Sunday, November 12, 2017

Week 10 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Hanson)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

With that said, here are my Week 10 NFL picks against the spread:

New England Patriots -7.5 over Denver Broncos (3 Units)

Losers of four games in a row, the Broncos have been outscored by a margin of 124-52 during that stretch. Denver may rank second in total defense (280.8 YPG allowed), but they currently rank 25th in scoring defense (24.8 PPG allowed) this season and struggle (in relative terms) at defending tight ends. The top-five highest receiving yards against Denver this season is Travis Kelce (7/133/1), Jason Witten (10/97/1), Alshon Jeffery (6/84/2), Evan Engram (5/82/1) and Hunter Henry (4/73). In other words, good luck slowing down Rob Gronkowski. Meanwhile, points should be at a premium for Brock Osweiler and the Broncos.

Atlanta Falcons -3.5 over Dallas Cowboys (2 Units)

No Ezekiel Elliott. No Tyron Smith. Dez Bryant at less than 100 percent. While I still expect Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense to move the ball against the Falcons, they are clearly not at their most explosive. Losers of four of five games, the Falcons offense has struggled to put up points as they have been held to fewer than 20 in all four of their losses over the span. Perhaps this is more of a hunch (or some reverse psychology as a Cowboys fan), but I expect the Falcons offense to break out and cover the 3.5-point spread.

Washington Redskins +1.5 over Minnesota Vikings (2 Units)

As John Trifone discussed in his Week 10 NFL picks, the Vikings have had an easier schedule (with their wins) than Washington has had (with their losses). One of my favorite bets in general is small home favorites and I expect Kirk Cousins and the Redskins to get the win outright at home this weekend.

- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

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