Saturday, October 23, 2021

Week 7 Fantasy Football QB Start'em, Sit'em

The decision on which player to start, or sit, largely comes down to the options on your roster (and/or possibly the players available on your league's waiver wire).

As an example, Derek Carr is listed below as a "start" for Week 7. And I'd certainly be comfortable going into Week 7 with him as my starting quarterback.

Then again, Carr may be a "sit" for your team.

In other words, if you roster both Patrick Mahomes and Carr, you should start Mahomes and, in turn, bench Carr.

For a more direct answer on whether we would start Player X over Player Y, check our Week 7 Fantasy Football Rankings. Instead of making those direct comparisons, the goal here is to highlight players that we like, or dislike, for the week.

Week 7 Fantasy Football QB Start'em

Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders (vs. PHI)

Bouncing back from a couple of modest outings, Carr threw for 341 yards and two touchdowns against the Denver Broncos in Week 6. It was the fourth time in six games where Carr threw for more than 340 yards and multiple touchdowns. Entering Week 7, Carr ranks second in the NFL in passing yardage (1,946, 324.3/G).

With his bounce-back performance last week, Carr has now finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in four games this season. Carr is one of just six quarterbacks to have as many QB1 performances this season.

Based on implied totals from Vegas odds, the Raiders are projected to score the eighth-most points in Week 7. Given that there are six teams on bye including top quarterback options like Josh Allen, Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert, Carr sits inside the top 10 of my weekly fantasy quarterback rankings.

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (at LV)

In back-to-back weeks and half of his games this season, Hurts has thrown for less than 200 yards. Despite a few lackluster passing performances, Hurts has finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback in all six games played this season.

Here is the full list of QBs with six top-10 outings this season: Hurts. (End of list.)

Even if Hurts doesn't post gaudy passing statistics, his dual-threat abilities raises his fantasy floor. Among quarterbacks, only Baltimore's Lamar Jackson has more rush attempts (64) and rushing yards (392) than Hurts (53/300). Coincidentally, all five of Hurts rushing scores have occured in the weeks where he has thrown for fewer than 200 yards. In addition, Hurts has yet to run fewer than seven times in any game this season.

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans (vs. KC)

Derrick Henry has been as good as it gets this season. Tannehill has not.

Through six weeks, Tannehill has thrown for 216 yards or less in four games. In addition, he has thrown for multiple touchdowns in only one game (Week 3). Outside of the Week 3 performance (QB8), Tannehill has finished no better than QB17. Given the favorable matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, however, Tannehill has a chance to get back on track this week.

Only the Washington Football Team have allowed more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season than the Chiefs. Taylor Heinicke struggled last week, but before that, the Chiefs had allowed four consecutive top-four weekly QB finishes. In addition, the Chiefs have allowed the third-highest Y/A (8.41) this season.

Week 7 Fantasy Football QB Sit'em

Carson Wentz, Indianapolis Colts (at SF)

Wentz has 17 fantasy points in three consecutive games and five of six games this season. On the year, he has thrown nine touchdowns and only one interception. After throwing a league-high 15 interceptions last season, Wentz has a league-low 0.5 INT%.

Even though Wentz has been playing well, he has only one top-12 fantasy performance this season. While the San Francisco 49ers have faced some of the best quarterbacks in the league (Kyler Murray, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, etc.), they currently rank eighth in NFL pass defense (216.6 YPG allowed).

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears (at TB)

Only three teams -- and one of them (Los Angeles Chargers) has a bye -- have allowed more fantasy points this season than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Combine the matchup with his dual-threat upside and I will throw a few darts in DFS tournaments with Fields this weekend.

That said, the rookie has been mediocre (last week) to outright terrible (all other weeks) as a starter. Through four starts, Fields has completed 53.57% of his pass attempts for 140.5 yards per game and 6.69 yards per attempt and has thrown only two touchdowns. More disappointing from a fantasy perspective is the fact that he has run only 15 times for 68 yards during that stretch.

Given that it's incredibly difficult to run on the Buccaneers and the Bears are 11.5-point underdogs, Fields should throw it more often than last week's career high (27 attempts). While the upside is there if you trust the Bears coaching staff to put him in a better position to produce fantasy points, Fields is an upside QB2 in Week 7.

Daniel Jones, New York Giants (vs. CAR)

Leaving Week 5 early with a concussion, Jones had completed only five-of-13 pass attempts (38.5%) for 98 yards against the Dallas Cowboys. In Week 6, the former Duke Blue Devil completed 29-of-51 for 242 yards, no touchdowns and three interceptions against the Los Angeles Rams. He committed a fourth turnover with his lost fumble.

Jones was fantasy's QB6 through the first four weeks, but he will look to shake off some rough outings over the past two weeks. While I wouldn't call the matchup against the Carolina Panthers a plus matchup, they have allowed three consecutive quarterbacks to finish with 23-plus fantasy points -- Dak Prescott (27.02, QB7), Jalen Hurts (23.92, QB7) and Kirk Cousins (28.52, QB2), respectively.

As the QB15 in my rankings, Jones is best-viewed as an upside QB2 (like Fields) this week.

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