Patrick Mahomes: Outside of his one-game rookie season, Mahomes set or tied career lows in passing yards (3,928) and touchdowns (26). Like Joe Burrow, Mahomes has enough mobility to make and extend plays, but he doesn't use it to rack up significant rushing production (307-389 rushing yards in five consecutive seasons). After finishing as a top-four fantasy quarterback in four of his first five seasons as a starter, Mahomes has finished as the QB8 and QB12, respectively, over the past two seasons. The talented trio of Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown (when healthy and active) provide hope for Mahomes to return to his previous levels of elite production.
Justin Fields: The same year (2022) that Fields threw for 2,242 yards, 17 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, he finished as fantasy's QB6 in points per game and overall. Of course, it was the elite rushing production (160/1143/8) that outweighed his anemic passing stats that year. Even before the Steelers benched him in favor of Russell Wilson in 2024, Fields was the QB6 in fantasy points per game through his six starts.
C.J. Stroud: What a difference a year made, as Stroud finished his 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign as fantasy's QB8 in points per game and as the QB26 in 2024. The coaching staff did him no favors and Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell ended the year on IR with Nico Collins also missing five games in 2024. With the additions of Christian Kirk in free agency and Iowa State rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel in the draft and a new offensive coaching staff in place, there is some optimism for Stroud to rebound in 2025 although the offensive line remains an issue.
Joe Burrow: Burrow, now a two-time NFL Comeback Player of the Year, had an MVP-caliber season in 2024. (Of course, so did Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.) In any event, Burrow led the NFL in both passing yards (4,918) and touchdowns (43). With Cincinnati doling out massive contracts to both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins this offseason, it's all systems go for Burrow and the Bengals offense, who will often find themselves needing to keep up with their leaky defense.
While nobody is right 100% of the time, the Vegas sportsbooks are right more often than they are wrong.
A helpful tool to determine which players to roster or start (or at least to break a tie), especially in daily fantasy football leagues, is NFL implied totals (projected point totals for each team based on NFL odds).
Looking at the over-under alone is not enough. Although it's an obvious statement, the more points a team scores (or is expected to score), the more likely that fantasy points will follow.
NFL implied totals listed in the table below are calculated using NFL odds from FanDuel Sportsbook for Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season and sorted from most to least projected points.
Patrick Mahomes: Outside of his one-game rookie season, Mahomes set or tied career lows in passing yards (3,928) and touchdowns (26). Like Joe Burrow, Mahomes has enough mobility to make and extend plays, but he doesn't use it to rack up significant rushing production (307-389 rushing yards in five consecutive seasons). After finishing as a top-four fantasy quarterback in four of his first five seasons as a starter, Mahomes has finished as the QB8 and QB12, respectively, over the past two seasons. The talented trio of Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown (when healthy and active) provide hope for Mahomes to return to his previous levels of elite production.
Russell Wilson: Playing for his fourth team in five seasons, Wilson is the favorite to enter the season as the starter but unlikely to maintain that role all year. Wilson took over for Justin Fields as Pittsburgh's starter in Week 7, and he performed as fantasy's QB18 on a per-game basis among QBs with at least six appearances during that stretch. Given the Giants used a first-round pick on Dart and the team's low expectations, it would make sense to give Dart an opportunity to gain valuable game experience sooner than later.
Jaxson Dart: Even if Wilson starts more games than Dart, it's likely that the first-rounder gets some starts, especially during the most crucial time of the fantasy season. Both Wilson and Dart are off the fantasy radar in standard single-QB leagues, but the rookie has the ability to make plays with his legs and provide some fantasy upside once he gets his shot.
Patrick Mahomes: Despite losing Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins, Mahomes didn't miss a beat and won his second NFL MVP award in 2022. He threw for 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns, both of which led the NFL last season. While he doesn't have as much rushing upside as Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts, he has more than 300 rushing yards in three consecutive seasons and multiple rushing scores in five consecutive seasons.
Isiah Pacheco: Pacheco generated some buzz last August as a seventh-round rookie, and then he delivered for fantasy managers who drafted the sleeper. He finished his inaugural season with 170 carries for 830 yards (4.9 YPC) and five touchdowns and added 13 catches for 130 yards (10.0 Y/R). Sitting atop the 2023 depth chart, Pacheco has a chance to improve upon his rookie numbers.
Jerick McKinnon: McKinnon had nearly as many targets (71) as carries (72) last season, and he was extremely effective as a receiver. He ended the year with 56 catches for 512 yards (9.1 Y/R) and nine of his 10 touchdowns were receiving scores. While I have projected McKinnon for considerably fewer touchdowns in 2023, he could be a solid bye-week fill-in for fantasy squads, at a minimum.
Skyy Moore: Marquez Valdez-Scantling will have some spike weeks, but good luck predicting when those will occur, which make him a better option in best ball formats. Meanwhile, the variance of potential outcomes for Kadarius Toney may make fantasy managers hesitant on draft day. While he had a quiet rookie season (22/250/0 on 33 targets), Moore has emerged as the most likely candidate to lead Kansas City's receiving corps in fantasy production.
Kadarius Toney: The range of potential outcomes is wide enough that you may have seen Toney appear on both breakout and bust lists at some point heading into the 2023 season. Earlier this offseason, offensive coordinator Matt Nagy talked up Toney, who many had figured would step into the WR1 role vacated by JuJu Smith-Schuster. If he can (get and) stay healthy, it's certainly possible that he earns the second-most targets on the team behind Travis Kelce although it seems even more likely that it's someone else (e.g., Skyy Moore).
Rashee Rice: Even though though Skyy Moore had a limited role as a receiver in his rookie season, the draft capital used (55th overall pick) and strong preseason makes Rice worth being a target later in drafts. That said, his ADP has continued to rise.
Travis Kelce: While age (turns 34 in October) is still a potential concern, he's shown no signs of slowing down after posting his seventh consecutive 1,000-yard season. Without Tyreek Hill, he posted either his best or second-best numbers across the board — 152 targets, 110 receptions, 1,338 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Absolutely dominant compared to other tight ends, Kelce (15.4) averaged more than double the half-PPR fantasy points per game than the last TE1 (Dalton Schultz, TE12, 7.6 PPG). In fact, if Kelce were a wide receiver, he'd rank ahead of all but five wide receivers in fantasy PPG last season.
Some teams have already played their final preseason game and as the NFL preseason winds down, we are that much closer to the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football.
That also means that we are in the thick of fantasy draft season.
To help you prepare for your fantasy football drafts, we will continue to keep our fantasy football rankings updated until the start of the 2023 NFL season.
Fantasy managers know exactly what they're getting when they draft Allen, who has finished as fantasy's QB1, QB1 and QB2 over the past three seasons, respectively. Few quarterbacks have as much weekly upside and consistency as Allen. Last season, he finished as a top-six weekly QB in 12 of 16 games played and finished as a top-12 weekly quarterback in two more games.
Hurts set career bests in passing — 66.5% completion, 8.0 Y/A, 4.8 TD%, 1.2 INT%, and 101.5 passer rating — in 2022. Despite his improvement as a passer, aided by the trade for A.J. Brown last offseason, it's especially the rushing production that makes him an elite fantasy quarterback. Over the past two seasons (30 games), the former Oklahoma (and Alabama) quarterback has rushed 304 times for 1,544 yards and 23 touchdowns. That's an equivalent to 9.75 fantasy points per game (from his rushing stats alone).
Despite losing Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins, Mahomes didn't miss a beat and won his second NFL MVP award in 2022. He threw for 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns, both of which led the NFL last season. While he doesn't have as much rushing upside as Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts, he has more than 300 rushing yards in three consecutive seasons and multiple rushing scores in five consecutive seasons.
There is only one quarterback in NFL history with 25-plus passing touchdowns and 1,000-plus rushing yards in the same season, and that quarterback (Jackson) has done it twice. Of course, the biggest concern with Jackson is durability and the fact that he has missed five games in each of the past two seasons. With the Ravens bolstering their receiving corps by signing Odell Beckham Jr. and drafting Zay Flowers in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft and hiring Todd Monken to run the offense, the dual-threat quarterback has legitimate QB1 (overall) upside if he's able to stay healthy for a full season.
Making improvements as a passer in his second season, Fields also made in-season strides highlighted by the following splits:
Games 1-7: 55.9% completion, five TDs and six INTs
Games 8-15: 63.7% completion, 12 TDs and five INTs
More improvement as a passer should be expected for his third season, but Fields has as much rushing upside as any quarterback in the NFL. He led the NFL in yards per carry (7.1) and ended the season with 1,143 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. Only six running backs rushed for more yards in 2022. Over his final 10 games, Fields was even more dominant as a runner with a per-game rushing line of 11.8/94.9/0.7 (8.04 YPC). In his final 10 games played, Fields finished as a top-10 weekly quarterback nine times, a top-five performer five times and the overall weekly QB1 twice.
Does any team have as talented of a trio as the Bengals do with Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd? Burrow's rookie season (2020) ended prematurely after sustaining a torn ACL, but he has a 69.3% completion rate, 69 touchdowns (6.1 TD%) and 8.1 yards per attempt average over the past two years. It's unlikely for the Bengals to play Burrow in the preseason as he recovers from his strained calf, but NFL Network's Mike Garafolo notes that "it doesn't sound as if Week 1 is in jeopardy right now."
Through three seasons, Herbert has averaged a 17-game pace of 4,696 yards, 31.3 touchdowns and 11.7 interceptions with another 237 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Through three seasons, he has finished as fantasy's QB9, QB2 and QB11, respectively. First-round rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnston adds a vertical weapon to this offense, and a new offensive scheme that encourages more shots down the field should boost Herbert's upside. Of the 36 quarterbacks with a minimum of 200 dropbacks in 2022, Herbert ranked 34th in ADOT, per PFF.
What a difference a year (and a new coaching staff) made for Lawrence! The 2021 NFL Draft's top overall pick completed 66.3% of his pass attempts for 7.0 yards per attempt, while throwing 25 touchdowns and only seven interceptions in 2022. (That compares to 59.6%, 6.0 Y/A and 12:17 TD-INT ratio in 2021.) In fact, Lawrence improved considerably as the season progressed — 69.7% completion rate, 7.4 Y/A and a 15-to-two TD-INT ratio from Weeks 9-18. Bigger things could/should be in store for Lawrence in 2023, as Calvin Ridley joins Christian Kirk, coming off career numbers (84/1108/8 in 2022), Evan Engram, and Travis Etienne.
Appearing in only six games over the past two seasons, Watson started slow (under 13 fantasy points in three of his first four games) but closed 2022 with two solid performances — 21.9 (weekly QB8) and 19.6 (QB6), respectively. Given his dual-threat skill set, he has upside for a quarterback drafted as a back-end QB1.
Prescott missed five games after getting injured in the season opener. From Week 7 (when he returned from injury) through the end of the season, Prescott was fantasy's QB6 — QB7 on a PPG basis. Even without Dalton Schultz as a security blanket, Prescott's overall weapons are improved with a better WR2 (Brandin Cooks). In addition, Michael Gallup should be better, now that he's another year removed from his ACL tear.
Vastly outperforming his 2022 ADP, Smith led the NFL in completion percentage (69.8%) while throwing for 4,282 yards, 30 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. A repeat top-five fantasy finish may be unlikely, but Smith is a viable QB1 type, especially with the Seahawks drafting Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round to complement their dynamic duo of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. So, in other words, he's undervalued compared his ADP once again.
Underrated as a runner, Jones had 120 carries for 720 yards and seven touchdowns last season after racking up 172/1,000/5 (5.8 YPC) rushing in his first three seasons (2019-21). The Giants have added several new pass catchers to the roster, which should help improve his anemic passing numbers (3.2 TD% and 6.8 Y/A in 2022). Jones, who finished as fantasy's QB9 in 2022, should be drafted as a fringe QB1.
Indianapolis was arguably the ideal landing spot for Richardson. After all, new coach Shane Steichen tailored Philadelphia's offense to best suit the skill set of Jalen Hurts. Ups and downs should be expected for Richardson, but his elite athletic profile gives him enormous rushing upside from the start.
Reunited with his former Washington offensive coordinator, Cousins finished as fantasy's QB7 with Kevin O'Connell in his first year as his head coach. That said, Cousins was 11th on a points-per-game basis (among QBs that played at least half the year) as the veteran quarterback set multi-year lows in completion percentage (65.9%), TD% (4.5), yards per attempt (7.1) and passer rating (92.5) in 2022. With the Vikings using a first-round pick on Jordan Addison to complement Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson, Cousins remains a steady back-end QB1 type heading into 2023.
Tagovailoa sustained multiple concussions, causing him to miss five games (counting a playoff loss) in 2022, and he even considered retiring after last season. When healthy, however, he posted career numbers and led the NFL in TD% (6.3), Y/A (8.9) and passer rating (105.5). Excluding the games he missed or left early (Weeks 4-6 and 17-18), Tagovailoa scored the seventh-most fantasy points over that span. Of course, durability and the potential for missed time factors into his 2023 outlook, but there is plenty of optimism if his health cooperates.
After winning back-to-back NFL MVP awards in 2020 and 2021, Rodgers numbers (without Davante Adams) were well below his career averages across the board in 2022 — 64.6% (65.3% career average), 4.8 TD% (6.2%), 2.2 INT% (1.4%), 6.8 Y/A (7.7) and 91.1 passer rating (103.6). Regardless of how long the next era of his career lasts, Rodgers joins a Jets team that has a better supporting cast than he had last year in Green Bay.
Wilson's debut season with the Broncos was a flop. He set career lows in completion percentage (60.5%), TDs/TD% (16, 3.3%) and passer rating (84.4). From Weeks 1 to 13, Wilson had only one top-12 weekly performance (Week 4), but he exceeded 24 fantasy points in three of his final four games in 2022. Transitioning to Sean Payton's offense improves optimism about Wilson's 2023 outlook (just ask Payton himself), but he should still be drafted as a fantasy QB2.
The Lions finished top five in the NFL in both scoring and total offense in 2022, and Goff was much better in his second season with the Lions than he was in his first. Throwing for 4,438 yards, 29 touchdowns and only seven interceptions, Goff finished as fantasy's QB10. Perhaps he'll push for a second consecutive top-12 campaign and he benefits from playing behind one of the league's better offensive lines and with a talented group of pass catchers, but he's better drafted as a QB2.
The Steelers went 7-5 in Pickett's starts, but he threw more interceptions (nine, 2.3%) than touchdowns (seven, 1.8%) in 2022. That said, eight of his nine interceptions were thrown in his first five games. Pickett had zero multiple touchdown games and only one 300-yard passing game (Week 5, 52-attempt 38-3 loss to the Bills in his first-ever start). Some breakout potential exists if he continues to build upon his late-season improvements in efficiency, but how much will the Steelers open up the offense?
There were concerns with Stafford and his elbow heading into the 2022 season, and the veteran quarterback managed to appear in only nine games due to a spinal cord contusion. Stafford threw 10 touchdowns (3.3 TD%, his lowest since 2012) and eight interceptions and averaged 6.9 yards per attempt (lowest since 2018) with an 87.4 passer rating (lowest since 2014). Stafford is in a better place to start training camp this year, saying that he "feel(s) a lot better physically." If he can stay healthy in 2023, how close will he be to the 2021 version who led the Rams to the Super Bowl and finished as a top-five fantasy quarterback?
Both Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers created (what many would describe as unnecessary) drama towards the tail end of their Packer tenures, but they also provided the franchise with tremendous stability at the position for three decades. Packers coach Matt LaFleur has talked up Love's "complete command" of Green Bay's offense, but growing pains should be expected as the franchise transitions to its next era. The team loaded up on several Day 2 pass catchers (Luke Musgrave, Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, etc.) in the draft to help support his growth.
Mr. Irrelevant is the term given to the final pick of each NFL draft, but Purdy, the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, was anything but irrelevant in his rookie season. From December through his final snap of the playoffs, Purdy completed 151-of-224 pass attempts (67.4%) for 1,877 yards (8.38 Y/A), 16 touchdowns (7.1%) and only three interceptions (1.3%). Firmly entrenched as the starter going into 2023, there appear to be no lingering concerns following his offseason UCL surgery.
Tannehill missed five games in 2022 and averaged fewer than 14 fantasy points per game for the season. Even though he was a fringe top-12 weekly quarterback in five of 12 games, he had only one 20-point performance (20.02, Week 11) all season. If the team (or Tannehill) struggles, it wouldn't be a surprise if the Titans transitioned to second-round pick Will Levis at some point during the season. If not, he may be undervalued for those in 2-QB or super flex formats.
Slipping to the fifth round of the 2022 NFL Draft, Howell started the season finale and enters 2023 as Washington's starter. Howell completed only 11-of-19 pass attempts for 169 yards (8.9 Y/A), a touchdown and an interception in his lone start, and he also ran for 35 yards and a touchdown on five carries. With a talented receiving corps, a new offensive coordinator and some mobility, Howell has a chance to deliver better-than-expected results in 2023. If Howell struggles at all, however, it wouldn't be suprising to see Jacoby Brissett make starts.
Carr was fantasy's QB15 through Week 16 before being benched in Week 17 by Josh McDaniels last year. Now in New Orleans, Carr improves the outlook for the team's pass catchers (as an upgrade over Andy Dalton), but he remains a solid QB2 in fantasy football. Since 2014, he has finished in the QB13-QB20 range every year except 2016 (QB10).
It was no surprise that the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft was named the Week 1 starter early in the process. While ups and downs should be expected for any rookie, Young is always composed, processes information quickly and thrives when extending and making plays outside of structure.
Replacing Derek Carr with Jimmy Garoppolo is a lateral move, at best, for the Raiders and the offense's outlook overall. From a fantasy perspective, Jimmy G. offers no upside as a runner and is a middling QB2, at best.
Stroud has consistently earned praise from his coaches and teammates throughout the offseason, even though he hasn't officially been named as the Week 1 starter against the Baltimore Ravens. An accurate passer when given time in the pocket at Ohio State, Stroud consistently made plays outside of structure against the Georgia Bulldogs in the College Football Playoff. He's off the fantasy radar in single-QB redraft leagues, but he should increase the overall efficiency of Houston's offense in 2023.
Jones missed some time in 2022, so his counting stats were down, but so were his efficiency numbers — 65.2% completion rate (67.6% in 2021), 3.2 TD% (4.2%), 6.8 Y/A (7.3) and 84.8 passer rating (92.5). Things should be better (than last year) with Bill O'Brien taking over the offense, but Jones' upside is relatively limited. Jones isn't draftable outside of two-QB or super flex leagues.
After Tom Brady's (second) retirement, the Bucs find themselves in the unenviable position of having to choose between Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask. Even though Tampa hasn't officially named their starter, it's more likely going to be Mayfield, who is on his fourth team in the past 18 months. Mayfield completed only 60% of his pass attempts in 2022 for 2,163 yards (6.5 Y/A), 10 touchdowns and eight interceptions over 12 games.
Patrick Mahomes: Despite losing Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins, Mahomes didn't miss a beat and won his second NFL MVP award in 2022. He threw for 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns, both of which led the NFL last season. While he doesn't have as much rushing upside as Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts, he has more than 300 rushing yards in three consecutive seasons and multiple rushing scores in five consecutive seasons.
Isiah Pacheco: Pacheco generated some buzz last August as a seventh-round rookie, and then he delivered for fantasy managers who drafted the sleeper. He finished his inaugural season with 170 carries for 830 yards (4.9 YPC) and five touchdowns and added 13 catches for 130 yards (10.0 Y/R). Pacheco enters 2023 atop the depth chart and he'll have a chance to improve upon his rookie numbers, but there are reports that the Chiefs could be interested in Josh Jacobs if the Raiders rescind their franchise tag. In addition, Pacheco (shoulder) is still not cleared for contact.
Jerick McKinnon: McKinnon had nearly as many targets (71) as carries (72) last season, and he was extremely effective as a receiver. He ended the year with 56 catches for 512 yards (9.1 Y/R) and nine of his 10 touchdowns were receiving scores. While I have projected McKinnon for considerably fewer touchdowns in 2023, he should be a solid bye-week fill-in for fantasy squads, at a minimum.
Kadarius Toney: With JuJu Smith-Schuster no longer on the roster, Toney is the favorite to earn the largest share of non-Travis Kelce targets. Offensive coordinator Matt Nagy has talked up Toney, who has plenty of upside if he can both stay (after he gets) healthy and reach his full potential as the WR1 in this offense. Toney is a player who you may see on plenty of preseason breakout (and maybe even some bust) lists going into your draft(s).
Skyy Moore: Marquez Valdez-Scantling will have some big games, but good luck predicting when those will occur (outside of best ball formats). Given the variance of potential outcomes with Toney, taking a late-round shot on someone like Moore (KC's 2022 second-round pick) and/or Rashee Rice (KC's 2023 second-round pick) is a decent strategy to get more exposure to Kansas City's high-powered offense.
Travis Kelce: While age (turns 34 in October) is still a potential concern, he's shown no signs of slowing down after posting his seventh consecutive 1,000-yard season. Without Tyreek Hill, he posted either his best or second-best numbers across the board — 152 targets, 110 receptions, 1,338 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Absolutely dominant compared to other tight ends, Kelce (15.4) averaged more than double the half-PPR fantasy points per game than the last TE1 (Dalton Schultz, TE12, 7.6 PPG). In fact, if Kelce were a wide receiver, he'd rank ahead of all but five wide receivers in fantasy PPG last season.
Patrick Mahomes: Despite losing Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins, Mahomes won his second NFL MVP award in 2022. He threw for 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns, both of which led the NFL last season. While he doesn't have as much rushing upside as Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts, he has more than 300 rushing yards in three consecutive seasons and multiple rushing scores in five consecutive seasons.
Isiah Pacheco: Pacheco generated some buzz last August as a seventh-round rookie, and he delivered for fantasy managers who drafted him. He finished his inaugural season with 170 carries for 830 yards (4.9 YPC) and five touchdowns and added 13 catches for 130 yards (10.0 Y/R). Pacheco enters 2023 atop the depth chart and he'll have a chance to improve upon his rookie numbers.
Jerick McKinnon: McKinnon had nearly as many targets (71) as carries (72) last season, and he was extremely effective as a receiver. He ended the year with 56 catches for 512 yards (9.1 Y/R) and nine of his 10 touchdowns were receiving scores.
Kadarius Toney: With JuJu Smith-Schuster no longer on the roster, Toney will compete with Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore and rookie Rashee Rice for non-Travis Kelce targets. Offensive coordinator Matt Nagy recently said now that Toney has learned the ins and outs of the Chiefs offense after a midseason trade in 2022, "it's exciting now for us to be able to take that to Year 2 and build that relationship with Pat (Mahomes). He's super talented with the football in his hands, and he's been that way his entire life in his football career." Toney will be a popular name on breakout lists in 2023.
Travis Kelce: While age (turns 34 in October) is still a potential concern, he's shown no signs of slowing down after posting his seventh consecutive 1,000-yard season. Without Tyreek Hill, he posted either his best or second-best numbers across the board — 152 targets, 110 receptions, 1,338 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Absolutely dominant compared to other tight ends, Kelce (15.4) averaged more than double the half-PPR fantasy points per game than the last TE1 (Dalton Schultz, TE12, 7.6 PPG). In fact, if Kelce were a wide receiver, he'd rank ahead of all but five wide receivers in fantasy PPG last season.
Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes has been a top-four fantasy quarterback lock, when healthy. During his four seasons as a starter, he has finished as fantasy's QB1, QB7 (missed multiple games), QB4 and QB4, respectively. In four seasons as a starter, Mahomes has a 6.5 TD%, 1.6 INT% and 8.1 Y/A with a 17-game pace of 5,129 passing yards and 41.4 touchdowns. Losing Tyreek Hill will have an impact, but Mahomes should remain a top-four option.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Through two seasons, Edwards-Helaire has missed a total of 10 games including seven last season. The Chiefs signed Ronald Jones II this offseason and re-signed Jerick McKinnon, who handled double-digit carries in all three of the team's playoff games this past season. While the presence of RoJo and McKinnon may frustrate those that roster CEH, his ADP provides a reasonable draft-day cost to get exposure to the top back of one of the league's most potent offenses.
Ronald Jones: Jones' numbers in 2021 were (more than) halved from the prior season. Last season, Jones had only 111 touches for 492 scrimmage yards and eight touchdowns. Perhaps a change of scenery will serve him well, but he'll be competing with (and appears to be behind) Edwards-Helaire and McKinnon for snaps.
JuJu Smith-Schuster: Smith-Schuster missed 12 games last season and he's only averaged 8.6 and 6.2 yards per reception and target, respectively, over the past two seasons combined. While there's little chance that he posts a line similar to his sophomore campaign (111/1,426/7, 2018), he has an excellent chance to bounce back as the WR1 in Kansas City's high-powered offense.
Skyy Moore: Moore had a 95/1,292/10 line and PFF credited Moore with 26 broken tackles after the catch, which led FBS wide receivers. The former WMU Bronco should earn a more prominent role as the season progresses.
Mecole Hardman: Hardman set career highs in targets (83), receptions (59) and yards (693) last season, but he also set career lows in touchdowns (two) and Y/R (11.7). The speedy former second-round pick has an opportunity to build upon those numbers with Tyreek Hill in Miami, but he'll be competing with newcomers Smith-Schuster, Moore and Marquez Valdes-Scantling for targets.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling: A boom-or-bust type deep threat, Valdes-Scantling exceeded 20 receiving yards in fewer games (five) than he didn't (six games) in 2021. MVS's history of up-and-down performances is unlikely to change, which makes him a better option in best ball formats than regular season-long re-draft leagues.
Travis Kelce: In a down year, Kelce finished with 92 catches for 1,125 yards and nine touchdowns. The 32-year-old tight end now has six consecutive 1,000-yard seasons with more than 90 catches in four straight. He's been either TE1 or TE2 for six consecutive seasons and he may even see a bump in target share with Tyreek Hill now in South Florida.
