Showing posts with label Kendrick Bourne. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kendrick Bourne. Show all posts

Sunday, May 19, 2024

New England Patriots 2024 Fantasy Football Projections

Our Fantasy Football Projections will soon be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2024 fantasy football projections for the New England Patriots.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDPoints
Drake Maye411.7251.1277914.4111.1252.9224.82.65184.94
Jacoby Brissett137.287.8905.54.392.214.859.20.8560.4

Drake Maye: The Patriots drafted Maye third overall, and it's obvious he's the team's quarterback of the future. But will that future begin in Week 1? Currently, I project Jacoby Brissett to make roughly a quarter of the team's starts. With one of the league's least dynamic receiving corps, the passing numbers will likely be modest whether he starts Week 1 or takes over later in the year. Even so, his mobility and rushing upside could make him a viable streaming option.

Jacoby Brissett: Back with the team that drafted him in 2016, Brissett will play for his fifth team in five seasons. Across 48 career starts, Brissett has averaged only 208.2 passing yards and one passing touchdown per game. He lacks fantasy upside, even if he begins the year as the starter.

RUNNING BACKS

PlayerAtt.YardsTDRec.YardsTDPoints
Rhamondre Stevenson191.4813.55.2646.6359.21.4180.53
Antonio Gibson127.3528.33.0634.7267.11.3123.05
Kevin Harris24.398.40.734.129.50.119.82
JaMycal Hasty5.522.80.152.920.30.17.26

Rhamondre Stevenson: New England had one of the league's worst offenses — 30th in total offense, 29th in yards per play and 31st in scoring offense — in 2023, and now they will most likely give most of their snaps to a rookie quarterback. The situation limits his ceiling, but Stevenson is a solid RB2 in fantasy. He's two years removed from a 1,461-yard and 69-reception season.

Antonio Gibson: While he exceeded 1,000 scrimmage yards and scored double-digit touchdowns in each of his first two seasons, Gibson set career lows in touches (113), scrimmage yards (654) and touchdowns (three) in 2023. On a positive note, he gets a fresh start in New England.

WIDE RECEIVERS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Demario Douglas50.8657.73.15.326.50.27114.04
Ja'Lynn Polk50650.33000108.03
Kendrick Bourne43.75252.61.560.0690.91
JuJu Smith-Schuster21.2221.11.200039.91
Javon Baker14.1178.70.900030.32
K.J. Osborn6.477.40.500013.94
Jalen Reagor2.227.60.10004.46

Demario Douglas: Although he failed to score a touchdown, Douglas had 49 catches for 561 yards as a late-round rookie (210th overall) last season. Douglas had at least five targets in his final nine games, and he averaged 4.3 catches for 46.4 yards on 6.9 targets per game over that stretch.

Ja'Lynn Polk: Polk doesn't have the elite long-term upside of his former Washington Huskies teammate Rome Odunze (92/1,640/13), but he has excellent ball skills and body control and was highly productive in his final collegiate season (69/1,159/9). The Patriots used a high second-round pick (37th overall) on Polk, and he has the potential to lead the team's receiving corps in fantasy production.

TIGHT ENDS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Hunter Henry43.2469.8300086.58
Austin Hooper15.1160.31.100030.18
Jaheim Bell2.223.90.20004.69
Mitchell Wilcox1.716.60.20003.71

Hunter Henry: Through three seasons in New England, Henry has finished with 41 to 50 catches, 419 to 603 yards, and two to nine touchdowns. Henry's primary fantasy success will be tied to his TD production — will the number be closer to the two or nine ends of that range?

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Wednesday, September 6, 2023

New England Patriots 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

Our Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2023 fantasy football projections for the New England Patriots.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDPoints
Mac Jones522.1343.33680.818.813.0548.5116.40.61211.63
Matt Corral36.322.5250.51.20.9815.455.40.3520.5

Mac Jones: Jones missed some time in 2022, so his counting stats were down, but so were his efficiency numbers — 65.2% completion rate (67.6% in 2021), 3.2 TD% (4.2%), 6.8 Y/A (7.3) and 84.8 passer rating (92.5). Things should be better (than last year) with Bill O'Brien taking over the offense, but Jones' upside is relatively limited. Jones isn't draftable outside of two-QB or super flex leagues.

RUNNING BACKS

PlayerAtt.YardsTDRec.YardsTDPoints
Rhamondre Stevenson203.8927.35.546.6334.21.5191.45
Ezekiel Elliott163.1660.65.3823.4192.60.8134.1

Rhamondre Stevenson: Stevenson is coming off a breakout season (1,040 rushing yards, 69 receptions for 421 yards and six total touchdowns). Damien Harris (106 carries in 11 games) is now in Buffalo, but the Patriots signed Ezekiel Elliott to fill his void (and potentially more). Stevenson had multiple receptions in all but one game in 2022, and only three running backs — Austin Ekeler (107), Christian McCaffrey (85) and Leonard Fournette (73) — had more receptions than Stevenson last year. The biggest concern with the Elliott signing, however, is the potential to lose goal-line carries to the former Cowboy.

Ezekiel Elliott: By signing with the Patriots, Elliott boosted the fantasy stock (or at least diminished a potential concern) for Tony Pollard. Elliott set career lows in his age-27 season (2022) with 231 carries and 876 rushing yards, and he should set new career lows in 2023. That said, the Patriots have only two running backs on their active 53-man roster heading into 2023, which means that Elliott is likely to outperform his ADP.

WIDE RECEIVERS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
JuJu Smith-Schuster74.1815.74.2000143.82
DeVante Parker51.8640.83000107.98
Kendrick Bourne32.4353.81.86.642.90.2368.05
Demario Douglas212281.200040.5
Tyquan Thornton17.4255.51.33.318.20.1744.89
Kayshon Boutte668.80.400012.28

JuJu Smith-Schuster: Smith-Schuster had 78 catches for 933 yards and three touchdowns in his lone season with the Chiefs. It's fair to say the transition from Patrick Mahomes to Mac Jones is a significant downgrade. After all, the Chiefs averaged nearly 90 more passing yards per game (89.8) and more than doubled up the Patriots in passing touchdowns (41 to 19). That said, he's atop New England's target pecking order and could come close to repeating last year's numbers, despite the relatively low weekly upside.

DeVante Parker: Parker averaged 11.5 yards per target and finished with a 66% catch rate, both of which were career highs, but his final numbers (31/539/3) amounted to another year of fantasy mediocrity. The Patriots gave Parker a new "pay-as-he-produces" (incentive-laden) three-year contract, but his fantasy outlook remains about as boring as the team's general offensive outlook.

TIGHT ENDS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Hunter Henry43477.72.800086.07
Mike Gesicki41.9481.62.700085.31
Pharaoh Brown8.282.60.400014.76

Hunter Henry: Henry finished last season with 41 catches for 509 yards and two touchdowns, the lowest numbers of his career when you exclude 2016 (his rookie campaign) and 2018 (missed entire season). The Patriots are expected to significantly increase their usage of 12 personnel (one running back and two tight ends) in 2023 after ranking only 25th in that grouping in 2022.

Mike Gesicki: Like Henry, Gesicki is coming off non-rookie lows in receptions (32), targets (52) and yards (362). The uber-athletic tight end will get an opportunity to reset in an offense that should be more likely to fully utilize his skill set.

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Monday, September 5, 2022

New England Patriots Fantasy Football Projections 2022

Our 2022 Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2022 fantasy football projections for the New England Patriots.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDPoints
Mac Jones492327.23517.821.6511.0744.3132.90.66222.42
Brian Hoyer3724.12591.110.744.94.90.0514.11

Mac Jones: Despite being the last selected of five first-round quarterbacks in 2021, Jones played the best out of that group even if he was "way too protected" by the Patriots offense as a rookie. The "Pro Bowler" ended his rookie campaign with 3,801 passing yards (7.3 Y/A), 22 touchdowns (4.2%) and 13 interceptions (2.5%). The offensive line and offensive coaching create some concerns that could inhibit Jones' growth in his second season.

RUNNING BACKS

PlayerAtt.YardsTDRec.YardsTDPoints
Damien Harris2029097.0716.7120.90.7157.96
Rhamondre Stevenson167.57375.7830219.11.2152.49
Ty Montgomery30.8135.50.7712.8103.90.638.56
Pierre Strong27.1117.90.687.954.80.427.7

Damien Harris: Harris set career highs in rush attempts (202), rushing yards (929) and rushing touchdowns (15) in 2021. Finishing last season as fantasy's RB8 in non-PPR scoring, he still ended the year inside the top 14 across all scoring formats. Although he was the subject of some trade speculation, the contract-year running back remains on the roster although the gap between him and Rhamondre Stevenson may be minimal.

Rhamondre Stevenson: Stevenson carried the ball 133 times for 606 yards (4.56 YPC) and five touchdowns as a rookie, and added 14 catches for 123 yards. He had 19-plus carries in three games last season and finished with 100-plus rushing yards and a pair of scores in two of them. Bill Belichick has talked up Stevenson's development in the pass game and said "it might even become a strength." Even if Harris enters the season as the 1A to Stevenson's 1B, it wouldn't be a shock if the former Sooner emerges as the team's most productive back.

WIDE RECEIVERS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Jakobi Meyers67.6745.93.8000131.19
DeVante Parker52.96764000118.05
Kendrick Bourne35413.62.57.448.10.1579.57
Nelson Agholor29360.72.12.511.30.0564.6
Tyquan Thornton14.1192.6100032.31
Matthew Slater0.55.700000.82

Jakobi Meyers: The good news is that Meyers finally scored a touchdown, actually two of them, to go along with 126 targets, 83 catches and 866 yards in 2021. Even with the Patriots trading for DeVante Parker, there's a decent chance that Meyers will lead the team in target share, receptions and yards, but the lack of red zone production gives him little upside.

DeVante Parker: As the saying goes, "the best ability is availability" and Parker has struggled with durability. With his 2019 season being the exception, Parker has missed multiple games in four of the past five seasons and has averaged only 12.8 games over that span. His 17-game pace during that stretch is 68/927/5 and it wouldn't surprise me if he was New England's most productive receiver if he stays healthy in 2022.

TIGHT ENDS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Hunter Henry53.2553.34.3000107.73
Jonnu Smith31.6330.52.26.234.10.1666.42

Hunter Henry: Henry's 2021 per-game numbers in receptions (2.9) and yards (35.5) were the lowest of his career outside of his rookie season. That said, he set a career high in touchdowns (nine).

Jonnu Smith: Smith had five-plus targets in each of his first four games as a Patriot, but then he was a recipient of five targets in only one of his other 12 games in 2021. With only one touchdown last season, Smith never finished better than TE15 (half-PPR scoring) in any game last season. Belichick has said that Smith has "had a really good offseason" and that "he's put himself in position to, I think, go out and play well."

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Wednesday, September 1, 2021

Fantasy Football Projections 2021: New England Patriots

Our 2021 Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2021 fantasy football projections for the New England Patriots.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDPoints
Mac Jones563.2366.14083.224.2212.6741.4128.31.04253.94
Jarrett Stidham17.410.4118.30.730.684.63.50.056.94

Mac Jones: While it would be unfair to compare any quarterback to Tom Brady, Jones (like Brady) makes up for a lack of elite arm strength and mobility with quick processing ability and accuracy. Not only did Jones beat out Cam Newton for the starting job, but he won't have to look other his shoulder (if he struggles) with Newton no longer on the roster.

RUNNING BACKS

PlayerAtt.YardsTDRec.YardsTDPoints
Damien Harris230.11058.55.7521.6170.20.9173.57
James White57.5221.41.2955.5464.32.8120.86
Rhamondre Stevenson98.9430.22.478.565.10.269.8
J.J. Taylor19.686.20.291.510.5012.16
Jakob Johnson0005.631.50.27.15
Brandon Bolden1.25.20.031.18.402.09

Damien Harris: In terms of usage, Harris has been a non-factor as a receiver (five receptions in 2020) and that may not change much with James White returning to Foxboro given his well-defined third-down role within the Patriots offense. With New England handing the keys to the franchise to Mac Jones, the fantasy outlook for Harris should improve as he won't have to worry about Cam Newton vulturing rushing touchdowns.

James White: With Tom Brady in Tampa, White set five-year lows in targets (62), touches (84), yards from scrimmage (496) and touchdowns (three). White benefits from the team moving on from Cam Newton as it should translate into fewer QB rush attempts and more running back targets.

Rhamondre Stevenson: Stevenson's strong play -- 30/216/5 rushing in three preseason games -- was one factor the Patriots were comfortable parting ways with Sony Michel. Even so, the fourth-round rookie out of Oklahoma will likely need an injury to either Harris and/or White to be a factor in fantasy this season.

WIDE RECEIVERS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Jakobi Meyers64.9794.13.91.25.40.02135.92
Nelson Agholor50.8697.44000119.14
Kendrick Bourne36.7462.22.600080.17
N'Keal Harry27.9329.82.30.95.40.0261.39
Gunner Olszewski2.833.60.21.46.40.036.78

Jakobi Meyers: Meyers led the Patriots with 81 targets, 59 receptions and 729 yards in 2020. While the team added Nelson Agholor and Kendall Bourne in free agency, there's a good chance that the Meyers leads the position group in receiving once again.

Nelson Agholor: Agholor set a career high in receiving yards (896) and tied a career high in touchdowns (eight) in his lone season in Las Vegas. While I expect Meyers to continue to perform as the team's WR1, it wouldn't surprise me if Agholor came close to duplicating his 2020 numbers.

TIGHT ENDS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Jonnu Smith47.1554.63.83.529.80.18105.87
Hunter Henry47.6529.43.600098.34
Devin Asiasi4.750.40.40009.79

Jonnu Smith: One year after investing a pair of Day 2 picks at the position, the Patriots double-dipped in the free-agent tight end market with Smith and Hunter Henry. Smith scored more touchdowns in 2020 (nine including a rushing score) than he did in his first three NFL seasons combined (eight). And while he set career highs in targets (65), receptions (41) and receiving yards (448), Smith likely frustrated his fantasy managers as he was held to 20 receiving yards or less in more than half of his games last season.

Hunter Henry: Missing multiple games in four consecutive seasons including all of 2018, Henry had 60 catches on 93 targets, both of which were career highs, for 613 yards and four touchdowns in 2020. Unfortunately for both Smith and Henry, however, their individual upside may cancel each other out.

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Wednesday, August 4, 2021

Fantasy Football Projections 2021: New England Patriots

Our 2021 Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2021 fantasy football projections for the New England Patriots.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDPoints
Cam Newton325.7209.1234513.197.8279.6342.35.17196.17
Mac Jones217.1141.115749.344.8822.469.40.56100.86

Cam Newton: Newton struggled as a passer and many reasons -- return from injury, new team with unusual offseason, lack of pass-catching talent, etc. -- attributed to his woeful passing numbers. Even though 33 quarterbacks threw more touchdowns than Newton (eight) and he threw more interceptions (10) than touchdowns, he also scored the 16th-most fantasy points as he rushed for 12 touchdowns.

Likely to run for fewer scores and throw for more, Newton has improved weapons in the passing game. If he struggles, however, it's possible that the Patriots make a (permanent) midseason switch to first-round pick Mac Jones.

Mac Jones: While it would be unfair to compare any quarterback to Tom Brady, Jones (like Brady) makes up for a lack of elite arm strength and mobility with quick processing ability and accuracy. It would be reasonable to assume that Jones makes some starts during the season even if he doesn't win the job outright to begin the season.

RUNNING BACKS

PlayerAtt.YardsTDRec.YardsTDPoints
Damien Harris214984.45.3514107.80.5151.32
James White42.3158.60.9551.7440.92.6107.1
Sony Michel87.1374.52.187490.260.13
Rhamondre Stevenson41.1178.80.825.341.10.230.76
J.J. Taylor2.5110.041.49.803.02
Brandon Bolden1.25.20.041.27.802.14

Damien Harris: Harris is a non-factor as a receiver (five receptions in 2020) and that likely won't change much with James White returning to Foxboro. The other major obstacle to Harris being a top-24 option is the presence of Cam Newton, who rushed for six times as many touchdowns as Harris (12 to two) in 2020. As long as Newton holds off Mac Jones as the starter, there is the chance/likelihood that he vultures goal-line opportunities from Harris.

James White: With Tom Brady in Tampa, White set five-year lows in targets (62), touches (84), yards from scrimmage (496) and touchdowns (three). White would likely benefit from a quarterback shift from Newton to Jones as it would likely translate into more running back targets and fewer QB rush attempts.

WIDE RECEIVERS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Jakobi Meyers58.7703.53.41.25.40.02120.76
Nelson Agholor47.3634.93.5000108.14
Kendrick Bourne35.9448.72.500077.82
N'Keal Harry33.6393.92.6160.0272.51
Gunner Olszewski2.629.40.21.56.90.036.31

Jakobi Meyers: Meyers led the Patriots with 81 targets, 59 receptions and 729 yards in 2020. While the team added Nelson Agholor and Kendall Bourne in free agency, there's a good chance that the Meyers leads the position group in receiving once again.

Nelson Agholor: Agholor set a career high in receiving yards (896) and tied a career high in touchdowns (eight) in his lone season in Las Vegas. While I expect Meyers to continue to perform as the team's WR1, it wouldn't surprise me if Agholor duplicated his 2020 numbers.

TIGHT ENDS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Jonnu Smith41.3495.83.23.731.50.1993.72
Hunter Henry43.24823.100088.4
Devin Asiasi4.4470.40009.3
Dalton Keene2.627.40.20005.24

Jonnu Smith: One year after investing a pair of Day 2 picks at the position, the Patriots double-dipped in the free-agent tight end market with Smith and Hunter Henry. Smith scored more touchdowns in 2020 (nine including a rushing score) than he did in his first three NFL seasons combined (eight). And while he set career highs in targets (65), receptions (41) and receiving yards (448), Smith likely frustrated his fantasy managers as he was held to 20 receiving yards or less in more than half of his games last season.

Hunter Henry: Missing multiple games in four consecutive seasons including all of 2018, Henry had 60 catches on 93 targets, both of which were career highs, for 613 yards and four touchdowns in 2020. Unfortunately for both Smith and Henry, however, their individual upside may cancel each other out.

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