If the Lions are picking this high in 2022, it's possible that they could look to reset at quarterback. The Lions would only incur a $10 million cap hit if they moved on from Jared Goff next offseason. In addition, Lions general manager Brad Holmes recently said they "would have had to strongly consider" a quarterback at No. 7 if Penei Sewell weren't their highest-ranked player available.
Since 2018, two Sooner quarterbacks (Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray) have been selected first overall and another (Jalen Hurts) was a second-round pick. If there's a quarterback that will challenge Howell for the honor to be 2022's QB1, it's most likely Rattler. Based on props from Bovada, Rattler (11/2) is the early favorite to win the Heisman Trophy over Clemson's D.J. Uiagalelei (6/1), who's not eligible until the 2023 NFL Draft.
After missing all of 2020 after surgery to repair a bulging disk and congenital fusion in his spine, the draft evaluations for Ross will begin with his medicals. Provided doctors are comfortable with his outlook, he has the talent to be a first-round receiver next April and perhaps even the WR1 in 2022. In his first two seasons with the Tigers, Ross (6-4, 205) has 112 receptions for 1,865 yards (16.7 Y/R) and 17 touchdowns.
The Detroit Lions passed on the quarterback position with their first selection in the 2021 NFL draft, adding young and talented offensive tackle Penei Sewell. That likely means Jared Goff has at least one season to prove himself as the starter in Detroit.
But if the Lions are picking where odds-makers believe they will be, then the Goff experiment likely has come to a sudden, and disappointing, conclusion. If the Houston Texans indeed address the pass rush, that could give general manager Brad Holmes his choice of quarterbacks. While many point to UNC's Sam Howell or Oklahoma's Spencer Rattler as the likely QB1 right now, there is a case to be made for Liberty's Malik Willis. Allow Bruce Feldman to open the argument:
“He has the strongest arm of anybody I have ever seen.” Quincy Avery, who has worked with a bunch of NFL QBs, including Trey Lance, the guy with the biggest arm in this draft, is one of many raving about the potential of Malik Willis: https://t.co/9UAprGnnYw
There is a lot of football to be played, but Willis could certainly be the next QB riser, perhaps all the way to the Motor City. If he takes another big step forward, Willis could indeed put himself in QB1 contention.
Thanks to the Matthew Stafford trade, the Detroit Lions have a second pick in the 2022 first round. Earlier in this scenario the Lions added Malik Willis from Liberty, the intriguing quarterback who could rocket up boards if he puts together a solid 2021 season. Now they add to the receiver room later in the first round.
And yes, Alabama has another receiver to watch. After seeing Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III, DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle all get picked in the first round, John Metchie III could be the next Crimson Tide WR to crash the early selections. There is early buzz that Metchie could be the best of the group, and while in my mind it is far too early for such a statement, every time you turn on Alabama film you can see #8 working himself open. If that continues this fall, Metchie will certainly see his stock rise.
Howell has the arm strength and accuracy to warrant such a selection, but the North Carolina offense is doing him no favors in his development. His tape is pretty much littered with go-balls and RPOs. His 132 RPO dropbacks last year were 25 more than any other quarterback in the country.
30. Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
Burks is a physically imposing specimen at the position. Listed at 6-foot-3, 232 pounds, he went for 811 yards in only nine games last year, hauling in eight of his 12 contested targets.
Current Lions QB Jared Goff was part of the return in the Matthew Stafford trade in January, and a lot of what the Lions do with their two first-rounders in 2022 will depend on how he performs in his sixth NFL season. Detroit does have a potential out on Goff's contract after the 2022 season with a $10 million dead cap hit, so it could certainly be in the quarterback market next April. Slovis is 6-foot-3 with a strong arm, and his 70% completion percentage over 2019-20 ranks seventh among FBS signal-callers.
Detroit is back on the board after taking a quarterback earlier, and it gets a versatile high-impact linebacker. Before transferring to LSU, Jones played the nickel/Sam position at Clemson after Isaiah Simmons left for the NFL. He is 6-foot and 220 pounds, so his role in the NFL is still to be determined, but wherever he is, he will produce. In 10 games last season, Jones had 26 tackles, four tackles for loss, two interceptions, two passes broken up, half a sack and a forced fumble.
Harrison is still developing pass rush instincts, but a third year coached up by defensive line savant Larry Johnson should do the trick. He could test off the charts when we return to the combine in Indy.
Wilson was impressive in the slot as a sophomore -- 723 yards on 43 receptions and six touchdowns in eight games. He'll have a chance to show what he can do outside this season.
Until he proves otherwise, Jared Goff is likely the short-term option in Detroit while the organization searches for the long-term answer. It is tough to watch Howell and not see similarities to Baker Mayfield -- both positive and negative. His maturation will be interesting to track without Javonte Williams, Michael Carter, Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome, all taken in last week's draft.
The second Ohio State receiver drafted in this mock, Olave was considered a borderline first-round pick before he decided to return to Columbus for his senior year. His body type is only average, but his speed and ball skills are appealing traits for the next level.
We'll find out if Jared Goff is the answer in Detroit, and if he's not the Lions will be in the market for a franchise QB. Howell has some of the same gunslingin' traits as the last face of the franchise, Matthew Stafford.
Bolden flashed at The U in 2020, returned to school and he has a chance to be one of the top safeties in this class along with Notre Dame's Kyle Hamilton.
Detroit hit the trenches hard in the 2021 draft. Penei Sewell, Levi Onwuzurike, and Alim McNeill help solidify both sides of the line of scrimmage. Despite taking those two DTs, though, the Lions still need more help up front, particularly off the edge. Thibodeaux is a former five-star recruit who has produced 12 sacks in his first two seasons on campus, which is made slightly more impressive due to the PAC 12's 2020 season being shortened.
The Alabama WR dynasty is not over. Last season, Metchie got a ton of playing time as Henry Ruggs and Jerry Jeudy left school, in addition to Jaylen Waddle missing much of the season with injury. Like his teammates, Metchie has tremendous speed and a natural ability to track the ball down the field. Metchie, at 6-foot and 200-pounds, is a bit thicker and tougher than Waddle and DeVonta Smith, though, and offers a slightly different style of YAC.
No safeties were drafted in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft, but Hamilton will hear his named called early in 2022 and potentially inside the top-five picks. Leading Notre Dame in tackles last season, Hamilton has tremendous size and length (6-4, 219) at safety with the versatility to impact the game in a variety of ways.
After selecting Zach Wilson second overall in the 2021 draft, the Jets used their next several draft picks -- guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, receiver Elijah Moore and running back Michael Carter -- to put more pieces around their young quarterback. With Chris Herndon entering the final year of his contract and a wild card at tight end, Joe Douglas adds an upgrade with the consensus top tight end in the upcoming draft. Wydermyer has 78 catches for 953 yards and 12 touchdowns over his first two seasons.
Derek Stingley Jr. is widely expected to be the first cornerback taken in the next draft, but the title of CB2 is something of a debate at the moment. A player that could propel himself into that spot -- and into the top of the 2022 NFL draft -- is Florida cornerback Kaiir Elam. Elam was named to the All-SEC First-Team by the conference's coaches, and notched two interceptions last season. With another great campaign he could fly up boards in the fall.
The New York Jets are now on the clock again, thanks to the Jamal Adams trade. Having addressed a number of different positions over the first two rounds of the 2021 NFL draft -- and having added cornerback Kaiir Elam earlier in this scenario -- they turn to the tight end position.
Jalen Wydermyer has caught 78 passes for 953 yards and 12 touchdowns over the past two seasons, and in just ten games a year ago he caught 46 passes for 506 yards and six touchdowns. He was names a Second-Team All-SEC performer last season, as well as a finalist for the John Mackey Award, given to the best tight end in the nation. As the football world starts to look for the "next Kyle Pitts," Wydermyer is a name to watch.
Stingley led the FBS in coverage grade as a true freshman in 2019 before taking a bit of a step back in an injury-plagued 2020 campaign. He's got the size, length and speed -- he ran a 4.3-second 40 in high school -- that you want at the position.
Enagbare broke out as a junior in 2020, putting up an 89.2 pass-rushing grade in eight games. He probably would have been a Day 2 pick this year had he declared, but he returned to try to build on that for a full season. At 6-foot-4, 270 pounds, Enagbare has the frame everyone is looking for at the position early on in the draft.
Let's keep building this Jets offensive line around new quarterback Zach Wilson. Cross, a 6-foot-5, 305-pound redshirt sophomore, started 10 games for the Bulldogs in 2020. With Cross and Mekhi Becton bookending the line -- which now also includes Alijah Vera-Tucker on the inside -- Wilson could have time to create on throws downfield.
We got the Jets a lineman earlier in Round 1, so let's now add a big 6-foot-6, 268-pound defensive end with a lot of speed to come off the edge. Only Quinnen Williams -- an interior lineman -- had more than 3.5 sacks for the Jets last season. Harrison had only two in seven games last season, but look for him to get more production in 2021.
I expect Hamilton to be one of the best all-around defenders in the nation next season. He features a rare combination of size (6-foot-4, 210 pounds), athleticism and football IQ for a defensive back.
Walker would have heard his name called had he declared for the 2021 NFL Draft, but his current developmental trajectory puts him as one of the first offensive lineman off the board in 2022.
Stingley put his name on the NFL map as a true freshman playmaker for LSU's 2019 national championship team. He battled through an injury-plagued 2020 season, but the talent to be a blue-chip pro prospect is there.
South Carolina always seems to have at least one defensive lineman who will be a future NFL starter, and Enagbare is that guy to watch this fall because of his length and athletic twitch. Also known as "JJ," he became a starter last season as a junior and led the team in sacks (six) and forced fumbles (three).
Stingley has been on NFL radars since his freshman season in 2019. He was the best defensive back on that championship LSU roster that also included Kristian Fulton and Grant Delpit.
The Jets went all in on offense with the 2021 NFL draft. They wanted to ensure rookie QB Zach Wilson has the tools to succeed out of the gate. New York's defense is still a bit of a mess, as a result, and they will absolutely have to address it at the top of the 2022 draft. Stingley is a former five-star recruit who has been a stud from the moment he got to campus at LSU. Stingley is long, athletic, and has unteachable ball skills. Stingley instantly changes the makeup of the Jets defense.
Signing Carl Lawson this offseason was a step in the right direction, but the Jets still need work on the edge. Harrison, though not terribly productive in a short season in 2020 (two sacks), has great size at 6-foot-6, 265-pounds and shows surprising bend for a dude his size. Harrison was also a former top-15 recruit back in 2019. This next season could be huge for Harrison and it would not be a shock to see him actually go higher than this.
The Eagles didn't add any competition via the draft for Jalen Hurts, but they will have three first-rounders in 2022 assuming that Carson Wentz plays a minimum of 75% of offensive snaps for the Colts in 2021. If they are picking this high based on their own performance (i.e., their original pick), the Eagles brass will likely add competition next year. A transfer from Auburn, Willis is arguably the most physically-gifted quarterback in this year's draft class with a chance to put himself in the mix for the top pick come next April.
Per The Athletic's Bruce Feldman, Coastal Carolina's DC Chad Staggs said the following about Willis: "We were undefeated, we had beat BYU, I thought we were pretty good on defense. And I felt like [Willis] single-handedly beat us. We couldn't tackle him. He's got a cannon. From a true physical ability thing, he was special."
Not only is Brandon Graham 33 years old, but Derek Barnett is scheduled to play the 2021 season on the fifth-year option. If the former five-star recruit is able to take a major step forward in his third season, he has the tools and athleticism to follow in the footsteps of recent Buckeye edge defenders to become a high draft pick.
The conditional 2022 second-round pick sent to the Eagles becomes a first-rounder as long as Carson Wentz plays at least 75% of the offensive snaps in 2021. Barring an injury, it's a near lock that the Eagles will own Indy's pick in 2022.
Both Jaycee Horn and Patrick Surtain II were off the board before the Eagles were on the clock in 2021 and the team drafted Zech McPhearson in the fourth round, but I could see the team using one of their first-rounders on the position in 2022. A five-star recruit, Booth has outstanding ball skills (see below) and if he plays with more consistency, he should hear his name called on Day 1.
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Andrew Booth with an unbelievable one-handed interception!
Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler stepped into the starting lineup after Jalen Hurts moved on to the NFL. Could a similar situation play out in Philadelphia? The Eagles made moves to build around Hurts in this past draft, trading up for wide receiver DeVonta Smith. But if the Eagles are picking this early, it might mean that the organization will be in the QB market next spring. Rattler needs to calm his feet in the pocket and not play so frenetically, but with a step forward this season he might challenge for that QB1 spot in the draft.
16. Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
Cincinnati cornerback Ahmad Gardner burst onto the national stage as a true freshman in 2019, securing a Pick-Six in Cincinnati's upset win over UCF, and it was Gardner's touchdown that was the different. He added a second Pick-Six later that year against ECU. He earned a starting job by the end of the season, and held down that role for the Bearcats in 2020. Last season he ranked second in the ACC with nine pass breakups, and tied teammate Coby Bryant for fourth in the conference with three interceptions. He might be a dark-horse candidate for the first round at this point, but he is certainly someone that could play himself into the mix with a solid junior season.
This one is obviously a massive projection, as he's only taken 95 career dropbacks. Jones is one of the best dual threats in the country, though, and he earned an 86.1 rushing grade on 35 carries last season.
Jackson is still only scratching the surface of what he could be for the Trojans after recording a 66.6 pass-rushing grade last season. His high-end flashes are as impressive as anyone's in this class.
20. Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
Gardner broke onto the scene with a massive true freshman campaign that saw him earn a 90.2 coverage grade and allow only 39.7% of his targets to be completed. He followed it up by allowing only 17 catches on 40 targets for 221 yards as a sophomore in 2020. He's a touch skinny but has first-round ability if he can fill out his frame.
This is another spot where the pick could go a lot of different directions based on this season. If Jalen Hurts proves he's the guy, then don't expect the Eagles to look QB. If he provides doubt, then Howell would be an excellent pick. Howell followed up his 38-TD 2019 season -- an FBS record for true freshmen -- with 30 more in 2020, and he improved his completion percentage and yards per attempt along the way.
Cornerback continues to be an issue for the Eagles, as they lack depth behind Darius Slay, especially with Avonte Maddox on an expiring contract this season. Philadelphia used a Day 3 pick on Zech McPhearson but has not invested a first-round pick in the position since drafting Lito Sheppard in 2002. Taylor-Stuart has 6-foot-2 size and speed, and I think he will have a big year in 2021. He has a lot of talent.
This pick isn't Philadelphia's just yet, but since we are projecting the Colts to make the playoffs, we'll say Carson Wentz plays 70% of the snaps this season and the Colts' second-rounder involved in the offseason trade becomes this first-round pick. After getting a cornerback a few spots earlier, the Eagles can add a big, experienced safety here. Both starters -- Anthony Harris and Rodney McLeod -- could come off the books next spring. Bolden transferred to Miami from USC two years ago, and he had a big 2020 season, making 74 tackles and tying for second in the nation with four forced fumbles.
*This conditional second-round pick -- part of the Wentz trade -- becomes a first-rounder for 2022 for the Eagles if Wentz plays 75% of the Colts' offensive snaps in 2021 or if Wentz plays 70% of the offensive snaps and the Colts make the playoffs.
Elam took a step back after an impressive freshman campaign in 2019. He'll be hard to pass on as a 6-foot-2 corner with elite ball skills if he can fine-tune his technique and become a more reliable tackler.
Jalen Hurts has a "prove it" season coming up, and if he doesn't take command of QB1, then the Eagles will likely be in position to draft a different quarterback in the top 10. If the draft were tomorrow, Willis probably isn't a first-round pick. But if he makes key improvements, scouts believe he could climb this high. Check out Bruce Feldman's recent article on his exciting talent.
19. George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue
Although he was injured during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Karlaftis was dominant as a freshman in 2019, leading the team with 17 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks. His heavy-handed attack and GPS for the football should translate well to the next level.
Unless there are glaring needs at, say, quarterback heading into the season it's hard to predict what those needs will be by next January. But the Eagles have had injuries along the O-line torpedo their chances in recent years so it's never a bad idea to upgrade the unit. Neal played guard early in his Alabama career, kicked out to right tackle last season and he'll move to left tackle in 2021.
Harrison looks the part, without question, but he'll need his production and consistency to match that to work his way into the first-round conversation.
Philly's LB situation is embarrassing. They did sign Eric Wilson this offseason, but he is really more of a coverage specialist than a legit three-down player. Harris is a former four-star recruit who earned a starting job as a freshman at Alabama. At 6-foot-2 and 232-pounds, Harris could use a couple more cheeseburgers to fill out the frame, but the speed, processing, and understanding of how to take on blockers is fantastic.
There is still a chance Andre Dillard turns things around in 2021. However, his play to this point has been poor and it's fair to think the Eagles could be thinking about replacing him. Nelson, a former three-star recruit, will have three years of starting experience in as many seasons at Miami by the time he comes out. Nelson is not the strongest or most violent OT, but the movement skills are just wonderful.
With 22 career starts at left tackle already under his belt, Walker has the length and athleticism to excel at left tackle at the next level. With David Bakhtiari manning Aaron Rodgers' (?!) blind side, however, Walker could start initially at right tackle and then eventually replace the 30-year-old (in September) Bakhtiari down the line when it's time to pass the torch.
Of course, the storylines around Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers are dominating headlines right now, but as we start thinking about the next draft cycle, wide receiver is a position the organization could look to address in 2022. Right now three of Green Bay's top receivers are set to be free agents: Davante Adams, Equanimeous St. Brown and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, which could proper receiver to the top of Green Bay's needs.
George Pickens will be a fascinating point of discussion this draft cycle. Over two seasons for the Georgia Bulldogs the WR has caught 85 passes for 1,240 yards and 14 touchdowns, and he was expected to put up huge numbers in 2021. Those expectations took a big hit when he tore the ACL in his right knee during spring practice, and while there are hopes he could still return to the field in 2021, such a goal is a long ways off. Whether he returns to the field or not, he would still be a potential first-round pick if he enters the 2022 draft.
Blaylock is a big projection at this point, as he put up only 310 yards as a freshman before tearing his ACL as a sophomore. He's an agile slot receiver at 6-foot-1, 195 pounds, with terrific ball skills.
The Packers again did not draft an offensive playmaker in Round 1, this time amid reports that QB Aaron Rodgers does not want to return. If they weren't going to target a receiver at that point, I don't know that it will ever be a priority, so I won't force it in my projections. But Green Bay still lands an impact player here, albeit on the other side of the ball. Harris started at Will linebacker last season and is a former high school wide receiver and safety. Over two seasons, he has 142 tackles, 14.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, an interception and a forced fumble.
At 6-foot-6 and 270 pounds, Harrison is straight out of central casting and will light up stopwatches at next year's scouting combine. He didn't take as big of a jump between his freshman and sophomore seasons as expected, but with another offseason working under Larry Johnson, Harrison could be a breakout star this fall.
Green started as a true freshman and has only gotten better each year. He consistently moves defensive tackles off the line of scrimmage, a trait which translates to any level.
Who knows what will happen with Green Bay's QB situation. The team needs guard help regardless, though. Green is a wide-bodied, aggressive guard for the Aggies. Green has all the movement skills, power, and violent mentality to be one of the league's better guards right away. His efforts in leading the Texas A&M line earned him second-team All-America honors. Even if Green plays tackle in 2021, which he may, that should not stop the Packers from kicking him back to guard in the pros.
The Ravens signed 33-year-old (in September) Alejandro Villanueva to start opposite Ronnie Stanley, but the team still needs a longer-term replacement for Orlando Brown. Nelson enters his true junior season as a three-year starter at left tackle, but he could become the team's starting right tackle in 2022 (or 2023). In addition, Nelson's left tackle versatility would provide insurance for the Ravens in the event that Stanley misses time in the future like he did last season.
With additions to the edges this draft cycle, as the Baltimore Ravens added Odafe Oweh and Daelin Hayes in the 2021 NFL draft, the Ravens could look to bolster the interior next draft cycle.
That could make Jordan Davis from Georgia an ideal fit. Davis does the bulk of his damage against the run, but his ability to align at both 1-technique and 3-technique could make him an intriguing option for NFL defenses. If he starts to be more of a factor attacking the passer, watch out.
While he's not quite the Bosas or Chase Young, Harrison is next in the Ohio State defensive end pipeline. The 6-foot-6, 265-pounder earned an 86.6 pass-rushing grade as a sophomore in 2020.
Despite losing Orlando Brown Jr., the Ravens' only offensive line addition in the draft was a guard in the third round (Ben Cleveland). They signed Alejandro Villanueva, but he isn't a long-term solution. The 6-foot-6, 312-pound Walker has 22 starts at left tackle in college, and the Maryland native could step into a starting role on the right side opposite Ronnie Stanley.
Linderbaum was recruited as a defensive lineman, but switched to the offensive line during bowl prep of his freshman season and has never looked back. He heads into the fall as the top center in college football.
Over the last two seasons, Salyer has lined up at left tackle, right tackle and left guard, and it will be interesting to see where he lines up as a senior. It doesn't always look pretty, but his wide base and natural power help him overwhelm defenders.
Davis is an enormous human being who can clog running lanes all day long, but he'll need to expand his pass-rush repertoire (mostly because he's only needed brute strength to beat most of the O-linemen that lined up in front of him).
A team can never be too deep in the trenches, especially not in the AFC North. Defensive linemen Calais Campbell will also see his deal expire after 2021, so it's possible the Ravens will have a legitimate hole to fill along the DL anyway. Davis was a stud for the Tigers as a freshman, ripping off 10.5 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks. An ankle injury put a damper on Davis' 2020 season a bit, however, and he was not quite able to continue his upward trajectory. Expect Davis, a powerful DT with a red-hot motor, to get back on track in 2021 with a cleaner bill of health.