Saturday, October 2, 2021

Week 4 Fantasy Football QB Start'em, Sit'em

The decision on which player to start, or sit, largely comes down to the options on your roster (and/or possibly the players available on your league's waiver wire).

As an example, Jalen Hurts is listed below as a "start" for Week 4. And I'd certainly be comfortable going into Week 4 with him as my starting quarterback.

Then again, Hurts may be a "sit" for your team.

In other words, if you roster both Patrick Mahomes and Hurts, you should start Mahomes and, in turn, bench Hurts.

For a more direct answer on whether we would start Player X over Player Y, check our Week 4 Fantasy Football Rankings. Instead of making those direct comparisons, the goal here is to highlight players that we like, or dislike, for the week.

Week 4 Fantasy Football QB Start'em

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. KC)

Through three weeks, here are Hurts weekly QB finishes: QB6, QB10 and QB9, respectively. On the season, only Kyler Murray, Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes have scored more fantasy points than Hurts.

Touchdown underdogs to Mahomes and the Chiefs, Hurts should have another QB1-level performance. The Chiefs have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season and Hurts could find himself in catch-up mode leading to more pass attempts and more scrambles/runs.

His rushing floor is as high as any quarterback not named Lamar. Hurts has a minimum of seven rush attempts every week this season. In fact, he has a minimum of seven rush attempts in all seven of his career starts. In those seven starts, he has rushed for 451 yards and four touchdowns, equivalent to 9.87 fantasy points from his rushing stats alone during that span.

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. LV)

Scoring the second-most QB fantasy points in Week 3, Herbert completed 26-of-38 for 281 yards and four touchdowns against the Kansas City Chiefs. While he had modest fantasy performances in the first two weeks of the season, Herbert is one of eight quarterbacks that have thrown for either 300-plus yards and/or multiple touchdowns in all three games this season. In fact, Herbert has accomplished that feat in 16 of his first 18 NFL games going back to last year's rookie campaign.

The Chargers have a top-five implied total this week as the favorite in a game with a 52.5 over-under. The Raiders have allowed the third-lowest TD% (1.68%) and only 6.26 Y/A to opposing quarterbacks this season, but they haven't faced any elite pass offenses either.

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (vs. ARI)

While Stafford has lost six yards rushing this season, he's been extremely efficient as a passer. Through his first three weeks as a Ram, Stafford has thrown for 942 yards, nine touchdowns and only one interception. Along with Russell Wilson, he's one of two quarterbacks to average at least 10.0 Y/A so far this season and only Tom Brady (10) has thrown more touchdowns in 2021.

In an expected shootout against Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals, the Rams have a top-three implied total on the week in a game projected to have one of the highest totals.

Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders (at LAC)

If you had told others before the season started that Carr would lead the NFL in passing through three weeks, most would have thought you were crazy. That said, Carr has thrown for 1,203 yards (401.0/G) so far this season despite facing tough defenses. In fact, he has thrown no less than 373 yards and has finished as fantasy's weekly QB9, QB8 and QB11, respectively.

Week 4 Fantasy Football QB Sit'em

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (at GB)

Roethlisberger isn't necessarily someone that anyone would consider starting in a single-QB league, but you could easily make the case that he should be benched in 2-QB leagues as well. Through the first three weeks of the season, Big Ben has yet to throw more than one touchdown in a game and has as many interceptions (three) on the season as touchdowns. Throwing 58 pass attempts last week, Roethlisberger had his best fantasy performance of the season (15.22 points, QB23).

Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints (vs. NYG)

Winston was hyper-efficient in Week 1 when he threw five touchdowns on only 20 pass attempts. The low pass volume made plenty of sense given their 38-3 drubbing of the Green Bay Packers. A different game script would lead to more pass attempts, right? Technically yes, but not by much. In Weeks 2 (a 19-point loss) and 3 (a 15-point win), Winston threw 22 and 21 times, respectively. He's yet to throw for more than 148 yards this season.

Given that the Saints are favored by a touchdown in a game with a 42.0-point total (second lowest of the week), it could be another ho-hum performance from New Orleans' passing offense.

Daniel Jones, New York Giants (at NO)

Even after a disappointing Week 3, Jones entered Week 4 as a top-10 fantasy quarterback on the year. As noted above, his matchup against the Saints has one of the week's lowest totals and the Giants have the week's second-lowest implied total. Only the Houston Texans are projected to score fewer points this week. In addition, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton have both been ruled out for this week's matchup.

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (vs. WAS)

Washington has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, but I'm not sure that I would trust Ryan and this offense to take advantage of WFT's early-season generosity. In addition, those numbers are heavily influenced by some difficult matchups as Josh Allen accounted for five touchdownns and 37 fantasy points last week. Ryan's lack of rushing requires prolific passing numbers to become a viable streamer, but he has yet to finish a week as a top-15 performer.

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