Sunday, October 3, 2021

Week 4 Fantasy Football WR Start'em, Sit'em

The decision on which player to start, or sit, largely comes down to the options on your roster (and/or possibly the players available on your league's waiver wire).

As an example, Deebo Samuel is listed below as a "start" for Week 4. And I'd certainly be comfortable going into Week 4 with him as my starting quarterback.

Then again, Samuel may be a "sit" for your team.

In other words, if you roster Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson and Samuel and start only two receivers, you should start Kupp and Jefferson and, in turn, bench Samuel.

For a more direct answer on whether we would start Player X over Player Y, check our Week 4 Fantasy Football Rankings. Instead of making those direct comparisons, the goal here is to highlight players that we like, or dislike, for the week.

Week 4 Fantasy Football WR Start'em

Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. LV)

As much as I liked Williams in the preseason (FantasyPros ECR), the fifth-year receiver has exceeded the expectations of his strongest supporters. The No. 7 overall pick in 2017 has shown glimpses of his potential -- double-digit touchdowns in 2018, a league-best 20.4 Y/R and a 1,000-yard season in 2019, etc., but everything is coming together this season for the former first-rounder.

Coming off his best fantasy performance of the season (7/122/2), Williams has at least nine targets, seven catches and 82 yards in every game this season and has a four-game scoring streak going back to the final game of 2020. Only Cooper Kupp has scored more fantasy points than Williams this season.

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers (vs. SEA)

Samuel had his worst game of the season last week with five catches for 52 yards and two rush attempts for no yards. That said, he had double-digit targets and now has a total of 30 targets through three games in addition to four carries.

Brandon Aiyuk (4/37/1, six targets) had his best game of the season last week, but it's still Samuel that is the clear WR1 on this team in terms of fantasy expectations. The 49ers have one of the week's highest implied totals in what is expected to a close game with a total north of 50 points.

Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans (at BUF)

The Bills have allowed a league-low fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season and Tre'Davious White spent much of Week 3 shadowing Washington's Terry McLaurin. With Houston having a clear-cut WR1, Cooks will likely attract shadow coverage from White this week as well.

White's shadow coverage knocks Cooks' outlook down a notch, but he's been a major bright spot for Houston's offense. A top-seven fantasy scorer, Cooks has lines of 5/132, 9/78/1 and 9/112, respectively, and he has a total of 32 targets through three weeks. I'd still consider him a low-end WR2 this week.

Jakobi Meyers, New England Patriots (vs. TB)

While the Patriots don't want to get into a shootout with Tom Brady in his return to Foxboro, the offense may struggle to get anything going on the ground as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have one of the league's best run defenses.

Maybe this won't be the week that he scores his first NFL touchdown, but Meyers should continue to see the largest target share with the potential for double-digit targets. On the year, Meyers has 19 catches for 176 yards on 29 targets. No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing receivers this season than the Buccaneers and Meyers is ranked inside my top-30 fantasy wide receivers this week.

Week 4 Fantasy Football WR Sit'em

Kenny Golladay, New York Giants (at NO)

Up to this point, Golladay hasn't been as productive as fantasy managers would have hoped -- 11/166/0 on 19 targets. Based on half-PPR fantasy points scored, the newcomer has performed as the weekly WR55, WR67 and WR45, respectively. With both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton already ruled out, perhaps this is the week that Golladay has his best performance. Considering that he will likely face shadow coverage from Marshon Lattimore, perhaps it's better to wait another week.

Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers (at DAL)

It's been a frustrating start to the season for Anderson and his fantasy managers. Coming off a career-best season (95/1,096/3), Anderson has just one catch in two of his three games. On the year, he has what's comparable to a good game (5/103/1) over a period of three games. Despite the plus matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, ninth-most FPA to opposing wide receivers, his target share is too inconsistent to count on Anderson this week.

Marquez Callaway, New Orleans Saints (vs. NYG)

No player generated more buzz in the month of August, which led to an enormous spike in Callaway's ADP. Callaway (18.03%) is second on the team behind Alvin Kamara (22.95%) in target share, but the volume has been insufficient to support any pass-catcher (WR/TE) as a reliable option.

Jameis Winston has yet to throw more than 22 pass attempts in a game and he's averaging only 129 passing yards per game with a season high of 148. No team has a lower pass-play percentage than the Saints (43.03%). Callaway has turned his 11 targets into a 7/63/1 (9.0 Y/R) line. Until we see more from this offense, Kamara is the only Saint that should be in fantasy lineups.

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