The Daily Blitz: Mac Jones

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Wednesday, September 6, 2023

New England Patriots 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

Our Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2023 fantasy football projections for the New England Patriots.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

Player	Att.	Comp.	Yards	TD	INT	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Mac Jones	522.1	343.3	3680.8	18.8	13.05	48.5	116.4	0.61	211.63
Matt Corral	36.3	22.5	250.5	1.2	0.98	15.4	55.4	0.35	20.5

Mac Jones: Jones missed some time in 2022, so his counting stats were down, but so were his efficiency numbers — 65.2% completion rate (67.6% in 2021), 3.2 TD% (4.2%), 6.8 Y/A (7.3) and 84.8 passer rating (92.5). Things should be better (than last year) with Bill O'Brien taking over the offense, but Jones' upside is relatively limited. Jones isn't draftable outside of two-QB or super flex leagues.

RUNNING BACKS

Player	Att.	Yards	TD	Rec.	Yards	TD	Points
Rhamondre Stevenson	203.8	927.3	5.5	46.6	334.2	1.5	191.45
Ezekiel Elliott	163.1	660.6	5.38	23.4	192.6	0.8	134.1

Rhamondre Stevenson: Stevenson is coming off a breakout season (1,040 rushing yards, 69 receptions for 421 yards and six total touchdowns). Damien Harris (106 carries in 11 games) is now in Buffalo, but the Patriots signed Ezekiel Elliott to fill his void (and potentially more). Stevenson had multiple receptions in all but one game in 2022, and only three running backs — Austin Ekeler (107), Christian McCaffrey (85) and Leonard Fournette (73) — had more receptions than Stevenson last year. The biggest concern with the Elliott signing, however, is the potential to lose goal-line carries to the former Cowboy.

Ezekiel Elliott: By signing with the Patriots, Elliott boosted the fantasy stock (or at least diminished a potential concern) for Tony Pollard. Elliott set career lows in his age-27 season (2022) with 231 carries and 876 rushing yards, and he should set new career lows in 2023. That said, the Patriots have only two running backs on their active 53-man roster heading into 2023, which means that Elliott is likely to outperform his ADP.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Player	Rec.	Yards	TD	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
JuJu Smith-Schuster	74.1	815.7	4.2	0	0	0	143.82
DeVante Parker	51.8	640.8	3	0	0	0	107.98
Kendrick Bourne	32.4	353.8	1.8	6.6	42.9	0.23	68.05
Demario Douglas	21	228	1.2	0	0	0	40.5
Tyquan Thornton	17.4	255.5	1.3	3.3	18.2	0.17	44.89
Kayshon Boutte	6	68.8	0.4	0	0	0	12.28

JuJu Smith-Schuster: Smith-Schuster had 78 catches for 933 yards and three touchdowns in his lone season with the Chiefs. It's fair to say the transition from Patrick Mahomes to Mac Jones is a significant downgrade. After all, the Chiefs averaged nearly 90 more passing yards per game (89.8) and more than doubled up the Patriots in passing touchdowns (41 to 19). That said, he's atop New England's target pecking order and could come close to repeating last year's numbers, despite the relatively low weekly upside.

DeVante Parker: Parker averaged 11.5 yards per target and finished with a 66% catch rate, both of which were career highs, but his final numbers (31/539/3) amounted to another year of fantasy mediocrity. The Patriots gave Parker a new "pay-as-he-produces" (incentive-laden) three-year contract, but his fantasy outlook remains about as boring as the team's general offensive outlook.

TIGHT ENDS

Player	Rec.	Yards	TD	Points
Hunter Henry	43	477.7	2.8	86.07
Mike Gesicki	41.9	481.6	2.7	85.31
Pharaoh Brown	8.2	82.6	0.4	14.76

Hunter Henry: Henry finished last season with 41 catches for 509 yards and two touchdowns, the lowest numbers of his career when you exclude 2016 (his rookie campaign) and 2018 (missed entire season). The Patriots are expected to significantly increase their usage of 12 personnel (one running back and two tight ends) in 2023 after ranking only 25th in that grouping in 2022.

Mike Gesicki: Like Henry, Gesicki is coming off non-rookie lows in receptions (32), targets (52) and yards (362). The uber-athletic tight end will get an opportunity to reset in an offense that should be more likely to fully utilize his skill set.

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Saturday, August 26, 2023

2023 NFL Division Predictions: AFC East

Before the start of the season, I will post my division-by-division predictions for the 2023 NFL regular season and postseason.

Instead of projecting an outright winner and loser in all 272 regular-season games, I've assigned a win probability to each team in every game and totalled them up.

Check out our 2023 NFL Predictions page for other divisions.

With that said, here are our early AFC East projections for each team including their win total.

1. Buffalo Bills - Projected Wins: 10.32

The Bills have clinched three consecutive AFC East titles while finishing with four consecutive 10-win seasons. Since taking over as head coach, Sean McDermott has led the Bills to the postseason in five of six seasons. While they are the team to beat, this division is arguably the strongest from top to bottom in the NFL.

It all starts with Josh Allen, who has a 17-game average over the past three seasons of 4,591 passing yards, 36 touchdowns and 13 interceptions to go along with 675 rushing yards and seven more touchdowns. The dual-threat talent has flourished since the team traded for Stefon Diggs, who has 338/4,189/29 receiving during that three-year span. The addition of Dalton Kincaid, their first-round pick, to join Dawson Knox, James Cook, and Gabe Davis round out a talented group of pass catchers. Diggs recently talked up Davis, saying he's "damn near WR1 in my eyes." Ranking second in the NFL in total offense and scoring offense last season, the Bills will once again have one of the league's most explosive offenses.

Rocking wit my dawgs… Bills mafia ❤️💙 through and through !!!
— DIGGS (@stefondiggs) August 21, 2023

The defense lost Terrell Edmunds, who signed a free-agent deal with the Chicago Bears, but the team has finished first or second in scoring defense in three of the past four seasons. They have finished top six in total defense in four of the past five seasons. Because of their strength of both sides of the ball, it's not surprising that they have led the NFL in scoring differential in back-to-back seasons.

Despite the challenge the Bills will face from the rest of the division, our expectation is that they will win their fourth consecutive division title. Given the expectations of the team and fan base, what will really matter is how deep into the postseason they will go. (It's been 30 years — the 1993 season — since the Bills have made it to the Super Bowl.)

MORE: Buffalo Bills 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

2. Miami Dolphins - Projected Wins: 9.23

First-year head coach Mike McDaniel led the Dolphins to the playoffs in 2022. Although they lost to the Bills by a field goal in the Wild Card round, it was their first playoff appearance since the 2016 season and only their third trip to the postseason in two decades.

The Dolphins started the season 8-3, losing only in the three games that Tua Tagovailoa either left early or missed. Tagovailoa was outstanding through Week 12 — 69.7% completion rate, 9.03 Y/A, 19-to-three TD-INT ratio and 115.7 passer rating. He wasn't as good in December (0-4 in four starts before missing the final three games including their playoff loss), but the offense was generally firing on all cylinders as he led the NFL in TD% (6.3), Y/A (8.9), and passer rating (105.5) in 2022.

The duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are as talented as any duo in the league, and Hill averaged more than 100 yards per game for the first time in his career last season. The Dolphins have a lot of speed at the skill positions, and a deep rotation of running backs, when healthy, with Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr. and Devon Achane. As long Tagovailoa stays healthy, McDaniel & Co. will operate one of the NFL's top offenses.

Vic Fangio will take over Miami's defense, and he'll be reunited with Bradley Chubb from his time in Denver. Meanwhile, former first-rounder Jaelan Phillips has had two strong seasons (15.5 career sacks) already, and he finished as PFF's sixth-graded edge in 2022. As an ascending prospect now coached by one of the league's best defensive minds, Phillips is a player that will appear on many breakout lists heading into 2023. While the defense should apply plenty of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, they have a talented secondary led by Xavien Howard, Jalen Ramsey (when he returns) and Jevon Holland, among others.

MORE: Miami Dolphins 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

3. New York Jets - Projected Wins: 8.92

Maybe it's too early to call Zach Wilson a "bust," but it would be an understatement to say that he has struggled early in his young career. Through two seasons (22 games), Wilson has thrown more interceptions (18) than touchdowns (15) and has completed only 55.2% of his pass attempts. Both Mike White and Joe Flacco each started four games in 2022, but the Jets will bank on Aaron Rodgers being that missing piece on an otherwise talented roster.

Rodgers is coming off a down year himself, but he's a four-time NFL MVP. While Breece Hall is rehabbing a torn ACL, he was coming into his own before the injury and could provide a boost to the offense as the season progresses. That said, signing Dalvin Cook means that Jets won't need to put too much on Hall's plate before he's ready. Meanwhile, Garrett Wilson won NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (83/1,103/4) despite the team's poor quarterback play last season. Rodgers will find comfort and familiar faces in Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb.

Not only did the Jets have the Offensive ROY, but they had the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year as well. In fact, Sauce Gardner was first-team AP All-Pro in 2022 as a rookie. With a defense anchored by defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and Gardner, the Jets ranked top four in the NFL in both scoring and total defense in 2022. Only the Eagles (4.78) allowed fewer yards per play than the Jets (4.84) last season

Obviously, Jets' fans are hoping for major improvements on offense by trading for Rodgers. But even if they offense is middle of the road, they have a chance to challenge for a division title in one of the league's most competitive divisions. And if they make the postseason, they will end the NFL's longest active playoff drought (12 seasons).

MORE: New York Jets 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

4. New England Patriots - Projected Wins: 7.71

February 3, 2019: The last time that the Patriots have won a playoff game. While they have made the playoffs in two of the past four seasons, they have exited in the Wild Card round in both of those seasons (2019 and 2021).

During the Tom Brady era (2001-2019), the Patriots were top 12 in scoring offense every single season. From 2004-2019, they finished outside the top 12 in total offense only once (15th, 2019). Since then, they have finished 27th, 15th and 26th in total offense, respectively. With Bill O'Brien returning to run the offense, it should be better than it was last season and Rhamondre Stevenson is a versatile and talented young running back. That said, they would rank fourth in the division if we were to power rank quarterback situations, and their receiving corps won't scare any opposing secondaries. This could potentially be a make-or-break season for Mac Jones.

The strength of New England's team is its defense. Matt Judon is one of the league's better edge rushers, and Christian Barmore is a talented young player. Although he tends to zig when others zag, Bill Belichick hit it straight down the fairway and got a steal with Oregon cornerback Christian Gonzalez in the first round. New England's defense ranked fourth in fewest yards per play allowed, and only the Dallas Cowboys (33) had more takeaways than the Patriots (30), who tied for second with the San Francisco 49ers. They ranked second behind the 49ers (25.7%) in the NFL in percentage of drives ending in a score (30.5%).

With matchups against the Eagles, Dolphins, Jets and Cowboys to open the season, the Patriots have a brutal start to their season and will likely enter each of their first four games as underdogs against teams with outstanding defenses.

MORE: New England Patriots 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

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Monday, August 7, 2023

New England Patriots 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

Our Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2023 fantasy football projections for the New England Patriots.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

Player	Att.	Comp.	Yards	TD	INT	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Mac Jones	522.1	343.3	3680.8	18.8	13.05	46.3	111.1	0.58	210.92
Bailey Zappe	36.3	24.1	259.5	1.38	0.96	4.4	13.2	0.04	15.54

RUNNING BACKS

Player	Att.	Yards	TD	Rec.	Yards	TD	Points
Rhamondre Stevenson	218.2	992.8	6	49.6	354.6	1.6	205.14
Kevin Harris	81.5	346.4	1.83	9.2	69	0.3	58.92
Pierre Strong	38.6	167.9	0.77	17.1	130	0.6	46.56
Ty Montgomery	40.8	175.4	1.02	15.4	118.2	0.5	46.18

Rhamondre Stevenson: Stevenson is coming off a breakout season (1,040 rushing yards, 69 receptions for 421 yards and six total touchdowns) and could be set for an even larger role with Damien Harris (106 carries in 11 games) now in Buffalo. (The Patriots have had several high-profile free-agent veteran running backs in for visits lately, so that's something to continue to monitor.) Stevenson had multiple receptions in all but one game in 2022 and while he had single-digit carries in six of 17 games, the now-departed Harris had more carries than Stevenson in four of those six games.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Player	Rec.	Yards	TD	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
JuJu Smith-Schuster	73.5	817.6	4.3	0	0	0	144.31
Tyquan Thornton	44.1	581.2	2.9	4.4	24.2	0.22	101.31
DeVante Parker	40.4	531.9	2.5	0	0	0	88.39
Kendrick Bourne	20.6	236.4	1.2	6.6	42.9	0.23	46.81
Demario Douglas	7.3	82.7	0.4	0	0	0	14.32
Kayshon Boutte	2.4	29.6	0.2	0	0	0	5.36

Tyquan Thornton: Thornton has elite speed (4.28 40-yard dash), and the second-round speedster could take a step forward as he enters his second season. Despite a whopping 14.9 ADOT (per PFF), Thornton averaged only 5.5 yards per target due to a 48.9% catch rate and 12% drop rate as a rookie.

TIGHT ENDS

Player	Rec.	Yards	TD	Points
Hunter Henry	43.2	478.7	2.8	86.27
Mike Gesicki	42.1	482.7	2.8	86.12
Matt Sokol	2.6	27.6	0.2	5.26

Hunter Henry: Henry finished last season with 41 catches for 509 yards and two touchdowns, the lowest numbers of his career when you exclude 2016 (his rookie campaign) and 2018 (missed entire season). After ranking only 25th in 12-personnel usage (one RB/two TEs) in 2022, it's expected that the Patriots will increase their usage of 12 personnel significantly in 2023.

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Monday, September 5, 2022

New England Patriots Fantasy Football Projections 2022

Our 2022 Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2022 fantasy football projections for the New England Patriots.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

Player	Att.	Comp.	Yards	TD	INT	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Mac Jones	492	327.2	3517.8	21.65	11.07	44.3	132.9	0.66	222.42
Brian Hoyer	37	24.1	259	1.11	0.74	4.9	4.9	0.05	14.11

Mac Jones: Despite being the last selected of five first-round quarterbacks in 2021, Jones played the best out of that group even if he was "way too protected" by the Patriots offense as a rookie. The "Pro Bowler" ended his rookie campaign with 3,801 passing yards (7.3 Y/A), 22 touchdowns (4.2%) and 13 interceptions (2.5%). The offensive line and offensive coaching create some concerns that could inhibit Jones' growth in his second season.

RUNNING BACKS

Player	Att.	Yards	TD	Rec.	Yards	TD	Points
Damien Harris	202	909	7.07	16.7	120.9	0.7	157.96
Rhamondre Stevenson	167.5	737	5.78	30	219.1	1.2	152.49
Ty Montgomery	30.8	135.5	0.77	12.8	103.9	0.6	38.56
Pierre Strong	27.1	117.9	0.68	7.9	54.8	0.4	27.7

Damien Harris: Harris set career highs in rush attempts (202), rushing yards (929) and rushing touchdowns (15) in 2021. Finishing last season as fantasy's RB8 in non-PPR scoring, he still ended the year inside the top 14 across all scoring formats. Although he was the subject of some trade speculation, the contract-year running back remains on the roster although the gap between him and Rhamondre Stevenson may be minimal.

Rhamondre Stevenson: Stevenson carried the ball 133 times for 606 yards (4.56 YPC) and five touchdowns as a rookie, and added 14 catches for 123 yards. He had 19-plus carries in three games last season and finished with 100-plus rushing yards and a pair of scores in two of them. Bill Belichick has talked up Stevenson's development in the pass game and said "it might even become a strength." Even if Harris enters the season as the 1A to Stevenson's 1B, it wouldn't be a shock if the former Sooner emerges as the team's most productive back.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Player	Rec.	Yards	TD	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Jakobi Meyers	67.6	745.9	3.8	0	0	0	131.19
DeVante Parker	52.9	676	4	0	0	0	118.05
Kendrick Bourne	35	413.6	2.5	7.4	48.1	0.15	79.57
Nelson Agholor	29	360.7	2.1	2.5	11.3	0.05	64.6
Tyquan Thornton	14.1	192.6	1	0	0	0	32.31
Matthew Slater	0.5	5.7	0	0	0	0	0.82

Jakobi Meyers: The good news is that Meyers finally scored a touchdown, actually two of them, to go along with 126 targets, 83 catches and 866 yards in 2021. Even with the Patriots trading for DeVante Parker, there's a decent chance that Meyers will lead the team in target share, receptions and yards, but the lack of red zone production gives him little upside.

DeVante Parker: As the saying goes, "the best ability is availability" and Parker has struggled with durability. With his 2019 season being the exception, Parker has missed multiple games in four of the past five seasons and has averaged only 12.8 games over that span. His 17-game pace during that stretch is 68/927/5 and it wouldn't surprise me if he was New England's most productive receiver if he stays healthy in 2022.

TIGHT ENDS

Player	Rec.	Yards	TD	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Hunter Henry	53.2	553.3	4.3	0	0	0	107.73
Jonnu Smith	31.6	330.5	2.2	6.2	34.1	0.16	66.42

Hunter Henry: Henry's 2021 per-game numbers in receptions (2.9) and yards (35.5) were the lowest of his career outside of his rookie season. That said, he set a career high in touchdowns (nine).

Jonnu Smith: Smith had five-plus targets in each of his first four games as a Patriot, but then he was a recipient of five targets in only one of his other 12 games in 2021. With only one touchdown last season, Smith never finished better than TE15 (half-PPR scoring) in any game last season. Belichick has said that Smith has "had a really good offseason" and that "he's put himself in position to, I think, go out and play well."

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Monday, October 4, 2021

Fantasy Football QB Waiver-Wire Options Heading Into Week 5

Every week, we examine players that may be available on your league's waiver wire that could help your team in the short and/or long term.

For a player to be listed, he must be rostered in 50 percent (or less) of Yahoo! leagues. The goal is to provide recommendations of players that have a greater chance of being available on your league's waiver wire. Of course, your league's size and settings could significantly impact whether these players (or better options) are available in your particular league(s).

With that said, here are some quarterback waiver-wire options to consider heading into Week 5 (Yahoo! % rostered in parenthesis):

Rank	Player	Team	Roster %
1	Trey Lance	San Francisco 49ers	30%
2	Daniel Jones	New York Giants	31%
3	Sam Darnold	Carolina Panthers	37%
4	Mac Jones	New England Patriots	17%
5	Justin Fields	Chicago Bears	42%
6	Taylor Heinicke	Washington Football Team	10%
7	Jared Goff	Detroit Lions	13%

1. Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers (30%)

In previous iterations of our waiver-wire column, I've noted that Lance becomes a better option as each week passes given the expectation that the No. 3 overall pick eventually becomes the starter at some point this season. With a Week 6 bye, Week 7 has seemed like a logical transition point to Lance.

With Jimmy Garoppolo sustaining a calf injury this week, however, Lance was forced to take over in the second half. The rookie completed nine-of-18 for 157 yards (8.7 Y/A) and two touchdowns and added 41 rushing yards on seven carries and a two-point conversion. Lance scored more than 20 fantasy points in a half of action.

That said, Garoppolo said he has "hope [he misses] just a couple of weeks or something." Given his dual-threat abilities, Lance has enormous upside and it's unlikely that Jimmy G. gets the starting job back.

2. Daniel Jones, Daniel Jones (31%)

Jones threw for a season-high 402 yards and two touchdowns against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. Scoring 27.78 fantasy points in the OT win, Jones has now scored 21-plus fantasy points in three of four games this season and currently ranks among the top-six fantasy QBs on the season (through Sunday's games).

The Giants will head to Dallas in Week 5. Historically (four games, three starts), Jones has had modest performances against the Cowboys -- no more than 229 passing yards in any game.

The Cowboys have been playing better defense this year and Trevon Diggs (five interceptions) is developing into one of the league's top corners, but the Cowboys have allowed four 300-yard passing games through four weeks. In each of those games, the Cowboys have faced a minimum of 39 pass attempts and three of the four quarterbacks they've faced have scored at least 22 fantasy points.

Even if he doesn't post gaudy passing statistics, Jones has the underrated ability to make plays with his legs. With 188 rushing yards through four games, he's on pace for 799 rushing yards. While unlikely to get that close to 800 rushing yards, he ranked seventh among QBs in rushing last season.

3. Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers (37%)

Despite the loss in Dallas in Week 4, it's been so far, so good for Darnold. Not only does the 24-year-old quarterback have three consecutive 300-yard passing games, but he has rushed for multiple scores in back-to-back games. Through Sunday's games, Darnold is a top-five fantasy quarterback on the season.

With a matchup against the Eagles in Week 5, Darnold is once again worthy of streamer status.

Note: Mac Jones faces the Houston Texans, Dallas Cowboys and New York Jets over the next three weeks, which sets up favorably for some streaming opportunities.

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Friday, October 1, 2021

New England Patriots Week 4 NFL Power Rankings Roundup

Throughout the 2021 NFL season, we will compile a consensus NFL Power Rankings that averages the rankings of all 32 NFL teams.

Here is where the New England Patriots rank in terms of average, best and worst:

Average ranking: 20.8 (T-20th)
Best ranking: 19th (ESPN)
Worst ranking: 23rd (NFL.com)

Below you will find a Week 4 roundup for the Patriots in our consensus 2021 NFL Power Rankings.

ESPN -- Rank: 19

Mac Jones has completed 81 of 120 passes for 737 yards and two touchdowns with three interceptions. Jones is growing into the job, and there have been some predictable rookie growing pains -- such as his first interception against the Saints on Sunday. He has been solid in the shorter passing game, but he hasn't been able to consistently connect down the field. Overall, teammates are bullish on him as their leader, and that should bode well for his development. "Tough kid, poised, kept throwing punches," starting center David Andrews said. -- Mike Reiss

NFL.com -- Rank: 23

The Patriots were the NFL's gold standard for so long that it's almost jarring to see how ordinary Bill Belichick's team has become. New England authored no flashbacks to former glories on Sunday, a listless 28-13 loss to the Saints that featured three Mac Jones interceptions. This uneasy period of self-reflection comes at an awkward time for the organization: Tom Brady makes his return to Gillette Stadium on Sunday night with a great chance to set the NFL's all-time passing-yardage mark. Brady continues to cast a huge shadow over the organization -- this week is going to feel like a total eclipse. "The Patriots have done nothing but win for a long time," Jones said after losing to New Orleans. "We have to get back to that." The rookie has opted into a world of impossible expectations.

CBS Sports -- Rank: 20

What the heck was that against the Saints? They looked flat as can be. Mac Jones still has a long ways to go. Here comes Tom Brady.

USA Today -- Rank: 22

They're 0-2 at home for the first time since Bill Belichick took over in 2000 ... and staring down the barrel of 0-3 with prodigal son TB12 on his way back to Foxborough.

The Athletic -- Rank: 20

Surprise! For all that money the Patriots spent in the offseason on skill-position players, the offense isn't any more dynamic, and the new, high-priced additions aren't having significant impact. Receiver Jakobi Meyers leads the Patriots in receiving targets by a wide margin (29, 11 more than newcomer Nelson Agholor) and neither of the new tight ends, Hunter Henry or Jonnu Smith, has a touchdown yet.

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Saturday, September 18, 2021

New England Patriots Week 2 NFL Power Rankings Roundup

Throughout the 2021 NFL season, we will compile a consensus NFL Power Rankings that averages the rankings of all 32 NFL teams.

Here is where the New England Patriots rank in terms of average, best and worst:

Average ranking: 17.6 (18th)
Best ranking: 15th (NFL.com)
Worst ranking: 20th (CBS Sports)

Below you will find a Week 2 roundup for the Patriots in our consensus 2021 NFL Power Rankings.

ESPN -- Rank: 17

Top rookie: QB Mac Jones

Finishing 29-of-39 for 281 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions, Jones was arguably the Patriots' best player in a season-opening loss to the Dolphins. Opposing players were impressed. "He didn't really make any mistakes. He was poised," Dolphins defensive back Jason McCourty said. "Even watching him in the huddle, getting guys in, yelling, commanding. ... He gave his team a chance to win." -- Mike Reiss

NFL.com -- Rank: 15

Bill Belichick is notoriously fickle with his running backs, so you can only imagine the sleepless nights Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson suffered after each lost fumbles in a one-point loss to the Dolphins. Harris' fumble, which occurred late in the fourth quarter with the Pats in field-goal range, is the type of miscue that could cost him his hard-earned bell-cow role. The biggest positive came at quarterback, where Mac Jones looked fully capable of leading Josh McDaniels' offense going forward. The first-round pick settled into a nice groove as the game progressed and showed off impressive touch and accuracy on several throws. It will be a long week of practice for Pats players, but this team has significant potential for improvement.

CBS Sports -- Rank: 20

Mac Jones did some good things against Miami, but just not enough to win his first game. He now heads to the road to face the Jets in a winnable game.

USA Today -- Rank: 17

RB Damien Harris squandered a 100-yard day with a fourth-quarter fumble New England couldn't recover from. Good luck getting out of Belichick's doghouse, Damien ...

The Athletic -- Rank: 19

Overreaction: Mac Jones throws for 281 yards with zero turnovers in his NFL debut and the Patriots still lose? The late fumble by Damien Harris was a killer, and three drives stalling inside the Miami 25 didn't help. If the rookie quarterback isn't what you're worried about, you don't want to have many larger problems than that. They can still beat the Jets, right? -- Auman

Reality check: I hope we'll eventually get to see a less conservative offensive game plan, but right now it's hard to ask for much more out of Jones. -- Jones

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Wednesday, September 1, 2021

Fantasy Football Projections 2021: New England Patriots

Our 2021 Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2021 fantasy football projections for the New England Patriots.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

Player	Att.	Comp.	Yards	TD	INT	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Mac Jones	563.2	366.1	4083.2	24.22	12.67	41.4	128.3	1.04	253.94
Jarrett Stidham	17.4	10.4	118.3	0.73	0.68	4.6	3.5	0.05	6.94

Mac Jones: While it would be unfair to compare any quarterback to Tom Brady, Jones (like Brady) makes up for a lack of elite arm strength and mobility with quick processing ability and accuracy. Not only did Jones beat out Cam Newton for the starting job, but he won't have to look other his shoulder (if he struggles) with Newton no longer on the roster.

RUNNING BACKS

Player	Att.	Yards	TD	Rec.	Yards	TD	Points
Damien Harris	230.1	1058.5	5.75	21.6	170.2	0.9	173.57
James White	57.5	221.4	1.29	55.5	464.3	2.8	120.86
Rhamondre Stevenson	98.9	430.2	2.47	8.5	65.1	0.2	69.8
J.J. Taylor	19.6	86.2	0.29	1.5	10.5	0	12.16
Jakob Johnson	0	0	0	5.6	31.5	0.2	7.15
Brandon Bolden	1.2	5.2	0.03	1.1	8.4	0	2.09

Damien Harris: In terms of usage, Harris has been a non-factor as a receiver (five receptions in 2020) and that may not change much with James White returning to Foxboro given his well-defined third-down role within the Patriots offense. With New England handing the keys to the franchise to Mac Jones, the fantasy outlook for Harris should improve as he won't have to worry about Cam Newton vulturing rushing touchdowns.

James White: With Tom Brady in Tampa, White set five-year lows in targets (62), touches (84), yards from scrimmage (496) and touchdowns (three). White benefits from the team moving on from Cam Newton as it should translate into fewer QB rush attempts and more running back targets.

Rhamondre Stevenson: Stevenson's strong play -- 30/216/5 rushing in three preseason games -- was one factor the Patriots were comfortable parting ways with Sony Michel. Even so, the fourth-round rookie out of Oklahoma will likely need an injury to either Harris and/or White to be a factor in fantasy this season.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Player	Rec.	Yards	TD	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Jakobi Meyers	64.9	794.1	3.9	1.2	5.4	0.02	135.92
Nelson Agholor	50.8	697.4	4	0	0	0	119.14
Kendrick Bourne	36.7	462.2	2.6	0	0	0	80.17
N'Keal Harry	27.9	329.8	2.3	0.9	5.4	0.02	61.39
Gunner Olszewski	2.8	33.6	0.2	1.4	6.4	0.03	6.78

Jakobi Meyers: Meyers led the Patriots with 81 targets, 59 receptions and 729 yards in 2020. While the team added Nelson Agholor and Kendall Bourne in free agency, there's a good chance that the Meyers leads the position group in receiving once again.

Nelson Agholor: Agholor set a career high in receiving yards (896) and tied a career high in touchdowns (eight) in his lone season in Las Vegas. While I expect Meyers to continue to perform as the team's WR1, it wouldn't surprise me if Agholor came close to duplicating his 2020 numbers.

TIGHT ENDS

Player	Rec.	Yards	TD	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Jonnu Smith	47.1	554.6	3.8	3.5	29.8	0.18	105.87
Hunter Henry	47.6	529.4	3.6	0	0	0	98.34
Devin Asiasi	4.7	50.4	0.4	0	0	0	9.79

Jonnu Smith: One year after investing a pair of Day 2 picks at the position, the Patriots double-dipped in the free-agent tight end market with Smith and Hunter Henry. Smith scored more touchdowns in 2020 (nine including a rushing score) than he did in his first three NFL seasons combined (eight). And while he set career highs in targets (65), receptions (41) and receiving yards (448), Smith likely frustrated his fantasy managers as he was held to 20 receiving yards or less in more than half of his games last season.

Hunter Henry: Missing multiple games in four consecutive seasons including all of 2018, Henry had 60 catches on 93 targets, both of which were career highs, for 613 yards and four touchdowns in 2020. Unfortunately for both Smith and Henry, however, their individual upside may cancel each other out.

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Friday, August 20, 2021

2021 Fantasy Football Projections: New England Patriots

Our 2021 Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2021 fantasy football projections for the New England Patriots.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

Player	Att.	Comp.	Yards	TD	INT	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Cam Newton	339.2	217.8	2442.2	13.74	8.14	82.1	353	5.34	203.71
Mac Jones	203.5	132.3	1475.4	8.75	4.58	19.9	61.7	0.5	94.03

Cam Newton: Newton struggled as a passer in 2020 and many reasons -- return from injury, new team with unusual offseason, lack of pass-catching talent, etc. -- attributed to his woeful passing numbers. Even though 33 quarterbacks threw more touchdowns than Newton (eight) and he threw more interceptions (10) than touchdowns, he also scored the 16th-most fantasy points as he rushed for 12 touchdowns.

Likely to run for fewer scores and throw for more, Newton has improved weapons in the passing game. At this point of the preseason, Newton appears to be in the driver's seat for the starting job even though Mac Jones, New England's first-round pick, has made it a real competition. If Newton struggles, however, it's possible that the Patriots make a (permanent) midseason switch to Jones.

Mac Jones: While it would be unfair to compare any quarterback to Tom Brady, Jones (like Brady) makes up for a lack of elite arm strength and mobility with quick processing ability and accuracy. It would be reasonable to assume that Jones makes some starts during the season even if he doesn't win the job outright to begin the season.

RUNNING BACKS

Player	Att.	Yards	TD	Rec.	Yards	TD	Points
Damien Harris	216.5	995.9	5.41	15.9	127.3	0.6	156.33
James White	42.3	158.6	0.95	51.6	440.7	2.6	107.03
Sony Michel	69.7	299.7	1.74	6.7	45.1	0.1	48.87
Rhamondre Stevenson	56	243.6	1.4	5.4	43.1	0.2	40.97
J.J. Taylor	2.5	11	0.04	1.4	9.8	0	3.02
Brandon Bolden	1.2	5.2	0.03	1.1	5.9	0	1.84

Damien Harris: In terms of usage, Harris is a non-factor as a receiver (five receptions in 2020) and that likely won't change much with James White returning to Foxboro given his well-defined third-down role within the Patriots offense. The other major obstacle to Harris being a top-24 option is the presence of Cam Newton, who rushed for six times as many touchdowns as Harris (12 to two) in 2020. As long as Newton holds off Mac Jones as the starter, there is the chance/likelihood that he vultures goal-line opportunities from Harris. While the skill set is there for a breakout, he's more correctly drafted as a flex option, which matches his ADP.

James White: With Tom Brady in Tampa, White set five-year lows in targets (62), touches (84), yards from scrimmage (496) and touchdowns (three). White would likely benefit from a quarterback shift from Newton to Jones as it would likely translate into fewer QB rush attempts and more running back targets.

Rhamondre Stevenson: Stevenson's strong play -- 25/193/4 rushing in two preseason games -- could lead to the Patriots parting ways with Sony Michel. Even so, the fourth-round rookie out of Oklahoma is unlikely to carry much fantasy value in 2021 as both Harris and White will be featured more prominently even if Michel is cut/dealt.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Player	Rec.	Yards	TD	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Jakobi Meyers	60.4	722.8	3.5	1.2	5.4	0.02	124.14
Nelson Agholor	47.3	638.6	3.5	0	0	0	108.51
Kendrick Bourne	34.1	430.9	2.3	0	0	0	73.94
N'Keal Harry	32.9	385.9	2.5	1	6	0.02	70.76
Gunner Olszewski	2.6	29.4	0.2	1.5	6.9	0.03	6.31

TIGHT ENDS

Player	Rec.	Yards	TD	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Jonnu Smith	42	505.4	3.3	3.7	31.5	0.19	95.63
Hunter Henry	44.3	485.8	3.2	0	0	0	89.93
Devin Asiasi	4.4	47	0.3	0	0	0	8.7

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Wednesday, August 4, 2021

Fantasy Football Projections 2021: New England Patriots

Our 2021 Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2021 fantasy football projections for the New England Patriots.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

Player	Att.	Comp.	Yards	TD	INT	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Cam Newton	325.7	209.1	2345	13.19	7.82	79.6	342.3	5.17	196.17
Mac Jones	217.1	141.1	1574	9.34	4.88	22.4	69.4	0.56	100.86

Cam Newton: Newton struggled as a passer and many reasons -- return from injury, new team with unusual offseason, lack of pass-catching talent, etc. -- attributed to his woeful passing numbers. Even though 33 quarterbacks threw more touchdowns than Newton (eight) and he threw more interceptions (10) than touchdowns, he also scored the 16th-most fantasy points as he rushed for 12 touchdowns.

Likely to run for fewer scores and throw for more, Newton has improved weapons in the passing game. If he struggles, however, it's possible that the Patriots make a (permanent) midseason switch to first-round pick Mac Jones.

Mac Jones: While it would be unfair to compare any quarterback to Tom Brady, Jones (like Brady) makes up for a lack of elite arm strength and mobility with quick processing ability and accuracy. It would be reasonable to assume that Jones makes some starts during the season even if he doesn't win the job outright to begin the season.

RUNNING BACKS

Player	Att.	Yards	TD	Rec.	Yards	TD	Points
Damien Harris	214	984.4	5.35	14	107.8	0.5	151.32
James White	42.3	158.6	0.95	51.7	440.9	2.6	107.1
Sony Michel	87.1	374.5	2.18	7	49	0.2	60.13
Rhamondre Stevenson	41.1	178.8	0.82	5.3	41.1	0.2	30.76
J.J. Taylor	2.5	11	0.04	1.4	9.8	0	3.02
Brandon Bolden	1.2	5.2	0.04	1.2	7.8	0	2.14

Damien Harris: Harris is a non-factor as a receiver (five receptions in 2020) and that likely won't change much with James White returning to Foxboro. The other major obstacle to Harris being a top-24 option is the presence of Cam Newton, who rushed for six times as many touchdowns as Harris (12 to two) in 2020. As long as Newton holds off Mac Jones as the starter, there is the chance/likelihood that he vultures goal-line opportunities from Harris.

James White: With Tom Brady in Tampa, White set five-year lows in targets (62), touches (84), yards from scrimmage (496) and touchdowns (three). White would likely benefit from a quarterback shift from Newton to Jones as it would likely translate into more running back targets and fewer QB rush attempts.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Player	Rec.	Yards	TD	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Jakobi Meyers	58.7	703.5	3.4	1.2	5.4	0.02	120.76
Nelson Agholor	47.3	634.9	3.5	0	0	0	108.14
Kendrick Bourne	35.9	448.7	2.5	0	0	0	77.82
N'Keal Harry	33.6	393.9	2.6	1	6	0.02	72.51
Gunner Olszewski	2.6	29.4	0.2	1.5	6.9	0.03	6.31

TIGHT ENDS

Player	Rec.	Yards	TD	Rush	Yards	TD	Points
Jonnu Smith	41.3	495.8	3.2	3.7	31.5	0.19	93.72
Hunter Henry	43.2	482	3.1	0	0	0	88.4
Devin Asiasi	4.4	47	0.4	0	0	0	9.3
Dalton Keene	2.6	27.4	0.2	0	0	0	5.24

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Wednesday, September 6, 2023

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Saturday, August 26, 2023

1. Buffalo Bills - Projected Wins: 10.32

2. Miami Dolphins - Projected Wins: 9.23

3. New York Jets - Projected Wins: 8.92

4. New England Patriots - Projected Wins: 7.71

Monday, August 7, 2023

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Monday, September 5, 2022

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Monday, October 4, 2021

Friday, October 1, 2021

Saturday, September 18, 2021

Wednesday, September 1, 2021

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Friday, August 20, 2021

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Wednesday, August 4, 2021

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