant increase in workload) with Dalvin Cook released earlier this offseason. The fifth-year back has 90-plus rushing yards in five of the six games in which he has played more than 40 offensive snaps.
Before Hall tore his ACL, his NFL career was off to a great start. The rookie from Iowa State averaged 5.8 yards per carry and 11.5 yards per reception through seven games. His workload had jumped considerably in Weeks 4-6 (61 touches) from Weeks 1-3 (34). Who knows how good his rookie season would have been if the injury hadn't happened? There are lots of reasons for fantasy managers to be excited about Hall's long-term outlook, but it wouldn't be a shock if he starts the 2023 season slowly as he works his way back from injury, especially with Dalvin Cook joining the Jets on a one-year deal.
Walker rushed for 1,050 yards and nine touchdowns on 228 carries as a rookie. Expectations shot up following (Rashaad Penny's departure in) NFL free agency, but the Seahawks drafting a talented complement (Zach Charbonnet) in the second round should temper expectations. Walker finished 2022 as fantasy's RB16 in half-PPR scoring, and a similar level of production is most likely in 2023. Walker had been dealing with a groin injury, but he's returned to practicing in full.
Once the Buccaneers released Leonard Fournette, who is still a free agent, White immediately moved atop the team's 2023 depth chart. As a 2022 rookie, he had 129 carries for 481 yards (only 3.7 YPC) and a touchdown in addition to 50 receptions for 290 yards and two touchdowns. His best game as a runner (22/105) was against the Seattle Seahawks and his new offensive coordinator Dave Canales, who was Seattle's quarterbacks coach last year.
While he missed nearly all of 2021 with a torn Achilles, Akers has gone from workhorse to the coach's doghouse and back to workhorse, when healthy. Much of Akers' 2022 production came in the final six weeks of the season when he finished with 104 carries for 512 yards (4.92 YPC) and six touchdowns and 11 receptions for 99 yards on 12 targets.
Pierce had never exceeded 106 carries in his four seasons at Florida, but he reached that number through his first six games with the Texans. While he missed the final four games of the season with an ankle injury, he had 220 carries for 939 yards and four touchdowns through Week 14. He also added 30 catches for 165 yards and a touchdown. The former Gator was the RB15 through Week 14. Despite Houston signing Devin Singletary, Pierce is still a viable RB2 for fantasy managers in 2023.
Sanders set career highs in rushing last season with 259 carries for 1,269 yards and 11 touchdowns. Through four NFL seasons, he has averaged 5.02 yards per carry running behind the league's best offensive line. With Jalen Hurts under center, Sanders (and Philly's running backs) weren't targeted often, but he had 50 receptions as a rookie in 2022. There's a good chance that he's more involved as a receiver than he was over the past several seasons. Sanders is dealing with a hamstring injury, but Frank Reich says he thinks that Sanders is "getting close."
Fantasy managers now have clarity about Kamara's suspension (a negotiated settlement of three games), a positive development given it could have been twice as long. Over the past two seasons, Kamara has averaged only 3.9 YPC, rushed for half as many touchdowns as "tight end" Taysom Hill and had a total of only 104 receptions after finishing with 80-plus in each of his first four seasons. Even so, he has finished as the RB16 (2022) and RB8 (2021) on a PPG basis (half-PPR).
Dobbins has averaged a phenomenal 5.9 yards per carry, but he has played a total of 23 games through three seasons. (On a positive note, he's an extra year removed from a torn ACL that forced him to miss the entire 2021 season.) While Lamar Jackson's elite rushing threat can put tremendous strain on opposing defenses, the flip side is fewer targets and checkdowns to running backs as Dobbins has averaged only 1.39 targets and 1.09 receptions per game over his career.
Handling seven touches including four receptions in Week 2 of the preseason, Williams (knee) described getting tackled as "the biggest hurdle ... left with the whole recovery process." Returning to game action this quickly after tearing multiple ligaments is extremely impressive, to say the least. Through 21 career games, Williams has 250 carries for 1,107 yards (4.4 YPC, 52.7 YPG), 59 receptions for 392 yards and a total of seven touchdowns.
Cook was one of Buffalo's fantasy winners after the draft, as there was some projection that the Bills could target someone like Bijan Robinson if he slipped. (Of course, he didn't.) Heading into 2023 atop the depth chart, he'll split touches with veterans like Damien Harris and Latavius Murray, but he'll be in the (back-end) RB2 mix for fantasy managers this season. Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey praised Cook's versatility and potential to be a "three-down back."
The Lions had two backs finish as top-24 performers in 2022 — Williams (RB8) and Swift (RB22) — and no team's running backs scored more fantasy points than Detroit's. In other words, it's possible that the duo of Gibbs and Montgomery both perform as RB2-type backs (or better) in 2023. Montgomery has averaged only 3.94 YPC through four seasons, but he will have the opportunity to run behind a much better offensive line in Detroit than he had in Chicago. In addition, he is a capable receiver as well with a minimum of 25 receptions each year and a total of 155 through four seasons.
Given what he endured before last season (shot multiple times during a car jacking), Robinson had an incredibly impressive rookie season and shouldered a heavy workload, when healthy. He averaged 17.1 carries per game, although he was less involved as a receiver (12 targets in 12 games).
Pacheco generated some buzz last August as a seventh-round rookie, and then he delivered for fantasy managers who drafted the sleeper. He finished his inaugural season with 170 carries for 830 yards (4.9 YPC) and five touchdowns and added 13 catches for 130 yards (10.0 Y/R). Sitting atop the 2023 depth chart, Pacheco has a chance to improve upon his rookie numbers.
Fumbling issues plagued Gibson's 2021 season, and he was inefficient last season (3.66 YPC) with career lows in both touches (195) and yards from scrimmage (899). Gibson has a minimum of 36 catches in each season with a career-high 46 last year and coach Ron Rivera referred to him as a "matchup nightmare for the opponent." With J.D. McKissic no longer on the roster, Gibson expects his role to include "third-down back, end-of-game situation, end-of-half situation and things like that."
There's a good chance that Swift leads Philadelphia's backfield in fantasy production, as long as he stays healthy, but he has missed a minimum of three games every season in his young career. Swift is one of the league's best receiving backs with an average of 3.9 receptions per game in his career. While he'll benefit from playing in a high-powered offense and behind an elite offense line, a drop in target share is likely with Jalen Hurts (165 carries in 2022) under center. Only Chicago's running backs had fewer receptions than Philadelphia's last season.
The wait is over, as Cook will join the Jets for the 2023 season. Appearing in all 17 games last year, it was the first time that Cook appeared in more than 14 games in a season. Cook's signing could lead to Hall being brought along more slowly, which could mean his best games could be in the first half of the season.
Chances are that Justin Fields will lead the Bears in rushing, but Herbert has been highly efficient — career 5.02 YPC on 232 carries — through his first two NFL seasons. Given the volume of rush attempts by Fields, it should come as no surprise that the Bears ranked last in the NFL in running back receptions and 31st in running back targets in 2022. Even if Herbert leads the Bears running backs in both rushing and receiving, which I currently project, it's possible that fantasy managers are left wanting a bit more.
Whether fantasy managers roster Jones or not, Dillon has stand-alone fantasy value and has finished as a top-30 fantasy running back in back-to-back seasons. During that span, Dillon has 435 touches including 62 receptions on 80 targets for 2,092 yards from scrimmage and 14 total touchdowns.
Perine is poised for a "significant role" in Denver's backfield throughout the season, and potentially an even more significant role in the early part of the season even though Williams won't miss any regular-season games to start the year. Sean Payton has a long history of giving substantial workloads to the team's second back.
Through five NFL seasons, Penny has missed nearly as many games (40) as he has played (42). When healthy, however, he has averaged 5.7 yards per carry over his career and an even-better 6.2 YPC over the past two seasons (176/1095/8). Aside from durability concerns, Penny hasn't been a factor in the passing game — 36 career targets in 42 games.
Coming off a career season, Williams carried the ball 262 times for 1,066 yards and a league-high 17 touchdowns. As long as both Kamara and Williams are active (after Kamara's three-game suspension), he'll be a complementary option to Kamara, but Williams could get the larger share of valuable goal-line opportunities.
The second-round pick was highly productive for the UCLA Bruins, and he has the skill set to be a foundation back. Unfortunately, Seattle is not an ideal landing spot for his 2023 fantasy outlook with Charbonnet expected to operate as the 1B to Walker's 1A in Seattle's ground attack. Given how much Pete Carroll would prefer to run the ball, however, there is a chance that he could approach stand-alone flex-level value even if Walker gets/stays healthy for a full season.
Following Wilson's midseason trade to Miami, both Raheem Mostert (Week 12) and Wilson (Week 15) missed one game each. In the games in which they both appeared, Wilson (82 touches) edged Mostert (80) in workload. Going into the 2023 season, I project Wilson to maintain a relatively slight edge, but the addition of De'Von Achane, their speedy third-round rookie, (and a potential signing of Dalvin Cook) only clouds the outlook even further.
Mostert missed only one game in 2022, but it was just the second season of his career where he didn't miss significant time. He has played only 61 games over the past six seasons. Without any new additions to the backfield, Mostert should get 10-12 touches per game as long as he's healthy, and he's never averaged less than 4.9 YPC in a season.
Allgeier was a player I liked as a sleeper last year, and the fifth-rounder out of BYU eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark as a rookie. He finished 2022 with 210 carries for 1,035 yards (4.9 YPC) and three touchdowns and added 16 receptions for 139 yards and a score. With the Falcons drafting Robinson at No. 8 overall, it obviously delivers a huge blow to Allgeier's fantasy stock.
The Athletic's Mark Kaboly wrote in June "[t]he way [Warren] attacks the hole during drills is something to be seen. ... there is no way [OC] Canada can keep him off the field as much as he did last season." Warren had 105 touches for 593 yards and a touchdown and finished as fantasy's RB51.
Through four seasons in Buffalo, Singletary had more than 150 carries and averaged exactly 2.4 receptions every year. The workload will almost certainly decline in Houston, but he would become a RB2 if Pierce were to miss any time.
McKinnon had nearly as many targets (71) as carries (72) last season, and he was extremely effective as a receiver. He ended the year with 56 catches for 512 yards (9.1 Y/R) and nine of his 10 touchdowns were receiving scores. While I have projected McKinnon for considerably fewer touchdowns in 2023, he could be a solid bye-week fill-in for fantasy squads, at a minimum.
By signing with the Patriots, Elliott boosts the fantasy stock (or at least diminishes a concern) for Tony Pollard, but it also knocks Stevenson down a couple of spots in my 2023 fantasy rankings. Elliott set career lows in his age-27 season (2022) with 231 carries and 876 rushing yards, and a realistic projection might be close to half of those numbers in 2023. Over the past three seasons combined, Elliott has averaged only 4.0 YPC, 6.2 Y/R and 4.3 yards per touch compared to 4.6, 8.6 and 5.2, respectively, over the first four years of his career (2016-19).
Sanders played a full 17-game last season, but he's currently dealing with a hamstring injury and appeared in only 12 games in both 2020 and 2021. While Sanders should be ready to go before Week 1, Hubbard would likely handle the largest share of the workload in the event that Sanders were to miss any time, and he averaged 4.9 YPC last season.
Mitchell won't offer much stand-alone value, but he would have enormous upside if Christian McCaffrey were to miss any time during the 2023 season. While CMC deserves to be considered at pick 1.01 in fantasy drafts, we've seen how productive non-CMC backs (including Mitchell) have been when given the opportunity.
The Jaguars used a third-round pick on Bigsby, and the former Auburn Tiger has impressed in the spring and summer. Doug Pederson has said that Bigsby is "better pass-catcher [than anticipated]." There is plenty of upside, even though his ADP has been on the rise, given expectations that Jacksonville plans to shift more of the workload off of Etienne's plate.
Foreman rushed for more than 110 yards in five of the final 11 games in 2022 for the Panthers. During that span, he racked up 191/877/5 rushing (4.59 YPC). Even if Herbert is the favorite to lead the backfield, Foreman could end up getting a little more run than expected.
Brock Purdy: Mr. Irrelevant is the term given to the final pick of each NFL draft, but Purdy, the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, was anything but irrelevant in his rookie season. From December through his final snap of the playoffs, Purdy completed 151-of-224 pass attempts (67.4%) for 1,877 yards (8.38 Y/A), 16 touchdowns (7.1%) and only three interceptions (1.3%). Firmly entrenched as the starter going into 2023, there appear to be no lingering concerns following his offseason UCL surgery.
Sam Darnold: Excluding a terrible performance (2.8 passer rating) in 2022's season finale with the Panthers, Darnold was playing really well before that last year. In fact, he threw for 1,100 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception with a 105.4 passer rating in his other five games last season while adding 74 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
Trey Lance: Lance has immense dual-threat upside if he gets the opportunity to make starts in 2023 and reaches his full potential, but it's possible that Sam Darnold would get the nod ahead of him if Purdy were to miss any time.
Christian McCaffrey: After two injury-plagued seasons, McCaffrey played a full 17-game slate in 2022 split between the Panthers and 49ers. If there's a concern (albeit only a slight one), it's the potential for the 49ers to scale back CMC's workload to preserve his health for a full season including the playoffs, especially given their talented supporting cast when at full strength.
When healthy, however, few, if any, running backs have a higher floor and ceiling due to his ability as a runner and receiver. From Week 7 (when SF traded for him) through the end of the season, he tied Tennessee's Derrick Henry for the most fantasy points per game (half-PPR). McCaffrey has a minimum of 80 catches in each of his four full seasons, and he's averaged 113.1 yards per scrimmage per game over his career.
Elijah Mitchell: Mitchell won't offer much stand-alone value, but he would have enormous upside if Christian McCaffrey were to miss any time during the 2023 season. While CMC deserves to be considered at pick 1.01 in fantasy drafts, we've seen how productive non-CMC backs (including Mitchell) have been when given the opportunity.
Deebo Samuel: Samuel has missed multiple games in two of the past three seasons, and his physical play style increases his durability risk. Playing in 13 games and describing his own play as "awful" last season, Samuel finished with 56 receptions for 632 yards and two touchdowns and added 42 carries for 232 yards and three touchdowns. At a minimum, a motivated Samuel should be better on a per-touch basis in 2023 than he was last year.
Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk had the best season of his young career in 2022 with 78 catches for 1,015 yards and eight touchdowns, all career highs, and he was a top-15 fantasy wide receiver (half-PPR scoring). The only concern with Aiyuk, and other San Francisco skill-position players, is the competition for touches with so many talented pass catchers on the roster.
George Kittle: Compared to his elite talent, Kittle is often under-targeted. Even so, he has finished as a top-four fantasy tight end in four of the past five seasons. The exception was when he missed eight games in 2020, but he finished third on a PPG basis that season behind Travis Kelce and Darren Waller. The other concern with Kittle is he has missed multiple games in four consecutive seasons, but he has averaged 70.4/947.8/5.8 per 17 games over the past five years.
