Before the 2023 NFL season had started, it seemed just as likely that running back Jonathan Taylor would play for someone else as he would play for the Indianapolis Colts this season.
We now have clarity on Taylor's situation, however, as he and the Colts have agreed to a three-year extension worth $42 million including $26.5 million in guarantees, per ESPN's Adam Schefter.
As Schefter notes, it's the first time that a running back has secured a long-term deal of more than $10 million per year since Nick Chubb did so in 2021.
Taylor missed the first four games while placed on the PUP list, and Zack Moss has been a productive fantasy running back — RB10, RB4 and RB21 (half-PPR scoring) — in his three games this season. That said, Taylor will obviously dominate backfield touches going forward.
Anthony Richardson: Indianapolis was arguably the ideal landing spot for Richardson. After all, new coach Shane Steichen tailored Philadelphia's offense to best suit the skill set of Jalen Hurts. Ups and downs should be expected for Richardson, but his elite athletic profile gives him enormous rushing upside from the start.
Jonathan Taylor: There is a lot of uncertainty with Taylor heading into 2023, but one thing is certain — he will miss a minimum of four games. Even though the self-imposed deadline to find a trade partner has passed, will he be dealt at some point before the official trade deadline (Oct. 31st at 4 p.m. ET)? If he's not traded, is he really physically unable to perform? Can we count on Jim Irsay to not make a bad situation even worse (again) over the next four-plus weeks, even though GM Chris Ballard says that "relationships are repairable"? Will he pull a Le'Veon Bell if he's still a Colt after Oct. 31st? If he plays and gets banged up, will he shut it down? On the other hand, if we knew that he'd only miss four games, he'd be a top 10 fantasy running back from Week 5 on.
Zack Moss: Given the current tension between Taylor and the team, it potentially opens up significant opportunities for the team's other backs even beyond Week 4. Moss should be the team's top non-J.T. back (based on the current roster) when he's healthy, but he's been out with a broken arm. It's unclear if he'll be available for Week 1, but Shane Steichen says Moss is "trending in the right direction."
Deon Jackson: Jackson had five games with double-digit touches in 2022 including one with double-digit carries (12) and double-digit receptions (10) in Week 6 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. With Taylor (PUP) out and the uncertain status for Moss, Jackson could be in line for a sizable Week 1 role against the Jaguars.
Michael Pittman Jr.: Pittman set a career high in receptions (99) while averaging a career low in Y/R (9.3) in 2022. While he should lead the receiving corps across the board, fantasy managers should expect some week-to-week inconsistency from Pittman as his rookie quarterback adjusts to the NFL.
Alec Pierce: As noted with Pittman, the offense (and passing game in particular) will likely go through some growing pains, and week-to-week inconsistency is reasonable to expect from Indy's pass catchers. That said, the former second-round pick has the potential to build upon last year's solid rookie numbers (41/593/2, 14.5 Y/R). Both Pierce and Anthony Richardson's strengths align in the vertical passing game, which makes Pierce an intriguing late-round stack with Richardson in best ball formats.
Jelani Woods: Woods (hamstring) will unfortunately begin the season on IR, which means he'll miss at least the first four games of the season. An outstanding athlete (4.61 40-yard dash) at his size (6-7, 259), he had some sleeper appeal in an offense that would have likely spread tight end snaps and targets around less than recent coaching staffs. I still expect him to lead the tight end group once he's able to return, but he's best left on the waiver wire in fantasy drafts.
Anthony Richardson: Indianapolis was arguably the ideal landing spot for Richardson. After all, new coach Shane Steichen tailored Philadelphia's offense to best suit the skill set of Jalen Hurts. Ups and downs should be expected for Richardson, but his elite athletic profile gives him enormous rushing upside from the start.
Jonathan Taylor: When healthy and happy, Taylor has RB1 overall upside. After all, he's just two seasons removed from finishing as fantasy football's RB1. Beyond what he can do on the football field, however, it's been a summer full of concerns — requesting a trade, leaving and returning to camp (multiple times), PUP list, etc. Another concern is the potential for Anthony Richardson to steal carries from Taylor, who also may see fewer checkdowns if Richardson tucks it and runs when plays break down.
Zack Moss: Given the current tension between Taylor and the team, it potentially opens up significant opportunities for the team's other backs. Moss should be the team's RB2 (RB1 if Taylor misses time) when he's healthy, but he's currently out with a broken arm. His timetable puts his return close to Week 1.
Deon Jackson: Jackson had five games with double-digit touches in 2022 including one with double-digit carries (12) and double-digit receptions (10) in Week 6 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. There is a non-zero chance that Jackson has a sizable Week 1 role against the Jaguars, given the uncertainty currently surrounding Taylor and Moss.
Michael Pittman Jr.: Pittman set a career high in receptions (99) while averaging a career low in Y/R (9.3) in 2022. While he should lead the receiving corps across the board, fantasy managers should expect some week-to-week inconsistency from Pittman as his rookie quarterback adjusts to the NFL.
Alec Pierce: As noted with Pittman, the offense (and passing game in particular) will likely go through some growing pains, and week-to-week inconsistency is reasonable to expect from Indy's pass catchers. That said, the former second-round pick has the potential to build upon last year's solid rookie numbers (41/593/2, 14.5 Y/R). Both Pierce and Anthony Richardson's strengths align in the vertical passing game, which makes Pierce an intriguing late-round stack with Richardson in best ball formats.
Jelani Woods: Woods is an outstanding athlete (4.61 40-yard dash) for someone his size (6-7, 259) and he heads into his second season with some sleeper appeal. Shane Steichen is less likely to spread tight end snaps around the way that Frank Reich has in the past, and Woods should be the biggest benefactor. As the IndyStar notes, "Woods is the only Indianapolis tight end who's shown he has the athleticism to stretch the field the way [Dallas] Goedert can."
Anthony Richardson: Indianapolis was arguably the ideal landing spot for Richardson. After all, new coach Shane Steichen tailored Philadelphia's offense to best suit the skill set of Jalen Hurts. Ups and downs should be expected for Richardson, but his elite athletic profile gives him enormous rushing upside from the start. Given his built-in familiarity with the offense, however, it's possible that Gardner Minshew starts Week 1 before Richardson is eased in, but it looks like Richardson will be the starter.
Jonathan Taylor: Taylor is one season removed from finishing as fantasy football's overall RB1, but he's also just one week removed from requesting a trade. Another (and more minor) concern is the potential for Anthony Richardson to steal carries from Taylor, who may also see fewer checkdowns if Richardson tucks it and runs when plays break down.
Zack Moss: Taylor's recent trade request makes both Moss and Deon Jackson immediately more fantasy-relevant, although it seems unlikely that the Colts will honor that request. That said, Moss is out for the next 4-6 weeks following surgery after recently breaking his arm. The six-week timetable puts his Week 1 status into question.
Deon Jackson: Jackson had five games with double-digit touches in 2022 including one with double-digit carries (12) and double-digit receptions (10) in Week 6 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. While Moss most likely settles in as the RB2 behind Taylor, Moss is out 4-6 weeks and that timetable puts Moss's status for the season opener against the Jags into question.
Michael Pittman Jr.: Pittman set a career high in receptions (99) while averaging a career low in Y/R (9.3) in 2022. While he should lead the receiving corps across the board, fantasy managers should expect some week-to-week inconsistency from Pittman as his rookie quarterback adjusts to the NFL.
Alec Pierce: As noted with Pittman, the offense (and passing game in particular) will likely go through some growing pains, and week-to-week inconsistency is reasonable to expect from Indy's pass catchers. That said, the former second-round pick has potential to build upon last year's solid rookie numbers (41/593/2, 14.5 Y/R). Both Pierce and Anthony Richardson's strengths are in the vertical passing game, which makes Pierce an intriguing late-round stack with Richardson in best ball formats.
Jelani Woods: Woods is an outstanding athlete (4.61 40-yard dash) for someone his size (6-7, 259) and he heads into his second season with some sleeper appeal. Shane Steichen is less likely to spread tight end snaps around the way that Frank Reich has in the past, and Woods could be the biggest benefactor. As the IndyStar notes, "Woods is the only Indianapolis tight end who's shown he has the athleticism to stretch the field the way [Dallas] Goedert can."
Anthony Richardson: Indianapolis was arguably the most ideal landing spot for Richardson. After all, new coach Shane Steichen tailored Philadelphia's offense to best suit the skill set of Jalen Hurts. Ups and downs should be expected for Richardson, but his elite athletic profile gives him enormous rushing upside from the start. Given his built-in familiarity with the offense, however, it's possible that Gardner Minshew starts Week 1 before Richardson is eased in, but that has yet to be (officially) determined.
Jonathan Taylor: An ankle injury and the team's offensive struggles limited Taylor last season, but he was fantasy football's overall RB1 in 2021. If there's a concern, it's the potential for Anthony Richardson to steal carries from Taylor, who may also see fewer checkdowns if Richardson tucks it and runs when plays break down.
Michael Pittman Jr.: Pittman set a career high in receptions (99) while averaging a career low in Y/R (9.3) in 2022. While he should lead the receiving corps across the board, fantasy managers should expect some week-to-week inconsistency from Pittman as his rookie quarterback adjusts to the NFL.
Alec Pierce: As noted with Pittman, the offense will likely go through some growing pains and week-to-week inconsistency is reasonable to expect from Indy's pass catchers. That said, the former second-round pick has potential to build upon last year's solid rookie numbers (41/593/2, 14.5 Y/R). The strengths of Pierce and Anthony Richardson match well in the vertical passing game, making the duo an intriguing stack in best ball formats.
Jelani Woods: Woods is an outstanding athlete (4.61 40-yard dash) for someone his size (6-7, 259) and he heads into his second season with some sleeper appeal. Shane Steichen is less likely to spread tight end snaps around the way that Frank Reich has in the past, and Woods could be the biggest benefactor. As the IndyStar notes, "Woods is the only Indianapolis tight end who's shown he has the athleticism to stretch the field the way [Dallas] Goedert can."
The best way to become good at something is to practice. So, what should you do if you want to draft a better fantasy football team?
Practice, of course!
Leading up to the start of the 2022 NFL season, we will use the 2022 Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator (powered by FantasyPros) to complete fantasy football mock drafts.
We will use a variety of scoring formats -- PPR, half-PPR, standard scoring and even 2-QB leagues, league sizes and draft slots. The goal is to give you a good representation of the team that you may be able to construct given your league settings and the rationale of why we made the picks we did.
Taylor led the NFL in rush attempts (332), rushing yards (1,811) and rushing touchdowns (18) in addition to yards from scrimmage (2,171) and total touchdowns (20) in 2021. While he isn't as productive of a receiver as, say, Austin Ekeler or Christian McCaffrey (when healthy), he has a total of 76 catches for 659 yards over the past two seasons as well so he contributes in that aspect as well.
After missing nine games in 2020, Samuel had a breakout campaign (77/1,405/6 receiving and 59/365/8 rushing) in 2021. Samuel's physical play style and role puts him at increased risk for injury, but the do-it-all talent is a top-five receiver whenever he's on the field.
Sutton broke out in his second season (2019) with 72 catches for 1,112 yards and six touchdowns, but then he tore his ACL at the beginning of the 2020 season. Given Russell Wilson's accuracy as a deep passer, Sutton could be positioned to have the best season of his career. The 6-foot-4 receiver has averaged 15.2 yards per reception so far in his career.
One of the most dynamic mismatches at his position, Waller had a massive 27.7% target share in his last full season (2020). Given the Raiders traded for Davante Adams this offseason, however, Waller's days of oversized target shares are likely over, but he's still a top-five fantasy tight end.
Entering his third season as the team's clear No. 1 wide receiver, Mooney is coming off an 81/1,055/4 season in 2021 despite Chicago's passing game struggles overall. Depending on how much improvement we see from Justin Fields in his second season, there is plenty of upside with Mooney. And there is virtually zero downside here as my WR4.
Pierce never exceeded 106 carries in any season in Gainesville, but the former Gator has featured-back size who runs with physicality and good contact balance. While Rex Burkhead will handle most of the third-down reps and the Texans are going to trail often, Pierce should earn large enough of a workload to put him in the RB2 mix.
Stevenson carried the ball 133 times for 606 yards (4.56 YPC) and five touchdowns as a rookie, and added 14 catches for 123 yards. He had 19-plus carries in three games last season and finished with 100-plus rushing yards and a pair of scores in two of them. Bill Belichick has talked up Stevenson's development in the pass game and said "it might even become a strength." Even if Harris enters the season as the 1A to Stevenson's 1B, it wouldn't be a shock if the former Sooner emerges as the team's most productive back.
Even though Ezekiel Elliott played a full 17-game slate in 2021, Pollard earned an expanded role with career highs in touches (169) and scrimmage yards (1,056). Pollard is one of my favorite backs to target in 2022, as he has enormous upside if Elliott misses any time, but he has stand-alone flex value even if Elliott doesn't.
One of the few bright spots in New York's offense last year, Carter turned his 183 touches as a fourth-round rookie into 964 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns. Even though Breece Hall has the higher draft pedigree, Carter goes into his second season as the starter and as an undervalued option available many rounds later than Hall in drafts.
Robinson has been highly productive when on the field. Through two seasons, Robinson has averaged 4.55 yards per carry, racked up 2,403 scrimmage yards, hauled in 80 receptions and scored 18 total touchdowns. Even though Travis Etienne will score more fantasy points, there is little risk with Robinson at the end of this five-RB run.
Excluding 2020 when he missed 11 games, Prescott has finished as fantasy's QB6, QB11, QB10, QB2 and QB7, respectively, in his last five full seasons. He set a career high in 2021 in both passing touchdowns (37) and TD% (6.2), but he averaged a career low in rush attempts (3.0) and rushing yards (9.1) per game and it was the first time he had fewer than three rushing scores in a season. The ceiling and floor are lower than they were last season, but he's a decent value waiting this long.
Signing a one-year deal to play for the Lions, Chark missed nearly all of the 2021 season, but the former Jag has a 1,000-yard season (73/1,008/8 in 2019) under his belt. He's developed good chemistry with Jared Goff leading into the season.
While it seemed like a reach in April, the Giants new front office and coaching staff liked Robinson enough to use the 43rd overall pick on him. When NBC's Peter King attended Giants' camp, he wrote that Robinson "stood out" due to "his versatility and confidence." Given the concerns with the team's other three top receivers, Robinson could turn out to become a draft-day bargain for fantasy managers.
Matt Ryan: Ryan posted multi-year lows in TD% (3.6) and Y/A (7.1) in 2021, his age-36 season, and his QB19 fantasy finish was tied for the worst of his career. While he provides the Colts with an upgrade over Carson Wentz, Ryan isn't much more than a streaming option at this point of his career.
Jonathan Taylor: Taylor led the NFL in rush attempts (332), rushing yards (1,811) and rushing touchdowns (18) in addition to yards from scrimmage (2,171) and total touchdowns (20) in 2021. While he isn't as productive of a receiver as, say, Austin Ekeler or Christian McCaffrey (when healthy), he has a total of 76 catches for 659 yards over the past two seasons as well so he contributes in that aspect as well.
Nyheim Hines: As a change-of-pace option to Jonathan Taylor, Hines has a minimum of 40 catches in each of his four NFL seasons. That said, it would take an injury to Taylor for Hines to become a weekly play outside of bye weeks.
Michael Pittman Jr.: Pittman took a big step forward in his second season with a 25.7% target share and finished with 88 catches, 1,082 yards and six touchdowns. Finishing as a top-17 fantasy receiver across all scoring formats, Pittman has a chance to take another step forward in 2022.
Parris Campbell: The Colts drafted Campbell in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft, but he's managed to play only 15 games over the past three seasons. Can he reverse his bad luck in 2022 and stay healthy?
Alec Pierce: Pierce's combination of size (6' 3" and 213 pounds), speed (4.41 40-yard dash) and leaping ability (40.5" vertical jump) should lead to some big plays in the Colts offense. Especially given Campbell's durability history, the second-round receiver has a chance to make an immediate impact.
Mo Alie-Cox: Alie-Cox had 24 catches for 316 yards and four touchdowns last season, but there is a good chance that he's more involved in the passing game in 2022 following Jack Doyle's retirement this offseason. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if he finished second among the team's receivers and tight ends in receiving.
Matt Ryan: Ryan posted multi-year lows in TD% (3.6) and Y/A (7.1) in 2021, his age-36 season, and his QB19 fantasy finish was tied for the worst of his career. While he provides the Colts with an upgrade over Carson Wentz, Ryan isn't much more than a streaming option at this point of his career.
Jonathan Taylor: Taylor led the NFL in rush attempts (332), rushing yards (1,811) and rushing touchdowns (18) in addition to yards from scrimmage (2,171) and total touchdowns (20) in 2021. While he isn't as productive of a receiver as, say, Austin Ekeler or Christian McCaffrey (when healthy), he has a total of 76 catches for 659 yards over the past two seasons as well so he contributes in that aspect as well.
Nyheim Hines: As a change-of-pace option to Jonathan Taylor, Hines has a minimum of 40 catches in each of his four NFL seasons. That said, it would take an injury to Taylor for Hines to become a weekly play outside of bye weeks.
Michael Pittman Jr.: Pittman took a big step forward in his second season with a 25.7% target share and finished with 88 catches, 1,082 yards and six touchdowns. Finishing as a top-17 fantasy receiver across all scoring formats, Pittman has a chance to take another step forward in 2022.
Parris Campbell: The Colts drafted Campbell in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft, but he's managed to play only 15 games over the past three seasons. Can he reverse his bad luck in 2022 and stay healthy? So far, he's established a good rapport with new quarterback Matt Ryan.
Alec Pierce: Pierce's combination of size (6' 3" and 213 pounds), speed (4.41 40-yard dash) and leaping ability (40.5" vertical jump) should lead to some big plays in the Colts offense. Especially given Campbell's durability history, the second-round receiver has a chance to make an immediate impact.
Mo Alie-Cox: Alie-Cox had 24 catches for 316 yards and four touchdowns last season, but there is a good chance that he's more involved in the passing game in 2022 following Jack Doyle's retirement this offseason. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if he finished second among the team's receivers and tight ends in receiving.
This is way too easy. Taylor isn't only the Colts' MVP, he is a legitimate league MVP contender. Taylor leads the NFL in rushing attempts (297), yards (1,626) and touchdowns (17). Taylor's production has helped lighten quarterback Carson Wentz's load significantly, and the running back's ability to dominate on the ground helps keep a defense that has forced 31 turnovers this season fresh throughout the game. -- Mike Wells
Carson Wentz worked through his progressions, slid to his left to buy time, kept his eyes downfield and fired a laser into the hands of Dez Patmon in the back of the end zone. The brilliant touchdown connection -- on third-and-9, no less -- served as the dagger strike in an impressive road win at Arizona and a declarative statement that Wentz is once again a QB to be reckoned with in the NFL. The former No. 2 overall pick isn't perfect -- he's still prone to the occasional head-scratching decision -- but when he's locked in, Wentz makes the Colts look like the best team in football.
QB Carson Wentz's notion of holiday gifting? Various meats, bourbon and Yeti gear to his offensive linemen, and two TD passes during Saturday night's win in the desert. Advantage: Prescott.
Is he The Guy? Hmm. How can we not say yes? But ... while Carson Wentz has had a nice comeback season, he still makes boneheaded decisions and dumb throws, and we're pretty sure that's how the Colts' season ends in the playoffs. So, it's a no. (Wentz was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Tuesday, and not being vaccinated probably won't help his case long-term, either).
Carson Wentz: The initial timetable was wide (5-12 weeks), but all indications point to Wentz (foot surgery) being ready for Week 1 against the Saints. Being reunited with Frank Reich, there is some optimism for Wentz to rebound. In their final season together in Philadelphia (2017), Wentz led the NFL in both TD% (7.5%) and QBR (78.5), scored the fifth-most fantasy points (despite missing three games) and was selected to the AP All-Pro Second Team.
Jonathan Taylor: Over his final seven games of the season including a playoff loss, Taylor handled a massive 156 touches, racked up 921 yards and scored nine total touchdowns. Excluding that playoff appearance, Taylor ranked top four in the NFL in touches, YFS, touchdowns and half-PPR fantasy points from Week 11 on. Running behind one of the league's best offensive lines, Taylor carries plenty of momentum with him into 2021 even though the Colts re-signed Marlon Mack.
Nyheim Hines: One of the better receiving backs in the league, Hines finished as a top-24 running back across all scoring formats (RB15 in PPR, RB20 in half-PPR and RB24 in standard) in 2020. Only Alvin Kamara (83) and J.D. McKissic (80) had more receptions than Hines (63) last season.
Michael Pittman Jr.: Pittman Jr. scored only one touchdown as a rookie in 13 games, but the big-bodied receiver (6-4, 223) should be utilized as a red-zone weapon more often in 2021. The second-year wideout is a breakout candidate and it wouldn't be a surprise if he emerged as the team's WR1.
T.Y. Hilton: Over the past two seasons, Hilton averaged 50.8 (2020) and 50.1 (2019) YPG, which are the two lowest of his NFL career. A WR4/WR5 in fantasy drafts, the 31-year-old vet could potentially finish the season as Indy's WR3 as the youngsters emerge.
Parris Campbell: After an injury-plagued rookie season, Campbell, a second-round pick in 2019, played only two snaps in Week 2 prior to a PCL injury that ended his 2020 season. Before the injury, he had 6/71 on nine targets and a nine-yard rush attempt in Week 1 last season. If he can stay healthy, he could challenge Hilton and Pittman as the team's most productive fantasy receiver.
Jack Doyle: Over the past four seasons, Doyle's per-game average has declined every season -- 46.0 YPG (2017), 40.8 (2018), 28.0 (2019) and 17.9 (2020). While the Colts run a TE-friendly offense, Doyle will go undrafted in all but the deepest of TE-premium leagues.
