The starter for 2018, it's possible/likely that Flacco doesn't see the end of his existing contract given the team's first-round investment in Lamar Jackson. While Flacco averaged a career-low 5.7 Y/A and was 0-for-16 in 300-yard games, Flacco has had a good training camp and preseason.
Lamar Jackson
20.1
11.7
143
0.6
0.5
16.3
106
1.3
0
25.52
Compared to Michael Vick due to his rare athletic gifts and big-play ability, Jackson has the potential to be an elite fantasy quarterback once he becomes the starter. Even though the Ravens will find a way to get Jackson on the field some in his rookie season, Flacco will likely start for all of 2018 and perhaps RG3 would still become the starter if Flacco were to miss a game or two. If he does become a spot starter at some point during the season, however, he'd be an instant streaming option.
With double-digit carries in the final 12 regular-season games, Collins was just 27 yards shy of the 1,000-yard rushing mark. Although he didn't get his first reception until Week 8, he had multiple receptions in eight of the final nine games. Moreover, the second-year back had the eighth-most fantasy points among running backs from Weeks 8 to 17.
Allen now has two seasons with 500-plus rushing yards and 45-plus receptions (2015 and 2017) with a season of 49 YFS in between. Even though 39 of Allen's 46 catches came between Week 2 to 9, the (now) retired Danny Woodhead had 30 catches over the final nine games of the season. There is some PPR upside for Allen in deeper leagues, but he's otherwise not on the re-draft radar.
Sidelined all of 2017 due to injury (and suspension), Dixon is at least behind Collins for touches in Baltimore's backfield. While I thought he was underrated entering the league, Dixon has now missed more games (20) than he has played (12) since being a fourth-round pick in 2016.
As part of a 1-2 punch with Amari Cooper in Oakland, Crabtree now becomes his team's No. 1 wideout. Over the past three seasons, Crabtree has 25 touchdowns -- eight-plus in each of the past three seasons.
Since his breakout 2015 season (65/1,003/7), Brown has 60 catches for 816 yards and five touchdowns in 25 games over the past two seasons. That said, Brown has unanimously received praise from coaches and reporters throughout August and he carries plenty of upside with him in 2018 provided he can stay healthy.
Snead had just eight catches over 11 games in 2017, but he posted 69/984/3 and 72/895/4 in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Snead has a chance to vastly exceed my current projections for him.
The Ravens declined the fifth-year option on Perriman and he's not a lock to make the 53-man roster. In fact, ESPN's Jamison Hensley left Perriman off his 53-man roster projection.
Older than the typical rookie (turns 25 this month), Hurst was the first tight end off the board in the 2018 NFL Draft. As much as Flacco missed that reliable Dennis Pitta type, it's uncommon for rookie tight ends to make a significant fantasy impact. Unfortunately for Hurst, he'll likely miss the first couple of games as he had a foot procedure that will keep him sidelined for three to four weeks.
The starter for 2018, it's possible/likely that Flacco doesn't see the end of his existing contract given the team's first-round investment in Lamar Jackson. While Flacco averaged a career-low 5.7 Y/A and was 0-for-16 in 300-yard games, Flacco is reportedly having a good training camp.
Lamar Jackson
20.1
11.7
143
0.6
0.5
16.3
106
1.3
0
25.52
Compared to Michael Vick due to his rare athletic gifts and big-play ability, Jackson has the potential to be an elite fantasy quarterback once he becomes the starter. Even though the Ravens will find a way to get Jackson on the field some in his rookie season, Flacco will likely start for all of 2018 and perhaps RG3 would still become the starter if Flacco were to miss a game or two. If he does become a spot starter at some point during the season, however, he'd be an instant streaming option.
With double-digit carries in the final 12 regular-season games, Collins was just 27 yards shy of the 1,000-yard rushing mark. Although he didn't get his first reception until Week 8, he had multiple receptions in eight of the final nine games. Moreover, the second-year back had the eighth-most fantasy points among running backs from Weeks 8 to 17.
Sidelined all of 2017 due to injury (and suspension), Dixon is at least behind Collins for touches in Baltimore's backfield. While I thought he was underrated entering the league, Dixon has now missed more games (20) than he has played (12) since being a fourth-round pick in 2016.
Allen now has two seasons with 500-plus rushing yards and 45-plus receptions (2015 and 2017) with a season of 49 YFS in between. Even though 39 of Allen's 46 catches came between Week 2 to 9, the (now) retired Danny Woodhead had 30 catches over the final nine games of the season. There is some PPR upside for Allen in deeper leagues, but he's otherwise not on the re-draft radar.
As part of a 1-2 punch with Amari Cooper in Oakland, Crabtree now becomes his team's clear No. 1 wideout. Over the past three seasons, Crabtree has 25 touchdowns -- eight-plus in each of the past three seasons.
Since his breakout 2015 season (65/1,003/7), Brown has 60 catches for 816 yards and five touchdowns in 25 games over the past two seasons. If his health cooperates, there is upside for Brown in 2018.
Snead had just eight catches over 11 games in 2017, but he posted 69/984/3 and 72/895/4 in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Given the lack of productivity from Breshad Perriman and uncertainty with John Brown, Snead has a chance to vastly exceed my current projections for him.
The Ravens declined the fifth-year option on Perriman and he's not a lock to make the 53-man roster with five newcomers (Crabtree, Brown and Snead as free agents and draft picks Jordan Lasley and Jaleel Scott). And drops continue to be a problem for the 24-year-old receiver.
Older than the typical rookie (turns 25 this month), Hurst was the first tight end off the board in the 2018 NFL Draft. As much as Flacco missed that reliable Dennis Pitta type, it's uncommon for rookie tight ends to make a significant fantasy impact.
Regardless of the strategy you use to construct your roster(s), the goal of every fantasy owner should be to maximize the value they get from each individual pick.
The greater the cumulative value you accumulate throughout your draft(s), the more likely you are to win your league(s).
In this post, my goal is to identify several players that are undervalued compared to their current average draft position (ADP).
For purposes of this exercise, we used consensus ADP data from FantasyPros. Therefore, the players below may be a better value on one site compared to another. In addition, it's not an exhaustive list.
Since taking over for Drew Brees as the starter in 2006, Rivers has finished as fantasy's QB16 (or better) every season except for 2012 (QB21). Over the past five seasons, Rivers has finished as the QB6, QB12, QB11, QB14 and QB8, respectively, and he's finished as a top-12 option in eight of the past 10 seasons.
In other words, it would take a historically bad season for Rivers (by his standards) to be the equivalent of what's currently expected.
The durable starter has thrown for a minimum of 4,286 yards and 28 touchdowns in each of the past five seasons. During that span, he's averaged 4,491.4 yards and 30.6 touchdowns per season.
While the difference from QB10 (Kirk Cousins) to QB17 (Jared Goff) in my 2018 Fantasy Football QB Projections is only 3.04 fantasy points, Rivers (QB11) is only 0.44 fantasy points behind Cousins. That said, Rivers is going 51 spots, on average, after Cousins (ADP: 70).
With a fantasy cost half that of Cousins, Smith is coming off the best fantasy season (QB3) of his career. Even though that was the first top-12 fantasy season of his career, the value bar has been set low for Smith to clear.
Not only has Cousins finished as a top-eight fantasy quarterback in each of the past three seasons, Jay Gruden coordinated Cincinnati's offense in 2013 when Andy Dalton finished as the QB5. So, in other words, Gruden has coached a QB8 (or better) season in four of the past five years.
Averaging a career-high 8.0 Y/A last season, Smith threw for 4,042 yards and 26 touchdowns, both of which were career highs. One of the league's more mobile quarterbacks, Smith has rushed for 350-plus yards in three of the past five seasons with 10 rushing scores over that stretch.
Will he finish as fantasy's QB8 next season? Most likely no, but a top-12 season is certainly within reach.
Ingram is ranked only two spots (RB21) ahead of his ADP (RB23).
Projected for 163.84 (standard) fantasy points in my projections, that equates to an average of 13.65 fantasy points per game (over 12 games). Granted, the suspension reduces his overall production, but only 11 running backs are projected for more points per game than Ingram.
While durability is a concern with all running backs, Ingram has played a 16-game slate in back-to-back seasons. Rushing for 1,000-plus yards with double-digit total touchdowns in both seasons, Ingram has 154 catches over the past three seasons.
Of course, Ingram will cede work to super sophomore Alvin Kamara. And you'll have to find a replacement for him during the suspension, which isn't a big worry for me, but once he's back, you get a low-end RB1 at the cost of a low-end RB2.
Eighteen touchdowns. That's what LeGarrette Blount scored only two seasons ago.
That's not what I expect Burkhead to score, but New England's backfield will get its fair share of goal-line opportunities and I expect Burkhead to handle the majority of them.
In his first season with the Patriots, Burkhead missed six games. In the 10 games he played, he scored eight touchdowns -- five rushing and three receiving -- on 518 yards from scrimmage and 30 catches.
Perhaps first-round rookie Sony Michel will get an even larger workload than I expect, but I have Burkhead currently projected for just shy of 200 touches (194.1), 1,000 YFS (996.8) and double-digit TDs (9.7). That level of production places him as my RB24 in standard-scoring formats and RB20 in PPR formats.
Joe Mixon is a top-15 back in my rankings and Bernard may not be a starter for owners in standard-sized leagues. But he does represent value compared to his current ADP.
Mixon missed some time, but Bernard was highly productive down the stretch. In five December games, Bernard had 507 YFS, averaged 4.75 YPC with 24 receptions and two scores.
Projected for 813 YFS and 45 receptions, Gio offers late-round value as a back that could return flex value.
Who should get excited to roster a 35-year-old change-of-pace back coming off an injury-shortened season?
Perhaps nobody.
Before last season, however, Sproles finished as fantasy's RB29 in 2016. In fact, he finished as a top-36 fantasy back in five of the six seasons before last year's lost season.
Granted, he isn't getting any younger. And Jay Ajayi is set to get a much larger workload and Corey Clement is a competent complement.
The Voice's Jimmy Kempski expects Sproles offensive snaps per game to decrease. Earlier this year, however, NJ.com's Eliot Shorr-Parks wrote that "it would not be surprising at all to see Sproles near the top -- if not at the top -- of snaps" (among the team's RBs).
Not worth drafting in standard-sized formats, Sproles could still exceed value in deep(er) leagues or find himself worthy of a waiver-wire addition at some point during the season.
Coinciding with Peyton Manning's first season in Denver, Thomas broke out in 2012. From 2012 to 2014, DT exceeded 90 catches and 1,400 yards and scored double-digit touchdowns every season. Since then, his yardage totals have dropped each year — from 1,304 (2015) to 1,083 (2016) to 949 (2017).
While Case Keenum is no Peyton Manning, he does represent the team's best quarterback situation since Peyton.
Last season, Keenum had a career year as he helped both Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs turn in top-20 fantasy performances. Thielen ranked fifth in the NFL with 1,276 yards on 91 receptions.
Granted, we won't see a return to the 90/1,400/10 days we saw earlier in his career, but an 85/1,120/7 season seems reasonable with better quarterback play. Only 11 receivers are projected for more fantasy points than Thomas in my 2018 projections.
Released by the Raiders, Crabtree spent the past three seasons as the 1(b) to Amari Cooper's 1(a) in Oakland. Now with the Ravens, the veteran wideout finds himself alone atop the pecking order for targets.
The team's top three leaders in receiving -- Mike Wallace (52/748/4), Ben Watson (61/522/4) and Jeremy Maclin (40/440/3) -- are all gone from last year.
Like Thomas above, Crabtree is coming off a disappointing season (58/618/8). Crabtree isn't a guy that will stretch the field, but he should be peppered with targets as "the guy" in the offense. With 25 touchdowns -- eight or more each season -- over the past three years, only four receivers have more receiving touchdowns than Crabtree during that span.
Injuries slowed Davis all of last season. The top-five pick managed to post a very pedestrian 34/375/0 regular-season line over 11 games.
Healthy this offseason, the second-year wideout has a chance to make major strides.
Jim Wyatt recently wrote, "Davis looked smooth during the offseason, snatching the ball out of the air with ease in traffic. He went up high to make some spectacular catches. The Titans are counting on Davis to make a big leap in Year 2."
Over the past two seasons, only Larry Fitzgerald (216) and Antonio Brown (207) have more receptions than Jarvis Landry (206). Even with the volume thrown Landry's way, Stills has been highly productive.
During that two-year stint, Stills has racked up 100 catches for 1,573 yards and 15 touchdowns and has finished as a top-30 fantasy wide receiver both seasons.
With Landry now in Cleveland, there could be even more opportunities for Stills even though the Dolphins signed Danny Amendola and Albert Wilson. Either way, Stills should easily outperform his current WR51 ADP.
Lockett played a full 16-game slate last season, but he was never quite 100 percent. Another year removed from a gruesome leg injury at the end of 2016, Lockett is now 100 percent.
Finishing as fantasy's WR53 (PPR's WR56) last season, Lockett ended the year with 45 catches for 555 yards and two touchdowns and added 58 rushing yards and a return score.
With Paul Richardson now in Washington (D.C.), Jimmy Graham now in Green Bay and the uncertainty of what the Seahawks will get from Brandon Marshall, Lockett has breakout potential in 2018.
When Keenan Allen missed nearly all of 2016, Williams had a breakout season — 69 catches for 1,059 yards and seven touchdowns. With Allen playing a full 16-game slate and putting up monster numbers (102/1,393/6), Williams had a respectable, but more modest, 43/728/4 stat line.
Stronger in his first and last four games, Williams struggled a bit in the middle of the season with six of eight games of 27 yards or less from Weeks 5 to 13. That said, he still managed to finish as fantasy's WR41 (PPR's WR45).
Perhaps another Williams (Mike) emerges as the team's No. 2 receiver, but the loss of Hunter Henry (and Antonio Gates) means we should see more three-WR sets from the Chargers. Assuming good health across the board, last year's numbers could be his floor, but I think a modest improvement without Henry/Gates seems reasonable.
The starter for 2018, it's possible/likely that Flacco doesn't see the end of his existing contract given the team's first-round investment in Lamar Jackson. While I'd bet on Flacco starting all 16 games (barring injury) in 2018, a late-season switch if the team and/or Flacco struggles wouldn't be out of the question. Not only did Flacco average a career-low 5.7 Y/A, but he was 0-for-16 in 300-yard games for the first time since his rookie season.
Lamar Jackson
25.8
15
183
0.7
0.6
16.3
106
1.3
0
27.32
Compared to Michael Vick due to his rare athletic gifts and big-play ability, Jackson has the potential to be an elite fantasy quarterback once he becomes the starter. Even though the Ravens will find a way to get Jackson on the field some in his rookie season, Flacco will likely start for all of 2018 and perhaps RG3 would still become the starter if Flacco were to miss a game or two. If he does become a spot starter at some point during the season, however, he'd be an instant streaming option.
Collins had double-digit carries in the final 12 games of the season, but he didn't get his first reception until Week 8. From Week 8 to 17, the second-year back had the eighth-most fantasy points among running backs.
Sidelined all of 2017 due to injury (and suspension), Dixon is at least behind Collins for touches in Baltimore's backfield. While I thought he was underrated entering the league, Dixon has now missed more games (20) than he has played (12) since being a fourth-round pick in 2016.
Allen now has two seasons with 500-plus rushing yards and 45-plus receptions (2015 and 2017) with a season of 49 YFS in between. Even though 39 of Allen's 46 catches came between Week 2 to 9, the (now) retired Danny Woodhead had 30 catches over the final nine games of the season. There is some PPR upside for Allen, but he's not draftable in standard-sized leagues.
As part of a 1-2 punch with Amari Cooper in Oakland, Crabtree now becomes his team's clear No. 1 wideout. Over the past three seasons, Crabtree has 25 touchdowns -- eight-plus in each of the past three seasons.
Since his breakout 2015 season (65/1,003/7), Brown has 60 catches for 816 yards and five touchdowns in 25 games over the past two seasons. If his health cooperates, there is upside, but it's unclear what the Ravens will get from Brown in 2018.
Snead had just eight catches over 11 games in 2017, but he posted 69/984/3 and 72/895/4 in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Given the lack of productivity from Breshad Perriman and uncertainty with John Brown, Snead has a chance to vastly exceed my current projections for him.
The Ravens declined the fifth-year option on Perriman and he's not a lock to make the 53-man roster with five newcomers (Crabtree, Brown and Snead as free agents and draft picks Jordan Lasley and Jaleel Scott). And drops continue to be a problem for Perriman.
Older than the typical rookie (turns 25 in August), Hurst was the first tight end off the board in the 2018 NFL Draft. As much as Flacco missed that reliable Dennis Pitta type, it's uncommon for rookie tight ends to make a significant fantasy impact.
The starter for 2018, it's possible/likely that Flacco doesn't see the end of his existing contract given the team's first-round investment in Lamar Jackson. While I'd bet on Flacco starting all 16 games (barring injury) in 2018, a late-season switch if the team and/or Flacco struggles isn't out of the question. Not only did Flacco average a career-low 5.7 Y/A, but he was 0-for-16 in 300-yard games for the first time since his rookie season.
Lamar Jackson
25.8
15
183
0.7
0.6
11.8
76.7
0.9
0
21.99
Compared to Michael Vick due to his rare athletic gifts and big-play ability, Jackson has the potential to be an elite fantasy quarterback once he becomes the starter. Even though the Ravens will find a way to get Jackson on the field some in his rookie season, Flacco will likely start for all of 2018 and perhaps RG3 would still become the starter if Flacco were to miss a game or two. If he does become a spot starter at some point during the season, however, he'd be an instant streaming option.
Collins had double-digit carries in the final 12 games of the season, but he didn't get his first reception until Week 8. From Week 8 to 17, the second-year back had the eighth-most fantasy points among running backs.
Sidelined all of 2017 due to injury (and suspension), Dixon is at least behind Collins (and perhaps Javorius Allen) for touches in Baltimore's backfield. While I thought he was underrated entering the league, Dixon has now missed more games (20) than he has played (12) since being a fourth-round pick in 2016.
Javorius Allen
76.8
295.7
1.5
38.4
230.4
2.3
0.8
73.81
Allen now has two seasons with 500-plus rushing yards and 45-plus receptions (2015 and 2017) with a season of 49 YFS in between. Even though 39 of Allen's 46 catches came between Week 2 to 9, the (now) retired Danny Woodhead had 30 catches over the final nine games of the season. There is some PPR upside for Allen.
As part of a 1-2 punch with Amari Cooper in Oakland, Crabtree had three (well, two if you don't count 2017) productive seasons as a Raider. During that span, Crabtree has 25 touchdowns -- eight-plus in each of the past three seasons. The move to Baltimore means that Crabtree now becomes his team's clear No. 1 wideout.
Since his breakout 2015 season (65/1,003/7), Brown has 60 catches for 816 yards and five touchdowns in 25 games over the past two seasons. If his health cooperates, there is upside, but it's unclear what the Ravens will get from Brown in 2018.
Snead had just eight catches over 11 games in 2017, but he posted 69/984/3 and 72/895/4 in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Given the lack of productivity from Breshad Perriman and uncertainty with John Brown, Snead has a chance to vastly exceed my current projections for him.
The Ravens declined the fifth-year option on Perriman and he's not a lock to make the 53-man roster with five newcomers (Crabtree, Brown and Snead as free agents and draft picks Jordan Lasley and Jaleel Scott). And drops continue to be a problem for Perriman.
Older than the typical rookie (turns 25 in August), Hurst was the first tight end off the board in the 2018 NFL Draft. As much as Flacco missed that reliable Dennis Pitta type, it's uncommon for rookie tight ends to make a significant fantasy impact.
Crabtree also ranks 12th in receptions (232) and 20th in yardage (2,543) as well as ninth in targets (392) over that stretch.
One positive as he joins the Baltimore Ravens, Crabtree goes from being one of the top guys to the top guy.
In addition, the team's wide receivers are nearly completely turned over.
Not only did the Ravens sign Crabtree, but they also brought in John Brown and Willie Snead in free agency and drafted UCLA's Jordan Lasley (fourth round) and New Mexico State's Jaleel Scott (fifth).
Both Brown and Snead have had 900-yard campaigns in previous years, but they are each coming off disappointing seasons. Snead had just eight catches for 92 yards in 11 games last season while it's uncertain what the Ravens will get from Brown, who had 21/299/3 over 10 games last season.
With lots of new receivers on the roster, that means that most of the team's top receivers are gone.
All three of the team's leaders in receiving yards -- Mike Wallace (52/748/4), Ben Watson (61/522/4) and Jeremy Maclin (40/440/3) -- are no longer on the roster. Neither is Michael Campanaro (fourth among WRs in yards). Meanwhile, Breshad Perriman (fifth) may not be either if the Ravens decide to move on before paying him a $650,000 roster bonus due early in training camp.
Either way, the top returning wide receiver is Chris Moore (18/248/3 on 38 targets). Nearly 60 percent of the team's 2017 targets are no longer on the roster.
Crabtree missed two games in 2017 and had three-year lows in targets (101) last season. With a less talented "No. 2" receiver in Baltimore than Oakland, I project Crabtree to have close to his 2015/2016 target totals (146/145) in 2018.
Even though the Ravens used the last pick of the first round on former Heisman winner Lamar Jackson, I expect Joe Flacco to start the entire 2018 season. If Flacco and the offense struggles, an in-season switch to a rookie quarterback could lead to even more conservative play calling and more weekly inconsistency out of the passing game overall.
Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule
Based on the fantasy points allowed in 2017 of Baltimore's 2018 opponents, Crabtree and the Ravens wide receivers have the 21st-most favorable fantasy football strength of schedule. That said, no team has a more favorable schedule during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14 to 16) as Baltimore with matchups against the Chiefs, Buccaneers and Chargers. The Buccaneers (most) or Chiefs (second-most) allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers in 2017.
Below is a chart of his ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator over the past month:
Based on current average draft position data from FFC, Crabtree is being selected at the end of Round 5 and as the 25th wide receiver off the board, on average. The other wide receivers off the board before/after Crabtree include Jarvis Landry (WR22), Jordy Nelson (WR23), Golden Tate (WR24) and Sammy Watkins (WR26).
Michael Crabtree: Full Season Projections
Below you will find full-season projections for Baltimore Ravens WR Michael Crabtree for the 2018 NFL season:
Perhaps I'm completely wrong, but Crabtree is 10 spots higher in my current rankings (WR16) than his FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking (WR26). In fact, no ranking (other than mine) is higher than WR18 (as of 5/19). Currently drafted as a high-end WR3 in Round 5, Crabtree offers plenty of profit potential for fantasy owners. Ideally I'll secure two stud running backs in the first two to three rounds of fantasy drafts. If so, I'd be more than comfortable if I land Crabtree as my WR2 in Round 5.
