The Daily Blitz: Damien Harris

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Friday, September 1, 2023

Buffalo Bills 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

Our Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2023 fantasy football projections for the Buffalo Bills.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

Player	Att.	Comp.	Yards	TD	INT	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Josh Allen	585.1	370.4	4271.2	33.94	14.04	103.9	602.6	4.68	366.87
Kyle Allen	37.3	22	264.8	1.19	1.04	4.6	6.9	0.05	14.26

Josh Allen: Fantasy managers know exactly what they're getting when they draft Allen, who has finished as fantasy's QB1, QB1 and QB2 over the past three seasons, respectively. Few quarterbacks have as much weekly upside and consistency as Allen. Last season, he finished as a top-six weekly QB in 12 of 16 games played and finished as a top-12 weekly quarterback in two more games.

MORE: Josh Allen 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook

RUNNING BACKS

Player	Att.	Yards	TD	Rec.	Yards	TD	Points
James Cook	155.7	685.1	3.97	45.7	353.8	2.4	164.96
Damien Harris	107.3	461.4	3.11	16.1	120.2	0.6	88.47
Latavius Murray	82.2	361.7	2.22	12.9	104.3	0.6	69.97
Reggie Gilliam	0	0	0	7.5	59	0.4	12.05

James Cook: Cook was one of Buffalo's fantasy winners after the draft, as there was some projection that the Bills could target someone like Bijan Robinson if he slipped. (Of course, he didn't.) Heading into 2023 atop the depth chart, he'll split touches with veterans like Damien Harris and Latavius Murray, but he'll be in the (back-end) RB2 mix for fantasy managers this season. Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey praised Cook's versatility and potential to be a "three-down back."

Damien Harris: Harris has been productive when given volume (1,061 YFS and 15 TDs in 2021). He signed a modest one-year contract, and he (and/or Latavius Murray) will be a TD-dependent option in fantasy leagues, when healthy.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Player	Rec.	Yards	TD	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Stefon Diggs	105	1326.8	9.6	1.1	5.5	0.01	243.39
Gabe Davis	55.9	827.8	7.2	0	0	0	153.93
Trent Sherfield	21.6	267.6	2.1	0	0	0	50.16
Khalil Shakir	16.7	220	1.8	0	0	0	41.15
Deonte Harty	10	127	1.2	1.8	11.7	0.02	26.19
Justin Shorter	8.6	113.4	1.1	0	0	0	22.24

Stefon Diggs: Since becoming a Bill, Diggs has posted the following stat lines — 127/1535/8 (2020), 103/1225/10 (2021) and 108/1429/11 (2022). During that same span, he has finished as fantasy's WR3, WR7 and WR4, respectively. Diggs has an extremely high floor as Josh Allen's go-to receiver within Buffalo's high-powered offense.

Gabe Davis: A popular name on 2022 breakout lists, Davis set (or tied) career highs in receptions (48), targets (93), yards (836) and touchdowns (seven) last season. And although he finished as fantasy's WR27, it's fair to say that many fantasy managers expected more. Davis failed to reach the 40-yard mark in eight of 15 regular-season games, and he scored only once in those eight modest performances.

Trent Sherfield: The Athletic's Joe Buscaglia wrote after the team's second preseason game, "[a]long with his versatility to play slot receiver or to allow Stefon Diggs to play in the slot, this is another fantastic sign that Sherfield's bid to be WR3 is legitimate." The Bills are Sherfield's fourth team in four seasons, but he posted career highs in his age-26 season with the Dolphins (30/417/2) last year.

Khalil Shakir: Instead of drafting a receiver at the end of Round 1, the Bills drafted tight end Dalton Kincaid. While Shakir may rank third in WR snaps behind Diggs and Davis, the presence of Kincaid (and more two-TE sets) could limit his ability to make a significant jump in his second season.

TIGHT ENDS

Player	Rec.	Yards	TD	Points
Dalton Kincaid	47.9	528.4	4.3	102.59
Dawson Knox	40.2	444.5	3.6	86.15
Quintin Morris	4.3	43.1	0.4	8.86

Dalton Kincaid: A lengthy adjustment period for rookie tight ends typically leads to modest fantasy impacts for the position. That said, Kincaid was arguably the most talented pass catcher (wide receiver or tight end) in the 2023 NFL Draft, so there is potential for him to be utilized more than a typical rookie tight end as a mismatch in the passing game.

Dawson Knox: Knox's 2022 numbers (48/517/6) were similar, albeit slightly less, than his 2021 production (49/587/9). It's unlikely that Knox will produce as a top-12 option in 2023, and his touchdown dependency is high given his relatively low volume. Knox exceeded 50 receiving yards in only three regular-season games last season.

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Wednesday, August 23, 2023

Buffalo Bills 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

Our Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2023 fantasy football projections for the Buffalo Bills.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

Player	Att.	Comp.	Yards	TD	INT	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Josh Allen	585.1	370.4	4271.2	33.94	14.04	103.9	602.6	4.68	366.87
Matt Barkley	37.3	21.1	264.8	1.16	1.53	4.6	-5.1	0	11.66

MORE: Josh Allen 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook

RUNNING BACKS

Player	Att.	Yards	TD	Rec.	Yards	TD	Points
James Cook	150.7	663.1	3.77	45.6	353.8	2.4	161.51
Damien Harris	111.9	481.2	3.25	16.1	120.2	0.6	91.29
Latavius Murray	76.5	336.6	2.07	12.9	104.3	0.6	66.56
Darrynton Evans	6.2	26.4	0.16	6.3	45.4	0.3	13.09
Reggie Gilliam	0	0	0	7.4	59	0.4	12

Damien Harris: Harris has been productive when given volume (1,061 YFS and 15 TDs in 2021). He signed a modest one-year contract, and he will be a TD-dependent option in fantasy leagues, when healthy. "When healthy" is the operative phrase, as Harris has been dealing with a knee injury.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Player	Rec.	Yards	TD	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Stefon Diggs	104.7	1326.8	9.6	1.1	5.5	0.01	243.24
Gabe Davis	54.8	807.4	7.1	0	0	0	150.74
Trent Sherfield	19.6	238.1	2.1	0	0	0	46.21
Khalil Shakir	16.6	220	1.8	0	0	0	41.1
Deonte Harty	10	127	1.2	1.8	11.7	0.02	26.19
Justin Shorter	8.6	113.4	1.1	0	0	0	22.24

TIGHT ENDS

Player	Rec.	Yards	TD	Points
Dalton Kincaid	44.4	512.6	4	97.46
Dawson Knox	40.1	462.7	3.6	87.92
Quintin Morris	4.3	45.4	0.4	9.09

Dalton Kincaid: A lengthy adjustment period for rookie tight ends typically leads to modest fantasy impacts for the position. That said, Kincaid was arguably the most talented pass catcher (wide receiver or tight end) in the 2023 NFL Draft, so there is potential for him to utilized more than a typical rookie tight end as a mismatch in the passing game.

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Wednesday, May 17, 2023

Buffalo Bills 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

Our Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2023 fantasy football projections for the Buffalo Bills.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

Player	Att.	Comp.	Yards	TD	INT	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Josh Allen	587.3	371.8	4287.3	34.65	14.1	114.1	696	5.99	387.43
Matt Barkley	37.5	21.2	266.3	1.16	1.54	4.6	-5.1	0	11.7

RUNNING BACKS

Player	Att.	Yards	TD	Rec.	Yards	TD	Points
James Cook	159.8	703.1	4	43.2	332.4	2.3	162.95
Damien Harris	121	520.3	3.33	7.9	54.6	0.2	82.62
Nyheim Hines	41.1	168.5	0.99	31.4	236.8	1.2	69.37
Latavius Murray	13	57.2	0.33	2	13.7	0.1	10.67
Reggie Gilliam	0	0	0	7.9	63.8	0.4	12.73

James Cook: Cook is one of Buffalo's biggest fantasy winners of the draft, as there was some projection that the Bills could target someone like Bijan Robinson if he slipped. (Of course, he didn't.) Heading into 2023 atop the depth chart, he'll split touches with veterans like Damien Harris, Nyheim Hines and Latavius Murray, but he'll be an RB2/flex option for fantasy managers this season.

Damien Harris: Harris has been productive when given volume (1,061 YFS and 15 TDs in 2021), but his modest one-year contract means that he's a distant RB2 to Cook. Barring injury, he's little more than a TD-dependent option in fantasy leagues.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Player	Rec.	Yards	TD	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Stefon Diggs	116.9	1489	11.2	1.1	5.5	0.01	275.16
Gabe Davis	53.1	787.8	7.1	0	0	0	147.93
Khalil Shakir	21.6	277.8	2	0	0	0	50.58
Deonte Harty	11.8	150.3	1.4	1.8	11.7	0.02	30.62
Justin Shorter	10.8	136.6	1.2	0	0	0	26.26
Trent Sherfield	7.9	102.5	1	0	0	0	20.2

Gabe Davis: A popular name on 2022 breakout lists, Davis set (or tied) career highs in receptions (48), targets (93), yards (836) and touchdowns (seven) last season. And although he finished as fantasy's WR27, it's fair to say that many fantasy managers expected even more. Davis failed to reach the 40-yard mark in eight of 15 regular-season games, and he scored only once in those eight modest performances.

Khalil Shakir: Instead of drafting a receiver at the end of Round 1, the Bills drafted tight end Dalton Kincaid. While Shakir should rank third in WR snaps behind Diggs and Davis, the presence of Kincaid (and more two-TE sets) could limit his ability to make a significant jump in his second season.

TIGHT ENDS

Player	Rec.	Yards	TD	Points
Dawson Knox	43.2	498.6	4.2	96.66
Dalton Kincaid	31	364.3	3	69.93
Quintin Morris	4.3	45.5	0.4	9.1

Dawson Knox: Knox's 2022 numbers (48/517/6) were similar, albeit slightly less, than his 2021 production (49/587/9). While Knox may produce as a (back-end) top-12 option in 2023, but his touchdown dependency is high given his relatively low volume. Knox exceeded 50 receiving yards in only three regular-season games last season.

Dalton Kincaid: A lengthy adjustment period for rookie tight ends typically leads to modest fantasy impacts for the position. That said, Kincaid was arguably the most talented pass catcher (regardless of position) in the 2023 NFL Draft, so there is potential for him to make early contributions as a mismatch in the passing game. As Brandon Beane says, Kincaid "is a tight end, but he is a receiving tight end."

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Monday, September 5, 2022

New England Patriots Fantasy Football Projections 2022

Our 2022 Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2022 fantasy football projections for the New England Patriots.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

Player	Att.	Comp.	Yards	TD	INT	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Mac Jones	492	327.2	3517.8	21.65	11.07	44.3	132.9	0.66	222.42
Brian Hoyer	37	24.1	259	1.11	0.74	4.9	4.9	0.05	14.11

Mac Jones: Despite being the last selected of five first-round quarterbacks in 2021, Jones played the best out of that group even if he was "way too protected" by the Patriots offense as a rookie. The "Pro Bowler" ended his rookie campaign with 3,801 passing yards (7.3 Y/A), 22 touchdowns (4.2%) and 13 interceptions (2.5%). The offensive line and offensive coaching create some concerns that could inhibit Jones' growth in his second season.

RUNNING BACKS

Player	Att.	Yards	TD	Rec.	Yards	TD	Points
Damien Harris	202	909	7.07	16.7	120.9	0.7	157.96
Rhamondre Stevenson	167.5	737	5.78	30	219.1	1.2	152.49
Ty Montgomery	30.8	135.5	0.77	12.8	103.9	0.6	38.56
Pierre Strong	27.1	117.9	0.68	7.9	54.8	0.4	27.7

Damien Harris: Harris set career highs in rush attempts (202), rushing yards (929) and rushing touchdowns (15) in 2021. Finishing last season as fantasy's RB8 in non-PPR scoring, he still ended the year inside the top 14 across all scoring formats. Although he was the subject of some trade speculation, the contract-year running back remains on the roster although the gap between him and Rhamondre Stevenson may be minimal.

Rhamondre Stevenson: Stevenson carried the ball 133 times for 606 yards (4.56 YPC) and five touchdowns as a rookie, and added 14 catches for 123 yards. He had 19-plus carries in three games last season and finished with 100-plus rushing yards and a pair of scores in two of them. Bill Belichick has talked up Stevenson's development in the pass game and said "it might even become a strength." Even if Harris enters the season as the 1A to Stevenson's 1B, it wouldn't be a shock if the former Sooner emerges as the team's most productive back.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Player	Rec.	Yards	TD	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Jakobi Meyers	67.6	745.9	3.8	0	0	0	131.19
DeVante Parker	52.9	676	4	0	0	0	118.05
Kendrick Bourne	35	413.6	2.5	7.4	48.1	0.15	79.57
Nelson Agholor	29	360.7	2.1	2.5	11.3	0.05	64.6
Tyquan Thornton	14.1	192.6	1	0	0	0	32.31
Matthew Slater	0.5	5.7	0	0	0	0	0.82

Jakobi Meyers: The good news is that Meyers finally scored a touchdown, actually two of them, to go along with 126 targets, 83 catches and 866 yards in 2021. Even with the Patriots trading for DeVante Parker, there's a decent chance that Meyers will lead the team in target share, receptions and yards, but the lack of red zone production gives him little upside.

DeVante Parker: As the saying goes, "the best ability is availability" and Parker has struggled with durability. With his 2019 season being the exception, Parker has missed multiple games in four of the past five seasons and has averaged only 12.8 games over that span. His 17-game pace during that stretch is 68/927/5 and it wouldn't surprise me if he was New England's most productive receiver if he stays healthy in 2022.

TIGHT ENDS

Player	Rec.	Yards	TD	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Hunter Henry	53.2	553.3	4.3	0	0	0	107.73
Jonnu Smith	31.6	330.5	2.2	6.2	34.1	0.16	66.42

Hunter Henry: Henry's 2021 per-game numbers in receptions (2.9) and yards (35.5) were the lowest of his career outside of his rookie season. That said, he set a career high in touchdowns (nine).

Jonnu Smith: Smith had five-plus targets in each of his first four games as a Patriot, but then he was a recipient of five targets in only one of his other 12 games in 2021. With only one touchdown last season, Smith never finished better than TE15 (half-PPR scoring) in any game last season. Belichick has said that Smith has "had a really good offseason" and that "he's put himself in position to, I think, go out and play well."

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Saturday, September 25, 2021

Week 3 Fantasy Football RB Start'em, Sit'em

The decision on which player to start, or sit, largely comes down to the options on your roster (and/or possibly the players available on your league's waiver wire).

As an example, Ty'Son Williams is listed below as a "start" for Week 3. And I'd certainly be comfortable going into Week 3 with him as my starting quarterback.

Then again, Williams may be a "sit" for your team.

As an example, if you own Derrick Henry, Chris Carson and Williams and start two running backs, you should start Henry and Carson and, in turn, bench Williams.

For a more direct answer on whether we would start Player X over Player Y, check our Week 3 Fantasy Football Rankings. Instead of making those direct comparisons, the goal here is to highlight players that we like, or dislike, for the week.

Week 3 Fantasy Football RB Start'em

Ty'Son Williams, Baltimore Ravens (at DET)

More than a TD favorite on the road, the Ravens have the third-highest implied total this week. While Latavius Murray and Devonta Freeman will rotate as a part of a committee, Williams should lead the rotation as he's done through the first two weeks. In two games, Williams has 22 carries for 142 yards (6.5 YPC) and a touchdown in addition to to five receptions for 45 yards.

No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing running backs this season than the Detroit Lions. Not only did Aaron Jones score four touchdowns against them last week, but Elijah Mitchell ran for 104 yards against them in Week 1.

Damien Harris, New England Patriots (vs. NO)

The matchup may not great on paper as the New Orleans Saints rank third in the NFL in rushing defense (66.0 YPG allowed) and ranked fourth (93.9) last season as well. That said, Harris has a total of 42 touches through two games and should get enough work to deliver mid-RB2 returns for his fantasy managers. In fact, only four running backs -- Derrick Henry (61), Christian McCaffrey (59), Joe Mixon (54) and Dalvin Cook (50) -- have more touches through Week 2 than Harris.

Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals (at JAX)

Edmonds enters Week 3 with two mid-RB2 weekly performances -- in fact, he was the RB18 both weeks (half-PPR scoring). Edmonds has yet to score a touchdown, but he has a total of 29 touches -- 20 rush attempts and nine receptions. Higher than some on Edmonds entering the season (Chase Edmonds preseason profile), my thought was his role as a receiver provided him a floor at his then ADP with upside for more. That's how I feel about him this week -- RB2 floor due to his receiving role with RB1 upside if he's able to find the end zone in a plus matchup with the second-highest implied total of the week.

Week 3 Fantasy Football RB Sit'em

Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills (vs. WAS)

Singletary has been a pleasant surprise through the first two weeks of the season. Averaging 6.42 yards per carry, Singletary has scored the 16th-most running back fantasy points this season. Even with Zack Moss active in Week 2, Singletary had more touches in Week 2 (15) than he had in Week 1 (14).

That said, potential workload concerns for such a pass-happy team with a dual-threat quarterback that has led the team in rushing touchdowns over the past three-plus seasons still exist. In addition, the matchup is a tough one as WFT has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.

Darrell Henderson/Sony Michel, Los Angeles Rams (vs. TB)

If Henderson is active, Michel would be a "sit." At this point, the Rams have "hope and optimism" that Henderson (ribs) will be able to play in Week 3.

That said, the Bucs have one of the league's best run defenses. They currently rank second in rushing YPG (57.5) allowed and third in YPC (3.0) allowed. They led the NFL in both categories (80.6 YPG, 3.6 YPC) in 2020. So far this season, they have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. Regardless of who's active, all Rams running backs are outside of my top 24 in Week 3.

Kenyan Drake, Las Vegas Raiders (vs. MIA)

Going into the season, it seemed as though it would take an injury to Josh Jacobs for Drake to move into the RB2 range. With Jacobs out last week, it was Peyton Barber that handled much of the early-down work. With Jacobs sidelined in Week 2, Drake had only one more touch in Week 2 (12) than he had in Week 1 (11). That said, Barber had 13 touches in Week 2. Even with Jacobs doubtful for Week 3, Drake remains nothing more than a flex option against his former team.

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Wednesday, September 1, 2021

Fantasy Football Projections 2021: New England Patriots

Our 2021 Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2021 fantasy football projections for the New England Patriots.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

Player	Att.	Comp.	Yards	TD	INT	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Mac Jones	563.2	366.1	4083.2	24.22	12.67	41.4	128.3	1.04	253.94
Jarrett Stidham	17.4	10.4	118.3	0.73	0.68	4.6	3.5	0.05	6.94

Mac Jones: While it would be unfair to compare any quarterback to Tom Brady, Jones (like Brady) makes up for a lack of elite arm strength and mobility with quick processing ability and accuracy. Not only did Jones beat out Cam Newton for the starting job, but he won't have to look other his shoulder (if he struggles) with Newton no longer on the roster.

RUNNING BACKS

Player	Att.	Yards	TD	Rec.	Yards	TD	Points
Damien Harris	230.1	1058.5	5.75	21.6	170.2	0.9	173.57
James White	57.5	221.4	1.29	55.5	464.3	2.8	120.86
Rhamondre Stevenson	98.9	430.2	2.47	8.5	65.1	0.2	69.8
J.J. Taylor	19.6	86.2	0.29	1.5	10.5	0	12.16
Jakob Johnson	0	0	0	5.6	31.5	0.2	7.15
Brandon Bolden	1.2	5.2	0.03	1.1	8.4	0	2.09

Damien Harris: In terms of usage, Harris has been a non-factor as a receiver (five receptions in 2020) and that may not change much with James White returning to Foxboro given his well-defined third-down role within the Patriots offense. With New England handing the keys to the franchise to Mac Jones, the fantasy outlook for Harris should improve as he won't have to worry about Cam Newton vulturing rushing touchdowns.

James White: With Tom Brady in Tampa, White set five-year lows in targets (62), touches (84), yards from scrimmage (496) and touchdowns (three). White benefits from the team moving on from Cam Newton as it should translate into fewer QB rush attempts and more running back targets.

Rhamondre Stevenson: Stevenson's strong play -- 30/216/5 rushing in three preseason games -- was one factor the Patriots were comfortable parting ways with Sony Michel. Even so, the fourth-round rookie out of Oklahoma will likely need an injury to either Harris and/or White to be a factor in fantasy this season.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Player	Rec.	Yards	TD	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Jakobi Meyers	64.9	794.1	3.9	1.2	5.4	0.02	135.92
Nelson Agholor	50.8	697.4	4	0	0	0	119.14
Kendrick Bourne	36.7	462.2	2.6	0	0	0	80.17
N'Keal Harry	27.9	329.8	2.3	0.9	5.4	0.02	61.39
Gunner Olszewski	2.8	33.6	0.2	1.4	6.4	0.03	6.78

Jakobi Meyers: Meyers led the Patriots with 81 targets, 59 receptions and 729 yards in 2020. While the team added Nelson Agholor and Kendall Bourne in free agency, there's a good chance that the Meyers leads the position group in receiving once again.

Nelson Agholor: Agholor set a career high in receiving yards (896) and tied a career high in touchdowns (eight) in his lone season in Las Vegas. While I expect Meyers to continue to perform as the team's WR1, it wouldn't surprise me if Agholor came close to duplicating his 2020 numbers.

TIGHT ENDS

Player	Rec.	Yards	TD	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Jonnu Smith	47.1	554.6	3.8	3.5	29.8	0.18	105.87
Hunter Henry	47.6	529.4	3.6	0	0	0	98.34
Devin Asiasi	4.7	50.4	0.4	0	0	0	9.79

Jonnu Smith: One year after investing a pair of Day 2 picks at the position, the Patriots double-dipped in the free-agent tight end market with Smith and Hunter Henry. Smith scored more touchdowns in 2020 (nine including a rushing score) than he did in his first three NFL seasons combined (eight). And while he set career highs in targets (65), receptions (41) and receiving yards (448), Smith likely frustrated his fantasy managers as he was held to 20 receiving yards or less in more than half of his games last season.

Hunter Henry: Missing multiple games in four consecutive seasons including all of 2018, Henry had 60 catches on 93 targets, both of which were career highs, for 613 yards and four touchdowns in 2020. Unfortunately for both Smith and Henry, however, their individual upside may cancel each other out.

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Friday, August 20, 2021

2021 Fantasy Football Projections: New England Patriots

Our 2021 Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2021 fantasy football projections for the New England Patriots.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

Player	Att.	Comp.	Yards	TD	INT	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Cam Newton	339.2	217.8	2442.2	13.74	8.14	82.1	353	5.34	203.71
Mac Jones	203.5	132.3	1475.4	8.75	4.58	19.9	61.7	0.5	94.03

Cam Newton: Newton struggled as a passer in 2020 and many reasons -- return from injury, new team with unusual offseason, lack of pass-catching talent, etc. -- attributed to his woeful passing numbers. Even though 33 quarterbacks threw more touchdowns than Newton (eight) and he threw more interceptions (10) than touchdowns, he also scored the 16th-most fantasy points as he rushed for 12 touchdowns.

Likely to run for fewer scores and throw for more, Newton has improved weapons in the passing game. At this point of the preseason, Newton appears to be in the driver's seat for the starting job even though Mac Jones, New England's first-round pick, has made it a real competition. If Newton struggles, however, it's possible that the Patriots make a (permanent) midseason switch to Jones.

Mac Jones: While it would be unfair to compare any quarterback to Tom Brady, Jones (like Brady) makes up for a lack of elite arm strength and mobility with quick processing ability and accuracy. It would be reasonable to assume that Jones makes some starts during the season even if he doesn't win the job outright to begin the season.

RUNNING BACKS

Player	Att.	Yards	TD	Rec.	Yards	TD	Points
Damien Harris	216.5	995.9	5.41	15.9	127.3	0.6	156.33
James White	42.3	158.6	0.95	51.6	440.7	2.6	107.03
Sony Michel	69.7	299.7	1.74	6.7	45.1	0.1	48.87
Rhamondre Stevenson	56	243.6	1.4	5.4	43.1	0.2	40.97
J.J. Taylor	2.5	11	0.04	1.4	9.8	0	3.02
Brandon Bolden	1.2	5.2	0.03	1.1	5.9	0	1.84

Damien Harris: In terms of usage, Harris is a non-factor as a receiver (five receptions in 2020) and that likely won't change much with James White returning to Foxboro given his well-defined third-down role within the Patriots offense. The other major obstacle to Harris being a top-24 option is the presence of Cam Newton, who rushed for six times as many touchdowns as Harris (12 to two) in 2020. As long as Newton holds off Mac Jones as the starter, there is the chance/likelihood that he vultures goal-line opportunities from Harris. While the skill set is there for a breakout, he's more correctly drafted as a flex option, which matches his ADP.

James White: With Tom Brady in Tampa, White set five-year lows in targets (62), touches (84), yards from scrimmage (496) and touchdowns (three). White would likely benefit from a quarterback shift from Newton to Jones as it would likely translate into fewer QB rush attempts and more running back targets.

Rhamondre Stevenson: Stevenson's strong play -- 25/193/4 rushing in two preseason games -- could lead to the Patriots parting ways with Sony Michel. Even so, the fourth-round rookie out of Oklahoma is unlikely to carry much fantasy value in 2021 as both Harris and White will be featured more prominently even if Michel is cut/dealt.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Player	Rec.	Yards	TD	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Jakobi Meyers	60.4	722.8	3.5	1.2	5.4	0.02	124.14
Nelson Agholor	47.3	638.6	3.5	0	0	0	108.51
Kendrick Bourne	34.1	430.9	2.3	0	0	0	73.94
N'Keal Harry	32.9	385.9	2.5	1	6	0.02	70.76
Gunner Olszewski	2.6	29.4	0.2	1.5	6.9	0.03	6.31

TIGHT ENDS

Player	Rec.	Yards	TD	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Jonnu Smith	42	505.4	3.3	3.7	31.5	0.19	95.63
Hunter Henry	44.3	485.8	3.2	0	0	0	89.93
Devin Asiasi	4.4	47	0.3	0	0	0	8.7

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Wednesday, August 4, 2021

Fantasy Football Projections 2021: New England Patriots

Our 2021 Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2021 fantasy football projections for the New England Patriots.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

Player	Att.	Comp.	Yards	TD	INT	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Cam Newton	325.7	209.1	2345	13.19	7.82	79.6	342.3	5.17	196.17
Mac Jones	217.1	141.1	1574	9.34	4.88	22.4	69.4	0.56	100.86

Cam Newton: Newton struggled as a passer and many reasons -- return from injury, new team with unusual offseason, lack of pass-catching talent, etc. -- attributed to his woeful passing numbers. Even though 33 quarterbacks threw more touchdowns than Newton (eight) and he threw more interceptions (10) than touchdowns, he also scored the 16th-most fantasy points as he rushed for 12 touchdowns.

Likely to run for fewer scores and throw for more, Newton has improved weapons in the passing game. If he struggles, however, it's possible that the Patriots make a (permanent) midseason switch to first-round pick Mac Jones.

Mac Jones: While it would be unfair to compare any quarterback to Tom Brady, Jones (like Brady) makes up for a lack of elite arm strength and mobility with quick processing ability and accuracy. It would be reasonable to assume that Jones makes some starts during the season even if he doesn't win the job outright to begin the season.

RUNNING BACKS

Player	Att.	Yards	TD	Rec.	Yards	TD	Points
Damien Harris	214	984.4	5.35	14	107.8	0.5	151.32
James White	42.3	158.6	0.95	51.7	440.9	2.6	107.1
Sony Michel	87.1	374.5	2.18	7	49	0.2	60.13
Rhamondre Stevenson	41.1	178.8	0.82	5.3	41.1	0.2	30.76
J.J. Taylor	2.5	11	0.04	1.4	9.8	0	3.02
Brandon Bolden	1.2	5.2	0.04	1.2	7.8	0	2.14

Damien Harris: Harris is a non-factor as a receiver (five receptions in 2020) and that likely won't change much with James White returning to Foxboro. The other major obstacle to Harris being a top-24 option is the presence of Cam Newton, who rushed for six times as many touchdowns as Harris (12 to two) in 2020. As long as Newton holds off Mac Jones as the starter, there is the chance/likelihood that he vultures goal-line opportunities from Harris.

James White: With Tom Brady in Tampa, White set five-year lows in targets (62), touches (84), yards from scrimmage (496) and touchdowns (three). White would likely benefit from a quarterback shift from Newton to Jones as it would likely translate into more running back targets and fewer QB rush attempts.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Player	Rec.	Yards	TD	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Jakobi Meyers	58.7	703.5	3.4	1.2	5.4	0.02	120.76
Nelson Agholor	47.3	634.9	3.5	0	0	0	108.14
Kendrick Bourne	35.9	448.7	2.5	0	0	0	77.82
N'Keal Harry	33.6	393.9	2.6	1	6	0.02	72.51
Gunner Olszewski	2.6	29.4	0.2	1.5	6.9	0.03	6.31

TIGHT ENDS

Player	Rec.	Yards	TD	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Jonnu Smith	41.3	495.8	3.2	3.7	31.5	0.19	93.72
Hunter Henry	43.2	482	3.1	0	0	0	88.4
Devin Asiasi	4.4	47	0.4	0	0	0	9.3
Dalton Keene	2.6	27.4	0.2	0	0	0	5.24

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Saturday, November 21, 2020

Week 11 Fantasy Football RB Start'em, Sit'em

The decision on which player to start, or sit, largely comes down to the options on your roster (and/or possibly the players available on your league's waiver wire).

As an example, Kalen Ballage is listed below as a "start" for Week 11. And I'd certainly be comfortable going into Week 11 with him as one of my starting running backs.

Then again, Ballage may be a "sit" for your team.

In other words, if you own Alvin Kamara, Miles Sanders and Ballage, you should start Kamara and Sanders and, in turn, bench Ballage if you can only start two running backs.

For a more direct answer on whether we would start Player X over Player Y, check our Week 11 Fantasy Football Rankings. Instead of making those direct comparisons, the goal here is to highlight players that we like, or dislike, for the week.

Week 11 Fantasy Football RB Start'em

Damien Harris, New England Patriots (at HOU)

In an offense that has generally struggled, Harris has been one of the few bright spots this season. Coming off career highs, Harris carried the ball 22 times for 121 yards against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 10. The second-year back now has reached the 100-yard rushing milestone in half (three) of his six games played this season.

While he's a non-factor as a receiver (only two targets this season), Harris has been incredibly efficient as a runner. Not only is he averaging 5.5 yards per carry on the season, but he has exceeded 5.0 YPC in five of six games.

No team has allowed more YPC to opposing running backs than the Houston Texans (5.53) this season. In addition, only the Detroit Lions (13) have allowed more rushing touchdowns than the Texans (11).

Kalen Ballage, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. NYJ)

Ballage is playing for his third team in a year and the third-year back continues his revenge-game tour in Week 11. The former fourth-round pick of the Miami Dolphins had 23 touches -- 18 carries and five receptions -- for 102 scrimmage yards against the Dolphins last week. He now has 40 total touches in his past two games.

Eventually (and maybe soon), Austin Ekeler will return to take over lead-back duties for the Chargers. Until then, Ballage should continue to lead the backfield as the Chargers face the New York Jets this week.

The Jets have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season. Ballage should be aided by positive game script as the Chargers are nearly double-digit favorites and one of the week's highest implied totals.

Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team (vs. CIN)

Fantasy owners may wish that J.D. McKissic was less involved, but Gibson has finished as a top-11 weekly fantasy running back in each of his past three games. Excluding a modest Week 1 performance, Gibson has finished as a top-11 back in four of his past eight games and no worse than RB29 (flex range) during that eight-game span. On the year, the rookie out of Memphis has performed as a top-12 running back in all scoring formats.

As noted above, the Texans have allowed the highest YPC to running backs this season. The Cincinnati Bengals have allowed the second-most (5.21).

Duke Johnson, Houston Texans (vs. NE)

Not only was it a disappointing performance for Johnson, but Houston's entire offense struggled in Week 10. Things should be better for Johnson (and Houston overall) in Week 11.

With David Johnson on IR, Duke will continue to dominate backfield touches. Aside from one C.J. Prosise reception, Johnson had all of the other 14 running back touches in Week 10. Surprisingly, he was held catchless after hauling in nine receptions over the previous two weeks combined. It would be realistic to expect him to approach the 20 touches he had in Week 9 and finish as a mid-range RB2 this week.

Week 11 Fantasy Football RB Sit'em

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts (vs. GB)

It's an ideal matchup for the Colts running backs as the Green Bay Packers have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. Unfortunately for Taylor's fantasy owners, there is little reason for confidence.

After starting his career with 13-plus touches in seven consecutive games, Taylor has single-digit touches in back-to-back weeks. In addition, Taylor ranks third on the team during that span in running back touches -- Nyheim Hines (21), Jordan Wilkins (21) and Taylor (17).

Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams (at TB)

Speaking of uncertain workloads, the Rams employ a three-headed backfield as well. Now that rookie Cam Akers is healthy, he has double-digit touches in back-to-back games. Last week, Akers (10) had more touches than both Henderson (eight) and Malcolm Brown (eight).

After averaging 15.5 touches per week from Weeks 2 to 7, Henderson has single-digit touches in back-to-back games. If the team's trio of backs remain (roughly) equally involved, none of them are worth starting in Week 11 in a difficult matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. No team has allowed fewer YPC to opposing running backs than the Bucs (3.03) this season.

J.K. Dobbins/Mark Ingram, Baltimore Ravens (vs. TEN)

Like with the trio backfields above, the Ravens employ similar usage with Dobbins, Ingram and Gus Edwards. With all three healthy again last week, none had more than eight touches -- Edwards (eight), Ingram (seven) and Dobbins (six) -- in Week 10. In the games where all three backs were active, there has been only one time where a back had more than 11 touches (Edwards, 14 in Week 6).

So, even though the Tennessee Titans allow the eighth-most fantasy points to the position, can any of the team's back take advantage? More than likely, the answer is no.

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Wednesday, August 23, 2023

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Wednesday, May 17, 2023

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Monday, September 5, 2022

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Saturday, September 25, 2021

Week 3 Fantasy Football RB Start'em

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Wednesday, September 1, 2021

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Friday, August 20, 2021

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Wednesday, August 4, 2021

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Saturday, November 21, 2020

Week 11 Fantasy Football RB Start'em

Week 11 Fantasy Football RB Sit'em

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