Thursday, November 30, 2017

DFS Round Table: Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 13

Every week of the 2017 NFL season, our contributors will provide their favorite DraftKings play of the week and share their thoughts in our weekly DFS Round Table post.

In some cases, the play is intended for tournaments (i.e., Guaranteed Prize Pools or GPPs); in other cases, it's for cash games (e.g., head-to-heads and 50-50's). Or both.

Who is your favorite DraftKings play for Week 13?

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John Trifone: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans ($7,300)

Like most, I had a lot of concerns about Hopkins and everyone on the Texans offense when Deshaun Watson got hurt and Tom Savage took over. That concern appears to be justified for the rest of the team, but certainly not for Hopkins. Although moving forward with Savage, his TD expectation is lower, with Houston averaging close to 20 fewer PPG, Hopkins more than makes up for it on volume. He’s averaged 12 targets/game with Savage, who uses Hopkins as a security blanket. He is definitely underpriced at $7,300 and I expect he’ll have appropriately high ownership.

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Brendan Donahue: Jamaal Williams, RB, Green Bay Packers ($4,700)

Ever since Aaron Jones went down, the playing time and more importantly the carries have gone up for Williams. In the past three games, he's carried it 20, 18 and 21 times. And last week he added four catches for 69 yards and a TD. I'm using the same theory as I did on Joe Mixon last week (which paid off nicely). If you can find a running back that gets the bulk of the work for under $5K on DraftKings, then you are getting a bargain. While not as talented as Mixon, Williams has the opportunity to have a big week based on volume just like he did last week.

Kevin Hanson: Jared Cook, TE, Oakland Raiders ($5,400)

Like Brendan, I considered listing Williams as well, but I'll go in a different direction for some variety. Coming off a one-catch, one-yard performance, Cook's ownership may be slightly lower than it otherwise would in Week 13. With Michael Crabtree suspended and Amari Cooper (concussion, ankle) iffy, at best, Cook should be more featured this week and his matchup is as good as it gets. No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing tight ends than the Giants, who have allowed a league-most 10 TDs to the position this season.

Dan Yanotchko: Robby Anderson, WR, New York Jets ($6,300)

This week, I am keying in on Robby Anderson of the Jets. Anderson has certainly had lots of volume lately, as his last-four splits are 28 targets, 20 receptions, 383 yards and five touchdowns. Anderson has a great matchup against a Kansas City defense that allows 246 yards passing per game with 17 touchdowns as well. Great mid-level guy with lots of upside this week.

Sean Beazley: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans ($7,300)

This comes as no shock, but I’m picking Texans WR Deandre Hopkins at $7,300 vs. the Titans. This might be the third or fourth time I have recommended this play, and it usually does not let me down. The loss of Deshaun Watson was huge for this Texans offense, but Hopkins' targets really haven’t gone down as much. He had a great game vs. a very good Ravens secondary last week, and the Titans can definitely be beat through the air. Hopkins will be a staple of my cash lineup and I will be overweight in GPPs as well.

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Sunday, November 26, 2017

Week 12 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Beazley)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are Sean Beazley's Week 12 NFL picks against the spread:

Kansas City Chiefs -9 over Buffalo Bills (4 units)

After a horrible performance against the Giants last week, I like the Chiefs to rebound and blow out the Giants at home this week. I think Kareem Hunt has a big game in the win. Chiefs 31, Bills 13.

Seattle Seahawks -7 over San Francisco 49ers (5 units)

I know this is a division game, but the 49ers are a bad football team. I think Russell Wilson feasts on this 49ers defense. Seahawks 27, 49ers 17.

Titans at Colts, Over 46.0 (5 units)

The Titans defense is beatable through the air. I don’t think the Colts will have any problems moving the ball here. On the flip side, the Colts give up a ton of big plays. I think Tennessee has not one, not two, but three TDs over 45 yards Sunday. Titans 37, Colts 33.
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Week 12 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Yanotchko)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are Dan Yanotchko's Week 12 NFL picks against the spread:

Miami Dolphins +16.5 over New England Patriots (3 units)

This has been quite the underdog year, and it seems the spreads have jumped quite wide in the last few weeks as we separate the haves from the have-nots. The Dolphins always play New England tough at home, but they will try to stay in the playoff race with a victory at Foxboro, and they will be without starting quarterback Jay Cutler. For me, this is a win for Miami, as I believe the Dolphins are a better team with Matt Moore under center.

The Dolphins do have a decent defense, as they are middle of the pack in allowing 229 yards per game thorough the air, and of course, Tom Brady showed up on the injury report with an Achilles injury, and he will be without his starting center and right tackle. The Dolphins will also be able to grind out yards on the ground, as the Patriots allow 119 yards rushing per game, and 5.0 yards per carry. Miami is not in the level of New England, but I think they are within 16 points of them.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10.0 over Atlanta Falcons (3 units)

The Falcons have shown signs of life recently, and they are coming off a massive Monday Night Football win on the road in Seattle. Tampa certainly has to be one of the most disappointing stories of the year, as they had such high expectations and an amazing offensive core. I still think that 10 points is just too high for a divisional game, and not while Atlanta still has not found their entire footing. I feel that Atlanta is due for a mental let-down on a short week, and also I look for the Buccaneers to be able to control the clock with their running game. The Falcons allow 115 yards rushing per game and 4.5 yards per carry, so I expect them to use Doug Martin heavy this game, and still have the quick strike ability with Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson for the back-door cover. Atlanta should win this game, but I think the number is too high here.

Baltimore Ravens -7 over Houston Texans (4 units)

What can you really say about these two teams, but hope you like defense, as this will be one of the ugliest Monday Night Football games in recent memory. The Texans have looked awful with Tom Savage at quarterback, and things do not get any easier for him, as he is going against one of the best passing defenses in the league. The Ravens have been amazing against the pass, as they only allow 185 yards passing per game, a 56.9% completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks, and they have more interceptions (16) than touchdowns allowed (11). This will be a game where the Ravens smother the Texans, and probably grind it out on eight Justin Tucker field goals. I just think the Texans have lost too many key players to injury, and will not be able to handle this Baltimore defense.
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Week 12 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are John Trifone's Week 12 NFL picks against the spread:

Denver Broncos +4.5 over Oakland Raiders (4 units)

The Broncos have been incredibly disappointing and now are going to Paxton Lynch to try and turn things around. He’ll get the worst pass defense in the league in Oakland, who may be the most disappointing team of the year based on expectations coming in. They are coming off an embarrassing loss against the Patriots where they were not even competitive. I like the Broncos outright here so I’ll take the points.

Miami Dolphins +16.5 over New England Patriots (3 units)

This one doesn’t require too much analysis. The Patriots are the far superior team and the Dolphins aren’t very good. I consider Matt Moore an upgrade over Jay Cutler, and both Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski are banged up. Ultimately, this one just comes down to it being too many points. New England could blow them out and still give up a backdoor cover. I like the Dolphins and the points.

Titans at Colts, Over 45.5 (4 units)

I like Marcus Mariota to have a big game in Indianapolis this week. Although Rishard Matthews is hurt and likely won’t play, I like Corey Davis and Delanie Walker to do some damage. On the other side, Jacoby Brissett is out of concussion protocol and should have success himself. This is a matchup with two bad defenses and I like the over to hit.
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Saturday, November 25, 2017

Week 12 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Hanson)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

Three games into Week 12 already, all three favorites covered on Thanksgiving and there are plenty of big spreads in the remaining games this week. In the 13 games remaining, eight of them have spreads of at least a touchdown including three that have spreads of 14-plus points.

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With that said, here are my Week 12 NFL picks against the spread:

New Orleans Saints +2 over Los Angeles Rams (3 units)

In what is projected to be the highest-scoring game of the week based on Vegas totals, this game should be one of the most entertaining. While Drew Brees remains an elite quarterback, the Saints have the league's most dynamic 1-2 punch in the backfield with Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Over the past six weeks, Ingram has four 100-yard rushing games and eight rushing scores. Meanwhile, Kamara has 100-plus yards from scrimmage in four of his past five games with five scores over that span.

Jared Goff has taken a big step forward in his sophomore campaign by throwing 16 touchdowns and only four interceptions and both of New Orleans starting cornerbacks -- Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley -- will miss this week's game. That's a concern, but I think the Saints pull off the "upset" and win this game outright.

Buffalo Bills +9.5 over Kansas City Chiefs (2 units)

In what may have been the worst half of quarterback play ever, Nathan Peterman threw five interceptions in the first half last week before the team switched back to Tyrod Taylor. Not surprisingly, the Bills will start Taylor this week against the Chiefs. The Bills are expected to be without Kelvin Benjamin, but they should get Jordan Matthews back.

The Chiefs have really struggled as of late after starting the season 5-0. Since then, they have lost four of five and there has been some discussion (in the media) about whether the team should make a quarterback switch. I think the Chiefs get the win here, but I wouldn't be surprised if Taylor and the Bills keep this game close, much closer than the spread suggests.

Jaguars at Cardinals, Under 38.0 (2 units)

The Jaguars have been winning in spite of their quarterback. Meanwhile, they will face their former first-round quarterback on the other side. One of my concerns with the under in this matchup is the potential for defensive touchdowns, but I expect Jacksonville's elite defense to shut down Blaine Gabbert & Co. Larry Fitzgerald has been playing as well as nearly any wide receiver these days, but the Jaguars have allowed only one touchdown to a wide receiver all season and that was DeAndre Hopkins in Week 1. Barring the defense(s) from putting some points on the board, this should be a low-scoring affair that stays below the total.

Jacksonville Jaguars -5.5 over Arizona Cardinals (2 units)

Essentially the Jaguars have followed through on Doug Marrone's plan of taking the ball out of Blake Bortles' hands as no team has thrown the ball on a lower percentage of their plays than the Jaguars (48.90%). Meanwhile, the Cardinals rank second in the league in terms of pass-play percentage (64.42%). As noted above, however, it's difficult to pass on the Jaguars.

Not only do the Jaguars allow a league-low 160.0 passing yards per game, but no team has sacked the quarterback more (40). In fact, only four teams have 30 and two of those (Chargers and Vikings) have played one extra game. This could easily turn out to be a 20-10 type of game so I don't mind doubling down with the Jags-under stack.

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Thursday, November 23, 2017

DFS Round Table: Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 12

Every week of the 2017 NFL season, our contributors will provide their favorite DraftKings play of the week and share their thoughts in our weekly DFS Round Table post.

In some cases, the play is intended for tournaments (i.e., Guaranteed Prize Pools or GPPs); in other cases, it's for cash games (e.g., head-to-heads and 50-50's). Or both.

Who is your favorite DraftKings play for Week 12?

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Kevin Hanson: Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals ($4,400)

I'm going back to well with Mixon this week. Mixon had a season-high 22 touches last week, even if he was less than efficient with those opportunities as the rookie totalled just 49 scrimmage yards. In terms of matchups, going from Denver to Cleveland isn't much better. In fact, you could argue it's worse as only the Eagles (3.07) have held running backs (other positions excluded) to fewer yards per carry than the Browns (3.15). Broncos (3.29) rank third.

What I do like with Mixon, however, is his price and what should be a positive game script. The Bengals are 8-point home favorites and that always bodes well for a featured back. So, I expect Mixon to get north of 18 touches in this game and that's not something that you can typically expect for sub-$4,500 running backs.

Brendan Donahue: Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals ($4,400)

We have been trying to predict the Joe Mixon breakout game for a while now. If it's ever going to happen, this has to be the week. Even though the Browns have been surprisingly good against the run this year, they have been predictably bad as a team and this should be an easy win for the Bengals at home. I expect the Bengals to give Mixon all the work he can handle this week and at just $4,400, you can't find many better bargains out there.

John Trifone: Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver Broncos ($5,700)

There are several WRs I like early in the week. Julio Jones against an atrocious TB secondary for just $7,700, Kenny Stills at $4,800, whose numbers are significantly better with Matt Moore at quarterback rather than Jay Cutler, and Corey Coleman at $4,300 in a tough matchup, but should get plenty of targets, are all on my radar this week. If I had to pick one, though, I’ll go with DT.

He has 29 targets in his last three games, and has finally been scoring touchdowns, doing so in each of those last three games. We saw what the Patriots were able to do against the Oakland “defense” this past weekend. Teams don’t need Tom Brady’s quarterback efficiency to get a big game out of the receiving corps, and I expect big games out of the Denver wideouts this weekend. Thomas provides one of the safest floors out there with plenty of upside for only $5,700.

Sean Beazley: Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons ($7,700)

It’s Week 12 and Julio Jones has one TD on the season. He also has only eclipsed the 100-yard mark twice this year. The matchup vs. the Bucs this week is elite, however, and if there is one receiver who can break a slate, it’s Julio (AB84's not on slate). Jones has disappointed DK owners all year, so I am hoping to get him at depressed ownership. I want him at double the field this week.

Dan Yanotchko: Tyrod Taylor, QB, Buffalo Bills ($5,800)

This week I like the bounce-back play of Tyrod Taylor going up against the Chiefs. After coming in after a surprise benching, Taylor put up 185 yards in a half vs. the Chargers with passing and rushing TDs as well. Taylor was also able to hang 285 yard on the Jets, and has had four passing and three rushing TDs in his last four games. We all know the Bills can’t stop Kareem Hunt, so Taylor will be throwing often against a pass defense that allows 285 yards per game and 16 touchdowns on the year.

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Sunday, November 19, 2017

Week 11 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Hanson)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are my Week 11 NFL picks against the spread:

New England Patriots -7.5 over Oakland Raiders (3 Units)

Not only do the Raiders rank last in the NFL in sacks (tied, 13), they are the only team yet to intercept an opposing quarterback this season. Unfortunately for the Raiders defense, it won't get any easier this week. Next up is the ageless wonder, Tom Brady, who leads the NFL in passing yards (2,807) with 19 touchdowns and only two interceptions.

On the other hand, the Patriots have corrected a defense that had allowed six consecutive 300-yard passers to begin the season. Since then, however, they have allowed no more than 233 passing yards -- Matt Ryan (233, Week 7), Philip Rivers (212, Week 8) and Brock Osweiler (221, Week 10).

Seattle Seahawks -2 over Atlanta Falcons (4 Units)

The Tyron Smith-less Cowboys allowed the Falcons, especially Adrian Clayborn and his six sacks, to get to Dak Prescott on what seemed like every play. Considering the Seahawks offensive line is a concern, that is a risk in picking the Seahawks here. That said, the Falcons have been inconsistent this season. Compared to their historical success at home, the Seahawks (1-3 ATS) haven't been dominant at home this year, but the Falcons have continued their struggles on the road (1-4 ATS) this year. With the spread dropping to two points, this suggests that the Falcons are a better team on a neutral field and I'm not ready to buy that even without Richard Sherman.

Washington Redskins +9 over New Orleans Saints (3 Units)

After losing their first two games of the season, the Saints are as hot as any team in the league as their active seven-game winning streak is equalled by only the Eagles. The Saints offense, especially their running game, has been nearly unstoppable led by the two-headed monster of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. The duo has combined for 208 carries for 1,089 and nine touchdowns. Not to mention the fact that they have a combined 73 catches. I'm not sure that the Saints winning streak will end this week, but I do think that Washington will at least be able to keep this game to single digits so I'll take the points here.

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Week 11 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Beazley)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are Sean Beazley's Week 11 NFL picks against the spread:

Cleveland Browns +7.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars (4 Units)

Cleveland's run defense is pretty decent, and I don't care how good the Jags defense is. I can't pick a Blake Bortles-led team as a 7+-point road favorite. The weather is also supposed to be lousy in this one. I'll take the points here. Jags 16, Browns 12.

Washington Redskins +9 over New Orleans Saints (5 Units)

The Saints haven't faced a quality offense in quite some time -- the Bills, Bucs, Bears and Packers (without Aaron Rodgers). I think Kirk Cousins will have a massive game this week, and I expect this game to go down to the wire. I'm calling the outright upset in a shootout. Redskins 37, Saints 33

Dallas Cowboys +6 over Philadelphia Eagles (4 Units)

The last pick of the week is another underdog. I’m on the side of the Cowboys should have drafted Jalen Ramsey over Ezekiel Elliott, but after the performance last week by the Cowboys, I'm starting to see just how valuable Zeke is to this team. I think with another full week without their star RB, the Cowboys will be able to figure a game plan that can beat the Eagles. The Eagles are hot, but a division rival on the road on a national stage will be too much for this team. Dallas 27, Philly 23.


- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

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Week 11 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Yanotchko)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are Dan Yanotchko's Week 11 NFL picks against the spread:

New York Giants +10 over Kansas City Chiefs (4 Units)

The Giants have been pretty much an embarrassment all this year and after last week's debacle in San Francisco, how could it be worse? This is one of the pick-yourself-up-off-the-mat type of games where you play for pride, and you have to think that the Giants will bring it at home. We all know that the Chiefs defense is very suspect. The Chiefs give up 131.1 yards rushing per game and 4.8 yards per carry. They have also allowed 259 yards per game through the air and 16 passing touchdowns as well. This in one of those games where the Giants will always be in striking distance of the lead. Even if they do not win this game outright, they will certainly be within 10 points.

New England Patriots -7.5 over Oakland Raiders (5 Units)

This game looked quite tantalizing from the beginning of the year based on last year's records, but it looks like the Raiders have slipped quite a bit this year. The Patriots had been looking shoddy on defense, but they have certainly righted the ship lately, as they have not allowed a team over 17 points in their last four games. The Raiders have been really bad on defense, and the last thing that they need is Tom Brady to come and pick them apart. The Raiders have a really bad pass defense, as they have allowed 245 yards passing per game and 14 touchdowns on the year. They really do not pressure the quarterback as they only have 13 sacks, and they have not even had one interception yet this year. Add Mexico City to the list of places that Tom Brady has won, as the Patriots will take care of business vs. the Raiders by two-plus touchdowns.

Atlanta Falcons +2 over Seattle Seahawks (3 Units)

I really don't think that any other team in the league has had worse total news that the Seahawks in the last two weeks, unless you count the Cowboys, but we all knew Ezekiel Elliott was getting suspended anyway. The Seahawks are missing two members of the Leigon of Boom for the year in Richard Sherman (Achilles) and Kam Chancellor (neck). And of course, don't forget that Russell Wilson had a concussion last week. The Falcons are finally starting to get on track for the year, and I just feel that they are a tough matchup for the Seahawks, as they smoked them in the playoffs last year 36-20. The Falcons will be able to put pressure on that weak Seattle line, as they have collected 26 sacks on the year, and they only allow 198 yards passing per game to opposing quarterbacks. Seattle just isn't the home field advantage it was and I will gladly take the points here.


- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

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Saturday, November 18, 2017

Week 11 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

John Trifone had an uncharacteristic week last week as none of his three picks covered, but he's still 18-11 (62.1%) ATS and +20 units season to date. And counting last week, he's now had seven winning weeks compared to just three losing weeks this year.

With that said, here are John Trifone's Week 11 NFL picks against the spread:

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Washington Redskins +9 over New Orleans Saints (3 Units)

The Saints are coming off the most lopsided win of the year, scoring six rushing touchdowns and absolutely embarrassing the Bills in Buffalo. The Redskins, who had been leading Minnesota most of the first half, gave up two touchdowns in the last two minutes of the first half. The Vikings then got the ball to start the third and proceeded to score a touchdown, so the game went from 17-14 Redskins to 35-17 Vikings in about five minutes. I think recency bias for the Saints and against Washington factor into this game. Just two weeks ago, the Redskins went into Seattle and got the outright win as 9.5-point underdogs. They have been a bit inconsistent, but I’ll take Washington getting nine this week.

Dallas Cowboys +5.5 over Philadelphia Eagles (4 Units)

I think Philadelphia is the best team in football, but I like the Cowboys to cover at home this week. Missing Ezekiel Elliott hurts, but he is far less valuable to the team than Dak Prescott is. Alfred Morris only ran the ball 11 times but put up 53 yards, for essentially five yards per carry, and they still lost to Atlanta by 20. There were a lot of reasons, including not being able to stop Adrian Clayborn, who incredibly sacked Dak six times, as to why Dallas lost last week. Many will overrate what Zeke means to them. I expect a close game and one either team could win, but 5.5 is too many points.

Seattle Seahawks -3 over Atlanta Falcons (4 Units)

The Seahawks have quietly been one of the best teams in the league of late. They’ve won five of their last six games, and need another win to keep pace to earn a first-round bye in the playoffs, which is more valuable in Seattle with their infamous 12th man than most places. The Falcons have been less impressive, losing three of their last five, including a 20–17 home loss to the Dolphins. They’re coming off an impressive win over Dallas, but I’m not going to overreact too much to that. They’ve looked significantly less impressive than the team that went to the Super Bowl last year, and as only three-point underdogs in Seattle, Vegas is telling us that these teams are even on a neutral field. I do not think that’s the case, so I see value on the Seahawks here. I’ll give the three.


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Thursday, November 16, 2017

DFS Round Table: Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 11

Every week of the 2017 NFL season, our contributors will provide their favorite DraftKings play of the week and share their thoughts in our weekly DFS Round Table post.

In some cases, the play is intended for tournaments (i.e., Guaranteed Prize Pools or GPPs); in other cases, it's for cash games (e.g., head-to-heads and 50-50's). Or both.

Who is your favorite DraftKings play for Week 11?

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John Trifone: Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs ($8,000)

Hunt's price this week isn’t cheap due to the matchup with the Giants, but I like the value from a leverage standpoint. Everyone knows the Giants are the absolute worst against TEs, and they have given up a touchdown vs. the TE every week this year. Travis Kelce is going to be incredibly highly-owned, even at $7,300. If that’s the case, it’s unlikely they’ll also pay up for Hunt, who is capable of a two-TD, 100-plus yard game. I think Hunt is an excellent tourney option.

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Kevin Hanson: Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals ($4,000)

Posting his second lowest yardage total after Week 1, Mixon had just 10 touches for 40 yards last week. On a positive note, that means that the rookie's salary has now dipped below $4,500 for the first time in his young career. There are 38 running backs priced higher than Mixon, who is my 12th-ranked PPR running back this week. Mixon has double-digit carries in five of his past seven games, three or more catches in six games this year and has now scored in back-to-back weeks. Given his discounted salary, he should easily reach value with upside to generate plenty of profit for those that roster him.

Brendan Donahue: Rex Burkhead, RB, New England Patriots ($3,600)

In his last two games, Burkhead has 15.3 points and 15.3 points on Draftkings. How's that for consistency? His snap count has gone up each game after coming back from injury and last week we even saw him take over most of the every-down work for Mike Gillislee, who was a healthy inactive which shows how the Pats feel about Burkhead moving forward. This week he goes up against the 29th-ranked defense in the league vs. opposing RBs and is way underpriced at only $3,600.

Dan Yanotchko: Mlevin Gordon, RB, Los Angeles Chargers ($7,600)

This week I really like Melvin Gordon at home against the Buffalo Bills, who suddenly have a weak front-seven after the Marcel Dareus trade. Gordon was stymied last week by the best run defense in the league at Jacksonville, but his touches will be massive, and I look for him to have a bounce-back week. The Bills now allow 114 yards rushing per game and 4.2 yards per carry, but an astounding 14 touchdowns on the year to opposing rushers so far. With the chance that Phillip Rivers might miss a start with a concussion, I would say they lean on Gordon even more this week. Remember the Saints cracked them for six rushing TDs last week on the road, and now they have to face one of the best three-down backs in the game. The arrow is definitely pointing down for the Bills run defense.

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Sunday, November 12, 2017

Week 10 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Yanotchko)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are Dan Yanotchko's Week 10 NFL picks against the spread:

Jacksonville Jaguars -5 over Los Angeles Chargers (3 Units)

This is a Jacksonville team that has made great strides in becoming a playoff contender, and the next step is taking care of the teams they should beat at home. The Jaguars have two great matchups that bode well for them this week, as you will have a motivated Leonard Fournette fresh off of team suspension going against a rushing defense that allows 135.1 yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry. Also you have the best pass defense in the league with Jacksonville, who will be able to stifle Philip Rivers, as they only allow 156 yards passing per game, and they lead the league with 35 sacks. This will be another cross country 1 PM start for the Chargers as they played New England two weeks ago and then had the bye.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2 over New York Jets (4 Units)

I think one of the most disappointing teams all year certainly has to be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. From the hype of Hard Knocks, to the expected leap for Jameis Winston, to the outstanding offensive talent they have in Mike Evans, Doug Martin, DeSean Jackson, Cameron Brate, and O.J. Howard, and a respected offensive mind in Dirk Koetter not being able to put it all together. It has certainly been a year of the underdogs, and I love Ryan Fitzpatrick getting the start against his former Jets squad, as there certainly will be a revenge factor in play. The Jets are very weak against the pass, as they allow 234 yards per game and 19 touchdowns on the year, and they really don't get after the quarterback as they only have 18 sacks on the year. I believe that it is time for some Fitzmagic at home, and that Tampa will be eating a W, or at least will be within two points.

Minnesota Vikings -1.5 over Washington Redskins (3 Units)

Washington is certainly a very hard team to figure out, as they trekked all the way to Seattle, and beat them on their home field. The Vikings will come into this game off the bye, and it couldn't have been at a better time to get rest to their star wide receiver Stefon Diggs. The Vikings will need this game to keep the lead in the NFC North, and in order to maintain their lead, it will be done by a stifling defense. The Vikings will be able to shut down a weak Washington run game completely, as they only allow 81.4 yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry. Washington could be missing as many as four starting offensive lineman, and the Vikings have a great pass rush, and pass defense that only allows 201 yards passing per game, only 9 touchdowns on the year, and they have compiled 24 sacks. This will be the case of a well-rested team playing against a team that just got back from a physical game in Seattle, so I look for the Vikings to win this one.


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Week 10 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Hanson)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are my Week 10 NFL picks against the spread:

New England Patriots -7.5 over Denver Broncos (3 Units)

Losers of four games in a row, the Broncos have been outscored by a margin of 124-52 during that stretch. Denver may rank second in total defense (280.8 YPG allowed), but they currently rank 25th in scoring defense (24.8 PPG allowed) this season and struggle (in relative terms) at defending tight ends. The top-five highest receiving yards against Denver this season is Travis Kelce (7/133/1), Jason Witten (10/97/1), Alshon Jeffery (6/84/2), Evan Engram (5/82/1) and Hunter Henry (4/73). In other words, good luck slowing down Rob Gronkowski. Meanwhile, points should be at a premium for Brock Osweiler and the Broncos.

Atlanta Falcons -3.5 over Dallas Cowboys (2 Units)

No Ezekiel Elliott. No Tyron Smith. Dez Bryant at less than 100 percent. While I still expect Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense to move the ball against the Falcons, they are clearly not at their most explosive. Losers of four of five games, the Falcons offense has struggled to put up points as they have been held to fewer than 20 in all four of their losses over the span. Perhaps this is more of a hunch (or some reverse psychology as a Cowboys fan), but I expect the Falcons offense to break out and cover the 3.5-point spread.

Washington Redskins +1.5 over Minnesota Vikings (2 Units)

As John Trifone discussed in his Week 10 NFL picks, the Vikings have had an easier schedule (with their wins) than Washington has had (with their losses). One of my favorite bets in general is small home favorites and I expect Kirk Cousins and the Redskins to get the win outright at home this weekend.

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Saturday, November 11, 2017

Week 10 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Beazley)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are Sean Beazley's Week 10 NFL picks against the spread:

Cincinnati Bengals +4.5 over Tennessee Titans (4 Units)

As I mentioned in my DK pick this week, I think A.J. Green is in a perfect spot this week vs. a Titans defense that struggles against elite WRs. I think Green and the Bengals keep this one close, and the Titans aren't good enough to put away teams. Titans 26, Bengals 23.

Atlanta Falcons -3.5 over Dallas Cowboys (5 Units)

I think the loss of Ezekiel Elliott will really hurt this Dallas team. Teams will be able to concentrate on stopping Dak Prescott now. The Falcons haven't had that eruption spot yet this year. I think a game on national TV vs. “America’s Team” will be just that spot. I'll be pairing my A.J. Green with Julio Jones in many lineups this week as I expect Julio to have a big game as well. Falcons 38, Cowboys 24.

Rams vs. Texans, Under 46.0 (4 Units)

Everyone will be on the Rams offense after a 50 burger vs. the Giants last week. I expect a lower-scoring game in this one, plus I don't think Tom Savage can do anything on offense for Houston. Rams 27, Texans 16.

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Week 10 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

On the season, John Trifone has a 18-8 (69.2%) record against the spread with +31 units. More impressively, he's had a winning week in seven of nine weeks this season.

With that said, here are John's Week 10 NFL picks against the spread:
Washington Redskins +1.5 over Minnesota Vikings (5 Units)

This is one of my favorite games on the slate. The Redskins are better than their record indicates and they certainly could make a playoff run. They still can’t seem to figure out a solid run game, but I think Washington is poised to build off an upset win in Seattle last week.

Minnesota is a solid team, but the four wins they have in a row are against the Browns, Ravens, Packers (without Aaron Rodgers) and Bears. I’m not holding that against them -- you can only play the teams on your schedule -- just pointing out that not all 6-2 records are created equally.

The Redskins have played at Kansas City, at Philly, vs Dallas, and at Seattle in four of their last five games. I like Washington to win this one over the Case Keenum-led Vikings this week.

Cleveland Browns +10.5 over Detroit Lions (3 Units)

This is a little bit of a let-down spot for the Lions, coming off a division win in Green Bay to keep them in the mix to win the division. They have another division game in Chicago the following week, so this one is sandwiched between two division games and against an 0-8 team. I give Cleveland an outside chance at the upset, as nearly a double-digit 'dog, though I don’t expect that, but I do like the Browns with the points.

Denver Broncos +7.5 over New England Patriots (3 Units)

Denver has been atrocious in their last four games, going 0-4 and being outscored 124-52 in those games. I’m sure the public will be heavy on the Patriots, in part because of how bad Denver has looked. I like the way they matchup with the Patriots though. Though this isn’t the same defense that won the Super Bowl, they still rank at or near the top in several categories. They’re playing at home on Sunday night, and I expect a very competitive game. The Patriots are dealing with an injury to Chris Hogan, who is out this week. Give me the home team with the points here.

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Thursday, November 9, 2017

DFS Round Table: Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 10

Every week of the 2017 NFL season, our contributors will provide their favorite DraftKings play of the week and share their thoughts in our weekly DFS Round Table post.

In some cases, the play is intended for tournaments (i.e., Guaranteed Prize Pools or GPPs); in other cases, it's for cash games (e.g., head-to-heads and 50-50's). Or both.

Who is your favorite DraftKings play for Week 10?

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John Trifone: Orleans Darkwa, RB, New York Giants ($4,500)

Taking anyone from the Giants offense right now gives me plenty of pause, but Darkwa does seem to be in a premiere matchup and provides a lot of salary relief at $4,500. The 49ers just got gashed by Adrian Peterson, and have the literal worst rush defense in the league. Darkwa has emerged as the lead back for New York and has been producing pretty well in the past few weeks. Typically, I’d still lean toward a fade purely because of the lack of touchdown equity, but this matchup provides a good amount of it, and I think it’s likely Darkwa actually does find the end zone this week. If he doesn’t, he still should be able to pay off $4,500, or at least not kill you, but if he does score, he may smash value. The 100-yard bonus and 1+ TDs is certainly in his range of outcomes.

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Kevin Hanson: Jordan Howard, RB, Chicago Bears ($6,100)

Volume is king and Howard is a lock for a massive workload in Week 10. Despite playing in the game with this week's lowest total (38.0), Howard should have positive game script working in his favor -- six-point home favorite with rookie Mitchell Trubisky getting his fifth consecutive start. Carrying the ball 80 times in his past three games, Howard has 100-plus rushing yards and 18-plus DK points in two of those three games. He has a minimum of 19 touches in six consecutive games.

Brendan Donahue: Marvin Jones Jr., WR, Detroit Lions ($6,200)

Over the last 4 games, jones has been a model of consistency with at least 6 catches in each game. He also has 3 tds in those 4 games and at least 96 yards in 3 out of 4 them. The Lions have now positioned themselves to make a serious playoff run and will not overlook Cleveland, so I expect the same consistency out of Jones again this week. Sean Beazley: A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals ($7,700)

When I saw what A.J. Green did to Jalen Ramsey last week, I was pretty pumped as I thought for sure he would be suspended for this week when they play Tennessee. (Disclaimer: Titans Fan). Not sure how Mike Evans gets suspended and Green doesn’t, but hey that's the NFL for ya.

If you think what Green did to Ramsey was bad? Just wait until Sunday when he gets a fantastic matchup vs. the Titans, who struggle vs. big-time receivers. Green will be this week's top WR, and my bold prediction is that nobody will come within five points of his total. At $7,700, I will be all over Green this week.

Dan Yanotchko: Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers ($6,600)

I like Ben Roethlisberger getting a great matchup off the bye against the Indianapolis Colts. Roethlisbeger has a great four-week split averaging 276 yards per game with four touchdowns. Add this to a Colts defense that gives up 280 yards per game and 13 touchdowns and no Vontae Davis equals a great buy at $6,600.

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Sunday, November 5, 2017

Week 9 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Beazley)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are Sean Beazley's Week 9 NFL picks against the spread:

Indianapolis Colts +6.5 over Houston Texans (5 Units)

We have seen what this Texans team has been like without a competent QB. Indy should be able to stay close in this one, and I actually think they win out right. The loss of Watson too much. Colts 26, Texans 20.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 over New Orleans Saints (4 Units)

The Saints defense has been night and day better thanks to Rookie CB Marshon Lattimore. He will have a tough battle this week with Mike Evans though. I'll take the points in a tough divisional battle. Saints 28, Bucs 24.

Green Bay Packers +2 over Detroit Lions (5 Units)

I think an extra week to prepare for Brett Hundley will be the difference in this game. He clearly looked like crap in his first start,but I think with the additional prep and a game plan tailored to his skill set will lead the Packers to a win at home. Packers 23, Lions 21.
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Week 9 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Hanson)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are my Week 9 NFL picks against the spread:

Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 over Dallas Cowboys (2 Units)

Once again, the Cowboys will have their suspended running back in the starting lineup. In terms of fantasy football, Ezekiel Elliott is my top-ranked fantasy running back this week. But my concern with the Cowboys isn't their ability to score points. It's their ability to slow down a Chiefs offense that ranks third in yardage (377.9 per game) and scoring (29.5 per game). I'd expect this game's line to be closer to a pick'em so I'll take the points here.

Oakland Raiders -3 over Miami Dolphins (4 Units)

The Dolphins rank last in the NFL in total offense (252.4 yards per game) and just traded away Jay Ajayi to the Eagles. Following their 40-0 loss in prime time, the Dolphins rank last in the NFL in scoring (13.1 PPG) as well. With Derek Carr back, I expect a better performance from Oakland's offense this week. In turn, I think points could be a premium for Jay Cutler and the post-Ajayi Dolphins.

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Week 9 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Yanotchko)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are Dan Yanotchko's Week 9 NFL picks against the spread:
Los Angeles Rams -4.5 over New York Giants (4 Units)

So this is one of those lines that make you scratch your head, as the Rams are certainly a superior team, but why is the spread so close? I know everyone loves to point to the West Coast team playing at 1 PM vibe, but I think the Rams will go into New Jersey and get the win. The Giants have been pretty bad on defense all year, as they allow opposing running backs to gain 120.7 yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry. Also, they have a pretty shabby pass defense as well, as they allow 259 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, and they have given up 14 touchdowns as well. This will be a heavy usage of Todd Gurley day, combined with a patchwork Giants receiving corps, just does not bode well for them on the day.

Seattle Seahawks -7.5 over Washington Redskins (4 Units)

This is a game where if Washington was healthy, I would expect fireworks on offense just like last week Seahawks vs. Texans game. Sadly, Washington is really banged up on the offensive line, and while Seattle does have minimal sacks so far this year, they will be able to capitalize against the Redskins patchwork offensive line. Not only will the line have trouble holding up, I don't expect a big day by Kirk Cousins against the Legion of Boom, as they only allow opposing quarterbacks a 56.5% completion percentage. I think the Seahawks just have too much for Washington, and also will look for Russell Wilson to exploit a passing defense that gives up 217 yards per game. Seattle will get back defensively on track here, and I expect minimal points from Washington.

Arizona Cardinals -2.5 over San Francisco 49ers (5 Units)

I think the biggest splash and cheers will not be during this game at all, but rather pre-game when new 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garapolo is introduced. In probably the worst quarterback duel game of the year, we will get Drew Stanton going against rookie C.J. Bethard, making his second start. Since this is the case, I am looking at Adrian Peterson to have massive usage this game, as the 49ers allow opposing rusthers 131.8 yards per game and nine touchdowns on the year. San Francisco's secondary is not much better, as they give up 250 yards passing per game, so even Drew Stanton should exploit them. The Cardinals need this game to keep the playoff hopes alive, and therefore should win going away.

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Thursday, November 2, 2017

Week 9 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are John Trifone's Week 9 NFL picks against the spread:

New York Jets +3.5 over Buffalo Bills (3 Units)

I like what the Bills are doing and adding Kelvin Benjamin strengthens the receiving corps - clearly the team's biggest weakness. That said, the Jets look very similar to the Bills by several advanced metrics. The biggest discrepancy between the teams is turnover differential -- Buffalo is +14 while the Jets are -1. Assuming this difference isn’t really skill-based, I’ll take the Jets as home dogs in an important division game.

Carolina Panthers +1.5 over Atlanta Falcons (5 Units)

I’ll take another home underdog in an important division game here. Although the Panthers just traded away Kelvin Benjamin, that’s unlikely to impact them too much. Devin Funchess should be able to step into the role, and the Falcons are among the league's worst in defending RBs in the passing game. I like Christian McCaffrey to have a big game and I like Carolina to win this one at home.

Washington Redskins +7 over Seattle Seahawks (3 Units)

The Seattle offense has come alive in recent weeks, and coming off a big win over the Texans in what may have been the best game of the year is going to have a lot of people on Seattle. Washington has had some tough losses but are better than their record indicates. Seattle is a tough place to play, but their defense is significantly worse than it has been in previous years. I like this to be a close game so I’ll take a full touchdown the Redskins are getting.

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DFS Round Table: Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 9

Every week of the 2017 NFL season, our contributors will provide their favorite DraftKings play of the week and share their thoughts in our weekly DFS Round Table post.

In some cases, the play is intended for tournaments (i.e., Guaranteed Prize Pools or GPPs); in other cases, it's for cash games (e.g., head-to-heads and 50-50's). Or both.

Who is your favorite DraftKings play for Week 9?

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Kevin Hanson: Jack Doyle, TE, Indianapolis Colts ($4,300)

One thing is certain: Doyle will be heavily targeted. Coming off a season-best performance (12/121/1 on 14 targets), Doyle now has double-digit targets in two of three games since returning from a concussion. Over that three-game span, he has racked up 25 catches for 215 yards and two scores on 32 targets. In PPR formats, he's a top-three option for me this week yet seven tight ends (excluding Greg Olsen and Jordan Reed) have higher price tags this week.

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John Trifone: Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons ($7,800)

Early in the week, I don’t see a ton of value in DK pricing. A few spots, like Alex Collins at $4,600 is intriguing, but the theoretical high-floor, high-ceiling guy who’s price is under 8K is Julio Jones. Jones hasn’t had a really big game yet and remarkably has only one TD to date. His one pretty big game in Week 7 vs. New England (9-99-1) for 24.7 DK points is his only game over 20 points this year. I’m betting on some TD regression to the mean in the second half of the season, and I like this spot at Carolina as a potential start to that. At minimum, Jones has 30+ point upside for tournaments for $7,800.

Brendan Donahue: Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys ($6,400)

With the news of the Ezekiel Elliot suspension being back on, it has created the perfect storm for Dez to have a breakout game this week. In Week 2 vs. Denver when Dallas went away from the run and only gave Zeke nine carries, Dez was targeted 16 times, catching seven of them for 59 yards and a TD vs. one of the toughest defenses in the league. This week, he gets a defense in KC that has given up the most fantasy points to opposing WRs on the season. In a game where Dallas may lean on the passing game, I expect Dez to be the biggest beneficiary.

Sean Beazley: Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee Titans ($6,000)

This is going to be the Marcus Mariota-wins-someone-a-GPP week. I absolutely love Mariota and the Titans offense this week. Mariota is back to 100 percent. First-round pick Corey Davis is back practicing in full as well. There were so many people who were burned by the Titans vs. Cleveland game two weeks ago so there definitely will be some recency bias. I think Mariota will be sub-5% in GPPs and given a full playbook again, he has the potential to break a slate.

Dan Yanotchko: Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints ($7,600)

Ingram has a great matchup against the Buccaneers, who give up 25.4 FPS in PPR formats. The Saints have been running the ball a lot lately, and his splits certainly show it. In his last four games, he has 79 carries, 85 yards per game and four touchdowns. Throw in 19 receptions as well in his last four, and I will pay the price for him here.

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