Wednesday, September 6, 2023

New England Patriots 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

Our Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2023 fantasy football projections for the New England Patriots.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams


Mac Jones522.1343.33680.818.813.0548.5116.40.61211.63
Matt Corral36.322.5250.51.20.9815.455.40.3520.5

Mac Jones: Jones missed some time in 2022, so his counting stats were down, but so were his efficiency numbers — 65.2% completion rate (67.6% in 2021), 3.2 TD% (4.2%), 6.8 Y/A (7.3) and 84.8 passer rating (92.5). Things should be better (than last year) with Bill O'Brien taking over the offense, but Jones' upside is relatively limited. Jones isn't draftable outside of two-QB or super flex leagues.


Rhamondre Stevenson203.8927.35.546.6334.21.5191.45
Ezekiel Elliott163.1660.65.3823.4192.60.8134.1

Rhamondre Stevenson: Stevenson is coming off a breakout season (1,040 rushing yards, 69 receptions for 421 yards and six total touchdowns). Damien Harris (106 carries in 11 games) is now in Buffalo, but the Patriots signed Ezekiel Elliott to fill his void (and potentially more). Stevenson had multiple receptions in all but one game in 2022, and only three running backs — Austin Ekeler (107), Christian McCaffrey (85) and Leonard Fournette (73) — had more receptions than Stevenson last year. The biggest concern with the Elliott signing, however, is the potential to lose goal-line carries to the former Cowboy.

Ezekiel Elliott: By signing with the Patriots, Elliott boosted the fantasy stock (or at least diminished a potential concern) for Tony Pollard. Elliott set career lows in his age-27 season (2022) with 231 carries and 876 rushing yards, and he should set new career lows in 2023. That said, the Patriots have only two running backs on their active 53-man roster heading into 2023, which means that Elliott is likely to outperform his ADP.


JuJu Smith-Schuster74.1815.74.2000143.82
DeVante Parker51.8640.83000107.98
Kendrick Bourne32.4353.81.86.642.90.2368.05
Demario Douglas212281.200040.5
Tyquan Thornton17.4255.51.33.318.20.1744.89
Kayshon Boutte668.80.400012.28

JuJu Smith-Schuster: Smith-Schuster had 78 catches for 933 yards and three touchdowns in his lone season with the Chiefs. It's fair to say the transition from Patrick Mahomes to Mac Jones is a significant downgrade. After all, the Chiefs averaged nearly 90 more passing yards per game (89.8) and more than doubled up the Patriots in passing touchdowns (41 to 19). That said, he's atop New England's target pecking order and could come close to repeating last year's numbers, despite the relatively low weekly upside.

DeVante Parker: Parker averaged 11.5 yards per target and finished with a 66% catch rate, both of which were career highs, but his final numbers (31/539/3) amounted to another year of fantasy mediocrity. The Patriots gave Parker a new "pay-as-he-produces" (incentive-laden) three-year contract, but his fantasy outlook remains about as boring as the team's general offensive outlook.


Hunter Henry43477.72.800086.07
Mike Gesicki41.9481.62.700085.31
Pharaoh Brown8.282.60.400014.76

Hunter Henry: Henry finished last season with 41 catches for 509 yards and two touchdowns, the lowest numbers of his career when you exclude 2016 (his rookie campaign) and 2018 (missed entire season). The Patriots are expected to significantly increase their usage of 12 personnel (one running back and two tight ends) in 2023 after ranking only 25th in that grouping in 2022.

Mike Gesicki: Like Henry, Gesicki is coming off non-rookie lows in receptions (32), targets (52) and yards (362). The uber-athletic tight end will get an opportunity to reset in an offense that should be more likely to fully utilize his skill set.

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