With that said, here are my Week 4 NFL picks against the spread:
New England Patriots -9 over Carolina Panthers (3 Units)
There is no doubt about New England's ability to put up points. After a relatively slow start for Tom Brady, he has thrown for a total of 825 yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions in his past two games. And even though there is no Julian Edelman, there is no shortage of weapons for Brady with Rob Gronkowski, Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan, etc.
On the other side of the ball, we should question New England's ability to slow down anyone. Houston rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson nearly pulled off an upset in Foxboro despite Brady's five touchdowns. The Patriots have allowed a 300-yard passer and multiple passing touchdowns in all three games this season.
That said, do you trust Cam Newton to be able exploit the Patriots defense this week? I don't. The 2015 league MVP has not looked like the MVP version. Just last week at home against the Saints, Newton threw for 167 yards, no touchdowns and three interceptions as the Panthers lost by 21. I expect the Pats to win by double digits this week.
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Cincinnati Bengals -3 over Cleveland Browns (4 Units)
The Battle of Ohio features a pair of winless teams. So, on a positive note, that will change for at least one of these teams. The Bengals have had their share of issues, but I expect them to get their first win of the season this week. After calling for the ball more, A.J. Green had 10/111/1 against the Packers last week and I see another monster game in AJG's near-term future.
New York Giants +3 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3 Units)
Losing to a division rival on a 61-yard walk-off field goal, the Giants will look to get their first win of the season in Tampa this weekend. Their offensive line is clearly an issue, but we could see more quick passes from Eli Manning and the presence of a healthy Odell Beckham makes a big difference for this offense. Even if the G-Men don't get their first win of the season, I expect them to at least keep this game close so I'll take the points here.
Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5 over New York Jets (3 Units)
The Jets are coming off a surprising beat-down of the Dolphins, but they are still one of the league's worst teams in the league. It's always difficult to trust a Blake Bortles-led offense, but Jacksonville's defense is one of the best in the league. In fact, they have the league's best cornerback duo with Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. Points will be at a premium for Josh McCown and the Jets, which could allow the Jags to run the ball often behind rookie Leonard Fournette.
- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.
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