Friday, August 25, 2023

2023 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings

FantasyPros tracks the accuracy of fantasy football rankings and Hanson's rankings have finished:
  • 2022: 8th (out of 163 experts tracked)
  • 2021: 6th (out of 172 experts tracked)
  • 2020: 9th (out of 149 experts tracked)

Some teams have already played their final preseason game and as the NFL preseason winds down, we are that much closer to the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football.

That also means that we are in the thick of fantasy draft season.

To help you prepare for your fantasy football drafts, we will continue to keep our fantasy football rankings updated until the start of the 2023 NFL season.

More 2023 fantasy football rankings:

1. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Fantasy managers know exactly what they're getting when they draft Allen, who has finished as fantasy's QB1, QB1 and QB2 over the past three seasons, respectively. Few quarterbacks have as much weekly upside and consistency as Allen. Last season, he finished as a top-six weekly QB in 12 of 16 games played and finished as a top-12 weekly quarterback in two more games.

2. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Hurts set career bests in passing — 66.5% completion, 8.0 Y/A, 4.8 TD%, 1.2 INT%, and 101.5 passer rating — in 2022. Despite his improvement as a passer, aided by the trade for A.J. Brown last offseason, it's especially the rushing production that makes him an elite fantasy quarterback. Over the past two seasons (30 games), the former Oklahoma (and Alabama) quarterback has rushed 304 times for 1,544 yards and 23 touchdowns. That's an equivalent to 9.75 fantasy points per game (from his rushing stats alone).

3. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Despite losing Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins, Mahomes didn't miss a beat and won his second NFL MVP award in 2022. He threw for 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns, both of which led the NFL last season. While he doesn't have as much rushing upside as Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts, he has more than 300 rushing yards in three consecutive seasons and multiple rushing scores in five consecutive seasons.

4. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

There is only one quarterback in NFL history with 25-plus passing touchdowns and 1,000-plus rushing yards in the same season, and that quarterback (Jackson) has done it twice. Of course, the biggest concern with Jackson is durability and the fact that he has missed five games in each of the past two seasons. With the Ravens bolstering their receiving corps by signing Odell Beckham Jr. and drafting Zay Flowers in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft and hiring Todd Monken to run the offense, the dual-threat quarterback has legitimate QB1 (overall) upside if he's able to stay healthy for a full season.

5. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears

Making improvements as a passer in his second season, Fields also made in-season strides highlighted by the following splits:

  • Games 1-7: 55.9% completion, five TDs and six INTs
  • Games 8-15: 63.7% completion, 12 TDs and five INTs

More improvement as a passer should be expected for his third season, but Fields has as much rushing upside as any quarterback in the NFL. He led the NFL in yards per carry (7.1) and ended the season with 1,143 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. Only six running backs rushed for more yards in 2022. Over his final 10 games, Fields was even more dominant as a runner with a per-game rushing line of 11.8/94.9/0.7 (8.04 YPC). In his final 10 games played, Fields finished as a top-10 weekly quarterback nine times, a top-five performer five times and the overall weekly QB1 twice.

6. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Does any team have as talented of a trio as the Bengals do with Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd? Burrow's rookie season (2020) ended prematurely after sustaining a torn ACL, but he has a 69.3% completion rate, 69 touchdowns (6.1 TD%) and 8.1 yards per attempt average over the past two years. It's unlikely for the Bengals to play Burrow in the preseason as he recovers from his strained calf, but NFL Network's Mike Garafolo notes that "it doesn't sound as if Week 1 is in jeopardy right now."

7. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Through three seasons, Herbert has averaged a 17-game pace of 4,696 yards, 31.3 touchdowns and 11.7 interceptions with another 237 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Through three seasons, he has finished as fantasy's QB9, QB2 and QB11, respectively. First-round rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnston adds a vertical weapon to this offense, and a new offensive scheme that encourages more shots down the field should boost Herbert's upside. Of the 36 quarterbacks with a minimum of 200 dropbacks in 2022, Herbert ranked 34th in ADOT, per PFF.

8. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

What a difference a year (and a new coaching staff) made for Lawrence! The 2021 NFL Draft's top overall pick completed 66.3% of his pass attempts for 7.0 yards per attempt, while throwing 25 touchdowns and only seven interceptions in 2022. (That compares to 59.6%, 6.0 Y/A and 12:17 TD-INT ratio in 2021.) In fact, Lawrence improved considerably as the season progressed — 69.7% completion rate, 7.4 Y/A and a 15-to-two TD-INT ratio from Weeks 9-18. Bigger things could/should be in store for Lawrence in 2023, as Calvin Ridley joins Christian Kirk, coming off career numbers (84/1108/8 in 2022), Evan Engram, and Travis Etienne.

9. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns

Appearing in only six games over the past two seasons, Watson started slow (under 13 fantasy points in three of his first four games) but closed 2022 with two solid performances — 21.9 (weekly QB8) and 19.6 (QB6), respectively. Given his dual-threat skill set, he has upside for a quarterback drafted as a back-end QB1.

10. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Prescott missed five games after getting injured in the season opener. From Week 7 (when he returned from injury) through the end of the season, Prescott was fantasy's QB6 — QB7 on a PPG basis. Even without Dalton Schultz as a security blanket, Prescott's overall weapons are improved with a better WR2 (Brandin Cooks). In addition, Michael Gallup should be better, now that he's another year removed from his ACL tear.

11. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks

Vastly outperforming his 2022 ADP, Smith led the NFL in completion percentage (69.8%) while throwing for 4,282 yards, 30 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. A repeat top-five fantasy finish may be unlikely, but Smith is a viable QB1 type, especially with the Seahawks drafting Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round to complement their dynamic duo of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. So, in other words, he's undervalued compared his ADP once again.

12. Daniel Jones, New York Giants

Underrated as a runner, Jones had 120 carries for 720 yards and seven touchdowns last season after racking up 172/1,000/5 (5.8 YPC) rushing in his first three seasons (2019-21). The Giants have added several new pass catchers to the roster, which should help improve his anemic passing numbers (3.2 TD% and 6.8 Y/A in 2022). Jones, who finished as fantasy's QB9 in 2022, should be drafted as a fringe QB1.

13. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis was arguably the ideal landing spot for Richardson. After all, new coach Shane Steichen tailored Philadelphia's offense to best suit the skill set of Jalen Hurts. Ups and downs should be expected for Richardson, but his elite athletic profile gives him enormous rushing upside from the start.

14. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings

Reunited with his former Washington offensive coordinator, Cousins finished as fantasy's QB7 with Kevin O'Connell in his first year as his head coach. That said, Cousins was 11th on a points-per-game basis (among QBs that played at least half the year) as the veteran quarterback set multi-year lows in completion percentage (65.9%), TD% (4.5), yards per attempt (7.1) and passer rating (92.5) in 2022. With the Vikings using a first-round pick on Jordan Addison to complement Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson, Cousins remains a steady back-end QB1 type heading into 2023.

15. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

Tagovailoa sustained multiple concussions, causing him to miss five games (counting a playoff loss) in 2022, and he even considered retiring after last season. When healthy, however, he posted career numbers and led the NFL in TD% (6.3), Y/A (8.9) and passer rating (105.5). Excluding the games he missed or left early (Weeks 4-6 and 17-18), Tagovailoa scored the seventh-most fantasy points over that span. Of course, durability and the potential for missed time factors into his 2023 outlook, but there is plenty of optimism if his health cooperates.

16. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets

After winning back-to-back NFL MVP awards in 2020 and 2021, Rodgers numbers (without Davante Adams) were well below his career averages across the board in 2022 — 64.6% (65.3% career average), 4.8 TD% (6.2%), 2.2 INT% (1.4%), 6.8 Y/A (7.7) and 91.1 passer rating (103.6). Regardless of how long the next era of his career lasts, Rodgers joins a Jets team that has a better supporting cast than he had last year in Green Bay.

17. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos

Wilson's debut season with the Broncos was a flop. He set career lows in completion percentage (60.5%), TDs/TD% (16, 3.3%) and passer rating (84.4). From Weeks 1 to 13, Wilson had only one top-12 weekly performance (Week 4), but he exceeded 24 fantasy points in three of his final four games in 2022. Transitioning to Sean Payton's offense improves optimism about Wilson's 2023 outlook (just ask Payton himself), but he should still be drafted as a fantasy QB2.

18. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

The Lions finished top five in the NFL in both scoring and total offense in 2022, and Goff was much better in his second season with the Lions than he was in his first. Throwing for 4,438 yards, 29 touchdowns and only seven interceptions, Goff finished as fantasy's QB10. Perhaps he'll push for a second consecutive top-12 campaign and he benefits from playing behind one of the league's better offensive lines and with a talented group of pass catchers, but he's better drafted as a QB2.

19. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers went 7-5 in Pickett's starts, but he threw more interceptions (nine, 2.3%) than touchdowns (seven, 1.8%) in 2022. That said, eight of his nine interceptions were thrown in his first five games. Pickett had zero multiple touchdown games and only one 300-yard passing game (Week 5, 52-attempt 38-3 loss to the Bills in his first-ever start). Some breakout potential exists if he continues to build upon his late-season improvements in efficiency, but how much will the Steelers open up the offense?

20. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

There were concerns with Stafford and his elbow heading into the 2022 season, and the veteran quarterback managed to appear in only nine games due to a spinal cord contusion. Stafford threw 10 touchdowns (3.3 TD%, his lowest since 2012) and eight interceptions and averaged 6.9 yards per attempt (lowest since 2018) with an 87.4 passer rating (lowest since 2014). Stafford is in a better place to start training camp this year, saying that he "feel(s) a lot better physically." If he can stay healthy in 2023, how close will he be to the 2021 version who led the Rams to the Super Bowl and finished as a top-five fantasy quarterback?

21. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

Both Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers created (what many would describe as unnecessary) drama towards the tail end of their Packer tenures, but they also provided the franchise with tremendous stability at the position for three decades. Packers coach Matt LaFleur has talked up Love's "complete command" of Green Bay's offense, but growing pains should be expected as the franchise transitions to its next era. The team loaded up on several Day 2 pass catchers (Luke Musgrave, Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, etc.) in the draft to help support his growth.

22. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

Mr. Irrelevant is the term given to the final pick of each NFL draft, but Purdy, the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, was anything but irrelevant in his rookie season. From December through his final snap of the playoffs, Purdy completed 151-of-224 pass attempts (67.4%) for 1,877 yards (8.38 Y/A), 16 touchdowns (7.1%) and only three interceptions (1.3%). Firmly entrenched as the starter going into 2023, there appear to be no lingering concerns following his offseason UCL surgery.

23. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans

Tannehill missed five games in 2022 and averaged fewer than 14 fantasy points per game for the season. Even though he was a fringe top-12 weekly quarterback in five of 12 games, he had only one 20-point performance (20.02, Week 11) all season. If the team (or Tannehill) struggles, it wouldn't be a surprise if the Titans transitioned to second-round pick Will Levis at some point during the season. If not, he may be undervalued for those in 2-QB or super flex formats.

24. Sam Howell, Washington Commanders

Slipping to the fifth round of the 2022 NFL Draft, Howell started the season finale and enters 2023 as Washington's starter. Howell completed only 11-of-19 pass attempts for 169 yards (8.9 Y/A), a touchdown and an interception in his lone start, and he also ran for 35 yards and a touchdown on five carries. With a talented receiving corps, a new offensive coordinator and some mobility, Howell has a chance to deliver better-than-expected results in 2023. If Howell struggles at all, however, it wouldn't be suprising to see Jacoby Brissett make starts.

25. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints

Carr was fantasy's QB15 through Week 16 before being benched in Week 17 by Josh McDaniels last year. Now in New Orleans, Carr improves the outlook for the team's pass catchers (as an upgrade over Andy Dalton), but he remains a solid QB2 in fantasy football. Since 2014, he has finished in the QB13-QB20 range every year except 2016 (QB10).

26. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

It was no surprise that the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft was named the Week 1 starter early in the process. While ups and downs should be expected for any rookie, Young is always composed, processes information quickly and thrives when extending and making plays outside of structure.

27. Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders

Replacing Derek Carr with Jimmy Garoppolo is a lateral move, at best, for the Raiders and the offense's outlook overall. From a fantasy perspective, Jimmy G. offers no upside as a runner and is a middling QB2, at best.

28. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

Stroud has consistently earned praise from his coaches and teammates throughout the offseason, even though he hasn't officially been named as the Week 1 starter against the Baltimore Ravens. An accurate passer when given time in the pocket at Ohio State, Stroud consistently made plays outside of structure against the Georgia Bulldogs in the College Football Playoff. He's off the fantasy radar in single-QB redraft leagues, but he should increase the overall efficiency of Houston's offense in 2023.

29. Mac Jones, New England Patriots

Jones missed some time in 2022, so his counting stats were down, but so were his efficiency numbers — 65.2% completion rate (67.6% in 2021), 3.2 TD% (4.2%), 6.8 Y/A (7.3) and 84.8 passer rating (92.5). Things should be better (than last year) with Bill O'Brien taking over the offense, but Jones' upside is relatively limited. Jones isn't draftable outside of two-QB or super flex leagues.

30. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

After Tom Brady's (second) retirement, the Bucs find themselves in the unenviable position of having to choose between Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask. Even though Tampa hasn't officially named their starter, it's more likely going to be Mayfield, who is on his fourth team in the past 18 months. Mayfield completed only 60% of his pass attempts in 2022 for 2,163 yards (6.5 Y/A), 10 touchdowns and eight interceptions over 12 games.

31. Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons

32. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

33. Colt McCoy, Arizona Cardinals

34. Jacoby Brissett, Washington Commanders

35. Kyle Trask, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

36. Clayton Tune, Arizona Cardinals

37. Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers

38. Sam Darnold, San Francisco 49ers

39. Gardner Minshew, Indianapolis Colts

40. Mike White, Miami Dolphins

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