Friday, November 13, 2020

Week 10 Fantasy Football QB Start'em, Sit'em

The decision on which player to start, or sit, largely comes down to the options on your roster (and/or possibly the players available on your league's waiver wire).

As an example, Jared Goff is listed below as a "start" for Week 10. And I'd certainly be comfortable going into Week 10 with him as my starting quarterback.

Then again, Goff may be a "sit" for your team.

In other words, if you own both Russell Wilson and Goff, you should start Wilson and, in turn, bench Goff.

For a more direct answer on whether we would start Player X over Player Y, check our Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings. Instead of making those direct comparisons, the goal here is to highlight players that we like, or dislike, for the week.

Week 10 Fantasy Football QB Start'em

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (at MIA)

The sixth-overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, Herbert continues to destroy even the most optimistic expectations that anyone could have set for him. Scoring a minimum of 23 fantasy points in five consecutive starts, the rookie has finished as fantasy's QB7, QB4, QB1, QB4, QB11, respectively, in those weeks. During that five-game span, the former Oregon Duck has thrown multiple touchdowns every week while compiling a 15-to-three TD-INT ratio.

Not only is he having success as a passer, but Herbert has the mobility to make plays with his legs as well. Since becoming the starter in Week 2, he has averaged 23.7 rushing yards per game, which puts him on a (15-game) pace of 355.7 rushing yards.

The Miami Dolphins are currently on a four-game winning streak and one of the main reasons has been their defense. While they don't present Herbert with a great matchup, they allowed Kyler Murray to score a week-high 37.92 fantasy points last week. At this point, Herbert, the QB7 in my ROS fantasy rankings, has been a matchup-proof weekly starter.

Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles (at NYG)

In his first matchup against the Giants, Wentz threw for a season-high 359 yards. In fact, that remains his only 300-yard performance of the season. While he hasn't thrown for gaudy yardage totals, Wentz has multiple passing touchdowns in four consecutive games. In addition, he has rushed for five touchdowns this season as well.

Over his past six games, Wentz has scored 19.42 fantasy points (or more) in five of six games. During that span, he has averaged 22.69 per contest.

Another positive for Wentz is the team's overall improved health among its pass-catchers. Travis Fulgham has become a force for Wentz, but the team's MASH unit of pass-catchers are getting healthier as well.

Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams (vs. SEA)

If you've inserted Goff into your starting lineup lately, you've likely been disappointed with the results. Turning in a very mediocre performance (QB17) so far this season, Goff has finished as fantasy's weekly QB18 or worse in four of his past five outings. During that five-game span, he's averaged only 16.4 fantasy points per game.

With the Seattle Seahawks coming to Tinseltown this week, Goff's outlook vastly improves in Week 10. No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season than Seattle. In addition, only Drew Brees has a more favorable remaining fantasy football strength of schedule than Goff.

Back to the matchup against the Seahawks, they have allowed 300-plus passing yards every week except against the Vikings (Week 5). In addition, they have allowed six top-10 quarterback performances in eight weeks including a trio of top-two performances.

Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders (vs. DEN)

The past two weeks have been low-volume (24 pass attempts or less) fantasy duds for Carr. In those two games, Carr has thrown for only 111 and 165 yards and finished the week as fantasy's QB21 and QB22, respectively.

Throwing 16 touchdowns to only two interceptions this season, Carr has been efficient as his 6.2% TD% is a career high and his 0.8 INT% is a career low. Meanwhile, Carr's 7.8 Y/A is the second highest of his career next to last year's 7.9 Y/A.

The Broncos have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Based on implied totals from Vegas odds, the Raiders have one of the week's higher projected totals.

Week 10 Fantasy Football QB Sit'em

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (vs. WAS)

Against the Vikings last week, Stafford threw for 211 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions to finish as fantasy's QB26 last week. Aside from two performances (Week 4 and Week 8), Stafford has finished as the weekly QB15 or worse in every other game this season. Perhaps Stafford bucks his current trend of disappointing performances, but Washington has allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season and he will once again be without stud receiver Kenny Golladay (hip).

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings (at CHI)

As the Vikings attempt to sweep the NFC North over the past three weeks, it's possible that the Vikings keep Cousins' pass attempts low once again. Cousins threw just 14 and 20 pass attempts, respectively, in wins over the Packers and Lions over the past two weeks. Before these two wins, Cousins had dream matchups against the Texans (Week 4), Seahawks (Week 5) and Falcons (Week 6), three of the seven most generous fantasy defenses. Even so, Cousins has finished as the weekly QB17 (or worse) in four of his past five outings. Given that the Bears allow the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, there is little reason for optimism for Cousins this week.

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (at PIT)

Since Week 2, Burrows has thrown for either 300 yards and/or multiple touchdowns in six of seven games. This year's top draft pick also has volume on his side as he's averaged 41.25 pass attempts per game this season. Excluding a Week 5 loss to Baltimore, he's thrown at least 36 pass attempts every game this season. That said, Burrow could struggle this week as he draws a bottom-five matchup against the Steelers.

Cam Newton, New England Patriots (vs. BAL)

If you roster/start Newton, you're hoping for a rushing score (or two). In his first season as Patriots quarterback, Newton has rushed for eight touchdowns this season. Meanwhile, Newton hasn't thrown a touchdown since Week 3 and has only two passing scores (and seven interceptions) on the season. In a difficult matchup against the Ravens, I expect Wink Martindale to force Newton (and the team's uninspiring group of receivers) to beat them through the air.

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