Matthew Stafford: There were concerns with Stafford and his elbow heading into the 2022 season, and the veteran quarterback managed to appear in only nine games due to a spinal cord contusion. Stafford threw 10 touchdowns (3.3 TD%, his lowest since 2012) and eight interceptions and averaged 6.9 yards per attempt (lowest since 2018) with an 87.4 passer rating (lowest since 2014). If Stafford can stay healthy in 2023, how close will he be to the 2021 version who led the Rams to the Super Bowl?
Cam Akers: Akers missed nearly all of 2021 with a torn Achilles, but his volume has fluctuated quite a bit when healthy. Much of his 2022 production came during the final six weeks of the season when he finished with 104 carries for 512 yards (4.92 YPC) and six touchdowns and 11 receptions for 99 yards on 12 targets. Only Christian McCaffrey (767) — and wide receiver A.J. Brown — had more YFS from Weeks 13-18 than Akers (611).
Kyren Williams: He may be small (5-9 and 194 pounds) and slow (4.65 40-yard dash) by NFL standards, but Williams profiles as a third-down back who also has a shot to lead the team's running backs in receptions.
Cooper Kupp: Kupp pulled off the rare triple crown of receiving in 2021, finishing with 145 catches for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. While he missed roughly half of his follow-up season, the 2021 NFL Offensive Player of the Year had a better season than maybe most realized. Who led ALL receivers in half-PPR fantasy points scored in 2022 on a per-game basis? Yep, it was Kupp — not Justin Jefferson, or any other receiver. Of course, the problem is his hamstring and his uncertain status following his recent setback.
Van Jefferson: Making his season debut in Week 8 (and playing mostly when Kupp was out), Jefferson had only 24 catches for 369 yards and three touchdowns in nine games last season. Jefferson is an uninspiring WR5 in fantasy, but could move into the WR3 range if/when Kupp misses time.
Tyler Higbee: Higbee set career highs in targets (108, fourth-most among TEs) and receptions (72, fifth) in 2022. While Cooper Kupp missed nearly half of the season, Higbee's per-game numbers were actually better with Kupp (4.9/43 on 7.2 targets) than without Kupp (3.5/29 on 5.4 targets). At a position where volume is inconsistent outside of the elite options, there is value in the consistency of Higbee's volume.
Matthew Stafford: There were concerns with Stafford and his elbow heading into the 2022 season, and the veteran quarterback managed to appear in only nine games due to a spinal cord contusion. Stafford threw 10 touchdowns (3.3 TD%, his lowest since 2012) and eight interceptions and averaged 6.9 yards per attempt (lowest since 2018) with an 87.4 passer rating (lowest since 2014). If Stafford can stay healthy in 2023, how close will he be to the 2021 version who led the Rams to the Super Bowl and finished as a top-five fantasy quarterback?
Cam Akers: Akers missed nearly all of 2021 with a torn Achilles, but his volume has fluctuated quite a bit when healthy. Much of his 2022 production came during the final six weeks of the season when he finished with 104 carries for 512 yards (4.92 YPC) and six touchdowns and 11 receptions for 99 yards on 12 targets. Only Christian McCaffrey (767) — and wide receiver A.J. Brown — had more YFS from Weeks 13-18 than Akers (611).
Kyren Williams: He may be small (5-9 and 194 pounds) and slow (4.65 40-yard dash) by NFL standards, but Williams profiles as a third-down back who also has a shot to lead the team's running backs in receptions.
Cooper Kupp: Kupp pulled off the rare triple crown of receiving in 2021, finishing with 145 catches for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. While he missed roughly half of his follow-up season, the 2021 NFL Offensive Player of the Year had a better season than maybe most realized. Who led ALL receivers in half-PPR fantasy points scored in 2022 on a per-game basis? Yep, it was Kupp — not Justin Jefferson, or any other receiver. Kupp has been dealing with a hamstring injury, but he should be good to go for Week 1.
Van Jefferson: Making his season debut in Week 8 (and playing mostly when Kupp was out), Jefferson had only 24 catches for 369 yards and three touchdowns in nine games last season. Jefferson is an uninspiring WR5 in fantasy.
Tyler Higbee: Higbee set career highs in targets (108, fourth-most among TEs) and receptions (72, fifth) in 2022. While Cooper Kupp missed nearly half of the season, Higbee's per-game numbers were actually better with Kupp (4.9/43 on 7.2 targets) than without Kupp (3.5/29 on 5.4 targets). At a position where volume is inconsistent outside of the elite options, there is value in the consistency of Higbee's volume.
We will use a variety of scoring formats — point per reception (PPR), half-PPR, standard scoring and even 2-QB leagues — and league sizes. The goal is to provide you with a good representation of the team that you may be able to construct given your league settings and the rationale of why we made the picks we did.
Kupp pulled off the rare triple crown of receiving in 2021, finishing with 145 catches for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. While he missed roughly half of his follow-up season, the 2021 NFL Offensive Player of the Year had a better season than maybe most realized.
Who led ALL receivers in half-PPR fantasy points scored in 2022 on a per-game basis? Yep, it was Kupp — not Justin Jefferson, or any other receiver.
There are certainly concerns — age, cumulative career workload, the team's offensive issues, etc. Even so, Henry has led the NFL in rush attempts in three of the past four seasons (including 349 in 2022) and he's guaranteed a massive workload, as long as he remains healthy. He set a career high in receptions (33) in 2022, but he actually averaged more receptions per game in 2021 (2.3) than 2022 (2.1).
Of course, it would be preferred for Henry to be more involved as a receiver, but his relative lack of involvement in the passing game has been an over-emphasized reason to avoid Henry (at least in half-PPR formats). Here is where Henry has finished on a points-per-game basis in half-PPR scoring over the past four years (min. 8G played): third in 2022 (17.9), first in 2021 (23.0), third in 2020 (20.2) and second (tied) in 2019 (19.0), respectively.
Hurts set career bests in passing — 66.5% completion, 8.0 Y/A, 4.8 TD%, 1.2 INT%, and 101.5 passer rating — in 2022. Despite his improvement as a passer, aided by the trade for A.J. Brown last offseason, it's especially the rushing production that makes him an elite fantasy quarterback. Over the past two seasons (30 games), the former Oklahoma (and Alabama) quarterback has rushed 304 times for 1,544 yards and 23 touchdowns. That's an equivalent to 9.75 fantasy points per game (from his rushing stats alone).
Ridley broke out in 2020 with 90 catches for 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns as he finished as fantasy's WR4 (half-PPR scoring). Since then, he served a year-long suspension in 2022 after posting career lows in yards per reception (9.1), yards per target (5.4) and catch rate (59.6%) while appearing in only five games in 2021. Ridley gets a chance to rebound with an ascending quarterback and offense.
Excluding his rookie season (2017), Williams has averaged at least 14.2 yards per reception every year. While he missed four games last year, his 4.8/68.8 per-game numbers in 2022 were nearly identical to his 2021 career highs (4.8/71.6). Per PFF, Williams averaged 1.93 yards per route run in 2022, and that was just shy of his 2021 career high (1.97). Within the team's new offense, Williams should be moved around more often including more opportunities from the slot.
I'm comfortable with Johnson as my WR2, thrilled with him as my WR4/flex. For three consecutive seasons, Johnson has more than 85 catches and 140 targets and has led the team in receiving yards. Only four receivers — Davante Adams (498), Stefon Diggs (484), Justin Jefferson (476), and Tyreek Hill (464) — have more targets than Johnson (460) over that span. Despite scoring 15 touchdowns in the previous two seasons combined (2020-21), Johnson set the NFL record in 2022 for most receptions (86) without a touchdown. In other words, positive touchdown regression should be expected.
Pacheco generated some buzz last August as a seventh-round rookie, and then he delivered for fantasy managers who drafted the sleeper. He finished his inaugural season with 170 carries for 830 yards (4.9 YPC) and five touchdowns and added 13 catches for 130 yards (10.0 Y/R). Sitting atop the 2023 depth chart, Pacheco has a chance to improve upon his rookie numbers.
Fumbling issues plagued Gibson's 2021 season, and he was inefficient last season (3.66 YPC) with career lows in both touches (195) and yards from scrimmage (899). Gibson has a minimum of 36 catches in each season with a career-high 46 last year and coach Ron Rivera referred to him as a "matchup nightmare for the opponent."
After missing nearly all of 2020, Sutton has appeared in 32 of 34 games over the past two seasons and has averaged 61/803/2 over that time. Sutton should benefit from the offensive coaching upgrade, and the rash of injuries to the receiving corps will create more opportunities for Sutton.
Freiermuth followed up a strong rookie season (60/497/7) with 63 catches for 732 yards and two touchdowns. Despite scoring only twice in 2022, Freiermuth finished as fantasy's TE8 (half-PPR scoring). He had at least three catches in 13 of 16 games played.
Allgeier was a player I liked as a sleeper last year, and the fifth-rounder out of BYU eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark as a rookie. He finished 2022 with 210 carries for 1,035 yards (4.9 YPC) and three touchdowns and added 16 receptions for 139 yards and a score. With the Falcons drafting Bijan Robinson at No. 8 overall, it delivers a huge blow to Allgeier's fantasy stock but the Falcons will be one of the league's most run-heavy teams and he's worth drafting as an RB4 bench stash.
Following Wilson's midseason trade to Miami, both Raheem Mostert (Week 12) and Wilson (Week 15) missed one game each. In the games in which they both appeared, Wilson (82 touches) edged Mostert (80) in workload. Going into the 2023 season, I project Wilson to maintain a relatively slight edge, but the addition of De'Von Achane, their speedy third-round rookie, only clouds the outlook even further.
Miles Sanders played a full 17-game slate last season, but he's currently dealing with a hamstring injury and appeared in only 12 games in both 2020 and 2021. While Sanders should be ready to go before Week 1, Hubbard would likely handle the largest share of the workload in the event that Sanders were to miss any time, and he averaged 4.9 YPC last season.
Higbee set career highs in targets (108, fourth-most among TEs) and receptions (72, fifth) in 2022. While Cooper Kupp missed nearly half of the season, Higbee's per-game numbers were actually better with Kupp (4.9/43 on 7.2 targets) than without Kupp (3.5/29 on 5.4 targets). At a position where volume is inconsistent outside of the elite options, there is value in the consistency of Higbee's volume.
Some teams have already played their final preseason game and as the NFL preseason winds down, we are that much closer to the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football.
That also means that we are in the thick of fantasy draft season.
To help you prepare for your fantasy football drafts, we will continue to keep our fantasy football rankings updated until the start of the 2023 NFL season.
What more can Jefferson do? Not only has he improved his production in each successive season, but he brokeRandy Moss's record for receiving yards through a player's first three seasons. During those three seasons, he's racked up a total of 324 receptions for 4,825 yards and 25 touchdowns.
Chase missed five games in 2022, but in some ways, his numbers were even better in his second season. Chase averaged a 7.3/87.2/0.75 line and fell short of 50 receiving yards in only one of 12 games last season. As a rookie, he averaged 4.8/85.6/0.77 per game, but he failed to reach 50 receiving yards in six games in his debut season. Assuming that Chase stays healthy, bigger and better things should be expected in his age-23 season.
Kupp pulled off the rare triple crown of receiving in 2021, finishing with 145 catches for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. While he missed roughly half of his follow-up season, the 2021 NFL Offensive Player of the Year had a better season than maybe most realized.
Who led ALL receivers in half-PPR fantasy points scored in 2022 on a per-game basis? Yep, it was Kupp — not Justin Jefferson, or any other receiver.
After transitioning from Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City's high-powered offense, the drop in production that many forecast for Hill never materialized. In fact, the explosive wideout averaged more than 100 receiving yards per game for the first time ever as he set career highs in targets (170), receptions (119) and yards (1,710) in 2022. Hill was involved in a June 18th incident, which was under both police and league investigation, but attorneys for both sides issued a statement saying they have "resolved their differences."
Since becoming a Bill, Diggs has posted the following stat lines — 127/1535/8 (2020), 103/1225/10 (2021) and 108/1429/11 (2022). During that same span, he has finished as fantasy's WR3, WR7 and WR4, respectively. Diggs has an extremely high floor as Josh Allen's go-to receiver within Buffalo's high-powered offense.
After Amari Cooper was traded to the Browns last offseason, Lamb stepped into the WR1 role and shattered previous career highs with 107 receptions for 1,359 yards and nine touchdowns on 156 targets. Lamb finished as fantasy's WR6 in half-PPR scoring in 2022, and he was the WR3 from Weeks 7-18 when Dak Prescott returned from injury.
In his first season without Aaron Rodgers, Adams was targeted a career-high 180 times and finished with 100 catches for 1,516 yards and a league-leading 14 touchdowns. Adams remains the league's best red zone weapon with double-digit touchdowns in six of the past seven seasons.
Extremely productive through his first two seasons, St. Brown set career highs in 2022 with 106 receptions, 1,161 yards and six touchdowns. Given Jameson Williams' six-game suspension to start the season, St. Brown should continue to see massive target shares.
Brown shattered previous career highs in targets (145), receptions (88) and yards (1,496) last season and tied his career high in touchdowns (11) in his first season in Philadelphia. Even if he doesn't repeat as a top-five fantasy wide receiver, he's the 1A in this offense to Devonta Smith's 1B, and should be drafted as a top-10 receiver in 2023.
With Tyreek Hill setting career highs in targets, receptions and yards, it's not a surprise that Waddle's targets dropped to 117 (in 2022) from 140 (in 2021). That said, he was utilized further downfield as his ADOT jumped to 12.7 (from 7.0), per PFF, and he led the NFL in yards per reception (18.1). He finished as fantasy's WR7 overall and was 13th on a per-game basis (13.0).
Other than perhaps the Dolphins with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle or the Eagles with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, no team has a better WR duo than the Bengals have with Chase and Higgins. As he enters his age-24 season, the former Clemson Tiger already has three years of consistent production with a total of 215 catches for 3,028 yards and 19 touchdowns. Higgins has a minimum of three catches in 38 of the 41 games in which he played at least 50% of the offensive snaps.
Olave finished his outstanding rookie season with 72 receptions for 1,042 yards and four touchdowns. While he missed two games last season, he never finished with fewer than three receptions or 40 yards in the 15 games he played. The second-year receiver should benefit from the upgrade at quarterback and could take a big step forward in 2023.
Despite poor quarterback play, Wilson was outstanding in 2022 as he finished with 83 receptions for 1,103 yards and four touchdowns and was named NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. More efficient quarterback play should help Wilson in his second season.
Ridley broke out in 2020 with 90 catches for 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns as he finished as fantasy's WR4 (half-PPR scoring). Since then, he served a year-long suspension in 2022 after posting career lows in yards per reception (9.1), yards per target (5.4) and catch rate (59.6%) while appearing in only five games in 2021. Ridley gets a chance to rebound with an ascending quarterback and offense. Although I have been higher on him than most throughout the offseason, his ADP has continually climbed to point where he's moving into the fairly valued (as opposed to undervalued) range.
Through Week 10, Allen appeared in only two games during which he played 45 offensive snaps. In eight games from Weeks 11-18, however, he had a minimum of five catches every week and tallied 60 receptions for 675 yards and four touchdowns during that eight-game span. Only Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson and A.J. Brown scored more fantasy points during that stretch.
Metcalf has a minimum of 900 receiving yards in all four of his NFL seasons. While he finished with only six touchdowns last season, he had a combined 22 scores in the previous two seasons and he set career highs in targets (141) and receptions (90) in 2022.
Smith followed up a strong 2021 rookie season (64/916/5) with an even better sophomore campaign (95/1,196/7) despite the addition of A.J. Brown to the receiving corps. Brown was fantasy's WR5 (half-PPR scoring) in 2022, but Smith was also a top-10 performer last season.
Samuel has missed multiple games in two of the past three seasons, and his physical play style increases his durability risk. Playing in 13 games and describing his own play as "awful" last season, Samuel finished with 56 receptions for 632 yards and two touchdowns and added 42 carries for 232 yards and three touchdowns. At a minimum, a motivated Samuel should be better on a per-touch basis in 2023 than he was last year.
Excluding his rookie season (2017), Williams has averaged at least 14.2 yards per reception every year. While he missed four games last year, his 4.8/68.8 per-game numbers in 2022 were nearly identical to his 2021 career highs (4.8/71.6). Per PFF, Williams averaged 1.93 yards per route run in 2022, and that was just shy of his 2021 career high (1.97). Within the team's new offense, Williams should be moved around more often including more opportunities from the slot.
Johnson has more than 85 catches and 140 targets while leading the team in receiving yards in three consecutive seasons. Despite scoring 15 touchdowns in the previous two seasons (2020-21), Johnson set the NFL record in 2022 for most receptions (86) without a touchdown. In other words, some positive touchdown regression should be expected.
Cooper finished his first season as a Brown with 78 receptions for 1,160 yards and a career-high nine touchdowns. Finishing the year as fantasy's WR9 (half-PPR scoring), Cooper had six top-12 weeks, but he also finished outside the top 50 wide receivers six times. It was the sixth 1,000-yard season of Cooper's eight-year career. In theory, a full season with Deshaun Watson under center should be good for Cooper's 2023 fantasy outlook, but there is increased competition for targets.
Jeudy set career highs in receptions (67), yards (972) and touchdowns (six) on 100 targets over 15 games in 2022. Jeudy had 53-plus yards in 10 of his final 11 games if we exclude Week 10 (when he played only one offensive snap). During that 11-game stretch, Jeudy posted a 60/842/5 line with a 72.3% catch rate and 10.14 yards per target. Given the offseason coaching change and Jeudy's production last season when healthy, he has the potential for even better numbers in 2023. Speaking of his health, Jeudy is expected to miss several weeks after suffering a hamstring injury. Per NFL Media's Ian Rapoport, "there's optimism it's nothing long term" although his Week 1 status is in question.
Just shy of the 1,000-yard mark as a rookie (2019) when he missed two games, McLaurin has since finished every season with more than 75 receptions and 1,000 yards. While he has averaged 80.3 receptions and 1,120.7 yards over the past three seasons, he has only 14 total touchdowns.
Lockett has exceeded 1,000 receiving yards in four consecutive seasons, and he has scored eight or more touchdowns in five consecutive seasons. Consistently outperforming his preseason ADP, Lockett has finished as fantasy's WR13 (2022), WR13 (2021), WR9 (2020), WR14 (2019) and WR15 (2018), respectively. While the team drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round, it's likely that Lockett continues to exceed expectations.
Brown missed a stretch of five games in the middle of the season, but he played the first six games, missed five, and then played the final six games. During that span of the first six games, DeAndre Hopkins served a league-imposed suspension and Brown racked up a 43/485/3 stat line on 64 targets. That was much better than his final six games (24/224/0 on 43 targets), playing alongside Hopkins. From Weeks 1 to 6, Brown tied for third with Stefon Diggs (64) among wide receivers in targets behind Cooper Kupp (72) and Tyreek Hill (65). Only seven wide receivers scored more fantasy points during that stretch. Long story short: I'm betting Brown will outperform his ADP (by a possibly large margin) in 2023.
Aiyuk had the best season of his young career in 2022 with 78 catches for 1,015 yards and eight touchdowns, all career highs, and he was a top-15 fantasy wide receiver (half-PPR scoring). The only concern with Aiyuk, and other San Francisco skill-position players, is the competition for touches with so many talented pass catchers on the roster.
Atlanta was/is a low-volume passing attack, but London led the Falcons in targets (117, 29.25%), receptions (72), yards (866) and touchdowns (four) as a rookie. Among wide receivers with 35-plus targets in 2022, London ranked 14th in yards per route run (2.07), per PFF. When Kyle Pitts (knee) was sidelined down the stretch, London was at his best. He finished with 31/428 on 48 targets over the final five games of the year.
Hopkins has missed a total of 15 games over the past two seasons due to either injury or suspension, and he joins the run-first Titans after being released by the Cardinals this offseason. In his nine games played last season, however, he averaged 10.7 targets per game and a 7.1/79.7/0.3 stat line.
Watson missed three of the team's first nine games, and he played more than one-third of the team's offensive snaps in only one game (Week 1) during that stretch. From Weeks 10-18, however, Watson racked up 31/523/7 on 52 targets over eight games and added 61 rushing yards and a score. He was fantasy's WR7 during that span.
Godwin has missed multiple games in each of the past four seasons. While he set a career high in targets (142) and receptions (104) in 2022 and has reached the 1,000-yard mark in three of his past four seasons, he set a career low in Y/R (9.8) and his three touchdowns were a non-rookie career low. The downgrade at quarterback from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield (or Kyle Trask) will impact Godwin, Mike Evans and the team's passing offense overall.
Evans extended his 1,000-yard streak to his first nine NFL seasons, which beat his own record in 2022. While the targets (127), receptions (77), yards (1,124) and Y/R (14.6) all look good, he had only six touchdowns, a five-year low, and he wasn't consistent throughout the season. A monster Week 17 game (20/207/3) against Carolina ended an 11-game scoring drought (Weeks 5-16). Evans exceeded 59 yards only once from Weeks 9-16. Even if he extends his 1,000-yard streak, there could be plenty of ups and downs throughout the course of the season given the quarterback downgrade.
Moore set four-year lows in receptions (63) and yards (888) last season, although he posted a career high in touchdowns (seven). Justin Fields should continue to improve as a passer in 2023 (in part due to the boost Moore provides to the receiving corps), but the Bears ranked last in the league in passing play percentage (43.8%) last season. In other words, Moore may not get a significant jump in targets from the 118 he had last season with the Panthers.
Among rookie wide receivers, only Atlanta's Drake London (866) had more yards than Pickens (801) in 2022. Pickens averaged 15.4 yards per catch and made a number of acrobatic highlight-reel catches throughout the year.
Kirk set career highs across the board — 133 targets, 84 receptions, 1,108 yards and eight touchdowns — in his first season with the Jaguars. It will be difficult for Kirk to duplicate last season's 23.2% target share with Calvin Ridley returning from suspension.
Pittman set a career high in receptions (99) while averaging a career low in Y/R (9.3) in 2022. While he should lead the receiving corps across the board, fantasy managers should expect some week-to-week inconsistency from Pittman as his rookie quarterback adjusts to the NFL.
Now onto his fifth NFL team, Cooks has logged six 1,000-yard seasons, at least one of which came with all four of his previous teams. Coming off a disappointing 57/699/3 season in 2022, Cooks should improve upon last year's numbers and is a viable fantasy WR3.
After missing nearly all of 2020, Sutton has appeared in 32 of 34 games over the past two seasons and has averaged 61/803/2 over that time. Like with Jeudy, Sutton should benefit from the offensive coaching upgrade.
A popular name on 2022 breakout lists, Davis set (or tied) career highs in receptions (48), targets (93), yards (836) and touchdowns (seven) last season. And although he finished as fantasy's WR27, it's fair to say that many fantasy managers expected more. Davis failed to reach the 40-yard mark in eight of 15 regular-season games, and he scored only once in those eight modest performances.
Dotson missed five games in his rookie season, but the 2022 first-rounder finished with 35 receptions for 523 yards (14.9 Y/R) and seven touchdowns. Dotson has some breakout appeal as he heads into his sophomore campaign.
While he lacks elite straight-line speed, Smith-Njigba posted combine-best performances in both the 3-cone (6.57 seconds) and 20-yard shuttle (3.93), and he's a polished route runner with outstanding ball skills and body control. He set the Big Ten receiving record in 2021 (1,606 yards) while playing alongside Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, and ESPN's Dan Graziano has referred to him as a "legitimate sleeper candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year." After undergoing wrist surgery, however, JSN is considered a "longshot."
Lazard posted career highs in targets (100), receptions (60) and yards (788) last season. Although Lazard edged his Packers teammate Christian Watson in fantasy points scored last season, both of whom finished as top-36 performers, Watson outscored him on a per-game basis. While he benefits from continuing to catch passes from Aaron Rodgers, there's a clear talent gap between Garrett Wilson and Lazard.
Meyers finished with 67 catches for 804 yards and six touchdowns in 2022 as he averaged a career-high 57.4 YPG. Given his familiarity with the offense and that Darren Waller is now a Giant, Meyers should rank (albeit a distant) second on the team in receiving, producing WR3/flex numbers in 2023.
Smith-Schuster had 78 catches for 933 yards and three touchdowns in his lone season with the Chiefs. It's fair to say the transition from Patrick Mahomes to Mac Jones is a significant downgrade. After all, the Chiefs averaged nearly 90 more passing yards per game (89.8) and more than doubled up the Patriots in passing touchdowns (41 to 19). That said, he's atop New England's target pecking order and could come close to repeating last year's numbers.
Marquez Valdez-Scantling will have some spike weeks, but good luck predicting when those will occur, which make him a better option in best ball formats. Meanwhile, the variance of potential outcomes for Kadarius Toney may make fantasy managers hesitant on draft day. While he had a quiet rookie season (22/250/0 on 33 targets), Moore has emerged as the most likely candidate to lead Kansas City's receiving corps in fantasy production.
With Justin Jefferson commanding so much defensive attention, Addison's landing spot is ideal for his ability to make an early impact. While he ran a slower-than-expected 40-yard dash (4.49) at the NFL Combine, the former Biletnikoff Award winner is a polished route-runner with some inside/outside versatility and the ability to win at all three levels.
Collins appeared in only 10 games last season, but he ranked second to Brandin Cooks on a per-game basis in receptions (3.7) and yards (48.1). With Cooks traded to the Dallas Cowboys, Collins is a breakout candidate and the favorite to lead the Texans' receiving corps in fantasy production.
Before an injury ended his rookie season prematurely, Moore had 34 catches for 459 yards and five touchdowns over his final six games in 2021. (Moore was so good during that span that only Justin Jefferson had more fantasy points over that stretch.) When he was on the field in 2022, however, things didn't go nearly as well, but he'll get an opportunity to reset with the Browns in 2023.
Johnston battled drops at TCU, but his combination of size and speed will allow him to make big plays. Given the new-look offense that should push the ball down the field more often, Johnston has the potential for several big games.
Trailing only Kirk in receiving, Jones posted a career season (82/823/5 on 121 targets) in 2022 as he finished as fantasy's WR26 in half-PPR scoring. The presence of Ridley as the WR1 pushes Jones down the pecking order for targets, but the offense overall should be even better than it was in 2022.
Burks had a modest 33 catches for 444 yards and a touchdown in 11 games as a rookie last season. ESPN's Turron Davenport noted earlier this summer that Burks had a "noticeably leaner build" this year and he's "playing at a different speed from his rookie season." Odds of a breakout have declined more recently, however, after the Titans signed Hopkins and then Burks sprained his LCL, an injury that will sideline him a few weeks.
Beckham Jr. started his career with three consecutive seasons of at least 90/1,300/10 and 1,000-plus yards in five of his first six seasons. That said, OBJ has a total of 856 receiving yards over the past three years, which includes none in 2022 as he recovered from his knee injury. Even if he leads Baltimore's receivers in fantasy production, the range between the team's WR1 and WR3 could be very narrow, as I project.
From 2016 to 2019, Thomas posted better numbers in each successive season — 92/1,137/9, 104/1,245/5, 125/1,405/9 and 149/1,725/9, respectively. Since then, however, he has appeared in only 10 games over three seasons and totaled 56 catches for 609 yards and three touchdowns. It's anyone's guess how much fantasy managers will get out of him in his age-30 season.
Flowers was ultra-productive for the Boston College Eagles despite poor quarterback play and opposing defenses knowing he was "the" guy. He gives the offense a shot in the arm, although there may not be enough targets to go around for him (or any of the top wide receivers) to make a consistent weekly fantasy impact this year if all of the team's top weapons are healthy.
The range of potential outcomes is wide enough that you may see Toney appear on both breakout and bust lists heading into the 2023 season. Earlier this offseason, offensive coordinator Matt Nagy talked up Toney, who many had figured would step into the WR1 role vacated by JuJu Smith-Schuster. If he can (get and) stay healthy, it's certainly possible that he earns the second-most targets on the team behind Travis Kelce although it seems even more likely that it's someone else (e.g., Skyy Moore).
Moore has missed 12 games including nine last season since being selected with a top-50 pick in 2021. In 22 career NFL games, he has a total of 920 yards from scrimmage on 119 touches (95 receptions and 24 carries) and two touchdowns. On a positive note, he had 24/255/1 receiving on 31 targets in his last three full games (Weeks 8-10 in 2022). Could a breakout be forthcoming for Moore?
Jefferson is an uninspiring WR5 in fantasy. Making his season debut in Week 8 (and playing mostly when Kupp was out), Jefferson had only 24 catches for 369 yards and three touchdowns in nine games last season.
Boyd set five-year lows in targets (82), receptions (58) and yards (762) in 2022. Even so, he has extended his streak of top-36 seasons (half-PPR scoring) to five. He's a relatively low-upside flex option, other than weeks where either Chase or Higgins is sidelined.
Samuel played limited offensive snaps (84) in his first season (2021) with the Commanders as he dealt with injuries, but he had 64 receptions for 656 yards and four touchdowns and added 187 rushing yards and a score in 2022. In his past three healthy seasons, he has finished as fantasy's WR34 (2022), WR25 (2020) and WR36 (2019). Perhaps he doesn't have a fourth top-36 season in five years, but he'll likely outperform his ADP if he can stay healthy.
Doubs missed four games in 2022, but the fourth-rounder finished his rookie season with 42 catches for 425 yards and three touchdowns. As he competes with second-round rookie Jayden Reed for targets behind Watson, Doubs has the upside to outperform his current ADP.
Bateman has appeared in 18 (of 34 possible) career games, and he has posted a receiving line so far of 61/800/3. If he scored the fantasy equivalent of that line last season, he would have finished as fantasy's WR43 in half-PPR scoring. Add in more competition (Beckham and Flowers) and the likelihood of a Bateman breakout in 2023 is relatively low. In fact, I prefer Beckham and Flowers over Bateman.
We will use a variety of scoring formats — point per reception (PPR), half-PPR, standard scoring and even 2-QB leagues — and league sizes. The goal is to provide you with a good representation of the team that you may be able to construct given your league settings and the rationale of why we made the picks we did.
Kupp pulled off the rare triple crown of receiving in 2021, finishing with 145 catches for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. While he missed roughly half of his follow-up season, the 2021 NFL Offensive Player of the Year led ALL receivers in half-PPR fantasy points scored in 2022 on a per-game basis.
Henry has led the NFL in rush attempts in three of the past four seasons (including 349 in 2022) and he's guaranteed a massive workload, as long as he remains healthy. While he set a career high in receptions (33) in 2022, he actually averaged more receptions per game in 2021 (2.3) than 2022 (2.1). Being more involved as a receiver would obviously be better, but here is where Henry has finished on a points-per-game basis in half-PPR scoring over the past four years (min. 8G played): third in 2022 (17.9), first in 2021 (23.0), third in 2020 (20.2) and second (tied) in 2019 (19.0), respectively.
Other than perhaps the Dolphins with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, no team has a better WR duo than the Bengals have with Ja'Marr Chase and Higgins. As he enters his age-24 season, the former Clemson Tiger already has three seasons of consistent production with a total of 215 catches for 3,028 yards and 19 touchdowns. Higgins has a minimum of three catches in 38 of the 41 games in which he played at least 50% of the offensive snaps.
There are two main risks with Samuel — durability concerns due to his physical play style and the number of mouths to feed in San Francisco's talented offense. A motivated Samuel should be better on a per-touch basis in 2023 than he was last year.
Much of Akers' 2022 production came in the final six weeks of the season when he finished with 104 carries for 512 yards (4.92 YPC) and six touchdowns and 11 receptions for 99 yards on 12 targets. If he maintains a workhorse role throughout the whole season, there is plenty of upside with him here in the fifth round.
White sits atop the team's depth chart and should dominate touches in 2023. As a 2022 rookie, he had 129 carries for 481 yards (only 3.7 YPC) and a touchdown in addition to 50 receptions for 290 yards and two touchdowns. The biggest concern for White (and all of Tampa's skill-position players) remains how much the offense struggles in a post-Tom Brady world.
A couple of seasons removed from back-to-back 1,100-yard campaigns, Waller is clearly the top weapon in New York's passing attack. While he has been limited to only 20 games over the past two seasons, his 17-game pace is 71/895/4 during that stretch.
What a difference a year (and a new coaching staff) made for Lawrence! The 2021 NFL Draft's top overall pick completed 66.3% of his pass attempts for 7.0 yards per attempt, while throwing 25 touchdowns and only seven interceptions in 2022. (That compares to 59.6%, 6.0 Y/A and 12:17 TD-INT ratio in 2021.) In fact, Lawrence improved considerably as the season progressed — 69.7% completion rate, 7.4 Y/A and a 15-to-two TD-INT ratio from Weeks 9-18. Bigger things could/should be in store for Lawrence in 2023, as Calvin Ridley joins Christian Kirk, coming off career numbers (84/1108/8 in 2022), Evan Engram, and Travis Etienne.
Through five NFL seasons, Penny has missed nearly as many games (40) as he has played (42). When healthy, however, he has averaged 5.7 yards per carry over his career and an even-better 6.2 YPC over the past two seasons (176/1095/8). As long as he's healthy, however, Penny would be a great fit for the Miles Sanders role within the backfield.
Before an injury ended his rookie season prematurely, Moore had 34 catches for 459 yards and five touchdowns over his final six games in 2021. (Moore was so good during that span that only Justin Jefferson had more fantasy points over that stretch.) When he was on the field in 2022, things didn't go as well, but he'll get an opportunity to reset with the Browns in 2023.
Allgeier was a player I liked as a sleeper last year, and the fifth-rounder out of BYU eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark as a rookie. With the Falcons drafting Robinson at No. 8 overall, it obviously delivers a huge blow to Allgeier's fantasy stock, but he is worth a stash as my RB5 on this roster.
Gallup missed only the first three games of 2022, but his production was abysmal (39/424/4 in the regular season). Including two playoff games, he had less than 50 receiving yards in 15 of 16 games. Getting back to an 1,100-yard season (2019) is highly unlikely, but he should be better in 2023 now that he's another year removed from his torn ACL.
Indianapolis was arguably the most ideal landing spot for Richardson. After all, new coach Shane Steichen tailored Philadelphia's offense to best suit the skill set of Jalen Hurts. Ups and downs should be expected for Richardson, but his elite athletic profile gives him enormous rushing upside from the point he becomes the starter (presumably Week 1).
Unintentionally adding my third Ram here, Higbee set career highs in targets (108, fourth-most among TEs) and receptions (72, fifth) in 2022. While Kupp missed nearly half of the season, Higbee's per-game numbers were actually better with Kupp (4.9/43 on 7.2 targets) than without Kupp (3.5/29 on 5.4 targets). At a position where volume is inconsistent outside of the elite options, there is value in the consistency of Higbee's volume, especially given Waller's recent injury history.
