Sunday, May 6, 2018

2018 Fantasy Football Projections: Houston Texans

In addition to viewing our 2018 Fantasy Football Projections by position, we will post our preseason projections per team.

Below you will find our 2018 fantasy football projections for the Houston Texans.

Quarterbacks

 

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDFLPoints
Deshaun Watson458.6288.9371529.414.773.9480.43.73.5300.04
Offensive line woes and lack of experience did not slow Watson down as a rookie. Unfortunately, an ACL tear did. Before the injury, however, Watson finished with the most or second-most fantasy points in each of his final four games and eclipsed the 30-point mark in three of those four outings. Expectations are high entering season two, but he has legitimate QB1 upside for 2018 if he can stay healthy for a full season.
Brandon Weeden35.322.92541.11.12.2700.112.86
Joe Webb10.15.1590.30.46.743.60.10.18.27

More Fantasy Football QB Resources:

Running Backs

 

PlayerAtt.YardsTDRec.YardsTDFLPoints
Lamar Miller161.3661.33.232.2273.72.60.5127.3
Miller has two 1,000-yard seasons since 2014, but he was even less efficient in 2017 (career-low 3.7 YPC) than he was in 2016 (4.0). The Texans have one of the league's worst offensive lines (actually the worst if you go by PFF rankings) and the line won't be markedly better in 2018. Even more troubling for Miller, D'Onta Foreman could eventually emerge as the primary back with Miller serving more of a complementary passing-down type of role.
D'Onta Foreman156.8658.66.39.5760.31.2110.66
Foreman's rookie season was cut short due to an Achilles injury. Assuming he's ready for the start of the season, Foreman should at least form a committee with Lamar Miller and it's certainly possible that he handles the larger share of the split by season's end.
Alfred Blue29.1104.80.45.841.20.30.418
Jay Prosch2.25.50.14.334.40.205.79
Tyler Ervin2.27.705.326.50.20.53.62

More Fantasy Football RB Resources:

Wide Receivers

 

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDFLPoints
DeAndre Hopkins101.61432.68.60001192.86
Leading the NFL in receiving touchdowns (13) last season, Hopkins now has four seasons with 75-plus catches and three seasons with 1,200-plus yards through his age-25 season. With a league-high 174 targets last season, Hopkins had 35-percent target share in 10 of 15 games and double-digit targets 11 times. As the focal point of Houston's offense, he arguably has the highest floor among all receivers in the league. A model of consistency, Hopkins had 70-plus yards and/or a touchdown (plus) in all 15 games last year.
Will Fuller43.5635.15.24.521.60194.87
The Texans scored 30.71 (real) points per game with Deshaun Watson under center; only 13.67 without him. As you'd expect, the games that Fuller played with Watson were much better than those without him. Both were on the field together for just four games, but Fuller scored seven touchdowns in those four games! Durability is a concern for both as Fuller has missed multiple games in both seasons and Watson is returning from a torn ACL, but there is plenty of upside for Fuller if both maintain good health in 2018.
Bruce Ellington19.4221.21.22.211.401.228.06
Braxton Miller19.6160.714.51800.323.27
Keke Coutee7.61140.80000.315.6
Sammie Coates2.5400.40000.16.2
DeAndrew White1.5210.100002.7

More Fantasy Football WR Resources:

Tight Ends

 

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDFLPoints
Stephen Anderson17.7221.31.40000.130.33
Anderson played 15 games last season and set career highs with 25 receptions for 342 yards. With less than 20 yards in nine of those 15 games, Anderson has more upside than Griffin, but neither tight end is much more than a streaming option. On a positive note, Houston's tight ends have the league's most favorable fantasy football strength of schedule.
Ryan Griffin19.4203.71.20000.227.17
Griffin has averaged 20-something yards per game in each of the past three seasons. With C.J. Fiedorowicz (concussions) retiring, it's possible that Griffin sets a career-high per-game average but I wouldn't expect a significant jump.
Jordan Akins4.650.60.30000.16.66

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2018 Fantasy Football Profile: Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans

While the Houston Texans traded up to draft their franchise quarterback, the plan wasn't for him to see the field in 2017.

That plan lasted all of 30 minutes.

Taking over for a benched Tom Savage, it didn't take long for Deshaun Watson to become a fantasy stud before his season ended prematurely due to a torn ACL (Week 8). Despite the season-ending injury last season, all signs point to a recovery timeline that appears to be ahead of schedule.

In his final four games, Watson finished as fantasy's QB1 or QB2 in ALL four games. Meanwhile, he scored 32-plus fantasy points in three of those four games.

Over that four-game stretch, the rookie signal-caller threw for 1,171 yards and 16 touchdowns while also rushing for 145 yards and a score.

Watson's dual-threat abilities provide him with a solid weekly floor and tremendous upside. Rushing for a 34/253/2 line in six starts, that per-game pace of 5.67/42.17/0.33 is the equivalent of 6.22 fantasy points per game from his rushing stats alone.

Even though he missed slightly more than half the season, no quarterback averaged more fantasy points on a per-game basis than Watson (24.1). The only other quarterbacks that averaged 20-plus fantasy points per game were Carson Wentz (21.8) and Russell Wilson (21.7).

Talented weapons, woeful offensive line


The Texans have one of the league's best wide receivers in DeAndre Hopkins, who bounced back with 96 catches for 1,378 yards and a league-high 13 touchdowns last season. Since his breakout 2014 sophomore season, Hopkins has 5,063 receiving yards and 34 touchdowns, both of which are third-most in the NFL.

In addition to Hopkins, Will Fuller provides Watson and the Texans with a deep threat. Fuller played just 10 games including four games with Watson under center. In those four games both were on the field, they connected for (all of Fuller's) seven (2017) scores.

Watson's mobility helps to make up for an offensive line that was ranked 32nd (i.e., last) in the NFL by PFF for 2017. While they drafted Mississippi State's Martinas Rankin in Round 3 of the 2018 NFL Draft and he's a nice value selection, it would have been nice to see them add more reinforcements to the line. Either way, they will continue to have one of the league's worst offensive lines heading into 2018.

That leads to durability. As is true with any dual-threat quarterback, there is a greater chance of injury by being exposed to more hits. With a leaky offensive line as well, Watson's durability risk is on the higher side even though he should be (close to) 100 percent by the start of the season.

Fantasy Football SOS


Even though Watson and the Texans have to face the Jaguars twice this year (and every year), they face the league's stingiest fantasy defense in Week 17. Since most leagues conclude their playoffs in Week 16, that second matchup against Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye & Co. is excluded from our fantasy strength of schedule calculations.

Based on the fantasy points allowed in 2017 of Houston's 2018 opponents, Watson has the third-most favorable fantasy strength of schedule (Week 1 to 16 opponents) and the fifth-best fantasy playoffs SOS (Weeks 14 to 16).

- View full Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule

Fantasy Football ADP

 

Fantasy Football ADP for Deshaun  Watson

Going more than a round earlier than mid-April, Watson is currently being drafted at the end of Round 3. In general, the challenge with drafting a quarterback early is the missed opportunity to draft an impact player with greater positional value.

Only Aaron Rodgers (3.01) is being drafted earlier than Watson (3.10, 35th overall). Russell Wilson (47th overall) and Tom Brady (50th) are the next QBs off the board.

Deshaun Watson: Full Season Projections


Below you will find full-season projections for Houston Texans QB Deshaun Watson for the 2018 NFL season:

Att.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDFFB Points
458.6288.9371529.414.773.9480.43.7300.04

- Houston Texans 2018 Fantasy Football Projections
- More Fantasy Football Projections

Bottom line: Overvalued


In general, QBs drafted early will get the "overvalued" tag from me given the opportunity cost of missing out on an elite running back or wide receiver that has greater positional value. Due to Watson's recent surge in ADP to late-Round 3 (via FFC), much of his legitimate QB1 upside has been priced into his ADP. I'd much rather use a top-36 pick on an elite non-QB and target Carson Wentz in Round 7 (current ADP) or even wait much later and stream QBs based on matchup.

Sunday, April 22, 2018

2018 Fantasy Football WR Strength of Schedule (SOS): Weeks 1 to 16

Now that the NFL has released the 2018 NFL Schedule, we have updated our 2018 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule pages.

Our fantasy football strength of schedule (SOS) rankings for each position are based on last year's production. In other words, we average the fantasy points allowed per game (in 2017) for every team's set of 2018 opponents. The higher the number listed below, the more cumulative fantasy points their 2018 opponents allowed in 2017.

A player's fantasy strength of schedule is far from the most important aspect of his outlook. But if you're debating a pair of players to draft and they are otherwise comparable in your view, a more favorable fantasy schedule could potentially break the tie.

Embed from Getty Images

RankTeamPlayerCumulative PointsFantasy Playoffs
1Washington RedskinsJamison Crowder21.357.26
2Jacksonville JaguarsMarqise Lee20.8456
3Atlanta FalconsJulio Jones20.7467.83
4Chicago BearsAllen Robinson20.5861.81
5New York GiantsOdell Beckham20.5260.5
6Los Angeles RamsRobert Woods20.561.41
7San Francisco 49ersPierre Garcon20.4657.78
8Dallas CowboysAllen Hurns20.4567.11
9Minnesota VikingsAdam Theilen20.4357.07
10Philadelphia EaglesAlshon Jeffery20.3760.62
11Miami DolphinsDeVante Parker20.2755.45
12Buffalo BillsKelvin Benjamin20.2363.83
13Denver BroncosDemaryius Thomas20.2161.08
14Seattle SeahawksDoug Baldwin20.1363.44
14Tampa Bay BuccaneersMike Evans20.1358.46
16Detroit LionsGolden Tate20.1255.52
17Carolina PanthersDevin Funchess20.1159.95
18Cleveland BrownsJarvis Landry20.0156.87
19Cincinnati BengalsA.J. Green19.9259.39
20Houston TexansDeAndre Hopkins19.8864.15
21New Orleans SaintsMichael Thomas19.8666.52
21Baltimore RavensMichael Crabtree19.8668.58
23Pittsburgh SteelersAntonio Brown19.6963.46
24New England PatriotsJulian Edelman19.6853.47
25Arizona CardinalsLarry Fitzgerald19.6354.33
26Los Angeles ChargersKeenan Allen19.6257.38
27Tennessee TitansCorey Davis19.5954.35
28Indianapolis ColtsT.Y. Hilton19.5766.09
29New York JetsTerrelle Pryor19.3864.47
30Green Bay PackersDavante Adams19.2860.38
31Oakland RaidersAmari Cooper19.1952.93
32Kansas City ChiefsTyreek Hill18.7956.47

Note: Average PPG are based on Weeks 1 to 16.
Fantasy playoffs are cumulative total for Weeks 14 to 16.

Full Strength of Schedules: More of our content: Keep track of our site's updates: (1) follow us on Twitter, (2) LIKE us on Facebook and/or (3) add us to your Google+ circle.

2018 Fantasy Football RB Strength of Schedule (SOS): Weeks 1 to 16

Now that the NFL has released the 2018 NFL Schedule, we have updated our 2018 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule pages.

Our fantasy football strength of schedule (SOS) rankings for each position are based on last year's production. In other words, we average the fantasy points allowed per game (in 2017) for every team's set of 2018 opponents. The higher the number listed below, the more cumulative fantasy points their 2018 opponents allowed in 2017.

A player's fantasy strength of schedule is far from the most important aspect of his outlook. But if you're debating a pair of players to draft and they are otherwise comparable in your view, a more favorable fantasy schedule could potentially break the tie.

Embed from Getty Images

RankTeamPlayerCumulative PointsFantasy Playoffs
1Chicago BearsJordan Howard18.9759.33
2New England PatriotsRex Burkhead18.8160.87
3Minnesota VikingsDalvin Cook18.757.57
4Tennessee TitansDerrick Henry18.6757.91
5Oakland RaidersMarshawn Lynch18.6255.99
6New York JetsBilal Powell18.5759.25
7Miami DolphinsFrank Gore18.5648.5
8Denver BroncosDevontae Booker18.5455.97
9Baltimore RavensAlex Collins18.5158.05
10Arizona CardinalsDavid Johnson18.557.14
11Jacksonville JaguarsLeonard Fournette18.4957.44
12Cleveland BrownsCarlos Hyde18.4852.4
12Los Angeles ChargersMelvin Gordon18.4857.48
14Indianapolis ColtsMarlon Mack18.4653.25
15Carolina PanthersChristian McCaffrey18.4251.61
16Kansas City ChiefsKareem Hunt18.4156.37
17Houston TexansLamar Miller18.3853.36
18Buffalo BillsLeSean McCoy18.3657.84
19Cincinnati BengalsJoe Mixon18.2655.56
20Pittsburgh SteelersLe'Veon Bell18.1453.81
21Green Bay PackersTy Montgomery18.0853.58
22Seattle SeahawksChris Carson17.9750.48
23New Orleans SaintsAlvin Kamara17.9254.29
24Dallas CowboysEzekiel Elliott17.954.5
25San Francisco 49ersJerick McKinnon17.8651.58
26Philadelphia EaglesJay Ajayi17.8254.32
27Atlanta FalconsDevonta Freeman17.7749.49
28New York GiantsJonathan Stewart17.757.68
29Tampa Bay BuccaneersJacquizz Rodgers17.6953.27
30Detroit LionsAmeer Abdullah17.5950.83
31Washington RedskinsChris Thompson17.4453.75
32Los Angeles RamsTodd Gurley17.2946.61

Note: Average PPG are based on Weeks 1 to 16.
Fantasy playoffs are cumulative total for Weeks 14 to 16.

Full Strength of Schedules:
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2018 Fantasy Football TE Strength of Schedule (SOS): Weeks 1 to 16

Now that the NFL has released the 2018 NFL Schedule, we have updated our 2018 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule pages.

Our fantasy football strength of schedule (SOS) rankings for each position are based on last year's production. In other words, we average the fantasy points allowed per game (in 2017) for every team's set of 2018 opponents. The higher the number listed below, the more cumulative fantasy points their 2018 opponents allowed in 2017.

A player's fantasy strength of schedule is far from the most important aspect of his outlook. But if you're debating a pair of players to draft and they are otherwise comparable in your view, a more favorable fantasy schedule could potentially break the tie.

Embed from Getty Images

RankTeamPlayerCumulative PointsFantasy Playoffs
1Houston TexansRyan Griffin7.9922.65
2Tennessee TitansDelanie Walker7.8325.96
3Indianapolis ColtsJack Doyle7.8126.31
4Jacksonville JaguarsAustin Seferian-Jenkins7.7126.47
5New York JetsJordan Leggett7.6622.08
6Oakland RaidersJared Cook7.522.08
7Cincinnati BengalsTyler Eifert7.4724.73
8Dallas CowboysJason Witten7.3919.89
9New England PatriotsRob Gronkowski7.2922.88
10Philadelphia EaglesZach Ertz7.2821.82
11Kansas City ChiefsTravis Kelce7.2420.27
12Buffalo BillsCharles Clay7.2222.49
13Washington RedskinsJordan Reed7.1823.86
14Pittsburgh SteelersJesse James7.1719.97
15Denver BroncosJeff Heuerman7.1424.12
16Los Angeles ChargersHunter Henry7.120.1
17Carolina PanthersGreg Olsen7.0822.02
18Miami DolphinsMarQueis Gray7.0517.18
19Chicago BearsTrey Burton7.0418.76
20New York GiantsEvan Engram7.0224.19
20Tampa Bay BuccaneersCameron Brate7.0219.07
22Cleveland BrownsDavid Njoku6.9822.9
23Arizona CardinalsJermaine Gresham6.9521.53
24Baltimore RavensNick Boyle6.9318.92
24New Orleans SaintsBenjamin Watson6.9317.08
26Green Bay PackersJimmy Graham6.8821.24
27Minnesota VikingsKyle Rudolph6.8624.14
27San Francisco 49ersGeorge Kittle6.8621.55
29Atlanta FalconsAustin Hooper6.8518.41
30Seattle SeahawksEd Dickson6.7517.82
31Los Angeles RamsGerald Everett6.6318.98
32Detroit LionsLuke Willson6.4818.46

Note: Average PPG are based on Weeks 1 to 16.
Fantasy playoffs are cumulative total for Weeks 14 to 16.

Full Strength of Schedules: More of our content: Keep track of our site's updates: (1) follow us on Twitter, (2) LIKE us on Facebook and/or (3) add us to your Google+ circle.

2018 Fantasy Football QB Strength of Schedule (SOS): Weeks 1 to 16

Now that the NFL has released the 2018 NFL Schedule, we have updated our 2018 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule pages.

Our fantasy football strength of schedule (SOS) rankings for each position are based on last year's production. In other words, we average the fantasy points allowed per game (in 2017) for every team's set of 2018 opponents. The higher the number listed below, the more cumulative fantasy points their 2018 opponents allowed in 2017.

A player's fantasy strength of schedule is far from the most important aspect of his outlook. But if you're debating a pair of players to draft and they are otherwise comparable in your view, a more favorable fantasy schedule could potentially break the tie.

Embed from Getty Images
RankTeamPlayerAverage PPGFantasy Playoffs
1Jacksonville JaguarsBlake Bortles16.3647.94
1Washington RedskinsAlex Smith16.3645.14
3Houston TexansDeshaun Watson15.9650.01
4Chicago BearsMitchell Trubisky15.8647.89
5Denver BroncosCase Keenum15.852.99
6Indianapolis ColtsAndrew Luck15.7853.47
6Miami DolphinsRyan Tannehill15.7839.42
8Atlanta FalconsMatt Ryan15.6949.82
9Philadelphia EaglesCarson Wentz15.6746.74
10Minnesota VikingsKirk Cousins15.6445.04
11Cleveland BrownsTyrod Taylor15.646.05
12New York GiantsEli Manning15.5948.22
13Carolina PanthersCam Newton15.5549.87
14Dallas CowboysDak Prescott15.5348.24
14Buffalo BillsA.J. McCarron15.5350.93
16Tampa Bay BuccaneersJameis Winston15.5242.9
17Baltimore RavensJoe Flacco15.5147.57
18Cincinnati BengalsAndy Dalton15.4848.77
19Los Angeles ChargersPhilip Rivers15.3543.41
20Tennessee TitansMarcus Mariota15.3444.19
21Seattle SeahawksRussell Wilson15.3346.79
22Los Angeles RamsJared Goff15.2944.63
23New York JetsJosh McCown15.2549.03
24New Orleans SaintsDrew Brees15.2245.72
25Pittsburgh SteelersBen Roethlisberger15.2150.17
26San Francisco 49ersJimmy Garoppolo15.241.52
27New England PatriotsTom Brady15.1843.33
28Oakland RaidersDerek Carr15.1344.35
29Arizona CardinalsSam Bradford15.1143.95
30Detroit LionsMatthew Stafford14.9741.25
31Green Bay PackersAaron Rodgers14.8248.43
32Kansas City ChiefsPatrick Mahomes14.7738.36
Average PPG are based on Weeks 1 to 16.
Fantasy playoffs are cumulative total for Weeks 14 to 16.
* Note: Totals above are the average fantasy football points allowed based on their remaining opponents.

Full Strength of Schedules: More of our content: Keep track of our site's updates: (1) follow us on Twitter, (2) LIKE us on Facebook and/or (3) add us to your Google+ circle.

Friday, April 13, 2018

Cowboys release Dez Bryant

Widely-expected but now official, the Dallas Cowboys released wide receiver Dez Bryant on Friday.

A once-dominant receiver (especially in the red zone), no player had caught more touchdowns (41) than Bryant over the three-year span from 2012 to 2014. During that stretch, Bryant finished with a minimum of 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns each season.

The on-field chemistry that he shared with Tony Romo never developed with Dak Prescott.

Exceeding 75 yards only once (98, Week 4) last season, Bryant finished the year with 69 catches for 838 yards and six touchdowns. Based on his production, Bryant wasn't worth his $16.5 million cap hit.

His release saves the Cowboys $8.5 in cap space, but the roster lacks playmakers in the passing game.

While they added Allen Hurns and Deonte Thompson in free agency, neither is more than a complementary player. The other top receivers on the roster include Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley, Ryan Switzer and Noah Brown.

In addition to a mediocre (at best) receiving corps (without Dez), the Cowboys have one of the all-time greats at tight end, but Jason Witten (turns 36 next month) is near the very end, perhaps final year, of his career. Averaging a career-low 8.9 Y/A last season, Witten is a reliable but non-threatening target over the middle.

Given the dearth of pass-catchers on the roster, the Cowboys may feel forced to draft a receiver with the 19th pick even though there may not be a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver in this year's draft class. In my latest 2018 NFL mock draft, I have the Cowboys going defense (Leighton Vander Esch) in Round 1 but drafting tight end Mike Gesicki in Round 2.

Thursday, April 12, 2018

Cleveland Browns sign Jarvis Landry to 5-year extension

The Miami Dolphins used their franchise tag on wide receiver Jarvis Landry before trading him to the Cleveland Browns for a pair of Day 3 draft picks.

The Browns have now signed Landry to a five-year extension worth $75.5 million, of which $47 million is guaranteed, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.

Landry posted a league-leading 112 catches last season for 987 yards and a career-high nine touchdowns.

Since entering the league four seasons ago, Landry has 400 receptions for 4,038 yards and 22 touchdowns. He also has 26 carries for 119 yards and a score. Over that four-year span, only Antonio Brown (472) and Julio Jones (411) have more receptions than Landry, who also ranks 12th in receiving yards over that stretch.

While Landry's deal is more than I'd expect, he provides a reliable weapon for whomever John Dorsey drafts first overall (our 2018 NFL Mock Draft).

Depending on what the Browns get from Josh Gordon, who has played 10 games over the past four seasons, and Corey Coleman, who has missed 13 games in his first two seasons, the Browns could have one of the better wide receiver trios for years to come.

Saturday, April 7, 2018

POLL: Will the 2018 NFL Draft begin with a QB-QB-QB start?

At this point, it seems to be a virtual lock that the Cleveland Browns will draft a quarterback with the first overall pick.

More than likely, USC's Sam Darnold will be the pick. That said, a "friend" of Browns GM John Dorsey expects the pick to be Wyoming's Josh Allen.

No quarterback has more upside than Allen and the Browns can afford to sit whichever signal-caller they select here with Tyrod Taylor as the team's 2018 starter.

When the Jets traded three second-round picks -- two this year and one next year -- to move up three spots (from No. 6 to No. 3), it wasn't to draft Saquon Barkley, Bradley Chubb or Quenton Nelson, the top-three prospects in this year's draft class and all non-QBs.

Like the Browns, the New York Jets have long struggled to find their franchise quarterback and the amount they've given up to move up makes it all but certain that the Jets will draft a quarterback. By re-signing Josh McCown, the Jets have an ideal bridge quarterback for whomever they select.

That leaves the New York Giants at No. 2.

In his career, Dave Gettleman has yet to trade back. In any round. Ever.

Most view Saquon Barkley as the top prospect and the Giants need to address the running game. Meanwhile, both Chubb and Nelson fill positions of need. So, in other words, the best players in the draft match team needs and it's certainly possible that the team decides that they could win now with Eli Manning under center and filling other needs in the draft.

Then again, it's rare that they pick this high. As we've heard often throughout the offseason, the last time was when they drafted Hall-of-Famer Lawrence Taylor.

It would make more sense for the Giants to either draft a quarterback like UCLA's Josh Rosen and prepare for life after Eli or trade back and acquire the princely sum they would receive from another quarterback-needy team like the Buffalo Bills, who may want to get in front of the Jets.

At the moment, our 2018 NFL Mock Draft begins with a QB-QB-QB start as we project the Giants to trade back.

With all of that said, will the draft start QB-QB-QB or will a non-QB be selected with one of the top-three picks?

Also, check out: