Sunday, October 15, 2017

Week 6 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Beazley)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

Sean Beazley's picks against the spread have been money this year as he's currently 11-4 ATS with +28 units. In fact, he's a perfect 6-0 ATS over the past two weeks combined.

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With that said, here are Sean Beazley's Week 6 NFL picks against the spread:

New England Patriots -9.5 over New York Jets (3 Units)

Normally it's tough laying almost 10 points on the road in a division contest, but the Jets are clearly not as good as the Patriots despite having an identical record. The Patriots get Rob Gronkowski back this week which should give them an extra option on offense. I think Tom Brady has a massive game, and the Jets are going to struggle keeping pace in this one. Patriots 38, Jets 22.

Minnesota Vikings +3.5 over Green Bay Packers (3 Units)

No Stefon Diggs this week leaves the Vikings very thin at WR, and puts me in a tough spot in DFS as I currently have two Vikings in cash. Yikes. The Packers defense is beat up so I expect the Vikings to overcome the loss of Diggs. Aaron Rodgers is as clutch as they come and his 4th-quarter comeback vs. Dallas last week was magnificent. I think this is a classic hangover spot vs. a good division rival. Vikings 27, Packers 24.


- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

DraftKings NFL $450K Post Pattern: DraftKings is running a one-week contest with $450,000 in prizes, $50,000 to 1st place and only $8 to enter.

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Week 6 NFL Picks Against the Spread (Trifone)

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

On the season, John Trifone is 10-5 against the spread (+14 units) and 6-2 ATS over the past three weeks.

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With that said, here are John Trifone's Week 6 NFL picks against the spread:

New York Jets +9.5 over New England Patriots (4 Units)

At the beginning of the year, this spread might be thought to be too small. However, five weeks into the year, this spread is clearly way too high. The perception of the Patriots is what inflates the line. In reality, New England has been mediocre and Tom Brady has been getting beat up. The defense is suspect, and the Jets have been far better than expected. In New York, the Jets are certainly the right side here.

Los Angeles Rams +2.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars (3 Units)

The Jags defense is legitimately one of the best in the league. They were spectacular against the Steelers last week. However, five interceptions and two pick-sixes are an anomaly, and I still don’t trust the Jags offense. The Rams offense, on the other hand, looks vastly improved with a better offensive line. The way to get to Jacksonville’s defense is on the ground, and Todd Gurley has been great so far this year. I like the Rams to keep this one close and maybe even win outright. I’ll take the Rams and the points.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 over Kansas City Chiefs (4 Units)

This is really a tale of two good teams that have been going down different paths thus far. The Chiefs and Alex Smith are both playing at a higher level than was anticipated coming into the year, and the Steelers, who were a Super Bowl favorite coming into the year have clearly underachieved. Pittsburgh is coming off an embarrassing loss, and I think they come back and right the ship this week. I expect the Chiefs to be handed their first loss of the year and see a big offensive game from the Steelers offense.


- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

DraftKings NFL $450K Post Pattern: DraftKings is running a one-week contest with $450,000 in prizes, $50,000 to 1st place and only $8 to enter.

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Thursday, October 12, 2017

DFS Round Table: Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 6

Every week of the 2017 NFL season, our contributors will provide their favorite DraftKings play of the week and share their thoughts in our weekly DFS Round Table post.

In some cases, the play is intended for tournaments (i.e., Guaranteed Prize Pools or GPPs); in other cases, it's for cash games (e.g., head-to-heads and 50-50's). Or both.

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Who is your favorite DraftKings play for Week 6?

Kevin Hanson: Lamar Miller, RB, Houston Texans ($5,400)

As nearly double-digit home favorites, positive game script could lead to a huge day for Miller. Either way, Miller has a total of 95 touches -- 83 carries and 12 receptions -- with a minimum of 15 every week this season. Even though the Texans are high on rookie D'Onta Foreman, Miller dominated snaps in Sunday's loss to the Chiefs by a 56-to-nine margin over the rookie.

Based on DraftKings' main slate of games, which includes no primetime games, Miller has the 16th-highest price among running backs, but he is clearly a top-10 option during this slate. There are two games with no lines yet, but Houston has the third-highest implied total based on Vegas odds for the week. With double-digit DraftKings points in four of five games, Miller has a stable floor established as well as the upside for 100-plus yards and a score or two.

DraftKings NFL $450K Post Pattern: $450,000 in total prizes, $50,000 to 1st and only $8 to enter.

John Trifone: Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers ($5,700)

There are a few plays I really like this week, but one of my favorite tournament options is Big Ben going into Kansas City this week. His price has been depressed to $5,700, and he’s coming off a five-interception game at home. Roethlisberger has also historically been much worse on the road than he has been at home - in fact his splits are probably the best known of any player in the industry.

Unless you think he’s just done (I don’t), this is a great spot to get Ben at extremely low ownership. The Steelers offense has drastically underperformed this year, but all of the talent is there. They’ll be looking to bounce back this week and they get the 27th passing defense in the league in Kansas City this week. I think the upside here is too high and his very low ownership makes him and a Steelers offense as a whole an ideal tourney play.

Brendan Donahue: Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs ($8,200)

I don't typically like to pick the highest-salaried players, but at $8200, I think his is more than fair and really don't understand why he is $1,200 less than Le'veon Bell. Hunt is my top-ranked RB this week as he goes up against the Steelers, who have given up the second-most points to opposing RBs.

Hunt has either run for at least 100 yards or scored 2 TDs in each game so far this year. Based on his 29 carries last week, his workload isn't getting any smaller. In fact, if anything, Andy Reid is leaning on him even more. Hunt to me is not only the safest play this week but also has the highest ceiling as well so I would be putting him in both cash and tourney formats.

Sean Beazley: Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders ($5,000)

DraftKings tempted us last week with a juicy $6,000 price tag for Melvin Gordon. Gordon, alongside my pick last week Dez Bryant, were my highest-owned players which led me to a pretty nice week. I am jumping back in with another player that DraftKings has tempted us with at a great price and that’s Oakland WR Amari Cooper. Cooper comes in at a bargain of only $5000 and has a great matchup vs. the Chargers this week.

Cooper has been straight trash this season. Joe Dolan had a great tweet with a list of players that have had more receiving yards in ONE game than Amari Cooper has had all season. The list includes some pretty big names like Ed Dickson, Austin Hooper and Geronimo Allison.

Derek Carr is expected back this week which should help this offense tremendously. My only concern here is if the Chargers decide to use Casey Hayward to shadow Cooper. Hayward was used in this role last season vs. the Raiders, but shadowing is generally used to stop your opponent's top receiving option, and this year it's Michael Crabtree. If word gets out that Hayward will be on Crabtree, I think Cooper is even safe for cash. Even if Hayward matches up with Cooper, at $5K, you really don't need much to pay off this price tag.

Dan Yanotchko: Chris Thompson, RB, Washington Redskins ($5,000)

This week I really like Chris Thompson of Washington coming off the bye going against San Francisco. Thompson had a down game vs. Kansas City, but he still has 14 receptions on 21 targets, and he has had 14 carries in his last two games. San Francisco allows 116 yards per game, and if you watched Marlon Mack gash them for 91 yards on 9 carries, you know they have trouble on the edge with speed runners. Great price point for a bounce-back week.

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Sunday, October 8, 2017

Week 5 NFL Picks Against the Spread

Every week, four of our contributors pick between two and five games each and assign a number of units (one to five) to their selection based on their confidence in the pick.

I'm traveling at the moment, so I'm posted all of our weekly picks -- except those by John Trifone, who posted his picks early in the week -- in this combined post.

Here are Week 5 picks against the spread from Dan Yanotchko:

Cleveland Browns pick'em over New York Jets (3 Units)

In a wacky season of lines and performances, the Jets happen to be 2-2 yet they are still road dogs to the Browns. It looks like the Browns top overall pick Myles Garett will make his debut, which will help the Browns pass rush. Cleveland will also be able to exploit a weak Jets rush defense that allows 143 yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry. I like the Browns to get their first "W" of the year

Arizona Cardinals +6.5 over Philadelphia Eagles (3 Units)

The Eagles have had a great start to the year, and they will look to keep the momentum going at home. The Philadelphia defense has been shredded against the pass this year, as they allow 285 yards per game, a 66% completion percentage, and seven touchdowns to boot. While the Eagles should win, their defense will allow Arizona to be close.

Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 over New York Giants (3 Units)

The Giants and Chargers have both had horrendous starts to the year, and one of these teams will get their first win. Even though the Chargers have a bad rushing defense, the Giants have shown no aptitude to run the ball at all this year and will not be able to take advantage. The Chargers will be able to exploit a Giants defense that allows 142 yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry, and will look to get Melvin Gordon going. I think the Chargers are the better team, and I'll take the points.
Here are Sean Beazley's Week 5 NFL picks against the spread:

Green Bay Packers +3 over Dallas Cowboys (4 Units)

I'll take Aaron Rodgers as an underdog almost every time. I believe Rodgers has a huge game in what should be the best game of the weekend. If you're playing DFS and don't have exposure to this game in every lineup, it may be best to try something different. Packers, 31-27.

Miami Dolphins +1 over Tennessee Titans (3 Units)

I'm making this pick before we see the status of Titans QB Marcus Mariota. A Mariota-led team is obviously a better team than one led by Matt Cassel. Cassel looked horrendous last week and I think Miami will be fired up after getting embarrassed in London last week. I think Miami will try to slow down the pace of this game, and win their first game at home. Miami, 23-17.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 over Buffalo Bills (4 Units)

Prime let-down spot here for the Bills after a big win in Atlanta last week. The Bills defense looked great last week but the Falcons did play without their top two WRs for most of the game. I love the combo of Dalton/Green this week. Bengals, 27-21
With that said, here are my Week 5 NFL picks against the spread:

New York Giants -3.5 over Los Angeles Chargers (2 units)

In a battle of disappointing 0-4 teams, the good news is one of the two teams has to win. Homefield advantage in L.A. hasn't helped the Chargers, but it can be tough for west coast teams to play 1 p.m. start on the east coast. I think the Giants get their first win of the season.

Baltimore Ravens +3 over Oakland Raiders (1 unit)

Assuming that E.J. Manuel gets the start despite any attempts from Derek Carr to play, I much rather take the points and the Ravens. Both teams won their first two while losing their past two, but I have much more confidence in Joe Flacco than Manuel.

- Note: All of our NFL picks against the spread will be centralized here.

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Wednesday, October 4, 2017

Fantasy Football Start'em, Sit'em: Week 5 Fantasy Tight Ends

Ultimately, the decision of which player to start is largely determined by the composition of your roster (as well as your league's settings).

As an example, Cameron Brate is listed below as a "start" for Week 5. And I'd feel comfortable going into Week 5 with him as my starting tight end.

That said, he may be a sit for your team.

In other words, if you owned both Travis Kelce and Brate, you should start Kelce -- and in turn, bench Brate.

So, while you won't find absolute start-sit recommendations below (use my Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings for that instead), the goal here is to highlight some players that I like (and would feel comfortable starting) as well as some players that I dislike for this week (and would prefer to keep on my bench).

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Week 5 Fantasy Football TE Start'em

 

TE - Charles Clay, Buffalo Bills (at CIN)

With one-fourth of the season complete, Clay has scored the fourth-most fantasy points at the position behind only Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz. Even if the Bills are a run-dominant team, the tight end has a position-high 25.51-percent team target share. Given the injury to Jordan Matthews, the team's most productive wide receiver, Clay's target share has only become more secure.

The matchup against the Bengals isn't great and only the Jaguars are projected to score fewer points this week based on implied totals from Vegas odds. Given his volume, role and production within the passing offense, however, Clay is a top-five play this week once again.

Related: Our Favorite Week 5 DraftKings Plays

TE - Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers (at NYG)

Most (including me) expected Henry to take a step forward in his second season. In terms of fantasy production, at least, it's been a disappointment for his fantasy owners. In fact, Henry has gone untargeted in two of the team's four games even though he caught a touchdown in Week 4.

Based on the strength of New York's pass defense, it makes sense for opponents to funnel pass attempts to tight ends over the middle of the field. Let's hope that Henry is utilized in a way that allows him to exploit the matchup. The Giants have allowed the most fantasy points to the position this season. In addition, the Giants have allowed four top-five weekly TE performances and another TE9 performance in just four games.

TE - Cameron Brate, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. NE)

Even if O.J. Howard has out-snapped Brate by a margin of 122 to 99 this season, Brate has run a pass route on 25 more snaps than Howard over the team's three games. Scoring a touchdown in each of his past two games, Brate has a total of 10 catches on 13 targets for 137 yards. In another plus matchup -- the Patriots have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the position, Brate has the potential to provide fantasy owners with another useful outing.

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Week 5 Fantasy Football TE Sit'em

 

TE - Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts (vs. SF)

Through four games, the 49ers have allowed just 10 catches for 77 yards and the fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends -- less than two fantasy points per game. Doyle has five-plus targets in each of the past three games, but he has a total of only 43 yards in the past two weeks. Given some of the positive matchups of others at the position, Doyle is outside my top-12 fantasy tight ends for the week.

TE - Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions (vs. CAR)

Outside of his matchup againt the Giants in Week 2 (5/42/1), Ebron has had very disappointing outings -- two catches in each of the three other games with nine yards, nine yards and 27 yards, respectively. The matchup this week against the Panthers is not favorable. Only three teams have allowed fewer fantasy points to the position this season.

TE - Tyler Kroft, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. BUF)

With six catches for 68 yards and two touchdowns on a 23.3-percent target share last week, Kroft was fantasy's top-scoring tight end in Week 4. Even if his volume of targets was encouraging, Kroft won't be ranked inside my top-12 fantasy tight ends even if Tyler Eifert misses another game. The Bills have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season.

- More Fantasy Football Start'em, Sit'em for Week 5

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Fantasy Football Start'em, Sit'em: Week 5 Fantasy Wide Receivers

Ultimately, the decision of which player to start is largely determined by the composition of your roster (as well as your league's settings).

As an example, Chris Hogan is listed below as a "start" for Week 5. And I'd feel comfortable going into Week 5 with him as one of my starting wide receivers.

That said, he may be a sit for your team.

In other words, if you owned both Dez Bryant, Keenan Allen and Hogan and start two receivers, you should start Dez and Allen -- and in turn, bench Hogan.

So, while you won't find absolute start-sit recommendations below (use my Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings for that instead), the goal here is to highlight some players that I like (and would feel comfortable starting) as well as some players that I dislike for this week (and would prefer to keep on my bench).

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Week 5 Fantasy Football WR Start'em

 

WR - DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins (vs. TEN)

Even if you expected more from Parker and the Dolphins offense, he has put up solid, if not spectacular, lines in each of his games. Finishing in the WR21-34 range every week, Parker has a minimum of eight targets and 69 yards in Miami's three games. There are only two other players that have reached those same minimums over the past three weeks -- DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Thomas. It's possible that the Dolphins get their passing offense going this week against the Titans. Only the Bucs have allowed more fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season.

Related: Our Favorite Week 5 DraftKings Plays

WR - Chris Hogan, New England Patriots (at TB)

As noted above, Hogan and the Patriots receivers have a great matchup this week and no team has a higher implied total than the Patriots in Week 5. Targeted on only 17.11 percent of Tom Brady's targets, which is the team WR high, Hogan has been efficient on those targets and has finished as a top-12 fantasy receiver in three consecutive weeks. With 15 catches for 214 yards and four touchdowns, Hogan has scored the third-most fantasy points this season behind Stefon Diggs and Jordy Nelson.

WR - Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals (at PHI)

If it weren't for a touchdown in overtime, it would have been a terribly disappointing performance for Fitzgerald, who finished with four catches for 32 yards and a touchdown last week. Through one-quarter of the season, however, Fitzgerald now has 41 targets for the team that leads the NFL in pass attempts (183) by a wide margin (Giants second with 166).

A favorable matchup against the Eagles, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, for the pass-happy Cardinals could lead to double-digit targets and a big game for Fitzgerald this week. In their past two games alone, the Eagles have allowed four top-seven weekly fantasy wide receivers and three 100-yard games.

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Week 5 Fantasy Football WR Sit'em

 

WR - Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. JAX)

Especially at home, Bryant is always worth throwing into your DFS tournament lineups. As a bit of a boom-or-bust player, his one "boom" game occurred at home (3/91/1). In his three road games, he has finished as the weekly WR77, WR70 and WR48, respectively.

Despite a return to Pittsburgh, I'm not ready to throw him into my weekly lineup in season-long leagues this week. The Jaguars cornerback duo of Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye are as good as it gets, which I think limits Bryant's upside.

WR - Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders (vs. BAL)

Drops excluded (and even though it could have been better), Week 1 was pretty good for Cooper. Since then, however, it's been outright bad. In his past three games, Cooper has a total of seven catches for 48 yards and no touchdowns on 18 targets. In fact, he has single-digit yards and less than one fantasy point in back-to-back games.

Even if Cooper doesn't have to face the No Fly Zone this week, it's another unfavorable matchup against the Ravens, who have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers. The real reason Cooper is on this side of the list, however, is Derek Carr and the fact that his back injury means that E.J. Manuel will get the start.

WR - Sammy Watkins, Los Angeles Rams (vs. SEA)

Only a couple of weeks ago, Watkins went off for 6/106/2 on seven targets against the 49ers in Week 3. In the games around that stellar performance, however, Watkins had just two targets in each of those games. At this point, there really is no way to know how many targets Watkins will see in a negative matchup. Watkins has now finished as the WR40 (or worse) in three of four games. Outside of my top-24 receivers for the week, Watkins is more of a WR3 for me this week.

- More Fantasy Football Start'em, Sit'em for Week 5

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Fantasy Football Start'em, Sit'em: Week 5 Fantasy Running Backs

Ultimately, the decision of which player to start is largely determined by the composition of your roster (as well as your league's settings).

As an example, Duke Johnson is listed below as a "start" for Week 5. And I'd feel comfortable going into Week 5 with him as one of my starting running backs.

That said, he may be a sit for your team.

In other words, if you owned Le'Veon Bell, Todd Gurley and Johnson and only start two running backs, you should start Bell and Gurley -- and in turn, bench Johnson.

So, while you won't find absolute start-sit recommendations below (use my Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings for that instead), the goal here is to highlight some players that I like (and would feel comfortable starting) as well as some players that I dislike for this week (and would prefer to keep on my bench).

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Week 5 Fantasy Football RB Start'em

 

RB - Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers (at IND)

To think, there was a little bit of uncertainty about Hyde's role this offseason. There's no uncertainty now. As long as he's healthy (and that's always a question with Hyde), he's going to get a large workload as the focal point of San Francisco's offense.

Going into Week 5, Hyde has a total of 65 carries for 321 yards (a career-high 4.94 YPC) and two touchdowns plus 17 catches for 88 yards on 22 targets. Hyde was a top-10 fantasy running back in two weeks, and exactly the RB27 twice. In the weeks he finished as the RB27, he faced the Panthers and Cardinals, both of whom rank inside the five most-stingy defenses to fantasy running backs.

In a more favorable matchup this week against the Colts, who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, I'd expect Hyde to exploit the matchup. Hyde is a top-five play this week.

Related: Our Favorite Week 5 DraftKings Plays

RB - Bilal Powell, New York Jets (at CLE)

Depending on the status of Matt Forte (toe), Powell could be in store for another significant workload. In last week's "upset" over the Jaguars, Powell carried the ball 21 times for 163 yards and a touchdown and added four catches for 27 yards to finish with the fifth-most fantasy points last week.

That kind of production shouldn't be expected again, but Powell now has 15-plus carries, a touchdown and a top-24 weekly performance in back-to-back weeks. In a game that should be close (Cleveland is a small home favorite), Powell should get another large workload with the opportunity to deliver for fantasy owners for a third straight week.

RB - Duke Johnson, Cleveland Browns (vs. NYJ)

Perhaps this is the week that Isaiah Crowell gets going, but either way, I like Johnson in this spot. Even though he has just 10 carries this season, Johnson has a total of 20 catches for 207 yards on 28 targets. That puts him on a 16-game pace of 80/828 with 112 targets. Even if he doesn't maintain that pace, he'll clearly be involved in the passing game given the injuries and lack of talent amongst the team's other pass-catchers. The Jets have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.

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Week 5 Fantasy Football RB Sit'em

 

RB - Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers (at DET)

A one-dimensional player (only three catches on six targets in four games), Stewart is a TD-dependent fantasy play every week. Inefficient on a per-carry basis (3.90 YPC), Stewart has 12 to 18 carries every week this season, but he's yet to reach the 70-yard rushing mark or rush for a touchdown. (He did catch a touchdown in Week 1, however.) In the first week of byes, Stewart isn't the worst play, but he's more of an uninspiring flex option than an RB2 for Week 5.

RB - Latavius Murray, Minnesota Vikings (at CHI)

With Dalvin Cook (ACL) lost for the season, the Vikings will turn to Murray to take over the lead-back role. Even with Murray getting his largest amount of carries in Week 4 after the injury, Cook has dominated touches -- 85 to 36 for the rest of the running backs combined -- this season. The Bears front-seven is better than their secondary so I don't expect a ton of improvement in efficiency for Murray, who has averaged 2.71 YPC and 4.0 Y/R.

RB - Eddie Lacy and Thomas Rawls, Seattle Seahawks (at LAR)

The matchup is so, so good. The Rams have allowed opposing backs to rush for 560 yards, 4.96 YPC and six touchdowns this season. They've allowed a top-six weekly fantasy running backs in three consecutive games. Even though Chris Carson has been placed on IR, how can we trust that Lacy or Rawls will be the (primary) one to exploit the matchup? We can't. Rawls was a healthy scratch last week, but it wouldn't surprise me if he's the one that (re-)emerges as the lead back, but I'd prefer to take a wait-and-see approach despite how tempting the matchup may be.

- More Fantasy Football Start'em, Sit'em for Week 5

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Fantasy Football Start'em, Sit'em: Week 5 Fantasy Quarterbacks

Ultimately, the decision of which player to start is largely determined by the composition of your roster (as well as your league's settings).

As an example, Deshaun Watson is listed below as a "start" for Week 5. And I'd feel comfortable going into Week 5 with him as my starting quarterback.

That said, he may be a sit for your team.

In other words, if you owned both Aaron Rodgers and Watson, you should start Rodgers -- and in turn, bench Watson.

So, while you won't find absolute start-sit recommendations below (use my Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings for that instead), the goal here is to highlight some players that I like (and would feel comfortable starting) as well as some players that I dislike for this week (and would prefer to keep on my bench).

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Week 5 Fantasy Football QB Start'em

 

QB - Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. NE)

Nearly flawless in his past three games (377.3 YPG, 10 TDs and no INTs), no quarterback has scored more fantasy points this season than Tom Brady. As great as Brady has been, the (collective) quarterback(s) on the other side of the field have been even better.

In other words, the Patriots have allowed four consecutive 300-yard passers with multiple scores to start the season. In all of last season, they allowed a total of three such quarterbacks. No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks than the Patriots. The four quarterbacks they have faced have averaged 26.61 fantasy points per game compared to Brady (24.42/G).

While he threw three interceptions in Week 3 against the Vikings, Winston himself has thrown for more than 300 yards and multiple touchdowns in each of his past two games as well for a total of 660 yards and five touchdowns.

Even though Winston and the Bucs are 5.5-point home underdogs, this game has the week's highest total (56.0) and the Bucs still have one of the six highest implied totals based on Vegas odds this week.

Related: Our Favorite Week 5 DraftKings Plays

QB - Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans (vs. KC)

The rookie is sure to have ups and downs this season, but it's been only "ups" so far in terms of his fantasy success. Taking over as the starter in Week 2, Watson has scored the seventh-most fantasy points this season and erupted for five touchdowns 33.72 fantasy points in Week 4.

Headlining Week 5's waiver-wire column, Watson was only owned in a third of fantasy leagues before waivers ran. With some top quarterbacks -- Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins -- on bye, Derek Carr (back) out and Marcus Mariota's status in doubt, Watson is definitely a viable start again this week even if the matchup is more difficult.

Even when he's inefficient as a passer (e.g., 125 yards and no TDs in Week 2), his rushing ability (e.g., 5/67/1 in Week 2) can bail him out.

QB - Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (vs. GB)

With three touchdowns in back-to-back games, Prescott has scored 22-plus fantasy points in both of those games. Even with difficult matchups to start the season (Giants, Broncos and Cardinals in the first three weeks), Prescott has finished as a top-12 weekly quarterback in all four games this season.

Green Bay's pass defense has played well to start the season as they have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, but there should be plenty of offense in this game. The Cowboys have the second-highest implied total this week, which should lead to strong fantasy production from Prescott this week.

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Week 5 Fantasy Football QB Sit'em

 

QB - Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers (at NYG)

Even though Rivers has finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in three of four games, he has yet to finish with 20-plus fantasy points in any of those games. After three consecutive home games, Rivers and the Chargers take their show on the road to face the Giants. The Giants have surrendered seven passing touchdowns in four games with no interceptions, but they have allowed just 224.5 passing yards per game over that stretch. At the moment, I currently have Rivers at No. 13 in my fantasy QB rankings so he's just outside that QB1 range.

QB - Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. BUF)

In the first two games of the season, Dalton threw four interceptions and lost a fumble as the Bengals failed to score a touchdown. In the next two games, Dalton threw six touchdowns with no interceptions although he lost a fumble. While Dalton has looked much better in softer matchups recently, expectations should be tempered as the Bills have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Limiting opposing passers to single-digit fantasy points in three of four games, the Bills have allowed only one passing touchdown and have six interceptions over that span.

QB - Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills (at CIN)

Right now, two games don't have a line due to the uncertain status of Mariota and Minnesota's Sam Bradford, but Taylor and the Bills have the second-lowest implied total (18.0) this week. With less than 225 passing yards in all four games, Taylor's rushing ability is a huge part of his fantasy success, but he has had just 25 rushing yards in the past two games combined. The Bengals have limited opposing quarterbacks to the eighth-fewest fantasy points and it could be a very modest performance for Taylor if he's unable to generate more rushing output in Week 5.

- More Fantasy Football Start'em, Sit'em for Week 5

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DFS Round Table: Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 5

Every week of the 2017 NFL season, our contributors will provide their favorite DraftKings play of the week and share their thoughts in our weekly DFS Round Table post.

In some cases, the play is intended for tournaments (i.e., Guaranteed Prize Pools or GPPs); in other cases, it's for cash games (e.g., head-to-heads and 50-50's). Or both.

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Who is your favorite DraftKings play for Week 5?

John Trifone: Melvin Gordon, RB, Los Angeles Chargers ($6,000)

I had to do a double take when I saw Melvin Gordon’s price for Week 5. He hasn’t been as efficient as last year four weeks into the season, but he’s one of a handful of three-down backs left in the league. He gets the Giants, who have been bad against the run, and he should also be involved in the passing game. The Chargers do have a lot of weapons, but Gordon should still get his touches. I’ll take advantage of a deflated price coming off a bad week, but his upside is just way too high to be priced like a mid-range RB.

Editor's note: Sign up at DraftKings and receive a 25% initial deposit bonus.

Sean Beazley: Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys ($6,500)

My initial pick this week was going to be Miami WR Jarvis Landry at a bargain $5,800. I will probably load him into my lineup this week, but the pick comes down to the health of Titans QB Marcus Mariota. If Mariota goes, Landry will probably be my highest-owned player this week. If Mariota is out, I will probably only have half as much exposure. I can’t see the Titans scoring much with Matt Cassel at QB, which could limit Landry’s value.

The play that is popping out to me besides Landry is Dez Bryant. Dez has a great individual matchup vs. Green Bay, plus the game flow should warrant some extra targets his way. At $6,500, Dez is an absolute lock for me. I think Dez has a 30-point plus week.

Kevin Hanson: Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,000)

Normally, I don't list Thursday night options, but I have to go with Winston here this week. As well as Tom Brady has played (currently fantasy's QB1), his opponents have collectively played better. In other words, the four quarterbacks that have faced the Patriots this season have, on average, outscored Brady.

Not only have the Patriots given up the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, but their opposing passers all have thrown for 300-plus yards and multiple touchdowns. New England has already allowed more such games in 2017 than they did in all of 2016. As the QB3 in my Week 5 rankings, Winston offers plenty of value as the QB13 in terms of DraftKings pricing.

Brendan Donahue: Wayne Gallman, RB, New York Giants ($3,900)

Gallman finally got his opportunity thanks to an injury to Paul Perkins and the rookie out of Clemson took full advantage. He looked infinitely better than Perkins has so far this year and seemed to provide a spark to the Giants offense in the 2nd half, so even if Perkins is healthy (which it doesn't sound like he will be this week), I fully expect Gallman to continue to get the carries. He also caught both of his targets, including one for a touchdown. At just $3,900, he's a nice tournament play with a high ceiling that will allow you to surround him with some safer/bigger salary players.

Dan Yanotchko: Melvin Gordon, RB, Los Angeles Chargers ($6,000)

This week I really like Melvin Gordon of the Chargers, and his dropping price against the Giants. Although Gordon has had a slow start to the year, I really like his matchup this week. Gordon gets a Giants defensive that gives up an average of 142 yards rushing per game and 4.6 yards per carry. This will be the week he breaks 100 as the Chargers will look to control the game pace.

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Tuesday, October 3, 2017

2017 Fantasy Football TE Strength of Schedule (SOS): Weeks 5 to 16

When it comes to picking up or trading for players, one factor to consider is the player's fantasy football strength of schedule.

A player's fantasy strength of schedule is far from the most important aspect of his outlook. But if you're debating a pair of players and they are otherwise comparable in your view, a more favorable fantasy schedule could at least break the tie.

[Related: Our Week 5 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Post.]

Based on the fantasy points each team has surrendered up to this point, we average what each team's remaining opponents have given up to each position. The higher the number, the more favorable their collective remaining matchups are.

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With that said, here are the TE Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule for the remainder of the year:

RankTeamPlayerCumulative PointsFantasy Playoffs
1Los Angeles ChargersHunter Henry9.1324.18
2Oakland RaidersJared Cook8.4521.73
3Denver BroncosVirgil Green8.4226.23
4San Francisco 49ersGeorge Kittle8.3123.12
5Cincinnati BengalsTyler Eifert7.8721.61
6Arizona CardinalsJermaine Gresham7.8634.16
7Dallas CowboysJason Witten7.8429.61
8Green Bay PackersMartellus Bennett7.7024.83
9Miami DolphinsJulius Thomas7.6422.88
10Seattle SeahawksJimmy Graham7.5922.07
11Kansas City ChiefsTravis Kelce7.5321.13
12Baltimore RavensBenjamin Watson7.5128.33
13Los Angeles RamsGerald Everett7.4921.93
14Houston TexansRyan Griffin7.4517.65
15Buffalo BillsCharles Clay7.4327.73
16New York JetsAustin Seferian-Jenkins7.4021.88
17Tennessee TitansDelanie Walker7.2612.28
18Philadelphia EaglesZach Ertz7.2128.33
19Pittsburgh SteelersJesse James7.1429.91
20Detroit LionsEric Ebron7.0917.20
20Washington RedskinsJordan Reed7.0917.93
22Indianapolis ColtsJack Doyle7.0325.64
23Minnesota VikingsKyle Rudolph6.9510.40
24New York GiantsEvan Engram6.8718.38
25Atlanta FalconsAustin Hooper6.8621.17
26Chicago BearsZach Miller6.6422.50
26Cleveland BrownsDavid Njoku6.6421.76
28Jacksonville JaguarsMarcedes Lewis6.5615.34
29New England PatriotsRob Gronkowski6.4818.89
29Carolina PanthersEd Dickson6.4816.95
31New Orleans SaintsCoby Fleener6.1518.10
32Tampa Bay BuccaneersCameron Brate5.7616.45


* Note: Totals above are the average fantasy football points allowed based on their remaining opponents.

Full Strength of Schedules:
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2017 Fantasy Football WR Strength of Schedule (SOS): Weeks 5 to 16

When it comes to picking up or trading for players, one factor to consider is the player's fantasy football strength of schedule.

A player's fantasy strength of schedule is far from the most important aspect of his outlook. But if you're debating a pair of players and they are otherwise comparable in your view, a more favorable fantasy schedule could at least break the tie.

[Related: Our Week 5 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Post.]

Based on the fantasy points each team has surrendered up to this point, we average what each team's remaining opponents have given up to each position. The higher the number, the more favorable their collective remaining matchups are.

Embed from Getty Images

With that said, here are the WR Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule for the remainder of the year:

RankTeamPlayerCumulative PointsFantasy Playoffs
1Atlanta FalconsJulio Jones23.5774.13
2Carolina PanthersKelvin Benjamin23.2873.11
3Buffalo BillsZay Jones23.0072.26
4Miami DolphinsDeVante Parker22.0366.18
5Washington RedskinsTerrelle Pryor22.0266.83
6New York JetsJermaine Kearse21.6964.33
7Oakland RaidersAmari Cooper21.3273.93
8Green Bay PackersJordy Nelson21.1363.46
9Los Angeles RamsSammy Watkins20.9073.41
10New York GiantsOdell Beckham20.8874.53
11Denver BroncosDemaryius Thomas20.8058.28
12Baltimore RavensJeremy Maclin20.6553.76
13Chicago BearsKendall Wright20.5755.48
13San Francisco 49ersPierre Garcon20.5759.64
15Detroit LionsGolden Tate20.4571.38
16Tampa Bay BuccaneersMike Evans20.3856.85
16Arizona CardinalsLarry Fitzgerald20.3857.54
18Cleveland BrownsKenny Britt20.1657.23
19Pittsburgh SteelersAntonio Brown20.1361.99
20Jacksonville JaguarsAllen Hurns20.1060.78
21Philadelphia EaglesAlshon Jeffery19.9454.13
22Tennessee TitansRishard Matthews19.8867.58
23Houston TexansDeAndre Hopkins19.6745.31
24New Orleans SaintsMichael Thomas19.5855.50
25New England PatriotsBrandin Cooks19.3848.01
26Seattle SeahawksDoug Baldwin19.2452.16
27Cincinnati BengalsA.J. Green18.8867.43
28Dallas CowboysDez Bryant18.7448.48
29Los Angeles ChargersKeenan Allen18.6158.13
30Kansas City ChiefsTyreek Hill18.5360.18
31Indianapolis ColtsT.Y. Hilton18.4150.81
32Minnesota VikingsStefon Diggs18.1956.05


* Note: Totals above are the average fantasy football points allowed based on their remaining opponents.

Full Strength of Schedules:
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