Showing posts with label Lamar Miller. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lamar Miller. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 11, 2020

New England Patriots 2020 Fantasy Football Projections

In addition to viewing our 2020 Fantasy Football Projections by position, we will post our preseason projections per team.

Below you will find our 2020 fantasy football projections for the New England Patriots.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for all 32 NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS


PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDPoints
Cam Newton482.1290.53254.221.2111.5760.5278.32.72236.02
While not guaranteed to be the starter, it'd logical to expect the one-time league MVP to win the competition for the starting gig. Newton played only two games in 2019, but he offers plenty of upside if he's healthy and becomes the starter. In his first eight NFL seasons, Newton performed as a top-four fantasy quarterback five times.
Jarrett Stidham111.270.6739.54.612.55.520.90.1145.77
With the Patriots signing Newton, beat reporters haven't ruled out Stidham still beating out his fellow Auburn alum. Even if he wins the quarterback competition this offseason, Stidham won't be much more than a QB streamer in his first season as an NFL starter.

RUNNING BACKS


PlayerAtt.YardsTDRec.YardsTDPoints
James White67.12651.6859.4519.84.01112.62
Perennially undervalued in fantasy drafts, it was White, not Sony Michel, that has led the Patriots running backs in fantasy scoring in both of Michel's first two seasons. One of the league's best pass-catching backs, White has more than 70 catches in back-to-back seasons and that trend should continue in 2020.
Sony Michel143557.73.585.4410.1682.31
The last time the Patriots finished outside the top 12 in both scoring and total offense was when Michel was eight years old (2003). With Tom Brady now in Tampa, perhaps the Patriots rely more heavily on the ground game, but Michel's lack of involvement as a receiver make him a TD-or-bust weekly option. Ending the year as the RB28 in half-PPR formats, Michel finished as a weekly top-18 back only twice last year. In addition, Michel, who had May foot surgery, was placed on the active/PUP list and isn't a lock to be ready for Week 1, especially with the Pats signing Lamar Miller as insurance.
Rex Burkhead74.8306.72.2416.6146.10.8763.94
Burkhead averaged a little more than seven touches (7.08) per game and 44.7 scrimmage yards per game last season. When the backfield is at full strength, Burkhead's 2020 usage rate is unlikely to exceed his 2019 rate.
Lamar Miller35.2149.60.886.749.20.2326.54
At a minimum, Miller, who missed all of 2019 with a torn ACL, provides insurance for Michel (foot), who may not be ready for Week 1. More than likely, however, it just adds more uncertainty to a backfield that is often difficult to project.
Damien Harris44171.60.881.914.30.0624.23
A third-round pick in 2019, Harris managed only four carries for 12 yards in two games last season. Even if Michel starts the season on the PUP list (and misses at least the first six games), Harris does not have a ton of upside in New England's crowded backfield.

MORE: New England Patriots 53-man roster projection

WIDE RECEIVERS


PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Julian Edelman86.7949.44.775.531.90.06127.11
Extremely consistent since becoming a prominent part of the Patriots offense in 2013, Edelman had 100 catches for 1,117 yards and six touchdowns on 153 targets last season. It was the third time that Edelman has played a full 16-game slate over that span and the veteran slot receiver has a minimum of 150 targets, 98 catches and 1,056 yards in each of those three seasons. With Tom Brady now in Tampa, however, it's likely that Edelman fails to repeat those numbers even if he manages to play all 16 games in his age-34 season.
N'Keal Harry46.4607.83.944.4330.0487.96
Harry spent the first half of the year on IR and managed just 12/105/2 receiving over seven regular-season games to close the season. The 2019 first-round pick will obviously improve upon his rookie numbers, but it's unclear how quickly he will be able to develop a strong rapport with either the unproven Jarrett Stidham or newcomer Cam Newton.
Mohamed Sanu49526.83.6800074.76
Jakobi Meyers24.1307.31.5700040.15
Damiere Byrd14.2159.81.0700022.4
Gunner Olszewski1.617.60.10002.36

TIGHT ENDS


PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Devin Asiasi28.9329.52.5300048.13
With Matt LaCosse deciding to opt out of the 2020 season, the Patriots have expressed some interest in free agent Delanie Walker. And while rookie tight ends tend to struggle to make a significant impact in their first seasons, both Asiasi and fellow rookie Dalton Keene currently sit atop the depth chart at the position.
Dalton Keene19.4217.31.6500031.63
Ryan Izzo5.658.20.460008.58

More New England Patriots pages:

More of our content:

Sunday, June 23, 2019

Houston Texans 2019 Fantasy Football Projections

In addition to viewing our 2019 Fantasy Football Projections by position, we will post our preseason projections per team.

Below you will find our 2019 fantasy football projections for the Houston Texans.

 

QUARTERBACKS

 

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDPoints
Deshaun Watson551.3369.44548.227.5712.481.8441.73.68333.66
Watson's TD% regressed to a more normal 5.1% (from 9.3% as a rookie), but Watson stayed healthy for a full season and finished as fantasy's QB4 in 2018. Watson threw for 4,165 yards and 26 touchdowns and added 551 rushing yards and five more scores on the ground. If both Will Fuller and Keke Coutee are able to stay healthy, Watson has one of the best trios of receivers at his disposal.
A.J. McCarron11.3776.80.40.232.31.20.014.39

More Fantasy Football QB Resources:

 

RUNNING BACKS

 

PlayerAtt.YardsTDRec.YardsTDPoints
Lamar Miller210.4925.85.2636.2260.61.45158.9
Miller was more efficient in 2018 (4.6 YPC) than he was in either of his first two seasons (4.0 in 2016 and 3.7 in 2017) in Houston. If D'Onta Foreman (Achilles) stays healthy, it's possible that Miller sees a year-over-year dip in workload even though he figures to enter the season as the 1 or 1(a) to Foreman's 1(b) or 2.
D'Onta Foreman149.6643.34.4915.8142.20.79110.23
Last year, I outgained Foreman by one rushing yard as the 235-pound back missed virtually all of 2018 and lost one yard on his seven carries. Feeling much better now, Foreman's battle to overtake Miller could be categorized more like a slight incline than an uphill battle.
Josh Ferguson11.744.50.184.227.30.048.5
Karan Higdon4.720.20.07214.20.044.1
Buddy Howell1.24.80.010000.54

More Fantasy Football RB Resources:

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

 

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
DeAndre Hopkins112.21570.810.38000219.36
Hopkins said that he was the "most banged up I've ever been playing football," but Hopkins set career highs in receptions (115) and yards (1,572) and scored 11 touchdowns. Despite not always having good quarterback play, which he has now with Deshaun Watson, Hopkins has at least 95 catches, 1,375 yards and 11 touchdowns in three of his past four seasons.
Will Fuller54.9845.56.592.311.50.05125.54
As the saying goes, the best ability is availability. Unavailable in more than half of the team's games, Fuller has played in just 14, 10 and seven games, respectively, in his first three NFL seasons. Playing in only 11 total games with Deshaun Watson, Fuller has 45 catches for 782 yards and 11 touchdowns in those 11 games. Extrapolating that per-game pace over 16 games, Fuller would have a stat line of 65/1,137/16.
Keke Coutee626823.11.260.0187.46
Playing in just seven regular-season and postseason games combined, Coutee ended his rookie season (11/110/1 on 14 targets) similar to how he started it (11/109 on 15 targets) -- both games against the Colts. If he stays healthy, Coutee could be poised for a breakout season.
DeAndre Carter14.6147.50.5800018.23
Vyncint Smith7.6106.40.7600015.2

More Fantasy Football WR Resources:

 

TIGHT ENDS

 

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Jordan Thomas28.1303.52.8100047.21
Kahale Warring20.7252.51.6600035.21
Jordan Akins20.5235.81.4400032.22
Darren Fells15160.51.800026.85

More Fantasy Football TE Resources:
More of our content:
Keep track of our updates: (1) follow us on Twitter and/or (2) LIKE us on Facebook.

Tuesday, August 21, 2018

2018 Fantasy Football Projections: Houston Texans

In addition to viewing our 2018 Fantasy Football Projections by position, we will post our preseason projections per team.

Below you will find our 2018 fantasy football projections for the Houston Texans.

Quarterbacks

 

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDFLPoints
Deshaun Watson478.4298.5380329.214.872.7450.73.53.5298.39
Offensive line woes and lack of experience did not slow Watson down as a rookie. Unfortunately, an ACL tear did. Before the injury, however, Watson finished with the most or second-most fantasy points in each of his final four games and eclipsed the 30-point mark in three of those four outings. Expectations are sky high entering season two and regression is inevitable, but he has legitimate QB1 upside if he can stay healthy for a full season.
Brandon Weeden36.423.72621.11.12.47.700.113.25
Joe Webb5.22.6300.20.27.146.20.10.17.37

More Fantasy Football QB Resources:

Running Backs

 

PlayerAtt.YardsTDRec.YardsTDFLPoints
Lamar Miller199.5827.95.434.6294.12.80.5160.4
Miller has two 1,000-yard seasons since 2014, but he was even less efficient in 2017 (career-low 3.7 YPC) than he was in 2016 (4.0). The Texans have one of the league's worst offensive lines (actually the worst if you go by PFF rankings) and the line won't be markedly better in 2018. On a positive note, Miller has shed a few pounds and entered training camp at his lowest weight since signing with Houston.
D'Onta Foreman124.5522.94.79.878.40.31.287.73
Foreman's rookie season was cut short due to an Achilles injury and he's starting training camp on the active/PUP list. Perhaps he'll avoid the reserve/PUP list, which would require him to miss a mininum of six games, but that at least remains a possibility at this point.
Alfred Blue54.62021.16.748.20.30.432.62
Jay Prosch1.94.80.14320.205.48
Tyler Ervin2.910.202.2110.10.51.72

More Fantasy Football RB Resources:

Wide Receivers

 

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDFLPoints
DeAndre Hopkins99.31400.18.40000.9188.61
Leading the NFL in receiving touchdowns (13) last season, Hopkins now has four seasons with 75-plus catches and three seasons with 1,200-plus yards through his age-25 season. With a league-high 174 targets last season, Hopkins had 35-percent target share in 10 of 15 games and double-digit targets 11 times. As the focal point of Houston's offense, he arguably has the highest floor among all receivers in the league.
Will Fuller52.9804.16.34.82301118.51
The Texans scored 30.71 (real) points per game with Deshaun Watson under center; only 13.67 without him. As you'd expect, the games that Fuller played with Watson were much better than those without him. Both were on the field together for just four games (admittedly, an incredibly small sample size), but Fuller scored seven touchdowns in those four games! Durability is a concern for both as Fuller has missed multiple games in both seasons and Watson is returning from a torn ACL, but there is plenty of upside for Fuller if both maintain good health in 2018.
Keke Coutee162401.60000.333
Racking up 93/1,429/10 for the Red Raiders last season, the fourth-round rookie had impressed Andre Johnson. That said, the rookie is dealing with a strained hamstring.
Bruce Ellington22250.81.32.412.501.231.73
Braxton Miller14.9122.20.74.819.200.317.74
Sammie Coates0.580.10000.11.2
DeAndrew White0.34.2000000.42

More Fantasy Football WR Resources:

Tight Ends

 

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDFLPoints
Ryan Griffin21.5227.91.40000.230.79
With C.J. Fiedorowicz retiring, the Texans drafted a pair of tight ends -- Jordan Akins and Jordan Thomas -- this year. That said, Griffin could get the most snaps at the position, but his upside is relatively limited.
Stephen Anderson17.7219.51.30000.129.55
Anderson played 15 games last season and set career highs with 25 receptions for 342 yards. Like Griffin, Anderson isn't fantasy-relevant in 12-team leagues. On a positive note, however, Houston's tight ends have the league's most favorable fantasy football strength of schedule. If one emerges early in the season, they could become worth a pickup.
Jordan Akins6.268.20.40000.19.02
Jordan Thomas1.616.80.10000.12.08

More Fantasy Football TE Resources:
Keep track of our updates: (1) follow us on Twitter, (2) LIKE us on Facebook and/or (3) add us to your Google+ circle.

Monday, July 30, 2018

2018 Fantasy Football Projections: Houston Texans

In addition to viewing our 2018 Fantasy Football Projections by position, we will post our preseason projections per team.

Below you will find our 2018 fantasy football projections for the Houston Texans.

Quarterbacks

 

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDFLPoints
Deshaun Watson473.2295.3376229.314.771.9445.83.53.5296.86
Offensive line woes and lack of experience did not slow Watson down as a rookie. Unfortunately, an ACL tear did. Before the injury, however, Watson finished with the most or second-most fantasy points in each of his final four games and eclipsed the 30-point mark in three of those four outings. Expectations are high entering season two, but he has legitimate QB1 upside for 2018 if he can stay healthy for a full season.
Brandon Weeden36.423.72621.11.12.37.400.113.22
Joe Webb10.45.2600.30.4745.50.10.18.5

More Fantasy Football QB Resources:

Running Backs

 

PlayerAtt.YardsTDRec.YardsTDFLPoints
Lamar Miller197.2818.45.334.6294.12.80.5158.85
Miller has two 1,000-yard seasons since 2014, but he was even less efficient in 2017 (career-low 3.7 YPC) than he was in 2016 (4.0). The Texans have one of the league's worst offensive lines (actually the worst if you go by PFF rankings) and the line won't be markedly better in 2018. On a positive note, Miller has shed a few pounds and entered training camp at his lowest weight since signing with Houston.
D'Onta Foreman120.6506.54.79.878.40.31.286.09
Foreman's rookie season was cut short due to an Achilles injury and he's starting training camp on the active/PUP list. Perhaps he'll avoid the reserve/PUP list, which would require him to miss a mininum of six games, that seems like a real possibility at this point.
Alfred Blue48.7180.216.748.20.30.429.84
Jay Prosch1.94.80.14320.205.48
Tyler Ervin2.89.802.2110.10.51.68

More Fantasy Football RB Resources:

Wide Receivers

 

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDFLPoints
DeAndre Hopkins99.61404.48.50000.9189.64
Leading the NFL in receiving touchdowns (13) last season, Hopkins now has four seasons with 75-plus catches and three seasons with 1,200-plus yards through his age-25 season. With a league-high 174 targets last season, Hopkins had 35-percent target share in 10 of 15 games and double-digit targets 11 times. As the focal point of Houston's offense, he arguably has the highest floor among all receivers in the league.
Will Fuller52.1765.96.34.622.101114.6
The Texans scored 30.71 (real) points per game with Deshaun Watson under center; only 13.67 without him. As you'd expect, the games that Fuller played with Watson were much better than those without him. Both were on the field together for just four games (admittedly, an incredibly small sample size), but Fuller scored seven touchdowns in those four games! Durability is a concern for both as Fuller has missed multiple games in both seasons and Watson is returning from a torn ACL, but there is plenty of upside for Fuller if both maintain good health in 2018.
Keke Coutee16.3244.51.60000.333.45
Racking up 93/1,429/10 for the Red Raiders last season, the fourth-round rookie has impressed Andre Johnson and has a chance to be the team's third-most productive receiver this season.
Bruce Ellington22250.81.32.31201.231.68
Braxton Miller14.6119.70.74.618.400.317.41
Sammie Coates1.320.80.20000.13.08
DeAndrew White0.34.2000000.42

More Fantasy Football WR Resources:

Tight Ends

 

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDFLPoints
Stephen Anderson18.7231.91.40000.131.39
Anderson played 15 games last season and set career highs with 25 receptions for 342 yards. With less than 20 yards in nine of those 15 games, Anderson has more upside than Ryan Griffin, but neither tight end is much more than a streaming option. On a positive note, Houston's tight ends have the league's most favorable fantasy football strength of schedule.
Ryan Griffin20.9221.51.40000.230.15
With C.J. Fiedorowicz retiring, the Texans drafted a pair of tight ends -- Jordan Akins and Jordan Thomas -- this year. That said, Griffin could get the most snaps at the position, but his upside is relatively limited.
Jordan Akins4.751.70.30000.16.77

More Fantasy Football TE Resources:
Keep track of our updates: (1) follow us on Twitter, (2) LIKE us on Facebook and/or (3) add us to your Google+ circle.

Thursday, July 19, 2018

2018 Fantasy Football Projections: Houston Texans

In addition to viewing our 2018 Fantasy Football Projections by position, we will post our preseason projections per team.

Below you will find our 2018 fantasy football projections for the Houston Texans.

Quarterbacks

 

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDFLPoints
Deshaun Watson471.4294.6379530.215.171.14553.33.5300.7
Offensive line woes and lack of experience did not slow Watson down as a rookie. Unfortunately, an ACL tear did. Before the injury, however, Watson finished with the most or second-most fantasy points in each of his final four games and eclipsed the 30-point mark in three of those four outings. Expectations are high entering season two, but he has legitimate QB1 upside for 2018 if he can stay healthy for a full season.
Brandon Weeden36.323.62611.11.12.37.400.113.18
Joe Webb10.45.2600.30.46.944.90.10.18.44

More Fantasy Football QB Resources:

Running Backs

 

PlayerAtt.YardsTDRec.YardsTDFLPoints
Lamar Miller185758.54.633.1281.42.60.5146.19
Miller has two 1,000-yard seasons since 2014, but he was even less efficient in 2017 (career-low 3.7 YPC) than he was in 2016 (4.0). The Texans have one of the league's worst offensive lines (actually the worst if you go by PFF rankings) and the line won't be markedly better in 2018.
D'Onta Foreman144.6607.35.810.5840.31.2103.33
Foreman's rookie season was cut short due to an Achilles injury. Assuming he's ready for the start of the season, which "remains up in the air" at this point, Foreman should at least form a committee with Lamar Miller and it's certainly possible that he handles the larger share of the split by season's end.
Alfred Blue33.5120.60.56.344.70.30.420.53
Jay Prosch1.84.50.14.435.20.205.77
Tyler Ervin2.89.802.2110.10.51.68

More Fantasy Football RB Resources:

Wide Receivers

 

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDFLPoints
DeAndre Hopkins1011424.18.60000.9192.21
Leading the NFL in receiving touchdowns (13) last season, Hopkins now has four seasons with 75-plus catches and three seasons with 1,200-plus yards through his age-25 season. With a league-high 174 targets last season, Hopkins had 35-percent target share in 10 of 15 games and double-digit targets 11 times. As the focal point of Houston's offense, he arguably has the highest floor among all receivers in the league. A model of consistency, Hopkins had 70-plus yards and/or a touchdown (plus) in all 15 games last year.
Will Fuller48.4711.55.84.622.101106.16
The Texans scored 30.71 (real) points per game with Deshaun Watson under center; only 13.67 without him. As you'd expect, the games that Fuller played with Watson were much better than those without him. Both were on the field together for just four games, but Fuller scored seven touchdowns in those four games! Durability is a concern for both as Fuller has missed multiple games in both seasons and Watson is returning from a torn ACL, but there is plenty of upside for Fuller if both maintain good health in 2018.
Bruce Ellington20.2230.31.22.31201.229.03
Keke Coutee13.42011.30000.327.3
Braxton Miller16.5135.30.84.618.400.319.57
Sammie Coates2.641.60.40000.16.36
DeAndrew White1140.100002

More Fantasy Football WR Resources:

Tight Ends

 

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDFLPoints
Stephen Anderson18.7231.91.40000.131.39
Anderson played 15 games last season and set career highs with 25 receptions for 342 yards. With less than 20 yards in nine of those 15 games, Anderson has more upside than Ryan Griffin, but neither tight end is much more than a streaming option. On a positive note, Houston's tight ends have the league's most favorable fantasy football strength of schedule.
Ryan Griffin20.8220.51.40000.230.05
With C.J. Fiedorowicz retiring, the Texans drafted a pair of tight ends -- Jordan Akins and Jordan Thomas -- this year. That said, Griffin is likely to start and get the most snaps at the position, but his upside is relatively limited.
Jordan Akins5.358.30.40000.18.03

More Fantasy Football TE Resources:
Keep track of our updates: (1) follow us on Twitter, (2) LIKE us on Facebook and/or (3) add us to your Google+ circle.

Thursday, July 5, 2018

2018 Fantasy Football Projections: Houston Texans

In addition to viewing our 2018 Fantasy Football Projections by position, we will post our preseason projections per team.

Below you will find our 2018 fantasy football projections for the Houston Texans.

Quarterbacks

 

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDFLPoints
Deshaun Watson465.9293.5377429.814.976.2495.33.83.5305.69
Offensive line woes and lack of experience did not slow Watson down as a rookie. Unfortunately, an ACL tear did. Before the injury, however, Watson finished with the most or second-most fantasy points in each of his final four games and eclipsed the 30-point mark in three of those four outings. Expectations are high entering season two, but he has legitimate QB1 upside for 2018 if he can stay healthy for a full season.
Brandon Weeden35.823.32581.11.12.37.400.113.06
Joe Webb10.25.1590.30.46.944.90.10.18.4

More Fantasy Football QB Resources:

Running Backs

 

PlayerAtt.YardsTDRec.YardsTDFLPoints
Lamar Miller177.9729.44.132.8278.82.60.5140.02
Miller has two 1,000-yard seasons since 2014, but he was even less efficient in 2017 (career-low 3.7 YPC) than he was in 2016 (4.0). The Texans have one of the league's worst offensive lines (actually the worst if you go by PFF rankings) and the line won't be markedly better in 2018. Even more troubling for Miller, D'Onta Foreman could eventually emerge as the primary back with Miller serving more of a complementary passing-down type of role.
D'Onta Foreman152.5640.56.19.676.80.31.2107.73
Foreman's rookie season was cut short due to an Achilles injury. Assuming he's ready for the start of the season, which "remains up in the air" at this point, Foreman should at least form a committee with Lamar Miller and it's certainly possible that he handles the larger share of the split by season's end.
Alfred Blue301080.55.941.90.30.418.99
Jay Prosch2.35.80.14.334.40.205.82
Tyler Ervin2.38.105.4270.20.53.71

More Fantasy Football RB Resources:

Wide Receivers

 

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDFLPoints
DeAndre Hopkins100.41415.68.50001190.56
Leading the NFL in receiving touchdowns (13) last season, Hopkins now has four seasons with 75-plus catches and three seasons with 1,200-plus yards through his age-25 season. With a league-high 174 targets last season, Hopkins had 35-percent target share in 10 of 15 games and double-digit targets 11 times. As the focal point of Houston's offense, he arguably has the highest floor among all receivers in the league. A model of consistency, Hopkins had 70-plus yards and/or a touchdown (plus) in all 15 games last year.
Will Fuller45.6665.85.54.622.10199.79
The Texans scored 30.71 (real) points per game with Deshaun Watson under center; only 13.67 without him. As you'd expect, the games that Fuller played with Watson were much better than those without him. Both were on the field together for just four games, but Fuller scored seven touchdowns in those four games! Durability is a concern for both as Fuller has missed multiple games in both seasons and Watson is returning from a torn ACL, but there is plenty of upside for Fuller if both maintain good health in 2018.
Bruce Ellington19.7224.61.22.31201.228.46
Keke Coutee11.81771.20000.324.3
Braxton Miller16.6136.10.84.618.400.319.65
Sammie Coates2.641.60.40000.16.36
DeAndrew White0.912.6000001.26

More Fantasy Football WR Resources:

Tight Ends

 

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDFLPoints
Ryan Griffin20.6216.31.20000.228.43
Griffin has averaged 20-something yards per game in each of the past three seasons. With C.J. Fiedorowicz (concussions) retiring, it's possible that Griffin sets a career-high per-game average but I wouldn't expect a significant jump.
Stephen Anderson18.5231.31.50000.131.93
Anderson played 15 games last season and set career highs with 25 receptions for 342 yards. With less than 20 yards in nine of those 15 games, Anderson has more upside than Ryan Griffin, but neither tight end is much more than a streaming option. On a positive note, Houston's tight ends have the league's most favorable fantasy football strength of schedule.
Jordan Akins4.650.60.30000.16.66

More Fantasy Football TE Resources:
Keep track of our updates: (1) follow us on Twitter, (2) LIKE us on Facebook and/or (3) add us to your Google+ circle.

Tuesday, May 15, 2018

2018 Fantasy Football Profile: Lamar Miller, Houston Texans

In the spirit of "if you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all," Houston Texans running back Lamar Miller posted a career-high 9.1 yards per reception last year.

In addition, he actually scored the 14th-most fantasy points (16th in PPR) at the position in 2017. In fact, I suppose he outperformed his 2017 ADP (RB17), even if it didn't necessarily feel like it.

That's the good news.

The bad news is that Miller set a career low in yards per carry (3.7), second to only his 4.0 YPC in 2016. Moreover, Miller's workload declined at the end of the season as Alfred Blue (46) had nearly 20 more carries than Miller (27) over the team's final three games.

During that span, Miller had nine, 10 and eight carries, respectively, after getting double-digit carries in each of the first 13 games to begin the season.

If third-round pick D'Onta Foreman did not tear his Achilles, the workload could have been even less down the stretch.

That said, there is some uncertainty around Foreman's status for the start of the season. The team is hopeful that he'll be ready to go for training camp. If he ends up on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) to begin the season, however, he would be forced to sit for the first six teams.

Even in that unlikely scenario, that may only delay the inevitable if Miller is unable to improve his efficiency. Giving the second-year back the bulk of carries with Miller assuming more of a passing-down role could happen at some point during the 2018 season even if Foreman starts on the PUP list.

Foreman had double-digit carries in five of his 10 carries before sustaining his injury. Foreman averaged 4.84 YPC over his final six games (vs. 3.35 YPC in his first four games). If Foreman picks up where he left off, Miller may see a reduced workload even if his efficiency improves.

Before the draft, there was even some speculation that the Texans could part ways with Miller. That seems unlikely at this point, but his grip on a healthy workload is not secure.

Another thing to not get excited about is Houston's offensive line. Per PFF, the unit ranked 32nd (of 32) last year. (Is that bad?!)

In general, the Texans offense racked up points in a hurry with Deshaun Watson under center -- 30.71 (real) points with him vs. 13.67 (real) points without him. Miller wasn't more efficient with Watson, in fact he was less efficient (3.58 YPC through seven games), but he did score four of his six touchdowns with Watson.

Should Watson stay healthy for a full season, there is a certain "high tide raises all boats" type of situation in terms of fantasy production for Houston's skill-position players.

Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule

 

Based on the fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs last season, Miller and Houston's running backs have a middling strength of schedule (17th of 32) for Weeks 1 to 16 in 2018.

- View full Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule

 

Fantasy Football Average Draft Position (ADP)

 

Below is a chart of his ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator over the past month:

Fantasy Football ADP for Lamar  Miller
Even without considering the other running backs being drafted around Miller's 5.02 ADP, backfield mate D'Onta Foreman is not being selected until the ninth round on average in FFC drafts. It wouldn't be crazy to say that Foreman should be drafted earlier than Miller; not the other way around.

The RBs off the board before Miller include Jerick McKinnon (4.03, RB19), Carlos Hyde (4.04), Alex Collins (4.05) and Kenyan Drake (4.06). Those going directly after him include Tevin Coleman (5.09), Marshawn Lynch (5.10) and Dion Lewis (6.05).

Lamar Miller: Full Season Projections

 

Below you will find full-season projections for Houston Texans RB Lamar Miller for the 2018 NFL season:

RushYardsTDRec.YardsTDFLFFB Points
161.3661.33.232.2273.72.60.5127.3

- Houston Texans 2018 Fantasy Football Projections
- More Fantasy Football Projections

Bottom Line

 

Based on his current ADP, Miller is someone that I'd avoid and I'd much rather have Foreman in terms of the discount. That said, it wouldn't be much of a surprise if sentiment pushes Miller further down fantasy draft boards more than reality warrants. Until that point (if we get there), I'll be overweight on Foreman and underweight on Miller.

Bottom line: Overvalued

Check out more of our content:
Good luck in your 2018 fantasy football leagues!

To keep track of our updates: (1) follow us on Twitter, (2) LIKE us on Facebook and/or (3) add us to your Google+ circle.

Sunday, May 6, 2018

2018 Fantasy Football Projections: Houston Texans

In addition to viewing our 2018 Fantasy Football Projections by position, we will post our preseason projections per team.

Below you will find our 2018 fantasy football projections for the Houston Texans.

Quarterbacks

 

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDFLPoints
Deshaun Watson458.6288.9371529.414.773.9480.43.73.5300.04
Offensive line woes and lack of experience did not slow Watson down as a rookie. Unfortunately, an ACL tear did. Before the injury, however, Watson finished with the most or second-most fantasy points in each of his final four games and eclipsed the 30-point mark in three of those four outings. Expectations are high entering season two, but he has legitimate QB1 upside for 2018 if he can stay healthy for a full season.
Brandon Weeden35.322.92541.11.12.2700.112.86
Joe Webb10.15.1590.30.46.743.60.10.18.27

More Fantasy Football QB Resources:

Running Backs

 

PlayerAtt.YardsTDRec.YardsTDFLPoints
Lamar Miller161.3661.33.232.2273.72.60.5127.3
Miller has two 1,000-yard seasons since 2014, but he was even less efficient in 2017 (career-low 3.7 YPC) than he was in 2016 (4.0). The Texans have one of the league's worst offensive lines (actually the worst if you go by PFF rankings) and the line won't be markedly better in 2018. Even more troubling for Miller, D'Onta Foreman could eventually emerge as the primary back with Miller serving more of a complementary passing-down type of role.
D'Onta Foreman156.8658.66.39.5760.31.2110.66
Foreman's rookie season was cut short due to an Achilles injury. Assuming he's ready for the start of the season, Foreman should at least form a committee with Lamar Miller and it's certainly possible that he handles the larger share of the split by season's end.
Alfred Blue29.1104.80.45.841.20.30.418
Jay Prosch2.25.50.14.334.40.205.79
Tyler Ervin2.27.705.326.50.20.53.62

More Fantasy Football RB Resources:

Wide Receivers

 

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDFLPoints
DeAndre Hopkins101.61432.68.60001192.86
Leading the NFL in receiving touchdowns (13) last season, Hopkins now has four seasons with 75-plus catches and three seasons with 1,200-plus yards through his age-25 season. With a league-high 174 targets last season, Hopkins had 35-percent target share in 10 of 15 games and double-digit targets 11 times. As the focal point of Houston's offense, he arguably has the highest floor among all receivers in the league. A model of consistency, Hopkins had 70-plus yards and/or a touchdown (plus) in all 15 games last year.
Will Fuller43.5635.15.24.521.60194.87
The Texans scored 30.71 (real) points per game with Deshaun Watson under center; only 13.67 without him. As you'd expect, the games that Fuller played with Watson were much better than those without him. Both were on the field together for just four games, but Fuller scored seven touchdowns in those four games! Durability is a concern for both as Fuller has missed multiple games in both seasons and Watson is returning from a torn ACL, but there is plenty of upside for Fuller if both maintain good health in 2018.
Bruce Ellington19.4221.21.22.211.401.228.06
Braxton Miller19.6160.714.51800.323.27
Keke Coutee7.61140.80000.315.6
Sammie Coates2.5400.40000.16.2
DeAndrew White1.5210.100002.7

More Fantasy Football WR Resources:

Tight Ends

 

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDFLPoints
Stephen Anderson17.7221.31.40000.130.33
Anderson played 15 games last season and set career highs with 25 receptions for 342 yards. With less than 20 yards in nine of those 15 games, Anderson has more upside than Griffin, but neither tight end is much more than a streaming option. On a positive note, Houston's tight ends have the league's most favorable fantasy football strength of schedule.
Ryan Griffin19.4203.71.20000.227.17
Griffin has averaged 20-something yards per game in each of the past three seasons. With C.J. Fiedorowicz (concussions) retiring, it's possible that Griffin sets a career-high per-game average but I wouldn't expect a significant jump.
Jordan Akins4.650.60.30000.16.66

More Fantasy Football TE Resources:
Keep track of our updates: (1) follow us on Twitter, (2) LIKE us on Facebook and/or (3) add us to your Google+ circle.