Jimmy Garoppolo: Replacing Derek Carr with Jimmy Garoppolo is a lateral move, at best, for the Raiders and the offense's outlook overall. From a fantasy perspective, Jimmy G. offers no upside as a runner and is a middling QB2, at best.
Josh Jacobs: Jacobs led the NFL in rushing yards (1,653), yards from scrimmage (2,053) and touches (393) in 2022. He dominated the team's running back touches, as the rest of the team's backs had a total of 77 (16.4%). In addition, Jacobs averaged a career-high 4.9 YPC and has now exceeded 50 catches in back-to-back seasons. While there was plenty of offseason drama around his status, Jacobs is back in the building on a one-year, $12 million contract.
Zamir White: White, a fourth-round pick in 2022, played much less than expected during his rookie season (17 carries in 2022). The Athletic's Tashan Reed wrote in June that "the Raiders may call on White to balance out the workload a bit more in 2023." Even though Jacobs is back, White is a late-round sleeper worth stashing on your fantasy bench(es).
Davante Adams: In his first season without Aaron Rodgers, Adams was targeted a career-high 180 times and finished with 100 catches for 1,516 yards and a league-leading 14 touchdowns. Adams remains (one of) the league's best red zone weapon with double-digit touchdowns in six of the past seven seasons.
Jakobi Meyers: Meyers finished with 67 catches for 804 yards and six touchdowns in 2022 as he averaged a career-high 57.4 YPG. Given his familiarity with the offense and that Darren Waller is now a Giant, Meyers should rank (albeit a distant) second on the team in receiving, producing flex numbers in 2023.
Michael Mayer: While he's not an elite athlete, Mayer is a savvy route-runner with strong hands who led Notre Dame in receiving all three years he was in South Bend. His all-around skill set could accelerate his adjustment to the NFL.
Austin Hooper: Hooper was a top-10 fantasy tight end in back-to-back seasons in 2018 and 2019, respectively, but that feels like an eternity ago. The Raiders drafted Michael Mayer in the second round, and although rookie tight ends tend to start slowly, Mayer is clearly their tight end of the future.
Jimmy Garoppolo: Replacing Derek Carr with Jimmy Garoppolo is a lateral move, at best, for the Raiders and the offense's outlook overall. From a fantasy perspective, Jimmy G. offers no upside as a runner and is a middling QB2, at best.
Josh Jacobs: Jacobs led the NFL in rushing yards (1,653), yards from scrimmage (2,053) and touches (393) in 2022. He dominated the team's running back touches, as the rest of the team's backs had a total of 77 (16.4%). In addition, Jacobs averaged a career-high 4.9 YPC and has now exceeded 50 catches in back-to-back seasons. While there was plenty of offseason drama around his status, Jacobs is back in the building on a one-year, $12 million contract.
Zamir White: White, a fourth-round pick in 2022, played much less than expected during his rookie season (17 carries in 2022). The Athletic's Tashan Reed wrote in June that "the Raiders may call on White to balance out the workload a bit more in 2023." Even though Jacobs is back, White is a final-round sleeper worth stashing on your fantasy bench(es).
Davante Adams: In his first season without Aaron Rodgers, Adams was targeted a career-high 180 times and finished with 100 catches for 1,516 yards and a league-leading 14 touchdowns. Adams remains the league's best red zone weapon with double-digit touchdowns in six of the past seven seasons.
Jakobi Meyers: Meyers finished with 67 catches for 804 yards and six touchdowns in 2022 as he averaged a career-high 57.4 YPG. Given his familiarity with the offense and that Darren Waller is now a Giant, Meyers should rank (albeit a distant) second on the team in receiving, producing flex numbers in 2023.
Michael Mayer: While he's not an elite athlete, Mayer is a savvy route-runner with strong hands who led Notre Dame in receiving all three years he was in South Bend. His all-around skill set could accelerate his adjustment to the NFL.
Austin Hooper: Hooper was a top-10 fantasy tight end in back-to-back seasons in 2018 and 2019, respectively, but that feels like an eternity ago. The Raiders drafted Michael Mayer in the second round, and although rookie tight ends tend to start slowly, Mayer is clearly their tight end of the future.
Jimmy Garoppolo: Replacing Derek Carr with Jimmy Garoppolo is a lateral move, at best, for the Raiders and the offense's outlook overall. From a fantasy perspective, Jimmy G. offers no upside as a runner and is a middling QB2, at best.
Josh Jacobs: Jacobs led the NFL in rushing yards (1,653), yards from scrimmage (2,053) and touches (393) in 2022. He dominated the team's running back touches, as the rest of the team's backs had a total of 77 (16.4%). In addition, Jacobs averaged a career-high 4.9 YPC and has now exceeded 50 catches in back-to-back seasons. That's the good news, but it's unclear when (or possibly even if) he'll sign his franchise tender after the team and Jacobs failed to reach a long-term agreement before July's deadline.
Zamir White: White, a fourth-round pick in 2022, played much less than expected during his rookie season (17 carries in 2022). The Athletic's Tashan Reed wrote in June that "the Raiders may call on White to balance out the workload a bit more in 2023." At a minimum, White is a sleeper to target near the end of fantasy drafts.
Davante Adams: In his first season without Aaron Rodgers, Adams was targeted a career-high 180 times and finished with 100 catches for 1,516 yards and a league-leading 14 touchdowns. Adams remains the league's best red zone weapon with double-digit touchdowns in six of the past seven seasons.
Jakobi Meyers: Meyers finished with 67 catches for 804 yards and six touchdowns in 2022 as he averaged a career-high 57.4 YPG. Given his familiarity with the offense and that Darren Waller is now a Giant, Meyers should rank (albeit a distant) second on the team in receiving, producing WR3/flex numbers in 2023.
Michael Mayer: While he's not an elite athlete, Mayer is a savvy route-runner with strong hands who led Notre Dame in receiving all three years he was in South Bend. His all-around skill set could accelerate his adjustment to the NFL.
Austin Hooper: Hooper was a top-10 fantasy tight end in back-to-back seasons in 2018 and 2019, respectively, but that feels like an eternity ago. The Raiders drafted Michael Mayer in the second round, and although rookie tight ends tend to start slowly, Mayer is clearly their tight end of the future.
Jimmy Garoppolo: Replacing Derek Carr with Jimmy Garoppolo is a lateral move, at best, for the Raiders and the offense's outlook overall. There are some concerns about Garoppolo's foot following surgery in March as well. Even when healthy, he offers no upside as a runner and is a middling QB2 for fantasy purposes.
Josh Jacobs: Jacobs led the NFL in rushing yards (1,653), yards from scrimmage (2,053) and touches (393) in 2022. He dominated the team's running back touches, as the rest of the team's backs had a total of 77 (16.4%). (How much more involved will Zamir White be in 2023?) In addition, Jacobs averaged a career-high 4.9 YPC and has now exceeded 50 catches in back-to-back seasons. Jacobs has yet to sign his franchise tag, however, and it's unclear when he will.
Zamir White: White, a fourth-round pick in 2022, played much less than expected during his rookie season (17 carries in 2022). The Athletic's Tashan Reed writes that "the Raiders may call on White to balance out the workload a bit more in 2023." Especially if Jacobs and the Raiders don't agree to a long-term extension, White will be a sleeper to target near the end of fantasy drafts.
Davante Adams: In his first season without Aaron Rodgers, Adams was targeted a career-high 180 times and finished with 100 catches for 1,516 yards and a league-leading 14 touchdowns. Adams remains the league's best red zone weapon with double-digit touchdowns in six of the past seven seasons.
Jakobi Meyers: Meyers finished with 67 catches for 804 yards and six touchdowns in 2022, and he averaged a career-high 57.4 YPG. Given his familiarity with the offense and that Darren Waller is now a Giant, Meyers should rank (a distant) second on the team in receiving, producing WR3/flex numbers in 2023.
Austin Hooper: Hooper was a top-10 fantasy tight end in back-to-back seasons in 2018 and 2019, respectively. Playing for his fourth team in five years, Hooper has a chance to lead the position group in fantasy production, but he's unlikely to have any fantasy relevance outside of deep TE-premium leagues. The Raiders drafted Michael Mayer in the second round, and although rookie tight ends tend to start slowly, he's the tight end of the future.
Michael Mayer: While he's not an elite athlete, Mayer is a savvy route-runner with strong hands who led Notre Dame in receiving all three years he was in South Bend. His all-around skill set could accelerate his adjustment to the NFL.
The Jags' top three tight ends are unsigned. Kincaid, an All-Pac-12 player (70 catches, 890 yards, 8 TDs) in 2022, might be better than all of them and would give QB Trevor Lawrence another dangerous weapon for an ascending offense.
Musgrave was getting some late-first/early Day-2 buzz down in Mobile, and while he didn't have a great week, it was certainly easy to see why teams like him. He missed most of '22 with an injury but he's well built, long, and has the athleticism to consistently separate from both safeties and linebackers. His blocking is a work in progress but he'll be a contributor in the passing game from Day 1.
The Jaguars were one of the surprise teams of the 2022 season. With the opportunity to continue to build, I believe that they need to simply continue to add talented players regardless of their position. Cam Smith is a versatile cover that can play man or zone and is very competitive—just the type of player that the Jaguars need to solidify this upward trend as an organization.
Evan Engram set career highs in receptions (73) and yards (766) in his first season with the Jaguars. Both sides want Engram to be back, but will they be able to make it work financially? Based on effective cap space from Over the Cap, the Jaguars are projected to be nearly $23 million over the cap. In terms of being used as a weapon in the passing game, Kincaid is as talented as any tight end in this class.
There's no such thing as giving Trevor Lawrence too many weapons as the Jaguars continue to build after being one of the best stories in the NFL last season. The ever-versatile Mayer is arguably the best tight end in this class and gives Jacksonville both a strong blocker and a dangerous pass catcher. If Evan Engram returns to Jacksonville, the Jags will have an elite one-two punch at the position. But if the Jaguars lose Engram to free agency, Mayer gives them a nice insurance policy.
The Jaguars' pass game took a huge step forward in Trevor Lawrence's second season. The Christian Kirk signing paid off, and Calvin Ridley -- acquired at the deadline -- should be a factor next season once he returns from suspension. But Lawrence probably still needs another pass-catcher, especially because tight end Evan Engram is a free agent and we can't be sure what Ridley will bring after missing more than a year.
Smith-Njigba is a tough evaluation. He caught 15 passes for 347 yards and three TDs in the 2021 season's Rose Bowl, capping off a 1,606-yard campaign. But he had two catches in that game that were longer than his total yardage for the entire 2022 season (43), as a nagging hamstring injury limited him to five catches over three contests. JSN displays soft hands, precise route running and good after-the-catch ability, and he could be a steal for Jacksonville if he falls here.
The Jaguars' defense has had its moments this season, but is still short a few pieces. As a red-shirt sophomore, Ringo's size/speed combination is still developing, but the former five-star recruit will compete to be the first cornerback selected solely based on his talent and potential.
Smith's a tough-minded corner who does not back down from SEC receivers and makes plays on the ball, which is the type of defender the Jaguars need opposite Tyson Campbell.
Whether the 6-foot, 193-pound All-American lines up in the slot, safety, corner or all of the above, the Pack's secondary needs the help. Branch had two INTs, three sacks and 14 TFLs in 2022.
Mayer is more Gronk than Kelce but that's not a bad thing. And in Green Bay he'll get plenty of chances, whether it's with Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love, or the QB behind Door No. 3. WR also makes sense here but, well, the Packers last drafted a WR in the first round 21 years ago.
The Packers and Aaron Rodgers need to go separate ways, which means that it is the Jordan Love show. With that being the case, the front office understands that they need to surround Love with as many weapons as possible. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the perfect pairing with the young, explosive vertical threats that the Packers drafted last year.
Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are coming off productive rookie seasons, and Mayer would give Aaron Rodgers (or Jordan Love) another weapon in the passing game. Mayer has an all-around skill set with the ability to play in-line and was the focal point of Notre Dame's passing offense, leading the team in receiving three years in a row.
Forget about a difference maker at tight end or a safety, both needs that must also be addressed. If Green Bay's offensive line doesn't improve, nothing else matters. Yes, the franchise has done well in later rounds with offensive linemen — and the Packers last drafted an offensive lineman in the first round in 2011 — but picking this early gives the Packers a shot at landing a stud tackle for years to come. Injuries to David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins have made it clear just how irreplaceable elite linemen are. Regardless of who the quarterback is, the Packers can't miss on an opportunity to invest in 2024 and beyond by taking Skoronski, who could also turn out to be a reliable guard.
We project a pass-catcher to the Packers in Round 1 year in and year out, and every time the first round rolls around, they go another direction. In fact, Green Bay hasn't drafted a pass-catcher on Day 1 since it took Javon Walker in 2002. But after missing the playoffs and potentially losing Allen Lazard and Robert Tonyan to free agency, the Packers' hand might be forced in 2023 -- no matter who is under center. Mayer has a huge catch radius and is a bulldozer after the catch, hauling in 67 balls for 809 yards and nine scores last season. He might be the safest prospect in the entire class thanks to an all-around skill set, and he'd be an instant-impact player for Green Bay.
The further we get outside of the top-10, the harder it will be to pass on Mayer. The Irish pipeline at tight end to the NFL continues to flourish. Mayer isn't as explosive as Kyle Pitts, but his receiving acumen, size (6-foot-4, 265 pounds) and toughness put him just a tick below Pitts as a prospect. Both Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis will be free agents.
Smith-Njigba is just as talented as the three former Ohio State receivers -- Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jameson Williams -- picked in the top 12 last year. (Williams, of course, played his final year at Alabama.) He has excellent hands and quickness/strength after the catch. If his troublesome hamstring is fully healed, I expect teams to place a high value on him. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if the Packers moved up to grab JSN, or one of the top tight ends, to aid whoever their quarterback might be in 2023.
Aidan Hutchinson was a home run pick last year, and fellow rookie James Houston IV was very productive in limited playing time. Murphy would give the Lions three outstanding young edge rushers.
The Lions have the perfect situation for Richardson as he enters the league. He can sit behind Jared Goff for at least a year and then provide the rewards that come from building a team around a quarterback playing on his rookie contract.
As satisfied as they seem with QB Jared Goff, this might be the Lions' last best chance to take a young quarterback knowing Goff's contract only runs two more seasons. But barring that, Detroit has to alter what was statistically the league's worst defense in 2022. As disappointing as Jeff Okudah and these corners have generally been, Witherspoon makes perfect sense — and his willingness to tackle and mix it up behind the line of scrimmage while taking on runners seem to be a good fit for a Dan Campbell-coached team.
Another asset for Detroit's defense. The productive All-ACC edge man had 18½ sacks and 36 TFLs in three seasons with the Tigers and would make a nice bookend with DE Aidan Hutchinson.
Porter is the prototypical big, physical cornerback who looks like he belongs in the NFL. He can sometimes get a little too handsy downfield, but he checks many of the boxes of what team's look for when drafting DBs. Is this too early for Porter? Maybe ... then again, there is a premium on big, physical cornerbacks; in recent drafts Sauce Gardner, Derek Stingley Jr., Jaycee Horn and Patrick Surtain II were all taken early in the first round.
Van Ness never started a game at Iowa but that's not the point. The point is that NFL teams love his size, his athleticism, and where his game could be a couple of years from now. Purdue's George Karlaftis went at the end of Round 1 a year ago, and USC's Drake Jackson went a round later; both players were high-upside prospects who exceeded expectations as rookies. Van Ness is in the same conversation but could be the best of the bunch.
The Lions finished the year as one of the hottest teams in the NFL and have clearly placed themselves in the running for the NFC North crown next year. But they need to fix a defense that was one of the worst units in the NFL. They start to fix that by addressing the back end and drafting Oregon CB Christian Gonzalez. Gonzalez may be the best athlete of all the corners in this class and has the ability to play lockdown man-to-man coverage. Gonzalez paired with Jeff Okudah should give the Lions a nice young pair moving forward.
It is clear that Dan Campbell has a very specific culture that he is trying to cultivate and Bryan Breese fits that perfectly. Breese is a tough, hard-nosed player that is also extremely talented. The opportunity to draft Breese is a steal for the Lions and also the perfect fit for Campbell and this staff.
Cornerback is arguably the team's biggest need heading into the offseason, even though the Lions used a top-three pick on Jeff Okudah in 2020. Both Amani Oruwariye and Mike Hughes are scheduled to become free agents next month. The brother-in-law of former Lions quarterback David Blough, Gonzalez has elite speed (23.3 mph on GPS, per Bruce Feldman), smooth change-of-direction ability and excellent length. Gonzalez had four interceptions for the Ducks in '22.
Double-dipping with defensive picks in the first round is a distinct possibility for the Lions. While Detroit ranked top five in both total and scoring offense in 2022, it ranked last in total defense and only the Bears (27.2) and Cardinals (26.4) allowed more points per game than the Lions (25.1), who also ranked 28th in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric for defense. Rookies Aidan Hutchinson (9.5) and James Houston (eight) combined for 17.5 sacks last season, but Bresee has the quickness and power to be a disruptive three-technique for the Lions.
Illinois led the nation in scoring defense, and Witherspoon and the secondary were the key to the Illini's defensive emergence. Witherspoon always was assigned the opponent's best receiver, no matter if it was field, boundary or slot. According to Pro Football Focus, Witherspoon was targeted 63 times and allowed just 22 catches for 206 yards and no scores. Plus, he can bring the thunder. Witherspoon has the potential to become a shutdown corner and the toughness to further restore the roar in Detroit.
The Lions won eight of their final 10 games but were 28th or worse in the most important defensive categories, including last overall in total defense. With a pair of talented rush ends in Aidan Hutchinson and James Houston, Detroit needs a two-down run stuffer in the worst way. Ika has that ability with his 6-4, 360-pound frame to tie up blockers and quick enough footwork to close gaps.
I think Detroit sticks with Jared Goff and uses this pick on a porous defensive unit. I considered a cornerback, but Murphy has a much higher grade than my CB1 -- and the defense needs support at multiple positions. It couldn't stop anyone last season, allowing a league-high 6.2 yards per play. Adding Murphy's speed off the edge to a group that already includes 2022 first-rounder Aidan Hutchinson and surprise rookie standout James Houston immediately moves the defense forward.
Something else to watch for here: I wouldn't be surprised if Detroit slides down the board, picking up additional draft capital from a team looking to nab a quarterback. The Lions already have a second first-rounder, too.
We mentioned that the Lions might be thinking cornerback at No. 6 (ended up with a defensive end in Murphy), but they get one here with their second first-rounder at the tail end of a mini run at the position. Ringo is the fourth CB to come off the board in five picks. There will be a lot of opinions about his game, but Ringo has a lot of upside. He has speed and length, and he's very good in press coverage. Plus, he hauled in two interceptions in each of his seasons at Georgia. Jeff Okudah has flashed the traits that made him the No. 3 pick in 2020, but even if he takes the next step, Amani Oruwariye is a free agent, leaving the other outside corner spot wide open.
It appears Jared Goff may keep his job. This selection would pair nicely with former top-three pick Jeff Okudah and hopefully address a leaky pass defense for the Lions. Gonzalez has the size (6-2, 200) and physical traits that make most scouts salivate, and the Colorado transfer answered all questions regarding his ball production (four interceptions) in his only season in Eugene. His draft stock could lift off with a dynamic performance at the combine.
Bresee was the No. 1 overall recruit in the 2020 recruiting class. He showed flashes of dominance as a true freshman in 2020, but only played 152 snaps in 2021 before tearing his ACL. It appears he regained his explosiveness and remains one of the most versatile defensive lineman in this class, but his injury history has teams divided. Otherwise, I believe the Lions might consider taking him with the sixth pick.
Usually there's a cornerback who takes a big leap (figuratively and literally) at the NFL Scout Combine -- my guess is that's Gonzalez this year. The Oregon defender's size (6-2, 201) and athleticism will likely impress scouts, who, if they haven't devoured it already, will then turn to the tape where they'll see aggressive play and very good ball skills. Gonzalez could help alleviate some of the pressure on the Lions' previous top-10 corner selection, Jeff Okudah.
Mayer might end up as the second tight end off the board because he is not as quick-twitch as Dalton Kincaid and others at his position. The Lions happily select the Notre Dame standout, though, as his reliability as a pass-catcher and tenacious blocking remind me of Ravens star Mark Andrews.
The All-SEC performer can line up just about anywhere, including the slot, and is an effective defender in coverage and coming up to shut down the run. His 6-3 frame would come in handy in a division with TEs like Baltimore's Mark Andrews and Pittsburgh's Pat Freiermuth. A good chunk of Cincy's secondary is unsigned, including starting safeties Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell.
There was some thought that Harrison might return to Oklahoma for an NIL deal that was too good to pass up, but he's instead opted for the NFL. He's one of the top tackles in the class and now the question is whether he finds his way into Round 1 or goes early on Day 2.
It's safe to say that the Bengals have a team that will be AFC contenders for the next decade. But there is clearly another level that they have to reach to consistently knock off the Chiefs. I believe the Bengals make the decision to add more offensive firepower and draft Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs. Drafting Gibbs does not mean moving on from Joe Mixon because Gibbs has such a versatile skill set that he can play on the field with Mixon and be used as a receiver out of the backfield.
There were no first-round tight ends taken last year, but Washington is the third off the board here. (In fact, Oregon State's Luke Musgrave is in the first-round mix, as well.) That said, Washington is unique in that he plays almost like a third offensive tackle given his massive frame (6'7" and 270 pounds) and play strength. Washington is at his best as a run blocker, but he would provide Joe Burrow with a massive target in the red zone and down the seam.
Cincinnati has done well to bolster its defensive front through free agency, but with big pay days on the horizon for the likes of Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase, among others, the Bengals won't have that same luxury in the coming years. I'm tempted to take Oregon State tight end Luke Musgrave, but Burrow proved his team can take a one-year flyer on someone like Hayden Hurst and make it shine. And with the current slate of QBs in the AFC, you can never have enough pass rushers.
I wouldn't count out an offensive lineman here, but think about how a standout tight end could elevate this offense to another level. Joe Burrow threw only 92 passes to tight ends in 2022, sixth fewest in the league, and now Hayden Hurst is off to free agency. Cincinnati could really use a top-tier pass-catcher there to open things up more on the outside for the Bengals' trio of wideouts, provide a security blanket for Burrow over the middle and stretch the seam for chunk plays. With a big 6-foot-4, 240-pound frame, Kincaid is coming off two straight seasons with 500-plus yards and eight TDs.
The Bengals need to learn from the Super Bowl champion Chiefs and put every possible resource into shoring up the offensive line in order to support their elite quarterback. Wright's a four-year starter who has improved every season in Knoxville. Wright only allowed one pressure when he faced off against Alabama's Anderson in a 52-49 Volunteers' victory and was consistently dominant throughout Senior Bowl practices.
Mauch showed during Senior Bowl week that he could play anywhere along the offensive line. That sort of versatility would have come in handy for the Bengals during the playoffs after they lost both starting tackles (including Jonah Williams, a free agent after the 2023 season) to injury. Putting Mauch and his former Bison teammate, Cordell Volson, on the same NFL O-line does NDSU proud.
