Sunday, January 21, 2018

Fantasy Football TE Rankings: Championship Games Round

Down to only four teams with three games to go, we have published our fantasy football rankings for the AFC and NFC Championship Games.

With that said, here are our fantasy football tight end rankings for this week's games:

1. Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots

With the exception of Vance McDonald, who finished with 10 catches for 112 yards last weekend, the Jaguars only allowed three (other) tight ends to go over 50 receiving yards this season. Of course, Gronk is a matchup nightmare and he should see a heavy dose of targets from Tom Brady, especially given the talented Jacksonville perimeter corners.


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2. Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles

While Gronk's matchup isn't favorable, Ertz has an even more difficult matchup. No team allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season than the Vikings. Finishing with 70-plus catches, 100-plus targets and 800-plus yards this season, Ertz also set a career high in touchdowns (eight). The loss of Carson Wentz limits his upside as the team will lean heavily on Jay Ajayi and their backfield as none of the team's pass-catchers exceeded five targets in last week's 15-10 win over the Falcons.

3. Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings

With 15 touchdowns over the past two seasons, Rudolph's numbers dipped year-over-year (83/840 in 2016 to 57/532 in 2017). Even though Rudolph has a more favorable matchup than either Gronk or Ertz, I'd still rank him third this weekend. That said, the gap between him and Ertz is closer than that between Ertz and Gronkowski.

4. Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars

Scoring five touchdowns this season, Lewis had three of them in one game (Week 3). Over the next three games, he sandwiched a one-catch, 14-yard performance with a pair of goose eggs. If the Jags are able to move the ball with any success, Lewis could be the recipient of a red-zone target or two, but he's nothing more than a fantasy dart throw.

Here are the next seven tight ends:

5. Trey Burton, Philadelphia Eagles
6. Dwayne Allen, New England Patriots
7. James O'Shaughnessy, Jacksonville Jaguars
8. Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles
9. David Morgan, Minnesota Vikings
10. Ben Koyack, Jacksonville Jaguars
11. Jacob Hollister, New England Patriots
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Fantasy Football WR Rankings: Championship Games Round

Down to only four teams with three games to go, we have published our fantasy football rankings for the AFC and NFC Championship Games.

With that said, here are our fantasy football wide receiver rankings for this week's games:

1. Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings

Diggs scored an unlikely 61-yard touchdown to send the Vikings to the NFC Championship Game and finished the week with six catches for 137 yards and a score. He now has five-plus catches in five consecutive games and a touchdown in four straight. Both he and Adam Thielen are the top-two options on Sunday.

2. Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings

A Pro Bowl snub, Thielen took another big step forward in 2017 (91/1,276/4) following last year's breakout season (69/967/5). Thielen had six catches for 94 yards against the Saints on Sunday. As challenging of a matchup as the Jaguars and Vikings pose to the Patriots and Eagles receivers, respectively, Diggs and Thielen enters this week's games as the 1(a)/1(b) receivers -- separated by only 0.04 fantasy points in my projections.


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3. Brandin Cooks, New England Patriots

No team allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season than the Jaguars, who have the league's best cornerback duo in Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. Perhaps the Jags will use Ramsey on Gronk, but things won't be easy for Cooks and New England's receivers. Plus the hand injury to Tom Brady doesn't help, even if it appears that it won't limit him in a major way on Sunday.

4. Nelson Agholor, Philadelphia Eagles

Coming off a career-best season (62/768/8), Agholor had three catches for 24 yards and two rushes for 20 yards in Sunday's win over the Falcons. With a conservative approach in a Carson Wentz-less offense, it's difficult to get too excited about any of the Eagles pass-catchers, but I'd actually prefer Agholor slightly to Alshon Jeffery.

5. Alshon Jeffery, Philadelphia Eagles

In his debut season with the Eagles, Jeffery failed to reach the 100-yard milestone in any game, but he scored nine touchdowns -- one shy of his career high (10) set in 2014. Not only was the injury of Wentz a huge blow to Jeffery, as the team plays it much more conservatively on offense, but Jeffery is likely to draw shadow coverage from Xavier Rhodes on Sunday.

6. Chris Hogan, New England Patriots

In his first game back, Hogan didn't appear limited as he played on 83 percent of the team's offfensive snaps. Targeted only four times, Hogan finished with just one catch for four yards but it was a touchdown. The matchup against Jacksonville's elite corners is certainly difficult, but Hogan should see more targets this weekend.

7. Danny Amendola, New England Patriots

Amendola converted 13 targets last weekend into 11 catches for 112 yards, both of which were team highs. Even if that's something he's unlikely to repeat this weekend, he should see plenty of targets from Brady this week as well. With low touchdown upside, he remains a better option in full PPR formats.

8. Marqise Lee, Jacksonville Jaguars

Relatively quiet in two postseason wins, Lee had a team-high six targets last week as he finished with three catches for 28 yards. Up to this point in the playoffs, the Jags have been able to utilize a run-heavy approach with only 49 combined pass attempts from Blake Bortles. While that will remain the preferred approach, the daunting task of winning a playoff game in Foxboro could dictate that they throw more often than they'd like this week. Either way, I'd expect Lee to once again lead the team's wideouts in targets.

9. Dede Westbrook, Jacksonville Jaguars

In two postseason wins, Westbrook has six catches for 56 yards on 11 targets. As noted above, the team has only thrown the ball 49 times in those two games so Westbrook has had 22.45 percent of the team's targets. If game flow leads to more pass attempts, Westbrook could have his best fantasy performance of the postseason this weekend.

10. Keelan Cole, Jacksonville Jaguars

Cole has only one catch and two targets in the team's two playoff games, but he had a very productive stretch in December. From Weeks 13 to 16, Cole had 100-plus yards and/or a touchdown in all four of those games. Given the recent success and chemistry he has shown with Bortles, it's certainly possible that Cole erupts with a December-like game, especially if the score gets out of hand early.

Here are the next eight wide receivers:

11. Allen Hurns, Jacksonville Jaguars
12. Jarius Wright, Minnesota Vikings
13. Torrey Smith, Philadelphia Eagles
14. Laquon Treadwell, Minnesota Vikings
15. Mack Hollins, Philadelphia Eagles
16. Michael Floyd, Minnesota Vikings
17. Phillip Dorsett, New England Patriots
18. Kenny Britt, New England Patriots


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Fantasy Football RB Rankings: Championship Games Round

Down to only four teams with three games to go, we have published our fantasy football rankings for the AFC and NFC Championship Games.

With that said, here are our fantasy football running back rankings for this week's games:

1. Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars

If Doug Marrone had his way, Blake Bortles wouldn't throw a single pass on Sunday. Of course, Bill Belichick will do everything to take away Jacksonville's biggest offensive weapon (Fournette). Against the Steelers, Fournette carried the ball 25 times for 109 yards and three touchdowns and added two catches for nine yards. In addition to New England's presumed defensive game plan, negative game script (TD+ underdogs) doesn't bode well for Fournette. Based on volume (and talent), however, Fournette is still the top option among this week's backs.

2. Dion Lewis, New England Patriots

Over his previous three games, Lewis has 65 carries and 20 receptions for a total of 427 yards and four touchdowns. In the four games before that stretch, Rex Burkhead had a total of six touchdowns and will return this week. There is the potential for Lewis to get vultured near the goal line, but he should once again lead the backfield in workload.


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3. Jay Ajayi, Philadelphia Eagles

Ajayi totalled 98 yards from scrimmage on 15 carries and three receptions in last week's win over the Falcons and I'd expect him to get 18-plus touches once again. The Eagles are home 'dogs against the Vikings, who allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, but the loss of Carson Wentz will force the Eagles to rely more heavily on Ajayi and their ground game.

4. Latavius Murray, Minnesota Vikings

Including last week's playoff win, Murray has 19-plus carries in four consecutive games and he has eight rushing touchdowns in his past nine games. Including the postseason, Murray has averaged just 3.8 yards per carry this season and the Eagles had the league's top-ranked rush defense (79.2 YPG allowed). Based on workload, however, Murray should at least be able to grind out mediocre numbers.

5. Rex Burkhead, New England Patriots

As noted above, Burkhead is expected to return this week and he was a scoring machine prior to his injury with six scores over a four-game span. With the highest implied total of the weekend, the team's running backs (and offense in general) have plenty of scoring upside.

6. Jerick McKinnon, Minnesota Vikings

Since Week 5 without Dalvin Cook, McKinnon has double-digit touches in all but two games and a minimum of eight touches weekly. Setting career highs in receptions (51) and falling just short of 1,000 yards from scrimmage (991), McKinnon should see 10-12 touches as a change-of-pace complement to Murray.

7. T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars

Chris Ivory was a healthy scratch last weekend and expect that to be the case once again. Given Fournette's ankle issues, Yeldon could see a fair amount of work if Fournette is sidelined at all during the game (like last week) or if the game gets out of hand early.

8. James White, New England Patriots

White turned eight touches and 40 yards into a big day with a pair of touchdowns against the Titans. With Burkhead likely to return this week, however, White's role is a little less certain this week.

The next four:

9. LeGarrette Blount, Philadelphia Eagles
10. Corey Clement, Philadelphia Eagles
11. Corey Grant, Jacksonville Jaguars
12. Tommy Bohanon, Jacksonville Jaguars


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Saturday, January 20, 2018

Fantasy Football QB Rankings: Championship Game Round

Down to only four teams and three games to go, we have published our fantasy football rankings for the AFC and NFC Championship Games.

In a game where quarterback play is so important, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan were all eliminated last week as Case Keenum, Blake Bortles and Nick Foles advanced to the Final Four.

With that said, here are our fantasy football quarterback rankings for this week's games:

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1. Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Posting relatively modest numbers in December (240.6 YPG, six TDs and five INTs over five games), Brady threw for 337 yards and three scores against the Titans in the Divisional Round. Things won't be as easy against the Jaguars, but Brady is the clear-cut top quarterback on Sunday despite a hand injury requiring stitches this week. After limiting opponents to one (or zero) passing touchdowns in their first eight games, the Jags have allowed multiple passing scores in five of their past 10 games.


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2. Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars

Bill Belichick has historically taken away an opponent's top offensive weapon, which makes it likely he'll stack the box to limit Leonard Fournette and force Bortles to beat them. Given that, there is a wide range of outcomes for Bortles. Whether it happens due to garbage-time production or the ability to make plays with his legs, Bortles has QB1 upside (and QB4 downside) on this four-game slate and is an excellent DFS tournament play. Bortles finished as a weekly top-10 fantasy quarterback over a five-game stretch from Weeks 12 to 16, but he's managed to complete just 26-of-49 combined for 301 yards and two touchdowns in the team's two playoff wins.

3. Case Keenum, Minnesota Vikings

Soon to parlay his 2017 success into a big free-agent contract, Keenum has made the most of his opportunity this season. He has thrown for 3,547 yards, 22 touchdowns and seven interceptions since taking over for Sam Bradford in Week 2. In terms of home-road splits, Keenum has been consistent: 100.1 rating, 8.06 Y/A, eight TDs at home and two INTs compared to 96.8 rating, 7.27 Y/A, 14 TDs and five INTs on the road.

4. Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles

Regardless of what Doug Pederson says, the team's playoff hopes suffered a huge blow when Carson Wentz tore his ACL. As we saw last week, the Eagles will likely limit the number of pass attempts for Foles and instead rely heavily on their ground game provided the game stays close. A three-point home underdog, the Eagles have the lowest projected total of the weekend.

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Sunday, December 31, 2017

Week 17 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Yanotchko)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are Dan Yanotchko's Week 17 NFL picks against the spread:

Indianapolis Colts -6 over Houston Texans (3 units)

Usually in these Week 17 games, I am looking for the teams that really need the win going up against teams that have their car engines running in the parking lot. This game just really boils down to who Indianapolis has to line up, versus who the Texans do not. The Texans have been decimated by the injury bug this year, and they will sideline their All-World wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins for the rest of the year. For an offense that can't get anything really going under T.J. Yates, they are missing the only real offensive threat. The Texans have also been really bad against the pass as they allow 246 yards per game and 29 touchdowns on the year. This will be one final send off in a positive way for Colts coach Chuck Pagano, as I don't see Houston bringing much offense to bear.

Buffalo Bills -2.5 over Miami Dolphins (3 units)

In yet another just-have-to-have-it game, the Bills need this win to have any hope of making the playoffs. The Dolphins cannot make the playoffs, Jay Cutler is headed for the broadcast booth, and it just seems to me that Buffalo will be the desperate team here. The Bills will be able to exploit a weak Miami secondary that allows 228 yards passing per game, and 25 touchdowns per year through the air. Also they will be able to control the clock with LeSean McCoy, as the Miami rush defense allows 109 yards per game and 4.1 yards per carry. Even though it may be hard for a cold-weather team to play in Miami in December, the Bills just need this game more.

New Orleans Saints -5.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3 units)

In yet another have-to-have-it game, the Saints get to finish up against a disappointing Buccaneers team that should have challenged for the NFC South title this year. The good news is that the Buccaneers aren't cleaning house just yet, as they have brought back head coach Dirk Koetter for another year. The problem with Tampa Bay is that they have one of the worst defenses in the league, as they allow opposing quarterbacks 263 yards passing per game and a 67% opposing completion percentage as well. The Bucs are also very generous against the run as well, as they let opposing backs average 119 yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry. I feel that Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara and Drew Brees will just be too much to handle this week, and the Saints will use this win to secure the NFC South crown.
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Week 17 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Beazley)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are Sean Beazley's Week 17 NFL picks against the spread:

Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 over Cleveland Browns (4 units)

Let’s face it, the Steelers have no chance to wrap up home-field advantage throughout the playoffs because there is no way the Jets beat New England. The No. 2 seed is locked up, so I could see a bunch of people resting here. That being said, they will still hammer the Browns at home. Tomlin will want momentum heading into the playoffs. Steelers 30, Browns 17.

New England Patriots -15 over New York Jets (4 units)

This game won’t be close. I believe the Pats will have this covered by mid way through the 2nd quarter. I love Tom Brady this week for DFS as well. I think he has sneaky massive upside. Pats 44, Jets 16.

Tennessee Titans -2.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars (3 units)

As a Titans fan, a loss here would not be so bad. The team would collapse in missing the playoffs, and it could likely be the end of the Mike Mularkey era, which would be a godsend. With the amount of weapons this offense has, this team should not be struggling the way it is now. The loss of DeMarco Murray is huge, as it finally gives Derrick Henry a chance to shine. I think the Titans are able to pull this one off in an ugly low-scoring battle. Titans 17, Jags 13.
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Saturday, December 30, 2017

Week 17 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are John Trifone's Week 17 NFL picks against the spread:

Buffalo Bills -2.5 over Miami Dolphins (4 units)

Week 17 is always tricky but the Bills have everything to play for while the Dolphins have nothing to play for. The Bills are the better team anyway so even as a small road favorite, I think the extra motivation will help them get the win.

Los Angeles Chargers -7 over Oakland Raiders (4 units)

Another game with one team motivated while the other is not. The Chargers winning streak ended two weeks ago at Kansas City, but they won again last week, and still have a chance to get in the playoffs. If they don’t get in, I don’t think it will be because of a loss to Oakland. I like San Diego to win this one easily.
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Week 17 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Hanson)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are my Week 17 NFL picks against the spread:

New Orleans Saints -5.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3 units)

The Panthers and Saints head into Week 17 with identical 11-4 records and a pair of playoff berths already clinched. Who wins the division and hosts a playoff game next weekend is yet to be settled, however. Since the Saints swept the Panthers in the regular season, they would control their own destiny on Sunday with a win in Tampa.

Although Jameis Winston left the game early, the Saints took care of business against the Bucs earlier in the season with a 30-10 win at home. Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram combined for 231 yards from scrimmage in that first matchup and I expect the dynamic duo to have another big day. On the season, each back has more than 1,400 yards from scrimmage with 12 touchdowns.

- Related: Favorite Week 17 DraftKings Plays

Baltimore Ravens -9.5 over Cincinnati Bengals (2 units)

Leading the NFL in takeaways (33) and turnover differential (+17), the Ravens are playing great defense. On the other hand, the Bengals have just 13 takeaways -- only the Browns (11) have fewer. When these two teams met in the opener, the Ravens won 20-0 in Cincinnati as Andy Dalton threw a quartet of interceptions and lost a fumble. While he may not turn it over five times this week, I'm going with another team that controls their own destiny as the Ravens are in the playoffs with a win.

Seattle Seahawks -9 over Arizona Cardinals (1 unit)

Not in full control of their playoff destiny, the Seahawks need to win in order to get in. With both Seattle and Atlanta sharing identical 9-6 records and Atlanta beating Seattle earlier in the season, the Falcons get in with a win and/or Seattle loss. Playing at home with the 12th man, the Seahawks may do some scoreboard watching, but I like Russell Wilson at home in a must-win spot.

Minnesota Vikings -12 over Chicago Bears (3 units)

A win for the Vikings guarantees a first-round bye as they have a chance at something historic as no team has won the Super Bowl in their home stadium. A first-round bye would be a first step. That said, the Vikings beat the Saints and lost to the Panthers this season, so they could miss out on a first-round bye if they lose and the Panthers win the NFC South. The Vikings barely beat the Bears earlier this season (20-17), but I expect the outcome to more lopsided this time around. I'll give the 12.

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DFS Round Table: Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 17

Every week of the 2017 NFL season, our contributors will provide their favorite DraftKings play of the week and share their thoughts in our weekly DFS Round Table post.

In some cases, the play is intended for tournaments (i.e., Guaranteed Prize Pools or GPPs); in other cases, it's for cash games (e.g., head-to-heads and 50-50's). Or both.

Who is your favorite DraftKings play for Week 17?

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Brendan Donahue: Malcolm Brown, RB, Los Angeles Rams ($3,900)

I'm sticking to the theme of finding undervalued featured backs. The Rams have announced that they will sit several starters including Todd Gurley so that should mean that Brown will fill his role. While there isn't a great sample size to support Brown in a featured back role, he has had double-digit carries three times this year and has averaged over four yards per carry when given that larger role. He also gets the 31st-ranked defense against opposing RBs in the 49ers this week so at just $3,900, he is certainly someone I will have in most lineups this weekend.

Kevin Hanson: Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints ($7,900 and $7,500)

The dynamic duo of Ingram and Kamara have combined for nearly 3,000 yards from scrimmage this season and both Ingram (1,486) and Kamara (1,426) have eclipsed the 1,400-yard mark on the year. In addition, both RBs have exactly 12 touchdowns and more than 50 receptions. Controlling their own destiny for the division title, Kamara and Ingram are 1-2 in my Week 17 running back rankings and given the value plays available elsewhere, it's not too cost-prohibitive to build lineups around these studs.

John Trifone: Brandon Oliver, RB, Los Angeles Chargers ($4,000)

Obviously Week 17 we will need to monitor news much more than usual. Many good plays will likely open up later in the week, but there’s one lock play we know of early on, and that’s Brandon Oliver. Melvin Gordon is in a walking boot with a high-ankle sprain and Austin Ekelar is out for the year. The Chargers will be playing for a playoff spot and Oliver should get the vast majority of RB touches. Oliver figures to be pretty highly owned but for good reason.

[Editor's note: John submitted his pick early in the week and MG3 seems more likely to play on Saturday.]

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Sunday, December 24, 2017

Week 16 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Beazley)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are Sean Beazley's Week 16 NFL picks against the spread:

Tennessee Titans +6.5 over Los Angeles Rams (5 units)

The Titans haven’t lost at home since Week 1 vs. the Raiders. Had this game been in L.A., I would pound the other side; but not in Nashville, and not with a playoff berth on the line. I also believe Mike Mularkey is coaching for his job, as there has been a lot of backlash over decisions he and his staff (mainly OC Terry Robiske) have made. I am a homer, but I love this spot getting almost a TD. I think the Titans win outright and I will have some on the money line as well. Titans 27, Rams 23.

Jacksonville Jaguars -4.5 over San Francisco 49ers (5 units)

Jimmy G, meet a real NFL defense. If you told me that the Jags would be where they are now at the start of the season, I would have laughed in your face. This team is going to be extremely dangerous in the playoffs, especially with Blake Bortles playing well. Jaguars defense is too much. Jags 26, 49ers 16.

Cardinals vs. Giants, Over 39.5 (5 units)

This is one of my favorite games to target in GPPs this week in daily fantasy sports (DFS), especially in the late 4 PM slate as everyone will be targeting the Dallas/Seattle game. I think there are going to be a lot of points scored in this one and my bold prediction is this game goes over by 20 points. Cardinals 31, Giants 28.
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Saturday, December 23, 2017

Week 16 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Yanotchko)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are Dan Yanotchko's Week 16 NFL picks against the spread:

Seattle Seahawks +5 over Dallas Cowboys (4 units)

I am always a fan of the gotta-have-it games in Weeks 15, 16 and 17, and this game is pretty much an elimination game for a NFC Wild Card spot although both teams will still need help. The Cowboys are getting a major boost by getting Ezekiel Elliott back after his six-game suspension, and I don't think they will be thrusting him into full action with 25-plus touches here. I look for Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin to have monster games this week, as Dallas allows 230 passing yards per game and 26 touchdowns through the air. The Seahawks will be more than able to stay with Dallas, as the Cowboys secondary has been really bad this year, and I expect more of the same here. When in doubt, take the points.

Atlanta Falcons +5.5 over New Orleans Saints (3 units)

It really has been the year of the underdog, and again with the division title still up for grabs and a shot to make the playoffs, this game is everything for Atlanta. The Falcons have actually done quite well against the Saints in recent history, as they have gone 3-1 straight up in their last four matchups. The Falcons also have the ability to blunt the Saints vaunted rushing attack, as they allow 106 yards rushing per game, ninth-best in the league. Again, this is a gotta-have-it game, and even if New Orleans pulls away, the Falcons have quite the offensive firepower for the junk back-door cover. In a tight division game with Atlanta needing this win in the worst way, give me the 5.5.

Jacksonville Jaguars -4.5 over San Francisco 49ers (3 units)

Everyone has been impressed with the recent resurgence of the 49ers, after they have decided to start golden boy QB Jimmy Garoppolo, and he certainly hasn't disappointed as of yet. The one problem that Jimmy G. will have this week is the best passing defense in the league coming to town. The Jaguars have been downright stingy to opposing quarterbacks this year, as they only allow 169 yards passing per game, and only 14 touchdowns as well. They also have acquired the nickname Sacksonville, as they have also compiled a league-leading 51 sacks on the year. The Jags also need this game, as they actually have a shot for a bye or the No. 2 seed. I will take them on the road, as running the football and defense always travels well.
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Week 16 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Hanson)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are my Week 16 NFL picks against the spread:

Los Angeles Chargers -6.5 over New York Jets (2 units)

Traveling across the country and playing early doesn't necessarily bode well for the Bolts, but they are clearly the better team especially with Josh McCown on IR. Philip Rivers may not have Hunter Henry, but there is no shortage of weapons for him with Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, etc.

If the playoffs were to start today, the Chargers would be out but they are only one game behind both the Titans (5th seed) and Bills (6th seed). As big underdogs on Sunday, it's possible that both the Titans and Bills lose and the Chargers all go into Week 17 with identical 8-7 records. In addition, they still have a chance at the division as the Chiefs are also 8-6. I'll give the points here in a game that matters much more to the Chargers.

Buffalo Bills +11.5 over New England Patriots (2 units)

Perhaps it's foolish to pick against Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots at home, but I think they win a game that's closer than the spread suggests. The Bills are currently in as the last seed in the AFC playoffs and a loss could allow other teams in as the Ravens are likely to win their Saturday matchup as two-TD favorites over the Colts and have an identical record. Even though the Bills will come up short in terms of an outright victory, I'll take the points here.

Saints vs. Falcons, Under 52.5 (2 units)

In a matchup between Drew Brees and Matt Ryan, there certainly could be plenty of offense. These two teams have played each other once already this month and the outcome was 20-17 in favor of Atlanta. While I expect more than 37 points, both teams rank top-10 in scoring defense as they each allow 20.1 points per game.

Washington Redskins -3.5 over Denver Broncos (1 unit)

Both teams have already been eliminated from the playoffs so I think it's easier to get home for a meaningless game on Christmas Eve when you're playing in front of your home fans compared to traveling across the country. The Broncos have played better recently with back-to-back wins over the Jets and Colts, but I don't have a ton of confidence in Denver's offense whether it's Brock Osweiler or Paxton Lynch as the starter.

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Friday, December 22, 2017

DFS Round Table: Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 16

Every week of the 2017 NFL season, our contributors will provide their favorite DraftKings play of the week and share their thoughts in our weekly DFS Round Table post.

In some cases, the play is intended for tournaments (i.e., Guaranteed Prize Pools or GPPs); in other cases, it's for cash games (e.g., head-to-heads and 50-50's). Or both.

Who is your favorite DraftKings play for Week 16?

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Brendan Donahue: Jarvis Landry, WR, Miami Dolphins ($6,300)

In a year that has been filled with inconsistent performances from most players on a weekly basis, one of the most consistent players on the year has been Jarvis Landry. He has scored double digits on DraftKings every week except for one. In that week, he even had 12 targets but managed only 33 yards as his team was shut out by the Ravens. This week he gets the Chiefs who have given up the most fantasy points to opposing WRs so he should have a rather high floor this week along with high upside.

John Trifone: Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers ($6,400)

CMac is coming off a good game, and I expect he’ll build on that this week with a soft matchup against the Tampa defense. Carolina is a big home favorite and McCaffrey should get some solid usage. I like his upside a lot here and his price tag is very reasonable given his floor and his ceiling.

Dan Yanotchko: Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers ($6,400)

McCaffrey has an excellent matchup against the Buccaneers. McCaffrey's splits have been decent over the last four as he’s averaged 46 yards rushing and 40 yards receiving with 16 receptions and two touchdowns. He gets a Bucs defense that allows opposing rushers 119.6 yards per game, 4.4 yards per carry, and 15 touchdowns on the year. Carolina will lean on him heavily.

Kevin Hanson: JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers ($6,400)

Smith-Schuster has scored 20-plus DK points in three of his last five games including Sunday's game against the Patriots when Antonio Brown left early with a calf injury. Favored by nearly double digits, Le'Veon Bell will be in for another typical huge game, of course. For the receivers, however, Smith-Schuster could/should see double-digit targets with 30-point upside against the Texans, one of the league's most generous defenses to opposing wide receivers this season.

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Wednesday, December 20, 2017

Week 16 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are John Trifone's Week 16 NFL picks against the spread:

Tennessee Titans +7 over Los Angeles Rams (4 Units)

I picked against the Titans last week at San Francisco and still think they are overrated. However, there’s a couple reasons I like them this week. The Rams are coming off a monstrous win at Seattle that nobody saw coming. They clearly had something to prove and got up for that game.

Traveling to Tennessee this week could be a classic let-down. Tennessee, on the other hand, suffered a devastating loss to drop to 8-6, and damaging their playoff hopes. They will play like a desperate team, and getting a full touchdown at home, I like the Titans with the points.

Cleveland Browns +6.5 over Chicago Bears (4 Units)

Chicago should not be favored by close to a touchdown against anyone in the league. The Browns are still looking for their first win of the year, and I expect them to play with some professional pride at Chicago. They’ve come close a few times. I like them to get the job done this week and get the outright win here.

Buffalo Bills +12 over New England Patriots (3 Units)

If the playoffs started today, Buffalo would be in as the sixth seed. It’s going to come down to the wire with the Bills, Titans, Ravens and Chargers vying for two spots. Beating New England on the road is a pretty tall order, and I don’t think they’ll do it, but I do think they can make it a game. I will take the Bills with the points.

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Sunday, December 17, 2017

Week 15 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Beazley)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are Sean Beazley's Week 15 NFL picks against the spread:

Buffalo Bills -3.5 over Miami Dolphins (4 units)

I love the Bills at home this week. Miami is just off a great win in prime time vs. the Patriots and this is a prime let-down spot on the road at a very difficult venue. I believe LeSean McCoy eats this week in a win; and Bills D shuts down Miami. Bills 27, Dolphins 12.

Tennessee Titans +1.5 over San Francisco 49ers (5 units)

While many will say the Titans defense is one to target, their numbers are skewed from two large blowout losses vs. Houston and Pittsburgh. With the playoffs in sight, I think Tennessee comes up big with a win. Titans 26, 49ers 17.
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Week 15 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Hanson)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are my Week 15 NFL picks against the spread:

Seattle Seahawks -1 over Los Angeles Rams (3 units)

Going into their Week 15 matchup, the Rams have a one-game lead over the Seahawks. Provided the Seahawks win, however, it's like two wins. In other words, they will own the tie-breaker over the Rams since they also won their matchup earlier this season and control their destiny in terms of the division. As well as Russell Wilson has played this season, I will take the Seahawks at home in what is essentially a pick'em.

Raiders vs. Cowboys, Over 45.5 (2 units)

Offensively, the Cowboys had struggled without Ezekiel Elliott, but they have played much better over the past two weeks by scoring 38 and 30 points, respectively. Meanwhile, Derek Carr and the Raiders have been huge disappointments this season as they go into Week 15 with a losing record and they will be without Amari Cooper. That said, both teams still rank in the top-12 in the league in yards per offensive play and the bottom half of the league in yards per play allowed. I expect both teams to be able to move the ball and put up some points, enough at least to exceed the total.

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Week 15 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are John Trifone's Week 15 NFL picks against the spread:
Buffalo Bills -3.5 over Miami Dolphins (5 units)

Miami is coming off winning their Super Bowl over the Patriots on Monday night. They now have a short week to go on the road to Buffalo, who has everything to play for to try and sneak in the playoffs. I expect a big letdown spot, or really just a return to form, from Miami, so I think the Bills cruise here.

Seattle Seahawks -1 over Los Angeles Rams (4 units)

Russell Wilson has been on fire and is likely the league MVP at this point in the season. Seattle is typically very good at home and this is a must-win for them. The Rams are a tough team but I think the Seahawks win this one by a field goal or more.

San Francisco 49ers -2 over Tennessee Titans (5 units)

It’s not often you see a three-win team favored over an eight-win team, but the line reflects how bad the Titans are, even at 8-5. I was high on them going into the year, but Marcus Mariota has been a disappointment and the play calling has not played to their strengths. Jimmy G looks like he could be the guy for San Francisco. The offense has had some trouble scoring touchdowns, but they’ve been moving the ball well. I like the Niners to win this one and give a big hit to the Titans playoff chances.
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Saturday, December 16, 2017

Week 15 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Yanotchko)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are Dan Yanotchko's Week 15 NFL picks against the spread:

New Orleans Saints -16.5 over New York Jets (4 units)

The Jets gave the 2017 campaign a valiant effort, but in the end we always knew that they are the same old Jets. The Saints really need this game badly to keep pace with the Panthers, as they have lost two of their last three games overall. The Jets have been really bad on defense this year, as they have allowed 116.9 yards per game on the ground and 4.1 yards per carry. They have also been woefully bad against the pass, as they allow 230 yards per game, and 25 touchdowns as well.

The Jets have lost Josh McCown, head coach Todd Bowles has suspended Muhammad Wilkerson a game for missing a meeting, and the Saints have one of the best offenses in the league. New Orleans has to win this one, and will pile on the points, as Bryce Petty and the Jets will be unable to move the ball at all on offense.

Tennessee Titans +2 over San Francisco 49ers (4 units)

This is another case of a team just having to the win game, as the Titans really need this one to stay with Jacksonville for the division title. The 49ers have looked great with Jimmy Garoppolo under center, and they are starting to move the ball well on offense. The only problem is that San Francisco just has not been that great on defense this year, as they allow opposing rushers 121.3 yards per game. The 49ers have also been very generous to opposing quarterbacks as well, as they allow 231 yards passing per game, 23 touchdowns, and they have only picked off opposing quarterbacks seven times. I just see too much ball control with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry, and Marcus Mariota will be able to exploit this secondary. Titans need this game, and getting points? Yes, please.

New England Patriots -3 over Pittsburgh Steelers (3 units)

This is certainly the game of the week, and perhaps the worst thing that could have happened to Pittsburgh was New England playing horribly in Miami last week, as they will be laser-focused for this game. The Patriots have great past history against the Steelers, as they have won five of their last six dating back to 2010, and they have outscored Pittsburgh 185-126 in those games. The Patriots have also beaten Pittsburgh by at least a touchdown in those games, as Tom Brady just completely shreds the Pittsburgh cover 2 defense. New England will be attacking Pittsburgh with their running backs often, as the Steelers allow 69 receptions and 609 yards passing to opposing teams' running backs. With the trio of James White, Rex Burkhead and Dion Lewis plus the return of Rob Gronkowski is too much for Pittsburgh, who allowed 269 passing yards to Joe Flacco last week. Pittsburgh is a great team, but they just don't matchup well with New England.
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Thursday, December 14, 2017

DFS Round Table: Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 15

Every week of the 2017 NFL season, our contributors will provide their favorite DraftKings play of the week and share their thoughts in our weekly DFS Round Table post.

In some cases, the play is intended for tournaments (i.e., Guaranteed Prize Pools or GPPs); in other cases, it's for cash games (e.g., head-to-heads and 50-50's). Or both.

Who is your favorite DraftKings play for Week 15?

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John Trifone: Dede Westbrook, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,100)

Westbrook is a stud, and he’s becoming more involved in the Jags offense. This week, they get a weak Houston secondary and I like Westbrook to be heavily involved. He has 27 targets over the last three weeks and caught his first touchdown pass in a big win over Seattle last week. At $5,100, he’s still underpriced when you consider both his floor and his ceiling, and I expect in the coming weeks, his price on DK will continue to rise.

Brendan Donahue: Mike Davis, RB, Seattle Seahawks ($4,000)

While I'll be the first to admit he disappointed last week, I'm going back to Mike Davis this week. He still fits the narrative that overall has been successful this season: a featured back for less than $5K. He again comes at a discounted price of just $4,000, most likely because he put up only 7.5 points last week. However, he still proved that he was the lead back with 15 carries for 66 yards; he just wasn't able to get into the end zone, which would have made it a very solid day at just $3,700. This week he gets the 29th-ranked defense to opposing fantasy running backs this season so there is a much better likelihood that he adds a touchdown to his already consistent rushing numbers.

Kevin Hanson: Kenyan Drake, RB, Miami Dolphins ($5,800)

In his past two games, Drake has been nothing less than sensational. In those two games, he has carried the ball 48 times for 234 yards and a touchdown and added eight catches for 100 yards on 11 targets. This week, Drake and the Dolphins get a defense that have allowed the second-most DK points to opposing running backs on the year.

Dan Yanotchko: Marqise Lee, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,800)

This week I like Marquise Lee against a pretty bad secondary of the Texans. Lee has emerged as the first option in Jacksonville’s passing game, as he has 27 targets, 17 receptions and a TD in his last four. The Texans give up 242 yards and 24 touchdowns, so even Blake Bortles will have a good day.

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Sunday, December 10, 2017

Week 14 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Hanson)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are my Week 14 NFL picks against the spread:

Carolina Panthers +3 over Minnesota Vikings (3 units)

Ending a four-game winning streak with a tough loss to their division-rival Saints last week, it won't get much easier this week for Cam Newton and the Panthers against the Vikings. As the Vikings look to extend their eight-game winning streak, they haven't lost since Oct. 1st. This should be a closely-fought battle and the Panthers will need to protect Cam better than they did last year (eight sacks), but one of my favorite bets is a small home 'dog so I'll take the Panthers and the points at home.

Denver Broncos +1.5 over New York Jets (3 units)

Speaking of small home 'dogs, I'm going to take the disappointing Broncos as well. Going into the season, some speculated that the Jets could go winless. Before the season began, nobody could have imagined that the Jets would be road favorites in Denver in December. Things are so bad for the Broncos that the Jets haven't been great -- losers of five of their past seven games -- and they're still favored. That said, this is a hunch that the Broncos offense puts up a few points -- enough to pull off the upset.

Indianapolis Colts +3 over Buffalo Bills (2 units)

The good news is that Nathan Peterson should play better than he did in his other start. Of course, he was benched after throwing five first-half interceptions in that one. After a 5-2 start to the season, the Bills have now lost four of five. The Colts haven't been much better as they have lost six of seven, but they have kept most of their games close recently. Not counting last week's 20-point loss, their previous four games included a win and three losses by a combined margin of eight points. I'll take the Colts and the points here.

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