Aaron Rodgers: After winning back-to-back NFL MVP awards in 2020 and 2021, Rodgers numbers (without Davante Adams) were well below his career averages across the board in 2022 — 64.6% (65.3% career average), 4.8 TD% (6.2%), 2.2 INT% (1.4%), 6.8 Y/A (7.7) and 91.1 passer rating (103.6). Regardless of how long the next era of his career lasts, Rodgers joins a Jets team that has a better supporting cast than he had last year in Green Bay.
Breece Hall: Before Hall tore his ACL, his NFL career was off to a great start. The rookie from Iowa State averaged 5.8 yards per carry and 11.5 yards per reception through seven games. His workload had jumped considerably in Weeks 4-6 (61 touches) from Weeks 1-3 (34). Who knows how good his rookie season would have been if the injury hadn't happened? There are lots of reasons for fantasy managers to be excited about Hall's long-term outlook, but it wouldn't be a shock if he starts the 2023 season slowly, especially with Dalvin Cook joining the Jets on a one-year deal.
Dalvin Cook: Cook appeared in all 17 games last season, and it was the first time that played more than 14 games in a season. Now a Jet, he's no longer the clear lead back, but it's possible that he starts the season with a larger share of the workload as the Jets ease Hall back from injury.
Michael Carter: Carter had double-digit touches in eight of the first nine games last season, but he had only 28 touches — 15 carries for 32 yards and 13 catches for 79 yards — over the final five games. The team kept him over Zonovan Knight, but his opportunities will be limited as long as both Hall and Cook are healthy.
Garrett Wilson: Despite poor quarterback play, Wilson was outstanding in 2022 as he finished with 83 receptions for 1,103 yards and four touchdowns and was named NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. More efficient quarterback play should help Wilson in his second season.
Allen Lazard: Lazard posted career highs in targets (100), receptions (60) and yards (788) last season. Although Lazard edged his Packers teammate Christian Watson in fantasy points scored last season, both of whom finished as top-36 performers, Watson outscored him on a per-game basis. While he benefits from continuing to catch passes from Aaron Rodgers, there's a clear talent gap between Garrett Wilson and Lazard.
Mecole Hardman: Hardman has the potential to have an occasional big week, but he'll be hard to trust as the team's third (or fourth?) receiver behind Wilson and Lazard (and Cobb?). He's never averaged more than 40.8 yards per game in his four seasons with Patrick Mahomes.
Tyler Conklin: Conklin followed up his breakout 2021 season (61/593/3, 87 targets) in Minnesota with nearly identical numbers (58/552/3, 87 targets) with the Jets last year. Given that the offense should be better in general in 2023, there's a chance that Conklin performs as a mid-tier TE2 once again.
Kirk Cousins: Cousins has been a fringe QB1 in his four seasons as a Viking with yearly finishes of QB13, QB15, QB11 and QB11, respectively. During that stretch, Cousins has averaged 4,097 passing yards, 31 passing touchdowns and nine interceptions per season. In the season that new head coach Kevin O'Connell and Cousins had previously spent together (2017), Cousins finished as fantasy's QB6.
Dalvin Cook: Cook has missed multiple games every season including four games in 2021, but he's one of the league's most productive workhorses when he's on the field. Over the past three seasons, the versatile back has averaged 23.0 touches and 120.9 scrimmage yards per game while scoring 36 touchdowns in 41 games.
Alexander Mattison: While he has minimal stand-alone fantasy value when Cook is active, Cook has missed multiple games in all five of his NFL seasons, as noted above. Mattison had a minimum of 21 carries, 90 rushing yards, three receptions and 34 receiving yards in the four games that Cook missed in 2021 and scored a total of four touchdowns in those games.
Justin Jefferson: Since Jefferson was drafted in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, there have been nine 1,400-yard receiving seasons. The only player with back-to-back 1,400-yard seasons the past two seasons is Jefferson, who has racked up 196 catches for 3,016 yards and 17 touchdowns combined. A case can be made that he should be ranked as fantasy's WR1 heading into his age-23 season.
Adam Thielen: Since posting back-to-back 1,200-yard campaigns in 2017 and 2018, Thielen has failed to reach the 1,000-yard mark in three straight seasons while missing 11 games during that span. On a positive note, he has scored 24 touchdowns in 28 games over the past two seasons. Thielen enters his age-32 season as a WR3 in fantasy with some upside if he can stay healthy.
Irv Smith: Before suffering a knee injury that sidelined him for all of 2021, Smith was a breakout candidate. Atop the team's depth chart, there is some breakout potential for the 24-year-old (in August) tight end heading into 2022. Undergoing thumb surgery at the beginning of August, Smith "is on track to play" in Week 1 against the Packers.
Kirk Cousins: Cousins has been a fringe QB1 in his four seasons as a Viking with yearly finishes of QB13, QB15, QB11 and QB11, respectively. During that stretch, Cousins has averaged 4,097 passing yards, 31 passing touchdowns and nine interceptions per season. In the season that new head coach Kevin O'Connell and Cousins had previously spent together (2017), Cousins finished as fantasy's QB6.
Dalvin Cook: Cook has missed multiple games every season including four games in 2021, but he's one of the league's most productive workhorses when he's on the field. Over the past three seasons, the versatile back has averaged 23.0 touches and 120.9 scrimmage yards per game while scoring 36 touchdowns in 41 games.
Alexander Mattison: While he has minimal stand-alone fantasy value when Cook is active, Cook has missed multiple games in all five of his NFL seasons, as noted earlier. Mattison had a minimum of 21 carries, 90 rushing yards, three receptions and 34 receiving yards in the four games that Cook missed in 2021 and scored a total of four touchdowns in those games.
Justin Jefferson: Since Jefferson was drafted in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, there have been nine 1,400-yard receiving seasons. The only player with back-to-back 1,400-yard seasons the past two seasons is Jefferson, who has racked up 196 catches for 3,016 yards and 17 touchdowns combined. He's a top-three option heading into his age-23 season.
Adam Thielen: Since posting back-to-back 1,200-yard campaigns in 2017 and 2018, Thielen has failed to reach the 1,000-yard mark in three straight seasons while missing 11 games during that span. On a positive note, he has scored 24 touchdowns in 28 games over the past two seasons. Thielen enters his age-32 season as a WR3 in fantasy with some upside if he can stay healthy.
Irv Smith: Before suffering a knee injury that sidelined him for all of 2021, Smith was a breakout candidate. Atop the team's depth chart, there is some breakout potential for the 24-year-old (in August) tight end heading into 2022.
Kirk Cousins: Throwing 35 touchdowns and 13 interceptions (both career highs) in 2020, Cousins was especially good down the stretch. Cousins scored a minimum of 20 fantasy points in seven of his final nine games last season. Even though Stefon Diggs led the NFL in receiving, rookie Justin Jefferson (88/1,400/7) more than compensated for the 2019 version of Diggs (63/1,130/6). Given the team's run-first nature, however, Cousins remains a streaming option for those in single-QB 12-team leagues.
Dalvin Cook: Once again, Cook has missed multiple games, but he set career highs in touches (356), yards from scrimmage (1,918) and touchdowns (17) and scored the third-most fantasy points (half-PPR) among running backs. The clear lead back in one of the league's most run-heavy offenses, Cook averaged a career-high 5.0 YPC in 2020 and has a minimum of 40 catches in each of the past three seasons.
Alexander Mattison: Dalvin Cook has never played a full season and has actually missed multiple games in all four seasons. Given Cook's durabilty history and the team's run-first offensive philosophy, Mattison is a high-end handcuff.
Justin Jefferson: Jefferson exceeded all expectations in his inaugural season with 88 catches for a rookie-record 1,400 yards and seven touchdowns. Not only did the former LSU Tiger have seven 100-yard games, but he had double-digit targets in five of his final six games after doing so in only two of his first 10 games. Going forward, Jefferson is clearly the 1(a) to Adam Thielen's 1(b) in Minnesota's passing offense.
Adam Thielen: Thielen averaged only 61.7 YPG, but he scored 14 touchdowns in 2020. Only three receivers were targeted more often in the red zone than Thielen (19). While Justin Jefferson has moved ahead of him in the wide receiver pecking order, Thielen remains a strong WR2 in both real life and fantasy.
Irv Smith: Smith missed three games last season, but the second-year tight end set career highs in YPG (28.1), Y/R (12.2) and touchdowns (five). The arrow was pointing up for the third-year tight end with Kyle Rudolph in New York, but he will have meniscus surgery that is expected to "sideline him for at least the start of the regular season."
Tyler Conklin: Earlier this offseason, Mike Zimmer talked up Conklin when he said: "It's a bigger role for Tyler Conklin [this season]. He's kind of emerged as a guy that's moving upward, and with those two guys (Conklin and Smith), we have a lot of weapons there." With Smith set to have meniscus surgery, Conklin has the potential to flirt with TE1 (top-12) numbers if Smith misses most or all of the season.
Chris Herndon: Missing most of the 2019 season, Herndon played a full 16-game slate in 2020, but he was mostly a non-factor with an average receiving line of 1.9/17.9 and a total of three touchdowns. With the Vikings sending a fourth-round pick to acquire Herndon from the Jets, it's possible the Vikings expect Smith to miss a significant portion of the 2021 season.
The best way to become good at something is to practice. So, what should you do if you want to draft a better fantasy football team?
Practice, of course!
Leading up to the start of the 2021 NFL season, we will use the 2021 Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator (powered by FantasyPros) to complete fantasy football mock drafts.
We will use a variety of scoring formats -- PPR, half-PPR, standard scoring and even 2-QB leagues, league sizes and draft slots. The goal is to give you a good representation of the team that you may be able to construct given your league settings and the rationale of why we made the picks we did.
Once again, Cook has missed multiple games, but he set career highs in touches (356), yards from scrimmage (1,918) and touchdowns (17) and scored the third-most fantasy points (half-PPR) among running backs. The clear lead back in one of the league's most run-heavy offenses, Cook averaged a career-high 5.0 YPC in 2020 and has a minimum of 40 catches in each of the past three seasons.
Jefferson exceeded all expectations with 88 catches for a rookie-record 1,400 yards and seven touchdowns. Not only did the former LSU Tiger have seven 100-yard games, but he had double-digit targets in five of his final six games after doing so in only two of his first 10 games. Going forward, Jefferson should be the 1(a) to Adam Thielen's 1(b) in Minnesota's passing offense.
Waller set career highs across the board -- 107 receptions on 146 targets for 1,196 yards and nine touchdowns -- and was dominant down the stretch. Not only did Waller have a 13/200/2 game in Week 13, but he exceeded the 100-yard mark in four of his final five games of the season.
With Cam Akers (Achilles) injured and Malcolm Brown now longer in L.A., the Rams will turn to Henderson, by default, for large workloads. It's possible that they add a veteran free agent before the start of the season as Henderson is dealing with a sprained thumb, but he's expected to be ready for Week 1. That said, he has massive upside in what should be a much-improved offense with Matthew Stafford under center.
Thielen averaged only 61.7 YPG, but he scored 14 touchdowns in 2020. Only three receivers were targeted more often in the red zone than Thielen (19). While Justin Jefferson has moved ahead of him in the wide receiver pecking order, Thielen remains a strong WR2 in both real life and fantasy.
Year 1 in Carolina was generally a success for Anderson, who set career highs in targets (136), receptions (95) and yards (1,096). The free-agency departure of Curtis Samuel could help Anderson improve upon his 2020 numbers.
The former fourth-round pick out of Fordham has averaged 4.4 yards per carry and 7.2 yards per reception over his first three NFL seasons. With Kenyan Drake out and James Conner in, Edmonds' workload will almost certainly exceed the 150 touches he had in 2020. There is plenty of profit potential with getting him in the seventh round.
While I prefer Moss over Devin Singletary, a concern for both is that Josh Allen has 25 rushing touchdowns over the past three seasons. That said, if he's able to stay healthy, there is some breakout potential in his second season.
Shenault Jr. played only 10 snaps in Week 9 and then missed the following two games. Outside of those three games, the rookie had a minimum of three receptions in every game. Over the final five games of the season, he had 25 catches (on 36 targets) for 246 yards and four touchdowns and added six carries for 31 yards and he was the WR16 (half-PPR) over that stretch.
A fifth-round pick out of Tulane, Mooney had a highly productive rookie campaign (61/631/4). Earlier this offseason, coach Matt Nagy talked up Mooney by saying that he "has a rare element of speed, combined with route-running, hands and passion. And commitment."
Sustaining his season-ending knee injury in Week 11, the only quarterback to throw more pass attempts than Burrow (404, 40.4/G) through that point in the season was Tom Brady (433, 39.4/G). Burrow should rank near the top of the NFL in pass attempts in 2021. That volume makes last year's No. 1 overall pick a nice value from where he's currently available in drafts.
Dalvin Cook has never played a full season and has actually missed multiple games in all four seasons. Given Cook's durabilty history and the team's offensive philosophy, Mattison is a high-end handcuff.
Selected one pick before Justin Jefferson (88/1,400/7) in the 2020 NFL Draft, Reagor's disappointing 2020 campaign (31/391/1) became even more pronounced in comparison to Jefferson's success. Durability (five missed games) and sub-par quarterback play didn't help, but Reagor's breakout potential makes him a late-round pick to target.
If Lance isn't named the Week 1 starter, fantasy managers will look to the team's bye (Week 6) as the next logical point to potentially hand the reigns over to the rookie signal-caller. Not only is Lance making a big jump from the FCS level to the NFL, but North Dakota State played only one game in 2020. Once Lance takes over, however, the dual-threat talent has the potential to be a weekly top-10 fantasy quarterback.
The best way to become good at something is to practice. So, what should you do if you want to draft a better fantasy football team?
Practice, of course!
Leading up to the start of the 2021 NFL season, we will use the 2021 Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator (powered by FantasyPros) to complete fantasy football mock drafts.
We will use a variety of scoring formats -- PPR, half-PPR, standard scoring and even 2-QB leagues, league sizes and draft slots. The goal is to give you a good representation of the team that you may be able to construct given your league settings and the rationale of why we made the picks we did.
Once again, Cook has missed multiple games, but he set career highs in touches (356), yards from scrimmage (1,918) and touchdowns (17) and scored the second-most PPR points among running backs. The clear lead back in one of the league's most run-heavy offenses, Cook averaged a career-high 5.0 YPC and has a minimum of 40 catches in each of the past three seasons.
From Weeks 2 to 4, Prescott threw for a minimum (yes, minimum) of 450 yards in three consecutive games with a total of 11 touchdowns (eight passing and three rushing). As noted in our Dak Prescott 2021 Fantasy Football Profile, Prescott (three) had more 450-yard passing games than the rest of the league combined (two) in 2020. During that three-game stretch before getting injured, Prescott performed as the weekly QB1, QB4 and QB1, respectively. With a talented trio of wide receivers, Prescott has tremendous upside if he can stay healthy.
Ridley closed the season the same way he started it -- with 100-plus yards in four of five games. Along with Davante Adams (six) and Stefon Diggs (three), Ridley was one of three receivers to finish as a top-two weekly fantasy receiver at least three times in 2020. Ridley finished last season with 90 catches on 143 targets for 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns and is a top-four fantasy wide receiver in 2021 with Julio Jones in Tennessee.
It was a relatively disappointing season for Woods and the Rams offense in general. Woods tied a career high in receptions (90), but his receiving yardage (936) and yards from scrimmage (1,091) were three-year lows. Replacing Jared Goff with Matthew Stafford generates some optimism for all of the skill-position players.
Sustaining his season-ending knee injury in Week 11, the only quarterback to throw more pass attempts than Burrow (404, 40.4/G) through that point in the season was Tom Brady (433, 39.4/G). Burrow should rank near the top of the NFL in pass attempts in 2021. That volume makes last year's No. 1 overall pick a high-upside QB2 for this team.
With Cam Akers (Achilles) injured, the Rams will turn to Henderson, by default, for large workloads. It's possible that they add a veteran free agent before the start of the season as Henderson has dealt with his own share of injuries over the past year. That said, he has massive upside in what should be a much-improved offense with Matthew Stafford under center.
Claypool scored 11 touchdowns -- nine receiving and two rushing -- in the regular season and added two more receiving scores in the team's playoff loss to Cleveland. Re-signing JuJu Smith-Schuster to a one-year deal puts a dent into Mapletron's upside in year two, but it wouldn't surprise me if he was the team's top-producing wideout in 2021.
Even though he was the third back off the board, some teams viewed Williams as "best back in the draft." With the Broncos moving up to get in front of the Dolphins to select Williams, it's likely that he emerges as the team's lead back sooner rather than later. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if the Broncos parted ways (via trade or release) before final roster cuts. The 20-year-old back is a tackle-breaking machine.
Shenault Jr. played only 10 snaps in Week 9 and then missed the following two games. Outside of those three games, the rookie had a minimum of three receptions in every game. Over the final five games of the season, he had 25 catches (on 36 targets) for 246 yards and four touchdowns and added six carries for 31 yards and he was the WR16 (PPR) over that stretch.
It was a down year (59/843/5) for Gallup, who averaged 26.4 fewer yards per game than he did in 2019. Of course, the offense as a whole struggled without Dak Prescott and Gallup had 50-plus yards in four of five games with Prescott and in only three-of-11 games without him.
A fifth-round pick out of Tulane, Mooney had a highly productive rookie campaign (61/631/4). Earlier this offseason, coach Matt Nagy talked up Mooney by saying that he "has a rare element of speed, combined with route-running, hands and passion. And commitment." With the Bears trading Anthony Miller to the Texans, it only further boosts Mooney's outlook for 2021.
Thomas was the only tight end in the league to have a minimum of four targets in every game last season. While he was consistent throughout the season, he was especially productive down the stretch.
From Weeks 6 to 17, Thomas scored the third-most fantasy points with 58 receptions (third-most), 564 yards (third-most) and five touchdowns (tied fifth-most) amongst tight ends. Last year's breakout tight end will enter 2021 as a viable top-10 option even with the team bolstering its receiving corps via the draft and free agency.
Mostly aligning in the slot at Mississippi, Moore, the 34th-overall pick this year, broke A.J. Brown's single-season reception record last season. Moore has the talent to excel both inside and out and has generated plenty of buzz in camp.
Smith missed three games last season, but the second-year tight end set career highs in YPG (28.1), Y/R (12.2) and touchdowns (five). With Kyle Rudolph no longer on the roster, the arrow is pointing up for the third-year tight end.
Whenever/if he gets the opportunity to start, Hill will flirt with top-12 production. During his four starts last seasone, he performed as a top-12 fantasy quarterback every week.
The best way to become good at something is to practice. So, what should you do if you want to draft a better fantasy football team?
Practice, of course!
Leading up to the start of the 2021 NFL season, we will use the 2021 Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator (powered by FantasyPros) to complete fantasy football mock drafts.
We will use a variety of scoring formats -- PPR, half-PPR, standard scoring and even 2-QB leagues, league sizes and draft slots. The goal is to give you a good representation of the team that you may be able to construct given your league settings and the rationale of why we made the picks we did.
Once again, Cook has missed multiple games, but he set career highs in touches (356), yards from scrimmage (1,918) and touchdowns (17) and scored the third-most fantasy points (non-PPR) among running backs. The clear lead back in one of the league's most run-heavy offenses, Cook averaged a career-high 5.0 YPC and has a minimum of 40 catches in each of the past three seasons.
In his first season in Arizona, Hopkins tied a career high in receptions (115) and his 1,407 receiving yards were the third most of his career. Meanwhile, Stefon Diggs (166) was the only receiver with more targets than Hopkins (160). While his six touchdowns were a four-year low, Hopkins' target share gives him one of the highest floors (and ceilings) at the position.
Jefferson exceeded all expectations in his inaugural season with 88 catches for a rookie-record 1,400 yards and seven touchdowns. Not only did the former LSU Tiger have seven 100-yard games, but he had double-digit targets in five of his final six games after doing so in only two of his first 10 games. Going forward, Jefferson should be the 1(a) to Adam Thielen's 1(b) in Minnesota's passing offense.
It was a relatively disappointing season for Woods and the Rams offense in general. Woods tied a career high in receptions (90), but his receiving yardage (936) and yards from scrimmage (1,091) were three-year lows. Replacing Jared Goff with Matthew Stafford generates some optimism for all of the skill-position players.
Gaskin was off to a strong start through Week 8, but he only appeared in three games (Weeks 13, 16 and 17) after that point. Even though he missed six games, he ranked 15th among running backs in receptions (41). In addition, only three running backs had more receptions in the 10 weeks that Gaskin played.
The former seventh-round pick out of Washington has shown the ability to be highly productive and the Dolphins were unable to draft one of the top three backs in the 2021 NFL Draft. While I currently project a first-round running back to the Dolphins in my early 2022 NFL Mock Draft, Gaskin is a viable RB2 with the potential to vastly exceed his current ADP with good health.
It was a tale of two seasons for Wilson. In his first eight games, Wilson averaged 29.52 fantasy points per game and scored no fewer than 21.9. In his final eight games, he averaged only 17.08 and scored more than 21.9 only once during that span.
Despite Pete Carroll's prioritization to establish the run, Wilson has never finished worse than the QB11 (2016) and has finished as a top-six fantasy quarterback in five of the past seven seasons.
The former fourth-round pick has averaged 4.4 yards per carry and 7.2 yards per reception over his first three NFL seasons. With Kenyan Drake out and James Conner in, I believe Edmonds will operate as Arizona's RB1 (a term he hates).
Averaging a career-high 76.7 YPG, Cooks finished his first season in Houston with 81 catches for 1,150 yards and six touchdowns. From Week 5 on, Cooks had at least 59 yards in 10 of 11 games. During that 11-game span, he averaged 6.5 catches and 92 yards per game.
Deshaun Watson's uncertain status is obvious reason for concern when projecting Cooks' production, but he should be the recipient of as many targets as he can handle.
Best in standard (non-PPR) formats like this, Edwards performed as fantasy's RB28 in non-PPR in 2020. Edwards has a minimum of 133 carries, 711 yards and 5.0 YPC in all three of his NFL seasons. While J.K. Dobbins will handle the bulk of touches, Edwards should approach double-digit touches per game and has stand-alone flex value.
Reunited with his former college quarterback, Waddle (as does Fuller) provides Tagovailoa with more speed on the outside. The sixth overall pick in the draft, Waddle is electric with the ball in his hands.
A surprise first-round pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, Penny has failed to live up to his draft pedigree. On relatively limited touches, however, Penny has been efficient -- 5.1 YPC and 9.3 Y/R -- and Carson's violent running style could lead to a missed game (or several). While it's become a cliche, Penny enters 2021 in the best shape of his life.
I have Tyler Higbeeranked one spot higher than Fant, but the simulator's pick predictor feature showed a 70% probability of Fant being gone before the next pick compared to Higbee's 41%. By selecting Fant first, it increased my chances of being able to draft both Higbee and Fant. Because TE tends to be somewhat of a crapshoot, I often double-dip in the double-digit rounds to give myself an extra chance to hit on the position.
With Gerald Everett signing with Seattle and the team trading for Matthew Stafford, there is optimism for improved numbers from Higbee. Higbee's breakout month (Dec. 2019) coincided with Everett missing all but four offensive snaps during that five-game stretch (43/522/2 on 56 targets).
Meyers led the Patriots with 81 targets, 59 receptions and 729 yards in 2020. While the team added Nelson Agholor and Kendall Bourne in free agency, there's a good chance that the Meyers leads the position group in receiving once again.
The NFL season is fast approaching. Now only one day away from the preseason opener between the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers, the regular-season opener is only a little more than a month away.
Leading up to the start of the season, these rankings will be updated regularly.
If you drafted McCaffrey first overall in 2020, you likely find little solace that he was fantasy's top-scoring back over the three-week window in which he appeared (Weeks 1, 2 and 9). In those games, however, CMC handled 76 touches including 17 receptions, racked up 374 yards from scrimmage and scored six total touchdowns. All of those numbers were either first or second among running backs in that split timeframe.
Before his lost season due to injury, McCaffrey was nearly an every-snap iron man in 2019. Heading into his age-25 season, he remains the top choice for me in 2021 drafts.
Once again, Cook has missed multiple games, but he set career highs in touches (356), yards from scrimmage (1,918) and touchdowns (17) and scored the third-most fantasy points (half-PPR) among running backs. The clear lead back in one of the league's most run-heavy offenses, Cook averaged a career-high 5.0 YPC and has a minimum of 40 catches in each of the past three seasons.
If there's a concern with Henry, it's his relative lack of involvement in the passing game. That said, Henry more than compensates for his smaller role as a receiver with his dominant rushing production. Not only is he the back-to-back rushing champion coming off a 2,000-yard campaign, but Henry has led the league in rushing touchdowns in each of the past two seasons with 33 rushing scores in 31 games.
No running back scored more fantasy points in non-PPR formats, but Henry also finished second in half-PPR and third in (full) PPR as well. In other words, the limited passing-game role hasn't hurt his value much, even in leagues that reward a full point per reception. Regardless of format, Henry is a top-three option for me in 2021.
No running back scored more fantasy points in half-PPR formats than Kamara in 2020. The versatile back had exactly 81 receptions in each of his first three NFL seasons and then set a career high (83) in 2020. That said, he was on pace for a much higher career-best number before Drew Brees (ribs) missed four weeks. The only three games that Kamara failed to reach three catches came with Brees sidelined.
If the Saints utilize Taysom Hill as their starter, it would likely cap Kamara's upside and lead to more volatility in his weekly production. In 11 games with Brees, Kamara was a top-10 weekly producer in all but one game last season. In four games with Hill, Kamara posted weekly finishes (half-PPR) of RB25, RB36, RB9 and RB9, respectively.
The offense went off the tracks when Dak Prescott sustained his season-ending injury and the offensive line injuries further impacted Elliott's production. From Weeks 6 to 17, Zeke finished as a top-12 fantasy running only twice in 10 games after doing so three times in the team's first five games. Even if Tony Pollard earns a few more touches in 2021, Elliott should rank near the top of the league in workload. In fact, only three backs had more than six games last season with at least 20 touches -- Derrick Henry (14), Dalvin Cook (11) and Elliott (11).
One year after leading the NFL in touchdowns (19, 2019), Jones averaged a career-high 5.89 yards per touch for the league's top-scoring offense. Even though he missed two games and scored eight fewer touchdowns in 2020, he has finished as a top-five fantasy running back in consecutive seasons.
Missing a significant chunk of time due to injury and playing at less than 100 percent when returning to the field, Ekeler averaged 5.5 yards per touch and scored only three touchdowns, both of which were career lows. With Joe Lombardi coming over from New Orleans to run the offense, Ekeler's immense upside as a receiver makes him a top-10 back across all formats.
As a rookie, Barkley was about as good as it gets. Technically, Todd Gurley was better (fantasy's RB1), but Barkley was the RB2 in his rookie season and led the NFL in scrimmage yards (2,028), scored 15 touchdowns and hauled in 91 catches. Injuries have kept him out of 17 of the team's past 19 games, but if his health cooperates in 2021, he has the skill set to finish as one of the top two or three backs in the league.
Over his final seven games of the season including a playoff loss, Taylor handled a massive 156 touches, racked up 921 yards and scored nine total touchdowns. Excluding that playoff appearance, Taylor ranked top four in the NFL in touches, YFS, touchdowns and half-PPR fantasy points from Week 11 on. Running behind one of the league's best offensive lines, Taylor carries plenty of momentum with him into 2021 even though the Colts re-signed Marlon Mack.
Given the Wentz injury, it's possible that the Colts lean even more heavily on Taylor and the rushing attack earlier in the season than previously anticipated.
Mixon appeared in only six games in 2020 and he has now missed multiple games in three of his four NFL seasons. That said, Mixon had a minimum of 19 touches in the six games in which he appeared in 2020. Through Week 6, Mixon had more carries (119) than all running backs not named Derrick Henry (123) and was top 10 among running backs in targets (26). With Giovani Bernard now in Tampa, Mixon should be even more involved as a receiver.
The all-time career rushing leader in Alabama history, Harris rushed for 1,466 yards and 26 touchdowns and added 43 receptions for 425 yards and four more scores last season. With few holes in his game, Harris will step in as a Week 1 workhorse. Given the team's propensity to feature its lead back, Harris has the chance to vastly exceed his ADP.
Despite missing four games, Chubb still finished as fantasy's RB9 in 2020. Chubb has finished second and third in rushing yards per game in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Through his first three seasons, Chubb has never averaged fewer than five yards per carry in a season.
Even with the league's best No. 2 back (Kareem Hunt) on the roster, Chubb has averaged 18.05 touches per game since Hunt returned from his 2019 suspension. Only four teams in the league had a higher rushing play percentage than the Browns in Kevin Stefanski's first year as head coach.
Before suffering a turf toe injury early in his Week 13 matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Gibson had a five-game stretch where he performed as fantasy's RB5, RB11, RB8, RB7 and RB2, respectively. Even without adjusting for Washington's Week 8 bye, only Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry scored more fantasy points during that stretch. Gibson has tremendous upside in his second season and coach Ron Rivera recently said of Gibson "I expect he can make a big jump."
Few teams want to "establish the run" more than the Seahawks so returning to Seattle on a two-year deal was Carson's ideal landing spot. Even though the Seahawks let Russell Wilson "cook" in the first half of the year, Carson performed as a weekly fantasy RB13 or better in four of the team's five games before their Week 6 bye. In fact, he was a top-five performer from Weeks 1 to 5. Coming out of the bye, Carson sustained a foot injury in Week 7 that kept him out of several games. Carson's physical running style lends itself to a greater propensity to get banged up, but he will likely be undervalued in fantasy drafts this summer.
Given how productive a third-round rookie (Kareem Hunt) had been in Andy Reid's offense just a few seasons ago (2017), Edwards-Helaire, the only first-round running back in the 2020 NFL Draft, was a relative disappointment despite a couple of big performances in the first half of the season. Even so, he has the skill set and draft pedigree to be much more productive in Kansas City's high-powered offense this season than he was as a rookie and could turn out to be a draft-day bargain.
The Ravens have had a 1,000-yard rusher in back-to-back seasons. Unfortunately (for the team's running backs), that player is quarterback Lamar Jackson. For a team that loves to run the ball, however, Dobbins offers plenty of profit potential as a mid-RB2 type. Dobbins could potentially be a steal if Harbaugh follows through on a "main offensive point of emphasis" this offseason, which is to get the RBs more involved in the passing game.
Swift was much more involved in the second half of the season as he finished his rookie campaign with 114/521/8 (4.6 YPC) rushing and 46/357/2 (7.8 Y/R) receiving. Swift had three-plus catches in 12 of 13 games and his ability as a receiver gives him the upside to crack the top-10 fantasy running backs in 2021.
Falling short of preseason expectations, Sanders missed four games and averaged just 3.1 yards per target after his catch rate dropped from 79.4% as a rookie to 53.8% in 2020. Although he averaged an impressive 5.3 yards per carry for the season, Sanders failed to exceed 3.8 YPC in four of his final five games. While roster cuts will make the running back room less crowded, comments by running backs coach Jamel Singleton suggest that Sanders may not be featured as heavily as he was last year even though he's the clear RB1.
With Cam Akers (Achilles) injured and Malcolm Brown now longer in L.A., the Rams will turn to Henderson, by default, for large workloads. It's possible that they add a veteran free agent before the start of the season as Henderson has dealt with his own share of injuries over the past year. That said, he has massive upside in what should be a much-improved offense with Matthew Stafford under center.
Gaskin was off to a strong start through Week 8, but he only appeared in three games (Weeks 13, 16 and 17) after that point. Even though he missed six games, he ranked 15th among running backs in receptions (41). In addition, only three running backs had more receptions in the 10 weeks that Gaskin played.
The former seventh-round pick out of Washington has shown the ability to be highly productive and the Dolphins were unable to draft one of the top three backs in the 2021 NFL Draft. While I currently project a first-round running back to the Dolphins in my early 2022 NFL Mock Draft, Gaskin is a viable RB2 for fantasy managers in 2021 and he has the potential to vastly exceed his current ADP with good health.
Improvements in durability, volume and red-zone efficiency helped to boost Jacobs' overall fantasy production (RB8 across scoring formats) despite an overall drop in efficiency from his 2019 rookie season. Despite a slight uptick in the passing game (2.2 receptions per contest) last season, Jacobs averaged only 4.26 yards per touch, a drop from 5.02 as a rookie.
Jacobs played 15 of 16 games, scored 12 touchdowns (compared to seven in 2019) and only Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook had more touches than Jacobs (306). The addition of Kenyan Drake to the backfield should lead to fewer touches and especially fewer targets in 2021. Without a significant drop in Josh Jacobs' fantasy ADP, he will likely be a player that I avoid in drafts this summer.
Filling in for a mostly-injured Christian McCaffrey in 2020, Davis performed as a top-15 (half-PPR) fantasy running back last season. With limited competition for running back touches, Davis will have at least flex appeal, especially with Arthur Smith (most recently OC in Tennessee) taking over as Atlanta's head coach.
The former fourth-round pick has averaged 4.4 yards per carry and 7.2 yards per reception over his first three NFL seasons. With Kenyan Drake out and James Conner in, Edmonds should be Arizona's RB1 and has an opportunity to perform as a fantasy RB2 in 2021.
Over the final six weeks of the season, Montgomery was absolutely dominant (although that was aided by a soft schedule). Even so, the second-year back scored no less than 19.1 fantasy points and finished no worse than fantasy's weekly RB9 during that stretch. Montgomery exceeded 100 scrimmage yards and scored a touchdown (or two) in all six of those games and only Derrick Henry had more fantasy points during that span.
The return of a healthy Tarik Cohen and signing of Damien Williams may lead to a few less touches in 2021 for Montgomery, but he offers some upside based on Montgomery's ADP.
Even though he was the third back off the board, some teams viewed Williams as "best back in the draft." With the Broncos moving up to get in front of the Dolphins to select Williams, it's likely that he emerges as the team's lead back sooner rather than later. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if the Broncos parted ways (via trade or release) before final roster cuts. The 20-year-old back is a tackle-breaking machine.
A two-time ACC Offensive Player of the Year, Etienne surprised many by returning to school for another season. As impressive as James Robinson was as a rookie (UDFA), Etienne's talent and (first-round) draft pedigree make him the favorite to emerge as the team's primary back sooner than later even if Robinson gets more touches in Week 1.
Missing half of the season, Mostert finished the year with 677 scrimmage yards (84.6/G) and only three touchdowns on 120 touches (15/G). Mostert has career averages of 5.6 YPC and 10.0 Y/R, but it's possible that Trey Sermon emerges as the team's top fantasy running back at some point this season.
While Chubb (RB9) was a top-10 fantasy running back in 2020, so was Hunt (RB10). Outside of Week 16, Hunt had double-digit touches in all of his other 15 games. Playing in one of the league's most run-heavy offenses, there is enough to go around for both Chubb and Hunt to be drafted as viable starters in 12-team leagues.
Robinson had modest performances in Weeks 14 and 15 and missed Weeks 16 and 17. Before that, however, he was the favorite for 2020 Fantasy Football MVP (if such an award actually existed).
As lead back of a one-win team, the UDFA was fourth in half-PPR fantasy points, fourth in YFS and third in touches through Week 13. Even though Robinson has shown that he can be highly effective as the featured back, the addition of a first-round running back takes the sails out of Robinson's 2021 outlook.
As lead backs for their respective teams in 2020, the duo of Josh Jacobs and Drake combined for a massive 570 touches last season. Obviously, that number will drop significantly now that they share a backfield, even if the Raiders plan to use Drake in a variety of ways including at receiver. With Drake often going in Round 9 or later in fantasy football mock drafts, Drake is worth the risk as an RB4+ that late.
Opening camp with the first-team offense, Carter is the 1(a) option in the backfield even if the offense deploys a committee approach this season. The rookie out of UNC averaged 8.0 YPC as a senior and finished his collegiate career with 82 receptions.
Not only does Sermon have the highest draft pedigree (third round) among the team's running backs, but the Niners traded up to draft him. Given his frame, balance and vision, the team could look to make him their featured back sooner than later (as much as Kyle Shanahan will feature an individual back, that is).
Harris is a non-factor as a receiver (five receptions in 2020) and that likely won't change much with James White returning to Foxboro. The other major obstacle to Harris being a top-24 option is the presence of Cam Newton, who rushed for six times as many touchdowns as Harris (12 to two) in 2020. While it may not be a six-to-one ratio in 2021, Newton's return limits Harris' touchdown upside for as long as Newton holds off Mac Jones as the starter.
Many 2021 mock drafts linked the Bills to a first-round running back. Instead of adding an early-round running back, it's a positive for the outlook of Moss and Devin Singletary that the Bills only added Matt Breida in free agency. While I prefer Moss over Singletary, a concern for both is that Josh Allen has 25 rushing touchdowns over the past three seasons. Not only has Allen led the team in that category in each of the past three years, he has 56.8% (25 of 44) of the team's rushing touchdowns over that stretch.
The Buccaneers leaned on Playoff Lenny in their Super Bowl run as Fournette tallied 448 scrimmage yards and four all-purpose touchdowns on 82 touches including 18 receptions over four playoff games. With the addition of Giovani Bernard to the backfield as a viable threat to steal valuable passing-down reps, Fournette enters the season no better than a flex option even if he's Tampa's 1(a).
Despite missing a couple of games and the fact that Fournette emerged as the team's primary back, Jones had his best season as a pro with career highs as a runner -- 192 carries, 978 yards, 5.1 YPC and seven touchdowns. RoJo took a step back as a receiver, however, with a 66.7% catch rate (77.5% in 2019) and 5.9 Y/R (10.0 in 2019).
Johnson's three best games of the season occurred over the final three games of the season -- 18.8 half-PPR fantasy points (RB13), 27.4 (RB4) and 19.5 (RB11), respectively. Outside of that three-game stretch to close the season, however, Johnson was a more modest performer, but he finished as a top-25 weekly running back in 10 of 12 games in 2020.
The Texans should be one of the worst teams in the NFL in 2021 and the additions of Phillip Lindsay, Rex Burkhead and Mark Ingram further muddy DJ's 2021 outlook.
While only 14 yards shy of 1,000 rushing yards in 2020, Gordon averaged a career-low 4.9 yards per catch. From Weeks 11 to 17, however, elite volume (120 touches, seventh-most) allowed MG3 to rank seventh in yards from scrimmage (618) and ninth in half-PPR scoring during that stretch.
Will the presence of Javonte Williams make Gordon expendable? For fantasy managers that roster MG3, it may be better for a new opportunity than a situation where the Broncos gradually shift a larger share of the workload to Williams as the season progresses, a potentially frustrating development for MG3 fantasy managers.
When both Kamara and Murray are active, Murray flirts with stand-alone flex value -- especially during bye weeks. For any weeks that Kamara may miss, however, Murray becomes a must-start play. In the two games that Kamara missed and Murray was active, Murray had a total of 62 touches, 307 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns.
In his four NFL seasons, Williams has averaged 736.5 scrimmage yards, 155.5 touches and 30.5 receptions per season with the Packers. While he remains his team's RB2 (to D'Andre Swift instead of Aaron Jones), Williams should get 8-10 touches per game even with both Swift and Williams healthy.
Singletary followed up his rookie season with 687 rushing yards (4.4 YPC) and two touchdowns to go along with 38 catches for 269 yards. While I would prefer Moss over Singletary, both are not much more than a flex option heading into 2021. On a positive note, however, coach Sean McDermott has praised Singletary for "really trying to master the small things that come up down in and down out. ... I've really been impressed with his attention to detail over the past few days."
Best in standard (non-PPR) formats, Edwards performed as fantasy's RB28 in non-PPR, RB35 in half-PPR and RB37 in full PPR formats in 2020. Edwards has a minimum of 133 carries, 711 yards and 5.0 YPC in all three of his NFL seasons. While Dobbins will handle the bulk of touches, Edwards should approach double-digit touches per game and has stand-alone flex value.
Joining the Cardinals on a one-year deal, Conner will steal some early-down carries from Edmonds and could potentially be in a fairly even split. If he can stay healthy and earn a larger role, there is plenty of upside.
With 21/124/2 against the Titans in Week 16, fantasy managers got a glimpse of what Dillon could do in a lead-back role. With Aaron Jones re-upping with the Packers, however, that won't happen as long as Jones is on the field. Unlike Jamaal Williams, who's now in Detroit, Dillon isn't much of a receiver out of the backfield, which lowers his fantasy floor.
Despite playing fewer than 50% of the team's offensive snaps every week except for the game Ezekiel Elliott missed (Week 15, 90%), Pollard had at least eight touches in 10 of the team's final 12 games. Excluding his one start, Pollard averaged nine touches over his final 11 games in which he appeared in less than half of the team's offensive snaps. Assuming good health for Dak Prescott and the offensive line, 8-10 weekly touches in this offense could lead to stand-alone flex value for Pollard on a weekly basis.
Beginning his career by rushing for 1,000-plus yards and hauling in 35 receptions in back-to-back seasons, Lindsay missed five games but was also on the wrong side of Denver's timeshare with Melvin Gordon in 2020. The former UDFA joins a crowded backfield in Houston that will be hampered often by negative game scripts.
McKissic ranked top three on the team in receptions (80), targets (110) and receiving yards (589) in 2020 and only Alvin Kamara (83) had more receptions among running backs. With a quarterback less likely to check down and Gibson's ability as a receiver (and likely increased target share), there will likely be much fewer opportunities for McKissic in 2021.
Cohen missed all but three games in 2020, but The Human Joystick is one of the league's best receiving backs. In his first three NFL seasons (2017-19), Cohen had a total of 203 receptions, 2,561 scrimmage yards and 14 touchdowns. A QB transition from Andy Dalton to Justin Fields could lead to fewer targets for Cohen, however, as Fields could be more inclined to use his elite athleticism than check it down to Cohen when a play breaks down.
One of the better receiving backs in the league, Hines finished as a top-24 running back across all scoring formats (RB15 in PPR, RB20 in half-PPR and RB24 in standard) in 2020. Only Alvin Kamara (83) and J.D. McKissic (80) had more receptions than Hines (63) last season.
Injuries have limited Coleman during his two seasons with the 49ers as he has played only 36% and 6% of the offensive snaps in 2019 and 2020, respectively. That said, he brings with him knowledge of the system and familiarity with the coaches that Robert Saleh brought with him from San Francisco.
