Showing posts with label 2023 NFL Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2023 NFL Predictions. Show all posts

Thursday, September 7, 2023

2023 NFL Predictions: NFC East

Before the start of the season, I will post my division-by-division predictions for the 2023 NFL regular season and postseason.

Instead of projecting an outright winner and loser in all 272 regular-season games, I've assigned a win probability to each team in every game and totaled them up.

Check out our 2023 NFL Predictions page for other divisions.

With that said, here are our early NFC East projections for each team including their win total.

1. Philadelphia Eagles - Projected Wins: 10.71

Philadelphia's offense was nearly unstoppable in 2022. Jalen Hurts is an elite dual-threat talent, and he set career bests as a passer in completion percentage (66.5%), passing yards (3,701, 8.0 Y/A), touchdowns (22, 4.8%), and passer rating (101.5). For the second season in a row, he rushed for more 760-plus yards and double-digit touchdowns. Things were too easy at times, as Hurts threw only 60 (13%) of 460 pass attempts in the fourth quarter.

A.J. Brown had a career season (88/1,496/11), DeVonta Smith was even better in year two (95/1,196/7) and Dallas Goedert set career highs receptions (4.6) and yards (58.5) per game.

Although they lost Javon Hargrave, Marcus Epps and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson in free agency, they still have a loaded defense. The Eagles had a nearly perfect draft, based on consensus NFL draft grades. The Eagles continue to load up on Georgia defenders, by taking Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith in the first round (and Kelee Ringo in the fourth round) in 2023.

MORE: Philadelphia Eagles 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

2. Dallas Cowboys - Projected Wins: 9.03

With the Cowboys moving on from Kellen Moore and Mike McCarthy and Brian Schottenheimer taking over, there are some concerns for the offense. That said, adding Brandin Cooks, who has 1,000-yard seasons with four different teams, and Michael Gallup being another year removed from his torn ACL takes some pressure off of CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott. In the post-Ezekiel Elliott era, Tony Pollard takes over as the clear lead back and he's been outstanding on the touches he's handled up to this point. Over the past two seasons, Pollard has averaged 5.3 yards per carry and 9.1 yards per reception.

The Cowboys defense may be the best in the NFL, and it all starts with Micah Parsons. The 2021 first-round pick is already an All-Pro (times two) and he has 26.5 sacks and six forced fumbles through 33 games. Dan Quinn is as good as it gets among defensive coordinators, and the team has lots of talent beyond Parsons. Adding Stephon Gilmore to start opposite Trevon Diggs really helps the secondary, Mazi Smith, who topped Bruce Feldman's Freaks List in 2022, will help stuff the run and Demarcus Lawrence is a talented second pass rusher. No team had more takeaways than the Cowboys (33) in 2022.

MORE: Dallas Cowboys 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

3. New York Giants - Projected Wins: 8.02

The Giants have brought back Daniel Jones, and he played well in 2022 given the supporting cast. The team has bolstered their group of pass catchers by adding Darren Waller, who will be the focal point in the passing game, but they have a number of healthy options at receiver including Parris Campbell, Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton and Jalin Hyatt. There was some uncertainty with Saquon Barkley after he was franchise tagged, but he's back on a one-year contract and one of the best running backs in the league.

The Giants have one of the best young left tackles in Andrew Thomas. Will G-Men be able to duplicate the successful development of another high draft pick at offensive tackle after right tackle Evan Neal struggled as a rookie? (Among 87 qualified offensive tackles, Thomas and Neal ranked fourth and 81st, respectively, in PFF grades in 2022.)

Led by nose tackle Dexter Lawrence, the Giants have a talented defensive line. Kayvon Thibodeaux, the team's other first-round pick in 2022, and Azeez Ojulari, who missed 10 games in 2022, provide the Giants with a dynamic and young pass-rush duo assuming Thibodeaux takes another step in his development and Ojulari can stay healthy in 2023.

MORE: New York Giants 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

4. Washington Commanders - Projected Wins: 7.76

One name often appearing on coaching hot seat lists is Ron Rivera, especially given the offseason change in ownership. Through three seasons, the Commanders are 22-27-1 under Rivera, and they enter 2023 with a fifth-round quarterback who has made one career start. That said, Sam Howell should have drafted before the fifth round, and he has a talented group of pass catchers around him including Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel. Unfortunately, the offensive line, which has four new starters, may be its weakness.

Washington had the third-ranked defense (304.6 YPG allowed) in 2022. It all starts up front for the Commanders defense with Jonathan Allen, Da'Ron Payne and Montez Sweat. What will the Commanders get from Chase Young, the second overall pick in 2020? The Commanders double-dipped with their first two 2023 picks on the secondary — Emmanuel Forbes at No. 16 and Jartavius Martin at No. 47 — and safety Kam Curl is an ascending talent who should be a priority for the Commanders to extend as he enters the final year of his contract.

MORE: Washington Commanders 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

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2023 NFL Predictions: NFC North

Before the start of the season, I will post my division-by-division predictions for the 2023 NFL regular season and postseason.

Instead of projecting an outright winner and loser in all 272 regular-season games, I've assigned a win probability to each team in every game and totaled them up.

Check out our 2023 NFL Predictions page for other divisions.

With that said, here are our early NFC North projections for each team including their win total.

1. Detroit Lions - Projected Wins: 9.53

Ben Johnson is a future head coach in this league, and he helped Jared Goff and the Lions operate the fourth-ranked offense (380.0 YPG) and fifth-best scoring offense (26.6) in 2022. Other than slot receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, there are question marks at receiver. Jameson Williams was drafted to be a difference maker, but he had two touches as a rookie and will miss the first six games in 2023 due to suspension. That said, the Lions have one of the league's best offensive lines and their 1-2 punch of rookie Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery is an upgrade over D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams.

The Lions ranked last in the NFL in scoring defense (392.4 YPG), and only the Cardinals (26.4) and Bears (27.2) allowed more points per game (25.1). Aidan Hutchinson is a future star, and they have a new-look secondary. In fact, one of the biggest values in the entire draft was defensive back Brian Branch. The Lions may be the favorites to win the NFC North, but their defense could ultimately be what keeps them from going deep in the postseason.

MORE: Detroit Lions 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

2. Green Bay Packers - Projected Wins: 8.3

For the first time since 1992, the Packers enter the season with a starting quarterback not named Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers. While Jordan Love has thrown only 83 career regular-season pass attempts, the team "would run through a wall for him."

Going into the season, the team's top five wide receivers and tight ends are either rookies (three) or second-year players (two). We should see a heavy dose of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon running behind one of the league's best offensive lines, when healthy, to take some pressure off as they begin the Jordan Love era.

Bad news first: The Packers defense underwhelmed compared to its talent level in 2022. The good news, however, is that the Packers definitely have the best defense within the division.

MORE: Green Bay Packers 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

3. Minnesota Vikings - Projected Wins: 8.12

The Vikings were one of five teams to win 13-plus games in 2022, yet they had a negative scoring differential (-3) on the year. None of the other four teams to win 13 or more games had a scoring differential less than +127 (Chiefs). In addition, the Vikings had 11 one-score victories. To be fair, they deserve credit for winning close games, but it also illustrates how the season could have gone quite differently as well.

Minnesota's passing offense may be even better in 2023 with the addition of first-round wide receiver Jordan Addison joining Justin Jefferson, NFL AP Offensive Player of the Year, and T.J. Hockenson, now the highest-paid tight end in the league. Kirk Cousins, a potential free agent in 2024, is definitely not in the elite tier of NFL quarterbacks, but he's a fringe top-10 quarterback and the top quarterback in the NFC North. Even with Alexander Mattison replacing Dalvin Cook, the Vikings are likely to be more committed to the run in 2023 than they were last season.

On a positive note, bringing in Brian Flores to run Minnesota's defense is a step in the right direction. But it's just a step, and it will likely take time (beyond this season) to realize the benefits of the coaching and scheme change. Both Danielle Hunter and Za'Darius Smith had double-digit sacks in 2022, but Smith is now in Cleveland and the Vikings signed Marcus Davenport to a one-year deal to fill his void. While he struggled to finish in 2022 (0.5 sacks), he had nine sacks in 2021.

MORE: Minnesota Vikings 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

4. Chicago Bears - Projected Wins: 7.7

Success in 2023 is mostly tied to the development of Justin Fields, who made in-season strides as a passer and was dominant as a runner in 2022. Only six running backs had more rushing yards than Fields (1,143), who also led the NFL in YPC (7.1), and here are his intra-season splits as a passer:

  • Games 1-7: 55.9% completion, five TDs and six INTs
  • Games 8-15: 63.7% completion, 12 TDs and five INTs

Meanwhile, adding a true No. 1 receiver in D.J. Moore and using the ninth overall pick on offensive tackle Darnell Wright will help support Fields' development.

Collectively, the NFC North defenses are relatively bad compared to other divisions. And one could argue that the Bears defense is bad relative to the other defenses in the NFC North. The Bears ranked last in the NFL in sacks (20) and in scoring defense (27.2 PPG) in 2022.

MORE: Chicago Bears 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

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2023 NFL Predictions: NFC South

Before the start of the season, I will post my division-by-division predictions for the 2023 NFL regular season and postseason.

Instead of projecting an outright winner and loser in all 272 regular-season games, I've assigned a win probability to each team in every game and totaled them up.

Check out our 2023 NFL Predictions page for other divisions.

With that said, here are our early NFC South projections for each team including their win total.

1. New Orleans Saints - Projected Wins: 8.93

Compared to Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season, all four NFC South teams have a new starter as they enter Week 1 of the 2023 season. Derek Carr is an upgrade over Andy Dalton, and Chris Olave is one of the best young receivers in the NFL. It's unclear what the team will get from Michael Thomas, who was once the most productive receiver in the NFL but has appeared in only 10 games over the past three seasons combined. Alvin Kamara is suspended for the first three games of the season, but the team will have a talented trio of backs with Kamara, Jamaal Williams, who led the NFL in rushing touchdowns last year, and rookie Kendre Miller.

The Saints have ranked top 10 in DVOA in five consecutive seasons. The 2023 version of this defense will look different up front. While Cameron Jordan is still there, the team lost four linemen that played significant snaps. The strength of the defense is its secondary with Tyrann Mathieu and Marcus Maye at safety and Marshon Lattimore, Paulson Adebo and Bradley Roby at cornerback.

MORE: New Orleans Saints 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

2. Atlanta Falcons - Projected Wins: 8.44

Desmond Ridder, who started four games as a rookie, enters 2023 atop the depth chart. In his 2022 starts, he completed 63.5% of his pass attempts for 708 yards (6.2/A) with only two touchdowns (1.7%) and no interceptions.

Over the past three years, the Falcons have used top-eight picks on skill-position players (Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Bijan Robinson). The Falcons also have one of the better offensive lines in the league, especially in terms of run blocking.

The Falcons ranked bottom six in total defense (362.1 YPG) in 2022, and they have perennially struggled to get to the quarterback (21 sacks, 31st). On the defensive side of the ball, the Falcons have added a number of veterans — Calais Campbell, David Onyemata, Jessie Bates and Bud Dupree, all of whom collectively should help this defense take a step forward.

MORE: Atlanta Falcons 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

3. Carolina Panthers - Projected Wins: 8.05

Frank Reich started the first game in Panthers history, and now he begins a new era as their head coach. In conjunction, it's the start of the Bryce Young era, and there is plenty of reason to be excited about the long-term future with the top pick from the 2023 NFL Draft under center. There may be some growing pains in the short term, as the team ranks fourth in the division in terms of talent among its skill-position players. The offensive line returns all five starters, and although they are young, they are heading in the right direction.

The Panthers have lots of young talent on the defensive side of the ball. The Panthers drafted Brian Burns, Derrick Brown and Jaycee Horn with three consecutive first-round picks from 2019 to 2021. They also drafted Shaq Thompson and Jeremy Chinn, added Frankie Luvu and Xavier Woods in recent years, all of whom ranked top four on the team in tackles in 2022. This offseason, they added Vonn Bell, Shy Tuttle and Justin Houston, all of whom will start in 2023. Long story short, the Panthers have the potential to have one of the league's best defenses in 2023.

MORE: Carolina Panthers 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Projected Wins: 6.41

With Tom Brady retired, the Buccaneers will go into the season with the quarterback depth chart as Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask. Mayfield, the No. 1 overall pick in 2018, is on his fourth roster in the past 18 months. Mayfield started a total of 10 games (six with the Panthers and four with the Rams) in 2022, and completed 60% of his pass attempts at 6.5 Y/A while throwing 10 touchdowns (3.0%) and eight interceptions (2.4%). The Bucs have a talented duo of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, who has nine consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to start his career.

Even if the Bucs are one of the league's worst teams in 2023, it won't be because of their defense. They have plenty of talent in their front seven (Shaq Barrett, Vita Vea and Lavonte David) and secondary (Jamel Dean, Carlton Davis III and Antoine Winfield Jr.). If Mayfield can play closer to his 2019 level, this team may be a pleasant surprise.

MORE: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

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2023 NFL Predictions: NFC West

Before the start of the season, I will post my division-by-division predictions for the 2023 NFL regular season and postseason.

Instead of projecting an outright winner and loser in all 272 regular-season games, I've assigned a win probability to each team in every game and totaled them up.

Check out our 2023 NFL Predictions page for other divisions.

With that said, here are our early NFC West projections for each team including their win total.

1. San Francisco 49ers - Projected Wins: 10.84

The 49ers gave up a lot to get Trey Lance in 2021, but finding a starting quarterback with the last pick of the draft is anything but irrelevant. Bad jokes aside, Brock Purdy (elbow) appears healthy heading into the season and the 49ers have a talented offensive line and an elite group of pass catchers. On a roster with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey, efficiency is all that is really needed from the quarterback to get the ball in the hands of the team's playmakers.

The 49ers have lost defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans to the Texans, but the biggest concern for the 49ers defense going into the 2023 season was the status of Nick Bosa, who was entering the final year of his contract. The two sides agreed to a massive contract extension on Wednesday, which ends his holdout. Along with Micah Parsons and Myles Garrett, Bosa is one of the NFL's three best pass rushers and the reigning NFL AP Defensive Player of the Year after recording a league-high 18.5 sacks in 2022. Not only is Bosa one of the best defensive players in the league, but the 49ers have the league's best linebacker tandem with Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw.

MORE: San Francisco 49ers 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

2. Seattle Seahawks - Projected Wins: 8.93

Who knew that trading away Russell Wilson would provide the Seahawks with a quarterback upgrade? Geno Smith was named NFL AP Comeback Player of the Year, leading the NFL in completion percentage (69.8%) and finishing fifth in passer rating (100.9). Parlaying that into a three-year, $105 million deal, Smith has even more weapons (Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zach Charbonnet) to join a talented group of skill-position players that features D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Kenneth Walker III.

The Seahawks had a strong 2022 rookie class, as that group (including both offensive tackles) started 70 games. In addition, Tariq Woolen turned out to be an absolute steal in the fifth round. While I was surprised that someone with his elite athletic profile slipped as far as he did, it was also surprising that he was as good as he was so early with a league-high six interceptions as a rookie. Linebacker Bobby Wagner returns to Seattle, and Jamal Adams is healthy, both of which will help shore up their run defense. Meanwhile, the Seahawks used the fifth pick in the draft on cornerback Devon Witherspoon to join Woolen and Coby Bryant.

MORE: Seattle Seahawks 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

3. Los Angeles Rams - Projected Wins: 6.1

The Rams drafted 14 prospects in this year's draft, and all 14 made the initial 53-man roster.

While Matthew Stafford is healthy (but struggling to connect with the rookies), it's unclear what Cooper Kupp's status will be as we enter the season following his setback with his hamstring injury. When healthy, however, there is no denying the connection between Stafford and Kupp. Two seasons ago, Kupp was the NFL AP Offensive Player of the Year after his receiving triple crown.

The Rams traded away Jalen Ramsey, and there is limited talent beyond All-World defensive tackle Aaron Donald. This question posed by the Action Network summarizes the state of the defense well: "Quick, name two Rams defenders. I'll spot you Aaron Donald, but can you come up with a second?"

MORE: Los Angeles Rams 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

4. Arizona Cardinals - Projected Wins: 5.43

It's unanimous! In our consensus NFL power rankings heading into Week 1, the Cardinals are unanimously the 32nd team across the board. PFT's Mike Florio sums it up this way: "If they could be lower than 32, they would be."

It's not all doom and gloom, depending on your perspective. The Cardinals own the rights to the Houston Texans pick as well, and preseason power rankings make the Cardinals the early favorites to have the first and second pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. If draft-eligible, both Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. would have been the first quarterback and wide receiver selected in the 2023 draft and could form a dynamic future battery for the Cardinals.

In the meantime, it's unclear when Kyler Murray (ACL, PUP) will return in 2023, if at all. Jonathan Gannon says he will return, but it's easy to see in a potential Crater for Caleb (or you choose your own tanking catch phrase) motivation to slow-walk his return. Going into the season, it will be either Clayton Tune or Joshua Dobbs who will open the season as the starter.

MORE: Arizona Cardinals 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

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2023 NFL Predictions: AFC West

Before the start of the season, I will post my division-by-division predictions for the 2023 NFL regular season and postseason.

Instead of projecting an outright winner and loser in all 272 regular-season games, I've assigned a win probability to each team in every game and totaled them up.

Check out our 2023 NFL Predictions page for other divisions.

With that said, here are our early AFC West projections for each team including their win total.

1. Kansas City Chiefs - Projected Wins: 10.7

The Chiefs are the defending champs! They have the league's best quarterback and reigning NFL MVP, and one of the best coaches of all time.

Two big challenges could be the absence of Travis Kelce and/or Chris Jones. Kelce has seven consecutive 1,000-yard seasons heading into his age-34 season. While he's been incredibly durable, the offense centers around Kelce and he's currently dealing with a hyper-extended knee. It's possible that only causes him to miss one game, if any, but his status is a reminder of how much his absence could impact the offense.

JuJu Smith-Schuster departed in free agency, and the team is likely to rely on Skyy Moore to lead the receiving corps in receiving and he posted a 22/250/0 line as a second-round rookie last year. The Chiefs also have one of the league's best offensive lines — an elite interior line returns and will be joined by newcomers Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor to play tackle.

Meanwhile, Jones was a 2022 AP First-Team All-Pro selection and had a dominant season with 15.5 sacks, the second time of his career with exactly 15.5 sacks). Per PFF, he led all interior defenders with 77 total pressures last season, and the next closest was Dexter Lawrence (63). The Chiefs will have a mediocre defense for as long as Jones continues his holdout.

MORE: Kansas City Chiefs 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

2. Los Angeles Chargers - Projected Wins: 8.96

The Chargers won 10 games in 2022, but only one of those wins came against an opponent that finished with a winning record (Miami), who is also their Week 1 opponent.

The offense will be one of the best in the league. Through the first 49 games of a career, only Patrick Mahomes (15,092) has thrown for more yards than Justin Herbert (14,089), per Stathead. Through his first three seasons, he has posted a 94-to-35 TD-to-INT ratio. With Kellen Moore taking over the offense, however, we should see a version of Herbert that pushes the ball down the field more often. If the receiving corps stays healthy, the Chargers have a talented group of pass catchers with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, Quentin Johnston, etc. Meanwhile, Jamaree Salyer played well last year at left tackle, but the offensive will be much better with a healthy Rashawn Slater back from injury.

The Chargers ranked middle of the pack in sacks (40) and interceptions (14) in 2022, while starters Joey Bosa and J.C. Jackson both missed 12 games last season. In addition, safety Derwin James missed three games. The defense allowed a league-worst 5.4 yards per carry, but season-ending injuries to Austin Johnson and Otito Ogbonnia contributed to that disappointing result. If the Chargers get better health from their stars on defense, 2023 should look much different than 2022 did.

MORE: Los Angeles Chargers 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

3. Denver Broncos - Projected Wins: 7.63

Bringing in Sean Payton should lead to an overall improvement in efficiency and production for Russell Wilson and the offense in general. The team invested heavily in the offensive line this offseason, giving massive contracts to Mike McGlinchey and Ben Powers. Unfortunately, Tim Patrick is out for the season (again!), and Jerry Jeudy is currently dealing with a hamstring injury.

When at full strength, however, Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and second-rounder Marvin Mims provide Wilson with a talented trio.

Per Football Outsiders, the Broncos had the most Adjusted Games Lost to injuries in 2022. Despite that, the Broncos ranked sixth in the NFL in 2022 in yards allowed per play (5.04). They earned the second-best coverage grade, per PFF, and Denver has one of the league's best young cornerbacks (Patrick Surtain II) and safeties (Justin Simmons).

MORE: Denver Broncos 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

4. Las Vegas Raiders - Projected Wins: 7.03

Replacing Derek Carr with Jimmy Garoppolo is not an upgrade, and he has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career. Davante Adams, who turns 31 in December, is coming off one of his best seasons (100/1,516/14), and he now has double-digit touchdowns in six of the past seven seasons. Contract differences aside, Josh Jacobs is back with the Raiders after last season's rushing title.

Maxx Crosby led all edge defenders in snaps played (1,082) in 2022, and he is one of the league's most underrated talents. Crosby is one of only two edge defenders to post an 80-plus grade as a pass rusher and run defender in 2022, according to PFF. The addition of first-rounder Tyree Wilson will give a boost to the team's pass rush, but they have one of the league's worst secondaries and have to play four games against Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. Meanwhile, no team recorded fewer takeaways than the Raiders (13) in 2022.

On a positive note, nine of the 11 games the Raiders lost last season were one-score games.

MORE: Las Vegas Raiders 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

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2023 NFL Predictions: AFC South

Before the start of the season, I will post my division-by-division predictions for the 2023 NFL regular season and postseason.

Instead of projecting an outright winner and loser in all 272 regular-season games, I've assigned a win probability to each team in every game and totaled them up.

Check out our 2023 NFL Predictions page for other divisions.

With that said, here are our early AFC South projections for each team including their win total.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - Projected Wins: 9.51

The Jaguars have the fewest wins (49) over the past decade, but they are also reigning AFC South champs. Heading into 2023, things look even better for the defending champions.

While Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick in 2021, had to endure (read: waste) a season with Urban Meyer, he made tremendous strides within the 2022 season. Doug Pederson was head coach of Philadelphia from 2016, the year the Eagles drafted Carson Wentz, until 2020, and Wentz had an MVP-caliber season (third in MVP voting despite three missed games) in their second year together. Back to Lawrence, here were his splits:

  • Weeks 1-8: 62.5% completion rate, 6.6 Y/A and a 10-to-six TD-INT ratio
  • Weeks 9-18: 69.7% completion rate, 7.4 Y/A and a 15-to-two TD-INT ratio
All of the top weapons (Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram) are back, and Calvin Ridley (90/1374/9 in last full season) replaces Marvin Jones.

The Jaguars have nearly doubled their sack total over the past two years (18 in 2020 to 35 in 2022), but nobody will compare this iteration of Jacksonville's defense with the 2017 "Sacksonville" version (55 sacks). That said, Travon Walker, the first overall pick in 2022, could make significant strides in his second season and Josh Allen's 68 QB pressures (per PFF) were 10th-most in the NFL in 2022. Meanwhile, Tyson Campbell has developed into one of the best young cornerbacks in the league.

While their offense will pace the team, they should be able to go deep into the playoffs with continued development of their young players on defense.

MORE: Jacksonville Jaguars 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

2. Tennessee Titans - Projected Wins: 7.74

Adding DeAndre Hopkins to a group of pass catchers that includes Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo, two potential breakout candidates, takes some pressure off workhorse back Derrick Henry. Per PFF, Okonkwo led all qualified tight ends in yards per route run (2.61) in 2022. And even though the Titans used their first-round pick on Northwestern's Peter Skoronski and signed former first-rounder Andre Dillard in free agency to play left tackle, Tennessee's biggest weakness is their offensive line.

The Titans led the NFL in run defense (76.9 YPG, 3.35 YPC), but they ranked last in the league in pass defense (274.8 YPG). Jeffery Simmons is one of the best interior defensive lineman in the league, and the Titans will get Harold Landry III back from a torn ACL.

The Titans benefit from playing four division games against the Texans and Colts (and their rookie quarterbacks). Mike Vrabel is one of the best coaches in the NFL, and it's possible that they could end up with a winning record in a bad AFC South at least in part based on their opponents.

MORE: Tennessee Titans 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

3. Indianapolis Colts - Projected Wins: 7.34

If he's not the best, Jonathan Taylor is certainly one of the best running backs in the NFL. The situation between Taylor and the Colts (especially owner Jim Irsay) has devolved into a complete mess. Quenton Nelson has posted the worst PFF grades of his career in back-to-back seasons (69.1 and 68.4, respectively), but the team returns all five starters to a unit that should return to being a top-10 offensive line in the league. With no Taylor (at least for four games, and possibly/likely more) and a rookie under center, the offense could have lots of ups and downs in 2023.

The Colts defend the run well, but a young and inexperienced cornerback room could present some challenges on the back end. The Colts have lost a number of several players in free agency — Samson Ebukam, Yannick Ngakoue and Brandon Facyson.

MORE: Indianapolis Colts 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

4. Houston Texans - Projected Wins: 7.04

For the fourth year in a row, the Texans enter the season with a new head coach — Bill O'Brien (and then Romeo Crennel), David Culley, Lovie Smith and now DeMeco Ryans, respectively. O'Brien won double-digit games in back-to-back seasons (2018 and 2019), but the franchise has only 11 wins over the past three seasons combined.

Houston ranked bottom three in the league in both scoring and total offense in back-to-back seasons, but they drafted their quarterback of the future in Ohio State's C.J. Stroud. The offensive line could rank in the top half of the league, and the Texans will rely heavily on Dameon Pierce to take pressure off their rookie quarterback. Houston traded Brandin Cooks to the Cowboys, and the offense lacks elite playmakers in the passing game although Nico Collins has the potential for a breakout season.

Over the past three seasons, the Texans rank 31st in both total defense (19,655 yards), defensive yards per play allowed (5.95), and points allowed (1,336). That said, they traded up to add Will Anderson Jr. to bolster their pass rush, and the team's biggest strength may be its secondary.

MORE: Houston Texans 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

Check out our predictions for other divisions:

Check out more of our content:

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2023 NFL Predictions: AFC North

Before the start of the season, I will post my division-by-division predictions for the 2023 NFL regular season and postseason.

Instead of projecting an outright winner and loser in all 272 regular-season games, I've assigned a win probability to each team in every game and totaled them up.

Check out our 2023 NFL Predictions page for other divisions.

With that said, here are our early AFC North projections for each team including their win total.

1. Cincinnati Bengals - Projected Wins: 10.34

The Bengals have one of the league's best offenses — top seven in scoring in back-to-back seasons — and it all begins with Joe Burrow. Although Burrow sustained a calf injury early in camp, he says he is "ready to go" for Week 1. Cincinnati has a talented trio of receivers with Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. Both Chase and Higgins eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark last season, and they are arguably the two most talented receivers in the division. Joe Mixon is back after accepting a paycut, and the team upgraded its offensive line by signing Orlando Brown Jr. in free agency. In other words, it should be business as usual for Burrow & Co.

Safeties Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell had eight of the team's 13 interceptions last season, but both departed via free agency in March. Former first-rounder Dax Hill will take on an expanded role, the team signed Nick Scott in free agency and drafted Jordan Battle in the third round. In addition, the Bengals have a talented cornerback room with Chidobe Awuzie, Cam Taylor-Britt (potential breakout candidate), Mike Hilton and second-round rookie DJ Turner. With Trey Hendrickson, DJ Reader and Logan Wilson anchoring their front-seven, the Bengals should have a strong defense in 2023.

From 1990-2020, the Bengals won only one playoff game (Wild Card round against the Houston Oilers in 1990). During that span, their playoff record was 1-8. Since then, however, they have gone deep into the postseason losing in the Super Bowl two seasons ago and in the AFC Championship Game last year.

MORE: Cincinnati Bengals 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

2. Baltimore Ravens - Projected Wins: 9.87

In terms of division runner-ups, no team has more projected wins after my game-by-game predictions than the Ravens. If they were in the AFC South, NFC North or NFC South, they'd win the division.

As long as Lamar Jackson stays healthy (after missing five games in back-to-back seasons), the offense should be electric in Todd Monken's scheme and with a vastly improved supporting cast. Mark Andrews is one of the league's top tight ends, but Demarcus Robinson (no longer on the roster) ranked second on the team in receptions (48) and receiving yards (458) in 2022. First-rounder Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham Jr. and a healthier Rashod Bateman are the best wide receiver trio of the Jackson era. Meanwhile, J.K. Dobbins has averaged 5.9 yards per carry in his career.

Baltimore ranked third in the NFL in scoring defense (18.5 PPG allowed) in 2022. The Ravens made two August signings — Ronald Darby and Jadeveon Clowney — that address two question marks on the defensive side of the ball and they did so at a cap-friendly cost. Marlon Humphrey had foot surgery mid-August and could miss some time at the start of the season. The Ravens have a long list of talented young defenders who could be poised for breakouts in 2023.

MORE: Baltimore Ravens 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

3. Pittsburgh Steelers - Projected Wins: 8.88

In a league of parity, it's remarkable that Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season since becoming head coach in 2007. Speaking of parity, however, the Steelers have won either eight or nine games in four of the past five seasons.

There is some reason for cautious optimism with the offense as Kenny Pickett heads into his second season after a strong offseason and a perfect (158.3 rating) preseason. While Najee Harris has been a volume-based but relatively ineffecient workhorse, Jaylen Warren offers some juice in the backfield and should see his role expand in 2023. The duo of Diontae Johnson and George Pickens form a talented tandem, Pat Freiermuth is a steady option over the middle, and the team has invested to improve its offensive line by signing guards Isaac Seumalo and Nate Herbig and drafting Broderick Jones in the first round.

T.J. Watt missed seven games last season. That said, he had a total of 55 sacks from 2018-21 including a league-high 22.5 sacks in 2021. Meanwhile, Alex Highsmith broke out with a team-high 14.5 sacks, and Cameron Heyward added 10.5 sacks. In addition, the Steelers have a top-three safety on the back end with Minkah Fitzpatrick.

Assuming their health cooperates, the defense will be one of the best in the NFL. Depending on how big of a step forward Pickett takes will determine their success in 2023.

MORE: Pittsburgh Steelers 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

4. Cleveland Browns - Projected Wins: 8.55

If we were power ranking projected fourth-place finishers, the Browns would be the clear No. 1 seed. In fact, their projected win total is 16th, which puts them in the top half of the league. That's probably not much consolation, but I think it's fair to say that they have the potential to exceed these baseline projections and make the playoffs in 2023.

Deshaun Watson doesn't need to lead the NFL in passing yards (4,823, 8.9/A) while throwing 33 touchdowns to only seven interceptions like he did in 2020, but much of Cleveland's 2023 success will be determined by how closely his play resembles his pre-2021 version. The Browns have arguably the league's best pure runner in Nick Chubb, who has averaged 5.2 YPC over his career. Amari Cooper had the sixth 1,000-yard season of his career in 2022, and Elijah Moore is a popular breakout pick for Cleveland's offense.

Pairing new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz with all-world edge rusher Myles Garrett should (further) terrify opposing offensive tackles. Cleveland traded for Za'Darius Smith in May and signed Obo Okoronkwo in free agency to boost their pass rush. (Garrett has 16 sacks in back-to-back seasons, but the next closest teammate last year had just three sacks.) As noted by ESPN's Jake Trotter, Garrett has had to face the highest double-team rate (25.3%) among edge rushers over the past three years. While Denzel Ward had a down year, the team has a couple of talented young cornerbacks (Martin Emerson and Greg Newsome II) and Cleveland has a top 10 secondary in the NFL.

MORE: Cleveland Browns 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

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