Monday, August 31, 2020

12-Team Fantasy Football Mock Draft (Standard Scoring)

The best way to become good at something is to practice. So, what should you do if you want to draft a better fantasy football team?

Practice, of course!

Leading up to the start of the 2020 NFL season, we will use the 2020 Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator (powered by FantasyPros) to complete fantasy football mock drafts.

We will use a variety of scoring formats -- PPR, half-PPR, standard scoring and even 2-QB leagues, league sizes and draft slots. The goal is to give you a good representation of the team that you may be able to construct given your league settings and the rationale of why we made the picks we did.

+ Our mocks will be tracked here: Fantasy Football Mock Drafts.

That said, nothing beats practicing yourself so (check out the simulator) and complete a mock in a matter of minutes.

Without further ado, here are the picks of our 12-team 2020 fantasy football mock draft using standard (i.e., non-PPR) scoring with the 5th pick:

1.05 - Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings

Through three NFL seasons, Cook has played only 29 games but he had his healthiest campaign (14 games) in 2019, which was by far his most productive as well. The centerpiece of a run-first offense, Cook has averaged 4.6 yards per carry and 8.8 yards per reception over his career and only Christian McCaffrey averaged more fantasy points per game (half-PPR) than Cook (19.0) in 2019.

2.08 - Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

With DeSean Jackson departing in free agency, Godwin (more than) delivered on the breakout that was expected of him. Despite missing two games, he shattered previous career highs with 86 catches for 1,333 yards and nine touchdowns to finish as fantasy's WR2.

3.05 - Chris Carson, RB, Seattle Seahawks

Carson (hip) is expected to be ready for Week 1. Playing 15 games last season, Carson handled a career-high 315 touches for 1,496 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns.

4.08 - Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks

While the Seahawks rank near the bottom of the league in pass attempts every year, Lockett is one of the most efficient receivers in the NFL and saw a significant uptick in target share (21.3% in 2019 vs. 16.4% in 2018) with the retirement of Doug Baldwin. Despite playing through injury in the middle of the season, Lockett set career highs in targets (110), receptions (82) and yards (1,057) in 2019. The 5'10" receiver led the NFL in red-zone targets (23) in 2019.

MORE: Fantasy Football 2020: 12 Undervalued Players in Fantasy Drafts

5.05 - Le'Veon Bell, RB, New York Jets

Running behind one of the league's worst offensive lines in 2019, Bell rushed for 52.6 yards per game and averaged 3.2 yards per carry, both of which were career lows. Bell's 311 touches were eighth-most last season, but Bell ranked 35th (4.02) in yards per touch among the 38 running backs that amassed 140-plus touches last season. Improved efficiency should be expected from Bell as the Jets improved their offensive line, but the addition of the ageless Frank Gore casts serious doubt on Bell's ability to come close to last year's volume.

MORE: New York Jets NFL Mock Draft Roundup

6.08 - A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Green has missed at least six games in three of the last four seasons including the entire 2019 season. The obvious risks are Green's durability history as well as the difficulty of establishing chemistry with a rookie quarterback in such an unorthodox offseason, but there is upside from his low-end WR2/high-end WR3 ADP as well. In 2018, Green averaged 5.1/77.1/0.7 per game, equivalent to a full-season pace of 82/1,234/11.

7.05 - Marvin Jones, WR, Detroit Lions

Once again, Jones had his season cut short by injury as he missed three games in 2019 and seven games in 2018. Based on his per-game production when both Jones and Matthew Stafford were healthy, Jones was on pace for an 84/1,070/12 stat line in 2019.

8.08 - Jamison Crowder, WR, New York Jets

Crowder led the Jets in targets (122), receptions (78), yards (833) and touchdowns (six) last season. With Robby Anderson and Demaryius Thomas no longer on the roster, Crowder could be even better in 2020 if Sam Darnold can stay healthy. The slot receiver's ADP has been steadily rising in August.

MORE: Jamison Crowder 2020 Fantasy Football Profile and Outlook

9.05 - Matt Breida, RB, Miami Dolphins

Breida was the odd-man out in San Francisco's backfield down the stretch and he moves to a situation where he has a legitimate shot to lead Miami's backfield in usage and production. The former UDFA has averaged 5.0 yards per carry and 8.4 yards per reception over his first three NFL seasons. While Miami had the league's worst offensive line last year, they made numerous investments -- via the draft and free agency -- to upgrade the unit.

10.08 - Preston Williams, WR, Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins made a number of roster improvements through free agency and the draft, but there were no significant additions in terms of pass-catchers. In fact, the group is worse off with Wilson and Hurns opting out. More talented (four-star high school recruit) than his UDFA status (due to off-field reasons) would imply, Williams made an immediate impact for the Dolphins with 32/428/3 in eight games before tearing his ACL. After observing training camp practices open to reporters, Adam Beasley from the Miami Herald wrote that Williams may be "potentially better than ever."

MORE: Fantasy Football Sleepers: 10 Late-Round Targets

11.05 - Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Football Team

Gibson possesses a superior combination of athleticism (4.39 forty) for his size (228 pounds) and broke tackles at a ridiculous rate (33 on 77 career touches) at Memphis. With Guice released and Peterson now 35 years old, it wouldn't be a shock to see the (early) third-rounder see his rookie role continue to expand throughout the season. Earlier this offseason, Ron Rivera said Gibson has "a skill set like Christian (McCaffrey)."

12.08 - Hayden Hurst, TE, Atlanta Falcons

Hurst doubled his production in 2019 to 30/349/2, but that paled in comparison to (now former) teammate Mark Andrews. Hurst's trade to Atlanta does wonders for his fantasy outlook as Austin Hooper signed a free-agent deal with Cleveland. Before Hooper's mid-season injury, he was fantasy's top-scoring tight end and finished second behind Julio Jones in team targets.

13.05 - Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints

Leading the NFL in completion percentage in each of the past three seasons, Brees posted a career-high 7.1 TD% in 2019 and he has posted a 59-to-nine TD-INT ratio over the past two seasons combined. The team's offseason moves will help Brees, the NFL's all-time leading passer, continue his high level of play into his age-41 season. Not only did the Saints use their first-round pick on the top interior offensive lineman in the draft, but they added Emmanuel Sanders as an upgrade opposite Michael Thomas.

14.08 - Chicago Bears DST

15.05 - Harrison Butker, K, Kansas City Chiefs

16.08 - Chase Claypool, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Claypool provides the Steelers with a physical mismatch due to his size (6'4", 238 pounds) and athleticism (4.42 forty and 40.5" vertical). While he may start out as the team's fourth receiver, it's possible that he pushes James Washington for snaps in three-wide sets. Not only are teammates calling Claypool a "PROBLEM" (in a good way), The Athletic's Mark Kaboly recently wrote that "practice after practice, the rookie is making non-rookie-like plays after running non-rookie-like routes and making non-rookie-like catches."

- View Full Mock Draft Results

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Sunday, August 30, 2020

Non-PPR 12-Team Mock Draft

The best way to become good at something is to practice. So, what should you do if you want to draft a better fantasy football team?

Practice, of course!

Leading up to the start of the 2020 NFL season, we will use the 2020 Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator (powered by FantasyPros) to complete fantasy football mock drafts.

We will use a variety of scoring formats -- PPR, half-PPR, standard scoring and even 2-QB leagues, league sizes and draft slots. The goal is to give you a good representation of the team that you may be able to construct given your league settings and the rationale of why we made the picks we did.

+ Our mocks will be tracked here: Fantasy Football Mock Drafts.

That said, nothing beats practicing yourself so (check out the simulator) and complete a mock in a matter of minutes.

Without further ado, here are the picks of our 12-team 2020 fantasy football mock draft using standard (i.e., non-PPR) scoring with the 8th pick:

1.08 - Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints

Injury forced him to miss a couple of games in the middle of the season and limited his effectiveness down the stretch, but Kamara still finished as fantasy's RB9 on a per-game basis in 2019. One of the league's most talented receivers out of the backfield, Kamara has exactly 81 catches in each of his three seasons, but he averaged a career-high 5.8 receptions per game last year. Kamara, who scored a touchdown per every 15.35 touches in his first two NFL seasons, could be the benefactor of some positive touchdown regression as that number plummeted to one score per every 42 touches in 2019.

2.05 - Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers

Missing four games apiece in his first two seasons, Jones played a full 16-game slate and delivered for fantasy owners as only Christian McCaffrey scored more fantasy points at the position in 2019. While Jamaal Williams remained involved, Jones racked up 1,558 scrimmage yards and scored a whopping 19 total touchdowns. Instead of drafting help for Aaron Rodgers and the passing offense, the Packers invested a high pick (second-rounder) in a 247-pound running back that will likely steal a few (and especially valuable goal-line) carries from Jones.

MORE: Green Bay Packers NFL Mock Draft Roundup

3.08 - Allen Robinson, WR, Chicago Bears

Playing a full 16-game season, Robinson had a career-high 98 receptions for 1,147 yards and seven touchdowns in 2019. With steadier quarterback play, Robinson should post another top-12 fantasy season in 2020.

4.05 - Robert Woods, WR, Los Angeles Rams

Woods scored only three touchdowns -- two receiving and one rushing -- in 2019, but he posted very similar numbers in other categories -- 9.3 targets per game (8.1 in 2018), 6.0 receptions (5.4) and 75.6 yards (76.2) last season. After the team's bye (Week 9), Woods had a minimum of nine targets every week and averaged 11.3 per game to yield 7.4/94.7/0.3 receiving per game. Woods is one of my favorite WR targets in fantasy drafts this year.

MORE: Robert Woods 2020 Fantasy Football Profile and Outlook

5.08 - DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins

It was the unconvential fifth-year breakout for Parker, who shattered previous career highs with 72 catches on 128 targets for 1,202 yards and nine touchdowns. Over the final eight games with UDFA Preston Williams sidelined, Parker was at his best -- 44/802/5 on 76 targets in eight games without Williams; 28/400/4 on 52 targets with him. Given the opt outs of the 2020 NFL season by Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns, the duo of Parker and Williams may see an even larger target share with Wilson and Hurns sitting 2020 out.

MORE: Fantasy Football 2020: 12 Undervalued Players in Fantasy Drafts

6.05 - Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks

Few teams are more commited to the run than the Seahawks, but Wilson has finished as a top-three fantasy quarterback in four of the past six seasons. One of the league's best deep passers, Wilson has thrown more than 30 touchdowns in three consecutive seasons and he's a near lock for 300-plus rushing yards and a couple more scores.

7.08 - J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens

Some viewed Dobbins as the RB1 in this year's draft class. The former Buckeye enters a situation where his long-term success can be maximized, but the presence of Ingram atop the depth chart puts some constraints on Dobbins' short-term (i.e., 2020) outlook. Even so, the workload gap between Ingram and Dobbins should be narrower than it was between Ingram (228 touches in 2019) and the team's RB2 (Gus Edwards, 140) last year and Edwards finished as a top-50 back. Much more of a receiving threat than Edwards, Dobbins could still vastly exceed his current ADP.

8.05 - Jamison Crowder, WR, New York Jets

Crowder led the Jets in targets (122), receptions (78), yards (833) and touchdowns (six) last season. With Robby Anderson and Demaryius Thomas no longer on the roster, Crowder could be even better in 2020 if Sam Darnold can stay healthy. The slot receiver's ADP has been steadily rising in August.

MORE: Jamison Crowder 2020 Fantasy Football Profile and Outlook

9.08 - Matt Breida, RB, Miami Dolphins

Breida was the odd-man out in San Francisco's backfield down the stretch and he moves to a situation where he has a legitimate shot to lead Miami's backfield in usage and production. The former UDFA has averaged 5.0 yards per carry and 8.4 yards per reception over his first three NFL seasons. While Miami had the league's worst offensive line last year, they made numerous investments -- via the draft and free agency -- to upgrade the unit.

10.05 - Preston Williams, WR, Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins made a number of roster improvements through free agency and the draft, but there were no significant additions in terms of pass-catchers. In fact, the group is worse off with Wilson and Hurns opting out. More talented (four-star high school recruit) than his UDFA status (due to off-field reasons) would imply, Williams made an immediate impact for the Dolphins with 32/428/3 in eight games before tearing his ACL. After observing training camp practices open to reporters, Adam Beasley from the Miami Herald wrote that Williams may be "potentially better than ever."

11.08 - Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Football Team

Gibson possesses a superior combination of athleticism (4.39 forty) for his size (228 pounds) and broke tackles at a ridiculous rate (33 on 77 career touches) at Memphis. With Guice released and Peterson now 35 years old, it wouldn't be a shock to see the (early) third-rounder see his rookie role continue to expand throughout the season. Earlier this offseason, Ron Rivera said Gibson has "a skill set like Christian (McCaffrey)."

12.05 - Hayden Hurst, TE, Atlanta Falcons

Hurst doubled his production in 2019 to 30/349/2, but that paled in comparison to (now former) teammate Mark Andrews. Hurst's trade to Atlanta does wonders for his fantasy outlook as Austin Hooper signed a free-agent deal with Cleveland. Before Hooper's mid-season injury, he was fantasy's top-scoring tight end and finished second behind Julio Jones in team targets.

13.08 - Mike Gesicki, TE, Miami Dolphins

Gesicki is athletic freak -- 4.54 forty and 41.5" vertical -- at tight end and he had a breakout second season, aided by additional opportunities with the season-ending injury to UDFA receiver Preston Williams. Gesicki had five-plus targets in all eight games without Williams but only five-plus in just three of eight with him. More big slot than tight end, Gesicki finished his sophomore campaign as fantasy's TE11. Especially considering the team's WR3/WR4 are sitting 2020 out, Gesicki has the potential to take another significant step forward in year three.

MORE: Fantasy Football Sleepers: 10 Late-Round Targets

14.05 - Jamaal Williams, RB, Green Bay Packers

Williams has averaged only 4.67 yards per touch over his three-year career. While he played just 35% of Green Bay's offensive snaps last season, Williams finished as a top-36 fantasy running back (flex range) in 2019.

15.08 - New Orleans Saints DST

16.05 - Robbie Gould, K, San Francisco 49ers

- View Full Mock Draft Results

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Fantasy Football 2020: 12 Undervalued Players in Fantasy Drafts

Regardless of which drafting strategy you prefer, finding undervalued players throughout your draft is important for every fantasy owner.

By comparing our Fantasy Football Rankings to the latest Half-PPR Fantasy Football ADP, we've identified whether each player is undervalued, overvalued or properly valued.

Based on this exercise, our strategy will be to load up on running backs early (a long-standing strategy that is popular for many drafters) and then take advantage of the many values that can be found at wide receiver.

For single-starter positions (QBs and TEs), we continue to prefer to wait.

With that said, here are 12 players that we feel are currently undervalued (half-PPR ADP in parenthesis):

QB - Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP: QB12, 9.05)

Coming off multi-year lows in completion percentage (60.8, six-year low), TD% (3.9, 11-year low) and Y/A (6.6, 18-year low), things are looking up for Brady in terms of his fantasy outlook as he replaces Jameis Winston in Tampa's high-powered offense. While the team should play with more leads and Brady likely won't lead the NFL in pass attempts (like Winston did in 2019), he inherits a supporting cast loaded with talented pass-catchers -- Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard, (an unretired) Rob Gronkowski, etc.

QB - Gardner Minshew II, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: QB21, 14.03)

While the Jags are the early favorites to win the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes, there is little competition for Minshew in 2020. As a rookie, Minshew threw for 3,271 yards, 21 touchdowns and six interceptions. An underrated aspect of his game is his rushing ability as Minshew averaged 5.1 YPC and gained 344 yards on the ground. Only four quarterbacks -- Lamar Jackson (1,206), Kyler Murray (544), Josh Allen (510) and Deshaun Watson (413) -- rushed for more.

MORE: Fantasy Football Sleepers: 10 Late-Round Targets

RB - James White, New England Patriots (ADP: RB36, 7.11)

Perennially undervalued in fantasy drafts, it was White, not Sony Michel, that has led the Patriots running backs in fantasy scoring in both of Michel's first two seasons. One of the league's best pass-catching backs, White has more than 70 catches in back-to-back seasons and that trend should continue in 2020.

RB - Tarik Cohen, Chicago Bears (ADP: RB44, 9.06)

The Human Joystick set career lows in efficiency (3.3 YPC and 5.8 Y/R), but he set career highs in both targets (104) and receptions (79). Given his role in the passing game, Cohen is a much better option in (full) PPR formats as he's finished no worse than RB30 in PPR scoring -- 27th in 2019, 11th in 2018 and 30th in 2017 -- over his three NFL seasons.

RB - Duke Johnson, Houston Texans (RB55, 12.08)

While he's always been efficient on his touches (4.4 career YPC and 9.2 Y/R), Johnson averaged only 7.94 touches per game in his first season with the Texans. On a positive note, James White (315) and Christian McCaffrey (303) are the only two running backs with more receptions than Johnson (279) since he entered the league in 2015. Better in PPR formats, Johnson has finished as a top-30 PPR running back in four of five seasons including 2019 (RB29).

WR - Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams (ADP: WR17, 4.08)

Woods scored only three touchdowns -- two receiving and one rushing -- in 2019, but he posted very similar numbers in other categories -- 9.3 targets per game (8.1 in 2018), 6.0 receptions (5.4) and 75.6 yards (76.2) last season. After the team's bye (Week 9), Woods had a minimum of nine targets every week and averaged 11.3 per game to yield 7.4/94.7/0.3 receiving per game. Woods is one of my favorite WR targets in fantasy drafts this year.

MORE: Robert Woods 2020 Fantasy Football Profile and Outlook

WR - Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks (ADP: WR22, 5.04)

While the Seahawks rank near the bottom of the league in pass attempts every year, Lockett is one of the most efficient receivers in the NFL and saw a significant uptick in target share (21.3% in 2019 vs. 16.4% in 2018) with the retirement of Doug Baldwin. Despite playing through injury in the middle of the season, Lockett set career highs in targets (110), receptions (82) and yards (1,057) in 2019. The 5'10" receiver led the NFL in red-zone targets (23) in 2019.

WR - DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins (ADP: WR28, 6.08)

It was the unconventional fifth-year breakout for Parker, who shattered previous career highs with 72 catches on 128 targets for 1,202 yards and nine touchdowns. Over the final eight games with UDFA Preston Williams sidelined, Parker was at his best -- 44/802/5 on 76 targets in eight games without Williams; 28/400/4 on 52 targets with him. Given the opt outs of the 2020 NFL season by Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns, the duo of Parker and Williams may see an even larger target share with Wilson and Hurns sitting 2020 out.

WR - Jamison Crowder, New York Jets (ADP: WR44, 10.03)

Crowder led the Jets in targets (122), receptions (78), yards (833) and touchdowns (six) last season. With Robby Anderson and Demaryius Thomas no longer on the roster, Crowder could be even better in 2020 if Sam Darnold can stay healthy. The slot receiver's ADP has been steadily rising in August.

MORE: Jamison Crowder 2020 Fantasy Football Profile and Outlook

WR - Preston Williams, Miami Dolphins (ADP: WR51, 11.09)

The Dolphins made a number of roster improvements through free agency and the draft, but there were no significant additions in terms of pass-catchers. In fact, the group is worse off with Wilson and Hurns opting out. More talented (four-star high school recruit) than his UDFA status (due to off-field reasons) would imply, Williams made an immediate impact for the Dolphins with 32/428/3 in eight games before tearing his ACL. After observing training camp practices open to reporters, Adam Beasley from the Miami Herald wrote that Williams may be "potentially better than ever."

TE - Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins (ADP: TE14, 12.05)

Gesicki is athletic freak -- 4.54 forty and 41.5" vertical -- at tight end and he had a breakout second season, aided by additional opportunities with the season-ending injury to UDFA receiver Preston Williams. Gesicki had five-plus targets in all eight games without Williams but only five-plus in just three of eight with him. More big slot than tight end, Gesicki finished his sophomore campaign as fantasy's TE11. Especially considering the team's WR3/WR4 are sitting 2020 out, Gesicki has the potential to take another significant step forward in year three.

TE - Chris Herndon IV, New York Jets (ADP: TE18, 13.11)

Due to injury and suspension, 2019 was a lost season for Herndon. As a rookie in 2018, however, he emerged to become a factor -- sixth-most fantasy points from Weeks 6 to 16. An intriguing upside play for those that punt or stream the position, Herndon has had a "stellar camp, picking up right where he left off after a promising rookie season," per The Athletic's Connor Hughes.

2020 Fantasy Football Rankings:

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Jamison Crowder Fantasy Football Profile and Outlook

New York Jets slot receiver Jamison Crowder started his Jets tenure with a bang.

Targeted by Sam Darnold 17 times in the season opener, Crowder converted those targets into 14 catches for 99 yards.

Throughout the 2019 NFL season, no receiver had more receptions in any game. (Running backs Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler had 15-reception performances last season.)

In addition, only three receivers had more targets in a game in 2019 -- Julio Jones (20), Tyler Lockett (18) and Robert Woods (18) -- than Crowder (17). Several others were tied with Crowder.

MORE: Robert Woods 2020 Fantasy Football Profile and Outlook

Unfortunately for Crowder and the Jets in general, Darnold missed Weeks 2 through 5 (bye included) with mono and returned in Week 6.

On a full-season basis, Crowder led the team in receiving across the board -- targets (122), receptions (78), yards (833) and touchdowns (six). On a per-game basis, Crowder was much more productive when Darnold was under center.

SplitTGT/GRec./GRec. YPGTD/G
With Darnold8.315.3858.310.46
Without Darnold4.672.6725.000.00

Tight end Chris Herndon IV (one of our favorite sleepers) returns after missing virtually all of 2019 due to suspension and/or injury. But there is a lot of turnover and uncertainty within the receiving corps.

Both Robby Anderson (52/779/5) and Demaryius Thomas (36/433/1) are out; Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims are in.

Perriman was impressive down the stretch (three 100-yard games in December) in Tampa and Mims enters the league with an impressive athletic profile. That said, Perriman (knee) and Mims (hamstring) have been dealing with injuries as is Vyncint Smith (the team's WR4 in 2019), who is out five to eight weeks after having core muscle surgery.

To add depth to a banged-up receiving corps, the Jets have recently signed Chris Hogan and Donte Moncrief. The point here is that Crowder should continue to be peppered with targets by Darnold.

A much better option in PPR formats, Crowder finished as the PPR WR26 in 2019 although he was a WR3 (top 36) across scoring formats (WR31 in half-PPR and WR34 in non-PPR).

Regardless of scoring format, Crowder offers fantasy owners plenty of value as a WR3/flex heading into 2020.

Fantasy Football SOS

Based on the cumulative fantasy points allowed in 2019 by their opponents this season, here are the ranks for Jamison Crowder and the Jets receivers rank in 2020 strength of schedule:

Scoring FormatWeek 1-16 RankWeek 14-16 Rank
Non-PPR Fantasy WR SOS29th26th
Half-PPR Fantasy WR SOS28th25th
PPR Fantasy WR SOS28th25th

+ MORE: Game-by-game Fantasy Football SOS for the New York Jets

Jamison Crowder Fantasy Football ADP

Based on scoring format, here are the current Fantasy Football ADPs for Jamison Crowder:

Scoring FormatCurrent ADP
Non-PPR Fantasy ADP13.04 (WR58)
Half-PPR Fantasy Football ADP10.03 (WR44)
PPR Fantasy Football ADP9.05 (WR41)

Below is a chart of Jamison Crowder' half-PPR ADP over the past month:

Jamison  Crowder Average Draft Position

[Source: ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator.]

Jamison Crowder Full-Season Projections

Here are our full-season projections for Crowder:

RECEIVINGRUSHING
Rec.ReYDReTDRushRuYDRuTDFantasy
Points
80.0864.05.201.98.00.02118.52

- New York Jets 2020 Fantasy Football Projections

- More Fantasy Football Projections

Bottom line

Relative value: Undervalued

Drafting Crowder isn't a swing-for-the-fences type of pick but more like a double to the gap. And if you keep hitting doubles throughout your draft, you're going to be in position to win a fantasy title. If both he and Darnold can stay healthy for a full season, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Crowder finish as a top-24 fantasy wide receiver in half-PPR formats based on volume and consistency. Either way, he's currently inside our top-36 fantasy wide receiver rankings (as a WR3) while being drafted as a back-end WR4 in half-PPR formats.

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Updated New York Jets Fantasy Football Projections

In addition to viewing our 2020 Fantasy Football Projections by position, we will post our preseason projections per team.

Below you will find our 2020 fantasy football projections for the New York Jets.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for all 32 NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS


PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDPoints
Sam Darnold503.9319.23653.322.4214.6146.7128.41.87230.65
Joe Douglas made it a priority to improve one of the league's worst offensive lines this offseason, so Darnold should be better-protected in his age-23 season. The team let Robby Anderson walk in free agency, but they get back Chris Herndon, who played only one game, and drafted Denzel Mims, a height-weight-speed (6'3"-207-4.38) prospect.
Joe Flacco32.320.5224.51.110.652.96.40.0613.12
James Morgan2.71.619.20.090.0912.10.011.22

RUNNING BACKS


PlayerAtt.YardsTDRec.YardsTDPoints
Le'Veon Bell204.4848.34.0954.94201.1157.97
Running behind one of the league's worst offensive lines in 2019, Bell rushed for 52.6 yards per game and averaged 3.2 yards per carry, both of which were career lows. Bell's 311 touches were eighth-most last season, but Bell ranked 35th (4.02) in yards per touch among the 38 running backs that amassed 140-plus touches last season. Improved efficiency should be expected from Bell as the Jets improved their offensive line, but the addition of the ageless Frank Gore casts serious doubt on Bell's ability to come close to last year's volume.
Frank Gore85.7329.91.2912.491.80.2551.41
Reunited with Adam Gase, Gore had 168 touches when the two were in Miami in 2018 and Gore has never averaged fewer than 10 touches per game in his career. While you may never feel comfortable having to start Gore in any given week, he's very likely to outperform his draft slot (Frank Gore Fantasy ADP). Of course, his biggest fantasy significance will likely be the frustration he causes Bell owners. The Athletic's Connor Hughes summed it up when he recently wrote: "Bell is a better player than Gore. But Gore looks like a better player for the Jets right now."
La'Mical Perine42.8179.80.6411.584.50.1731.29

MORE: New York Jets 53-man roster projection

WIDE RECEIVERS


PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Jamison Crowder808645.21.980.02118.52
Crowder led the Jets in targets (122), receptions (78), yards (833) and touchdowns (six) last season. With Robby Anderson and Demaryius Thomas no longer on the roster, Crowder could be even better in 2020 if Sam Darnold can stay healthy. The slot receiver's ADP has been steadily rising in August.
Breshad Perriman49.87574.611.97.20.02104.2
While the former first-round pick hasn't lived up to his draft pedigree, Perriman was a productive fantasy asset down the stretch last season. In the month of December, Perriman had 25/506/5 (20.24 Y/R) and closed the season with three consecutive 100-yard games. A potential late-round gem in 2020, Perriman offers plenty of upside if he can build upon that breakout with his new club.
Denzel Mims28.4376.32.1315.50.0151.02
Vyncint Smith10.1133.80.71170.0318.52
Chris Hogan5.469.10.410009.37
Braxton Berrios5.561.60.330008.14
Donte Moncrief337.10.290005.45
Jeff Smith2.125.20.130003.3

TIGHT ENDS


PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Chris Herndon49.1611.34.9100090.59
Due to injury and suspension, 2019 was a lost season for Herndon. As a rookie in 2018, however, he emerged to become a factor -- sixth-most fantasy points from Weeks 6 to 16. An intriguing upside play for those that punt or stream the position, Herndon has had a "stellar camp, picking up right where he left off after a promising rookie season," per The Athletic's Connor Hughes.
Ryan Griffin30.3310.63.0300049.24
Griffin scored a career-high five touchdowns last season and finished with his second-most receptions (34) and yards (320). Barring an injury to Herndon, however, Griffin is off the fantasy radar this season.
Trevon Wesco2.729.30.220004.25
Daniel Brown0.88.10.080001.29

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Half-PPR Fantasy Football Mock Draft (11th Pick)

The best way to become good at something is to practice. So, what should you do if you want to draft a better fantasy football team?

Practice, of course!

Leading up to the start of the 2020 NFL season, we will use the 2020 Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator (powered by FantasyPros) to complete fantasy football mock drafts.

We will use a variety of scoring formats -- PPR, half-PPR, standard scoring and even 2-QB leagues, league sizes and draft slots. The goal is to give you a good representation of the team that you may be able to construct given your league settings and the rationale of why we made the picks we did.

+ Our mocks will be tracked here: Fantasy Football Mock Drafts.

That said, nothing beats practicing yourself so (check out the simulator) and complete a mock in a matter of minutes.

Without further ado, here are the picks of our 12-team 2020 fantasy football mock draft using half-PPR scoring with the 11th pick:

1.11 - Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

One of just three backs with 275-plus touches in each of the past two seasons, Mixon started slowly last year but finished strong -- RB4 over final eight weeks with 177/817/5 (4.62 YPC) rushing and 16/177 (11.06 Y/R) receiving. Both the offense overall and the offensive line should be better in 2020, which should help to carry over his second-half momentum into 2020.

2.02 - Kenyan Drake, RB, Arizona Cardinals

Drake's midseason trade to Arizona erased fantasy owner's frustrations over his usage as most felt that he was under-utilized during his time in Miami. With virtually no time to prepare, Drake rattled off 162 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in his Arizona debut and was one of the most productive backs in the second half of the season. From Week 9 (his debut with the Cardinals) to Week 17, Drake was fantasy's RB4 behind CMC, Derrick Henry and Ezekiel Elliott.

3.11 - Robert Woods, WR, Los Angeles Rams

Woods scored only three touchdowns -- two receiving and one rushing -- in 2019, but he posted very similar numbers in other categories -- 9.3 targets per game (8.1 in 2018), 6.0 receptions (5.4) and 75.6 yards (76.2) last season. After the team's bye (Week 9), Woods had a minimum of nine targets every week and averaged 11.3 per game to yield 7.4/94.7/0.3 receiving per game. Woods is one of my favorite WR targets in fantasy drafts this year.

MORE: Robert Woods 2020 Fantasy Football Profile and Outlook

4.02 - Calvin Ridley, WR, Atlanta Falcons

Ridley posted per-game career highs in targets (7.2), receptions (4.8) and yards (66.6) in 2019, although his season was cut short (Week 14) by an abdominal injury. Through Week 14, Ridley was a top-15 receiver across the board -- WR13 in half-PPR, WR14 in full PPR and WR10 in non-PPR. With a lack of depth behind starters, Ridley is poised for a big season as long as his health cooperates.

5.11 - Darren Waller, TE, Las Vegas Raiders

In his breakout season, Waller finished second amongst tight ends in receptions (90), third in targets (117) and second in yards (1,145). With the team's additions via free agency and the draft, Waller will have much more competition for targets in 2020, but he's still a top-five option at the position.

MORE: Las Vegas Raiders NFL Mock Draft Roundup

6.02 - David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears

Earlier this offseason, GM Ryan Pace talked about Montomgery's ability to "carry a heavier load" if the team runs more often in 2020. While the former Cyclone averaged only 3.7 YPC, he finished his rookie campaign with 242 carries and 25 receptions. Dealing with a groin injury, Montgomery is "expected to be out 2-4 weeks," which puts his availability for the season opener in question.

7.11 - Marvin Jones, WR, Detroit Lions

Once again, Jones had his season cut short by injury as he missed three games in 2019 and seven games in 2018. Based on his per-game production when both Jones and Matthew Stafford were healthy, Jones was on pace for an 84/1,070/12 stat line in 2019.

8.02 - Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots

Extremely consistent since becoming a prominent part of the Patriots offense in 2013, Edelman had 100 catches for 1,117 yards and six touchdowns on 153 targets last season. It was the third time that Edelman has played a full 16-game slate over that span and the veteran slot receiver has a minimum of 150 targets, 98 catches and 1,056 yards in each of those three seasons. With Tom Brady now in Tampa, however, it's likely that Edelman fails to repeat those numbers even if he manages to play all 16 games in his age-34 season.

9.11 - J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens

Some viewed Dobbins as the RB1 in this year's draft class. The former Buckeye enters a situation where his long-term success can be maximized, but the presence of Ingram atop the depth chart puts some constraints on Dobbins' short-term (i.e., 2020) outlook. Even so, the workload gap between Ingram and Dobbins should be narrower than it was between Ingram (228 touches in 2019) and the team's RB2 (Gus Edwards, 140) last year and Edwards finished as a top-50 back. Much more of a receiving threat than Edwards, Dobbins could still vastly exceed his current ADP.

10.02 - Preston Williams, WR, Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins made a number of roster improvements through free agency and the draft, but there were no significant additions in terms of pass-catchers. In fact, the group is worse off with Wilson and Hurns opting out. More talented (four-star high school recruit) than his UDFA status (due to off-field reasons) would imply, Williams made an immediate impact for the Dolphins with 32/428/3 in eight games before tearing his ACL. After observing training camp practices open to reporters, Adam Beasley from the Miami Herald wrote that Williams may be "potentially better than ever."

MORE: Fantasy Football Sleepers: 10 Late-Round Targets

11.11 - Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles have a dynamic one-two punch at tight end with Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert, but their receiving corps was decimated by injuries last season. Wentz became the league's first 4,000-yard passer without a 500-yard (wide) receiver. The front office turbo-charged the receiving corps with the addition of speed and lots of it this offseason.

MORE: Philadelphia Eagles 53-Man Roster Projections

12.02 - Robby Anderson, WR, Carolina Panthers

Anderson leaves New Jersey for Carolina, but the landing spot isn't ideal in terms of his fantasy outlook. The 27-year-old receiver has at least 50/750/5 in each of his past three seasons, but it's unlikely that he finishes with much more than that as he's no higher than third on the pecking order for targets behind D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey.

13.11 - Cam Newton, QB, New England Patriots

While not guaranteed to be the starter when a signed his one-year deal, all signs point to the one-time league MVP winning the competition for the starting gig. As ESPN's Mike Reiss notes, Jarrett Stidham is "fading out of the quarterback picture" and it's been "basically the Cam Newton Show." Playing only two games in 2019, the chip-on-his-shoulder version of Newton offers plenty of upside if he can stay healthy in 2020. In his first eight NFL seasons, Newton performed as a top-four fantasy quarterback five times.

14.02 - New Orleans Saints DST

15.11 - Wil Lutz, K, New Orleans Saints

16.02 - Darrel Williams, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

While the Chiefs will give Edwards-Helaire all he can handle, throwing a late-round dart at the team's No. 2 back makes sense as a way to get some cheap exposure to the high-powered Chiefs offense. Injuries are a huge part of the game, especially at the running back position, but the COVID-19 pandemic will create even more opportunities for backup running backs than usual and we've seen waiver-wire backs thrive in spot duty in this offense. As The Athletic's Nate Taylor notes, it's Williams (CEH's former LSU teammate) -- not DeAndre Washington -- that will be CEH's backup. In such a high-powered offense, he should be targeted late by CEH and non-CEH owners alike late in drafts.

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Saturday, August 29, 2020

Las Vegas Raiders 2020 Fantasy Football Projections

In addition to viewing our 2020 Fantasy Football Projections by position, we will post our preseason projections per team.

Below you will find our 2020 fantasy football projections for the Las Vegas Raiders.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for all 32 NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDPoints
Derek Carr485.8335.2376521.628.533.391.60.5232.24
Finishing as a top-20 fantasy quarterback every year of his career, Carr was fantasy's QB17 in 2019. On the other hand, Carr has finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback only once (2016). So while he's performed better than most likely realize, there has been limited upside as well. That said, the Raiders are giving him every opportunity to succeed by loading up on pass-catchers in the draft and free agency.
Marcus Mariota45.127.1331.51.941.1313.371.80.6729.96

RUNNING BACKS


PlayerAtt.YardsTDRec.YardsTDPoints
Josh Jacobs258.411377.1130.6249.40.61184.96
Jacobs had double-digit carries every week he was active as a rookie and ranked among the top 10 players in touches per game (20.15) in 2019. That said, Jacobs had more than three targets only once last season. While Jacobs has a goal to catch "at least 60 balls, the team re-signed Jalen Richard (36 catches on 43 targets in 2019), drafted the hybrid/ex-receiver Lynn Bowden as a running back and recently signed pass-catching specialist Theo Riddick.
Jalen Richard37.7162.10.5732.2296.20.6453.09
Richard doesn't have much stand-alone value outside of deep PPR leagues. In fact, his biggest fantasy impact could be the dent he puts into Josh Jacob's fantasy value as the second-year back has set a goal for himself of 60 catches, but we have Richard projected for more catches than Jacobs.
Lynn Bowden Jr.51211.71.0210840.438.09
Devontae Booker28.8118.10.583.831.50.0618.8
Theo Riddick4.415.80.099.270.40.4611.92
Alec Ingold8.918.70.274.5320.147.53

MORE: Las Vegas Raiders 53-man roster projection

WIDE RECEIVERS


PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Henry Ruggs III50.7717.45.836.741.50.13111.65
A surprise to some as the first receiver off the board in the draft, it was not a surprise to any that Ruggs ran the fastest 40-yard dash (4.27) at the combine in February. With game-breaking speed, Ruggs scored on one of every four times he touched the ball in college.
Hunter Renfrow44.85043.1400069.24
After returning from a late-season injury, Renfrow closed his rookie campaign with a bang. The slot receiver had a 6/102/1 line (or better) in each of his final two games to finish the year with 49/605/4 on 71 targets over 13 games. A step forward in volume is unlikely for the Clemson product given the draft capital that Mike Mayock used to improve the team's receiving corps this offseason.
Bryan Edwards35.4447.83.0100062.84
When describing Edwards, Derek Carr compared him to his former Fresno State teammate Davante Adams. "Bryan is a very violent route runner and that's a good thing. He's very violent, he's very aggressive in his cuts, he reminds me -- when the ball is in the air -- of Davante, great ball skills." Definitely a player to target in dynasty drafts, Edwards may outperform the expectations most have for his rookie season as well.
Tyrell Williams30.4451.42.7400061.58
Williams began the season with a touchdown in his first five games, but he reached the 50-yard mark in only four of 14 games in his first season with the Raiders. Williams will play through a torn labrum in his shoulder, but it's likely that his four-year streak of 650-yard seasons ends in 2020.
Nelson Agholor9.497.30.561.150.0113.65
Zay Jones1.412.90.110001.95

TIGHT ENDS


PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Darren Waller67.88173.39000102.04
In his breakout season, Waller finished second amongst tight ends in receptions (90), third in targets (117) and second in yards (1,145). With the team's additions via free agency and the draft, Waller will have much more competition for targets in 2020, but he's still a top-five option at the position.
Foster Moreau15.5136.41.5500022.94
With the addition of Jason Witten and a number of rookie receivers, Moreau's numbers my actual decline from his rookie season (21/174/5).
Jason Witten16.3134.50.8200018.37
A shell of his former self in terms of fantasy production, Witten still managed to post a top-12 season in his first year out of retirement. That said, his 8.4 Y/R and 6.4 Y/T were the lowest of his career and his non-rookie lows of 83 targets and 63 receptions are about to plummet as well.
Derek Carrier1.815.80.170002.6

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Mock Draft Roundup, 2.0

Throughout the year and leading up to the 2021 NFL draft, we will update our Tampa Bay Buccaneers Mock Draft Roundup showing picks for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from several prominent sites and draft analysts.

The following are picks in recent mock drafts for the Bucs:

Rotoworld - Thor Nystrom (8/21)

28. Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson

If Ronald Jones takes a developmental leap or Ke'Shawn Vaughn proves to have starting chops, Tampa will look another direction. But if that duo underwhelms in 2020, taking a high-end running back prospect like Etienne or Chuba Hubbard at the end of Round 1 would make a ton of sense for the Bucs, who may enter 2021 with only one year left of the Tom Brady contention window.

PFF - Mike Renner (8/19)

28. Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson

Someone had to take a running back! Etienne may not be your prototypical between-the-tackles back, but he is precisely what you want in space. He broke the single-season record for broken tackles per attempt last year, with 91 broken tackles on 207 attempts.

The Draft Network - Kyle Crabbs (8/19)

31. Quincy Roche, EDGE, Miami (FL)

The Buccaneers are projected to own somewhere around $20M in 2021 salary cap space entering next offseason with the cap reduction to $175M due to the COVID-19 pandemic. But that figure comes with Shaq Barrett, Lavonte David, Rob Gronkowski, Ndamukong Suh, and Chris Godwin all not under contract. This could get ugly and the Bucs are going to have to make some tough choices. If Barrett explodes yet again as a pass-rusher, he may be the top name to be replaced, as top EDGE contracts can get rather pricey. Roche is explosive and sudden and will benefit from transferring from Temple to Miami to level up his frame before the 2021 draft.

Pro Football Network - Oliver Hodgkinson (8/16)

26. Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson

Shaquil Barrett, Lavonte David, and Ndamukong Suh are all due a payday next year, and with wide receiver Chris Godwin also out of contract, it seems impossible that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers keep them all. Edge rusher and wide receiver are two big needs but don't rule out the Bucs striking for a running back early in the 2021 NFL Draft, with Ronald Jones playing for his career this coming season.

When Trevor Lawrence appeared to have a minor sophomore slump early in 2019, running back Travis Etienne was the man that Clemson leaned on. Power and speed are the keys to Etienne's success, and he also has the pass-catching ability, which is becoming increasingly necessary to succeed in the NFL. Expect Etienne to pay one of the first running backs off the board in April.

ESPN - Todd McShay (8/12)

25. Jay Tufele, IDL, USC

I liked what Tampa Bay did this past April, crossing off needs at offensive tackle (Tristan Wirfs), safety (Antoine Winfield Jr.) and running back (Ke'Shawn Vaughn). Now, with Ndamukong Suh coming off the books, the Bucs could use some more beef up the middle with Vita Vea. Tufele not only provides value as a run-stopper but also as an effective pass-rusher from the interior. He's big, quick and very strong at the point of attack. Linebacker/edge would also potentially be in the cards here if there were value, and if Vaughn doesn't show pop in Year 1 alongside Ronald Jones II, someone like Oklahoma State running back Chuba Hubbard could even be discussed.

The Draft Network - Jordan Reid (8/10)

28. Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson

What a difference an offseason makes in Tampa Bay. With the greatest quarterback of all-time now under center and highly motivated to prove many wrong, the Bucs enter a Super Bowl or bust window over the next two seasons. With an offense loaded across the board, the one position that has an interesting mix of players is in the backfield. With Ronald Jones struggling to catch on as a receiving threat, the team drafted Ke'Shawn Vaughn in the third-round and signed what's left of LeSean McCoy.

As the back-to-back ACC Player of the Year, Etienne is lightning in a bottle. Often mistaken for simply being a speed demon, he made significant strides during his junior season as he showed much more catch consistency out of the backfield. His vision, explosiveness, and being able to finish runs with touchdowns frequently help make him a fit in Tampa.

Pro Football Network - Matthew Valdovinos (8/9)

26. Abraham Lucas, OT, Washington State

Yes, back-to-back offensive tackle selections is a tad boring. But Donovan Smith will only have one more year on his deal after the 2020 season, and Lucas is one of my favorite tackle prospects in the class. Similar to Tristan Wirfs, Lucas is an elite athlete. His pass protection ability rivals that of Sewell, and for a coach like Bruce Arians, pass protection is vital. Lucas was made for Bruce Arians' offensive attack.

The Draft Network - Joe Marino (8/3)

28. Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson

Tampa Bay has plenty of quantity at running back, but little in the way of actual quality. In an effort to maximize its opportunity to compete for a Super Bowl with Tom Brady and Bruce Arians, the Buccaneers should be searching for X-factors, which is exactly what Etienne can be for the Tampa Bay offense.

Etienne has rare acceleration and developed wonderfully as a pass-catcher in 2019 at Clemson. His explosive, big-play potential would create yet another layer in an already difficult-to-defend offense in Tampa.

Previous update: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Mock Draft Roundup 1.0

MORE TEAMS: All NFL Team Mock Draft Roundups

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