Saturday, November 18, 2017

Week 11 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

John Trifone had an uncharacteristic week last week as none of his three picks covered, but he's still 18-11 (62.1%) ATS and +20 units season to date. And counting last week, he's now had seven winning weeks compared to just three losing weeks this year.

With that said, here are John Trifone's Week 11 NFL picks against the spread:

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Washington Redskins +9 over New Orleans Saints (3 Units)

The Saints are coming off the most lopsided win of the year, scoring six rushing touchdowns and absolutely embarrassing the Bills in Buffalo. The Redskins, who had been leading Minnesota most of the first half, gave up two touchdowns in the last two minutes of the first half. The Vikings then got the ball to start the third and proceeded to score a touchdown, so the game went from 17-14 Redskins to 35-17 Vikings in about five minutes. I think recency bias for the Saints and against Washington factor into this game. Just two weeks ago, the Redskins went into Seattle and got the outright win as 9.5-point underdogs. They have been a bit inconsistent, but I’ll take Washington getting nine this week.

Dallas Cowboys +5.5 over Philadelphia Eagles (4 Units)

I think Philadelphia is the best team in football, but I like the Cowboys to cover at home this week. Missing Ezekiel Elliott hurts, but he is far less valuable to the team than Dak Prescott is. Alfred Morris only ran the ball 11 times but put up 53 yards, for essentially five yards per carry, and they still lost to Atlanta by 20. There were a lot of reasons, including not being able to stop Adrian Clayborn, who incredibly sacked Dak six times, as to why Dallas lost last week. Many will overrate what Zeke means to them. I expect a close game and one either team could win, but 5.5 is too many points.

Seattle Seahawks -3 over Atlanta Falcons (4 Units)

The Seahawks have quietly been one of the best teams in the league of late. They’ve won five of their last six games, and need another win to keep pace to earn a first-round bye in the playoffs, which is more valuable in Seattle with their infamous 12th man than most places. The Falcons have been less impressive, losing three of their last five, including a 20–17 home loss to the Dolphins. They’re coming off an impressive win over Dallas, but I’m not going to overreact too much to that. They’ve looked significantly less impressive than the team that went to the Super Bowl last year, and as only three-point underdogs in Seattle, Vegas is telling us that these teams are even on a neutral field. I do not think that’s the case, so I see value on the Seahawks here. I’ll give the three.

- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

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