Sunday, December 10, 2017

Week 14 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Hanson)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are my Week 14 NFL picks against the spread:

Carolina Panthers +3 over Minnesota Vikings (3 units)

Ending a four-game winning streak with a tough loss to their division-rival Saints last week, it won't get much easier this week for Cam Newton and the Panthers against the Vikings. As the Vikings look to extend their eight-game winning streak, they haven't lost since Oct. 1st. This should be a closely-fought battle and the Panthers will need to protect Cam better than they did last year (eight sacks), but one of my favorite bets is a small home 'dog so I'll take the Panthers and the points at home.

Denver Broncos +1.5 over New York Jets (3 units)

Speaking of small home 'dogs, I'm going to take the disappointing Broncos as well. Going into the season, some speculated that the Jets could go winless. Before the season began, nobody could have imagined that the Jets would be road favorites in Denver in December. Things are so bad for the Broncos that the Jets haven't been great -- losers of five of their past seven games -- and they're still favored. That said, this is a hunch that the Broncos offense puts up a few points -- enough to pull off the upset.

Indianapolis Colts +3 over Buffalo Bills (2 units)

The good news is that Nathan Peterson should play better than he did in his other start. Of course, he was benched after throwing five first-half interceptions in that one. After a 5-2 start to the season, the Bills have now lost four of five. The Colts haven't been much better as they have lost six of seven, but they have kept most of their games close recently. Not counting last week's 20-point loss, their previous four games included a win and three losses by a combined margin of eight points. I'll take the Colts and the points here.

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Week 14 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Beazley)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are Sean Beazley's Week 14 NFL picks against the spread:

Denver Broncos +1.5 over New York Jets (5 units)

I know it seems like the Broncos have giving up on the season, but this is a game they should absolutely win. I love the Broncos offense in this one in a sneaky spot. Broncos 31, Jets 23.

Seattle Seahawks +2.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars (4 units)

The Jags defense has been elite this year, no doubt, but if you look at the list of QBs they have shut down, it’s not exactly an All-Pro list. I will take Russell Wilson with points any day. I believe the Seahawks win this one out right. Seahawks 27, Jaguars 20.


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Saturday, December 9, 2017

Week 14 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Yanotchko)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are Dan Yanotchko's Week 14 NFL picks against the spread:

Dallas Cowboys -3.5 over New York Giants (4 units)

So, the Giants circus has come full circle. They have fired both head coach Ben McAdoo and GM Jerry Reese and have promoted D coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to the interim head coach position. Eli Manning has been named the starter, but the bad news is that the defense still stinks.

The Giants allow opposing quarterbacks to throw for 260 yards per game and have surrendered 23 touchdowns as well. They are not that much better on the ground. Not only have they allowed 4.3 yards per carry, but they given up a league-worst 130.7 rushing yards per game.

This should be another huge Alfred Morris day as the Cowboys can keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Even at home with Eli given back the starting job, it won't be enough for the Giants here.

Green Bay Packers -3 over Cleveland Browns (4 units)

In yet another front-office circus, the Browns have replaced GM Sashi Brown with John Dorsey to make all of those draft picks they have accumulated. Not only do the Packers have a faint whiff of playoff hopes, but they just may get Aaron Rodgers back next week as well.

The Browns don't have bad numbers on defense (total defense) compared to scoring defense as DeShone Kizer has been a turnover machine. The Browns have allowed 230 passing yards per game, a 67.7% completion percentage, and 23 passing touchdowns on the year. Also, they have given up nine rushing touchdowns as well. So, 32 touchdowns in 13 weeks is simply not good.

I know the Packers are banged up on offense, but they still have some good weapons with Davante Adams and Jamaal Williams, and I just don't think Cleveland will win a game all year.

Baltimore Ravens +4.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers (3 units)

Pretty brutal schedule for the Steelers, as they had a physical rival in the Bengals on Monday night, their ultimate rival in the Ravens this weekend, and then the Patriots are coming to town following this weekend. The Ravens haven't really done much well on offense all year, but that is ok as their defense has been carrying them the whole way.

The Ravens will have the tools to be able to slow down the Pittsburgh passing attack, as they only allow opposing quarterbacks to throw for 59.1%, and only a measly 199 yards per game. The Ravens have also had great success against the Steelers as of late, as they have gone 4-1-1 in their last six against the spread. This is a game that the Steelers will be looking past, as they have certainly circled the Patriots on the calendar. I just like the 4.5 points in a game that is always close and hard-fought between these two clubs.

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Week 14 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are John Trifone's Week 14 NFL picks against the spread:

Chicago Bears +6.5 over Cincinnati Bengals (3 Units)

The Bears defense has actually been decent this year, and the Bengals have been one of the more disappointing teams this season. Coming off a tough loss to the Steelers, I don’t see Cincinnati getting up for this game. Chicago should be able to keep this one closer than the 6.5 line.

Kansas City Chiefs -4 over Oakland Raiders (5 Units)

With the way Kansas City has fallen off after a hot start to the season, I'm a little uncomfortable with how much I love the Chiefs in this spot. Maybe it’s because of how much I’ve seen of Oakland this year, who didn’t deserve the win last week over the Geno Smith-led 2-10 Giants at home. How the Raiders are 6-6 is beyond me, but there’s no doubt in my mind they are significantly worse than Kansas City. Even with the division rivalry, I will be surprised if the Chiefs don’t dominate this game from start to finish. Proceed at your own risk, but this is my favorite line on the board.

Carolina Panthers +3 over Minnesota Vikings (3 Units)

Minnesota has been consistently great this year, while the Panthers have been a little more up and down even though they’re 8-4. The Vikings are coming off a huge win at Atlanta this past week, but it’s tough to keep beating good teams on the road. I’m not as confident that the Panthers win outright, but I do feel good with the points. This could be a 21-20 game. I’ll take Cam Newton to cover in Carolina here.


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Thursday, December 7, 2017

DFS Round Table: Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 14

Every week of the 2017 NFL season, our contributors will provide their favorite DraftKings play of the week and share their thoughts in our weekly DFS Round Table post.

In some cases, the play is intended for tournaments (i.e., Guaranteed Prize Pools or GPPs); in other cases, it's for cash games (e.g., head-to-heads and 50-50's). Or both.

Who is your favorite DraftKings play for Week 14?

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Kevin Hanson: Giovani Bernard, RB, Cincinnati Bengals ($3,100)

This one is contingent on the health of Joe Mixon, who sustained a concussion on Monday night. If Mixon isn't cleared on a short week, the Bengals, who had placed Jeremy Hill on IR earlier this season, will rely almost exclusively on Bernard out of the backfield. Bernard had a season-high 15 touches and 96 yards from scrimmage last week. At a bargain salary of just $3,100, Gio provides plenty of salary-cap relief and flexibility for the rest of your lineup.

John Trifone: Josh Gordon, WR, Cleveland Browns ($5,500)

Gordon will certainly be popular this week after getting 11 targets in his first week back. Casey Hayward called him his toughest cover all year. This week, Gordon will get the weak secondary of Green Bay, and for just $5,500, he should exceed value with a chance to crush it.

Brendan Donahue: Mike Davis, RB, Seattle Seahawks ($3,700)

I'm going to continue my recent theme of finding featured backs that are cheaper than $5,000. It's worked really well lately as evidence by Joe Mixon's 28.5 points two weeks ago and Jamaal Williams' 23.3 points last week. This week, we get an even cheaper opportunity with Mike Davis at only $3,700. He got 16 carries in his first game back from injury last week and played 73% of the snaps, proving that he is without a doubt going to be the featured back this week. Granted, they are going up against Jacksonville, but while their defense overall has been very good, they've still allowed the 17th-most points to opposing RBs on the season so Davis is still too good of a value to pass up.

Dan Yanotchko: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals ($6,500)

This week I am going with the ageless target machine Larry Fitzgerald with a great matchup against Tennessee. Fitz has a four-game split of 42 targets, 32 catches, 78.5 yards per game and two touchdowns. That includes a 12-yard game against Jacksonville. The Titans allow 242 yards passing per game, and 22 touchdowns so far, so the Blaine Gabbert-Fitz stack is in play.

Sean Beazley: Trevor Siemien, Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, QB/WR/WR, Denver Broncos ($4,700/$5,000/$4,700)

I was all over Denver this past week and they burned me. I am not going to let that detour me from going back to them this week at home vs. the Jets. I’m going to go heavy with a double stack of Siemien/Sanders/DT. This stack cost less than $15,000 and will allow me to pretty much do whatever I want with the rest of my lineup. I think this stack will go under-owned considering how poor Denver was last week.

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Saturday, December 2, 2017

Week 13 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are John Trifone's Week 13 NFL picks against the spread:

San Francisco 49ers +3 over Chicago Bears (3 units)

I’ll buy into the Jimmy Garappolo hype and take the points here. The Bears offense isn’t very good and I like the quarterback change to give San Francisco a spark.

Denver Broncos -2 over Miami Dolphins (4 units)

Jay Cutler is actually a downgrade from Matt Moore in my opinion and Trevor Semien is back as the Broncos starter. From what we’ve seen of their quarterback situation, he gives the Broncos the best chance to win. I like Denver to end their losing streak at Miami.

New York Giants +9 over Oakland Raiders (4 units)

The way the Giants offense has played, going to Geno Smith over Eli Manning won’t make a huge difference. Oakland should not be favored by nine over anyone in the league with that atrocious secondary. I’ll take the points.
- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

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Week 13 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Hanson)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are my Week 13 NFL picks against the spread:

Seattle Seahawks +5 over Philadelphia Eagles (3 units)

The only 10-win team so far this season, the Eagles go into Seattle as road favorites on Sunday Night Football. The Seahawks have injuries on the defensive side, especially in the secondary, and Carson Wentz is having an MVP-caliber season as a sophomore. Even so, it's tough to go into Century Link Field and leave with a win. So, I'll take Russell Wilson, the Seahawks and points.

Patriots vs. Bills, Over 48.5 (3 units)

Before bouncing back to beat the Chiefs on the road, the Bills had surrendered more than 100 total points in back-to-back games against the Saints and Chargers. So, it wouldn't be surprising if Tom Brady and the Patriots single-handedly went over the 48.5 total this week. Well, I don't expect them to do that, but I think there is a good chance that they put up 30-plus points and do their part. Even though the Patriots have turned their defense around, these two teams have averaged 53.45 combined points per game over their past 11 matchups.

- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

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Week 13 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Yanotchko)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are Dan Yanotchko's Week 13 NFL picks against the spread:

New England Patriots -9 over Buffalo Bills (4 units)

Pretty much one of the things that you can count on during the season is the Patriots domination of the Buffalo Bills. New England has gone 9-1 in the last five seasons against the Bills, and they are also an amazing 11-2 against the number in their last 13. The Bills looked like a playoff contender earlier this year, but after a mistimed quarterback replacement, and the trade of Marcel Dareus has them falling back to earth. The Bills are starting to give up massive chunks of yardage on the ground, as they allow 114 yards per game rushing, 4.1 yards per carry and a league-leading 16 touchdowns to opposing rushers. I'll take Tom Brady giving less than 10 on the road, as you know they are looking to cement the AFC East title and punch their playoff ticket.

Carolina Panthers +5.5 over New Orleans Saints (3 units)

This game is most likely the best game we will have all weekend, so I feel that this game will go down right to the last possession. Yes, the Saints beat the Panthers earlier this year on the road, and they are definitely a better team when they are playing in the Superdome, but Carolina matches up quite well with the Saints. The Panthers have the second best rush defense in the league, as they only allow 83.2 yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry, which is good enough to slow down that two-headed monster of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. Also, the Panthers have a great pass defense that can get after Drew Brees with 32 sacks and they only allow 205 yards passing per game. I feel the Saints should win this one at home, but the 5.5 is just too good to give up in the year of the underdog.

Seattle Seahawks +5 over Philadelphia Eagles (3 units)

Ok, so this game just might be better than the previously mentioned one in Carolina vs. New Orleans, as it will be an interesting test to see how good the Eagles really are. First off they are playing at Seattle in primetime, and say what you want about Seahawks fans, but they certainly bring the noise better than almost any team in the league. The Eagles do have the best rushing defense in the league, but we all know that it is Russell Wilson that really makes the Seahawks go, and just remember he almost pulled that Falcons game out a few weeks ago. The Eagles can be had through the air, as they allow 227 yards passing per game. I have a feeling that Philly will stumble here, as going all the way across the country in primetime as five-point favorites is just a little too much. When in doubt, take the points.
- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

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Week 13 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Beazley)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are Sean Beazley's Week 13 NFL picks against the spread:

Seattle Seahawks +5 over Philadelphia Eagles (5 units)

This very well could be a sneak preview of the NFC Championship Game. While I do think the Eagles are a better team than the Seahawks, winning on the road in Seattle is a very tough thing to do. I’m going to take Russell Wilson and the points here in a game I expect to be a shootout. Seattle 34, Philly 30.

Jacksonville Jaguars -9.5 over Indianapolis Colts (4 units)

If you told me at the beginning of the year I would be betting the Jags as a double-digit favorite, I probably would have laughed at you. This defense dominated Indy in their previous matchup, and there is no reason to believe it won’t happen again. I also think a healthy Leonard Fournette is going to absolutely eat this Sunday. Jaguars 26, Colts 6.

Cincinnati Bengals +5 over Pittsburgh Steelers (4 units)

This is a must-win for the Bengals if they want any chance to make the playoffs. We all know about the Steelers poor play away from home this season, and I think they will struggle in this one. I like the Bengals to win in a closely-fought game. Bengals 23, Steelers 20.
- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

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