Showing posts with label Tua Tagovailoa. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tua Tagovailoa. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 2, 2025

The Daily Blitz: EDSFootball.com Updates for September 2, 2025

Earlier today, we updated fantasy football projections for multiple teams, posted consensus Week 1 NFL power rankings, and a 2025 NFL strength of schedule on EDSFootball.com.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

Pittsburgh Steelers 2025 Fantasy Football Projections

Our 2025 fantasy football projections below are for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

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QUARTERBACKS


PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDPoints
Aaron Rodgers506.8321.83572.923.0610.1440.3151.11.61239.65
Mason Rudolph35.222.5237.61.441.024.714.10.0915.17
QB Totals542344.33810.524.511.1645165.21.7254.82

Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers was QB19 on a per-game basis in 2024 with Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams (for 11 games). Yes, the Steelers traded for Jonnu Smith, but the receiving corps is a downgrade from what he had last year and it will be interesting to see how he and DK Metcalf mesh. While the four-time NFL Most Valuable Player will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer, there's zero reason to draft Rodgers in standard (single-QB) leagues.

MORE: Continue reading our Pittsburgh Steelers 2025 Fantasy Football Projections


Miami Dolphins 2025 Fantasy Football Projections

Our 2025 fantasy football projections below are for the Miami Dolphins.

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QUARTERBACKS


PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDPoints
Tua Tagovailoa507.6350.23908.525.8911.1735.893.10.36249.03
Zach Wilson72.544.2471.31.811.7415.670.20.3931.97
QB Totals580.1394.44379.827.712.9151.4163.30.75281

Tua Tagovailoa: Appearing in more than 13 games only once during his five NFL seasons, the obvious concern with Tagovailoa (in real life and fantasy) is his troubling history of concussions. Over the past three seasons, however, Tagovailoa has led the NFL in at least one different passing category — completion percentage (72.9%) in 2024, passing yards (4.624) in 2023, and TD% (6.3) and Y/A (8.9) in 2022. There's a chance he performs as a back-end QB1 if — a big if — his health cooperates, but his lack of rushing (75/193/0 since 2022) limits the upside even if he plays a full season. For example, the same year (2023) he played 17 games and led the NFL in passing yards, he finished as the QB9 in overall points (QB17 on a PPG basis).

MORE: Continue reading our Miami Dolphins 2025 Fantasy Football Projections


New York Giants 2025 Fantasy Football Projections

Updated: Tuesday, September 2, 2025

Our 2025 fantasy football projections below are for the New York Giants.

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QUARTERBACKS


PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDPoints
Russell Wilson275.8175.81985.812.695.2434.8147.91.31142.36
Jaxson Dart287.1183.72038.411.776.3235.9161.61.44140.78
QB Totals562.9359.54024.224.4611.5670.7309.52.75283.14

Russell Wilson: Playing for his fourth team in five seasons, Wilson is the favorite to enter the season as the starter but unlikely to maintain that role all year. Wilson took over for Justin Fields as Pittsburgh's starter in Week 7, and he performed as fantasy's QB18 on a per-game basis among QBs with at least six appearances during that stretch. Given the Giants used a first-round pick on Dart and the team's low expectations, it would make sense to give Dart an opportunity to gain valuable game experience sooner than later.

Jaxson Dart: Even if Wilson starts more games than Dart, it's likely that the first-rounder gets some starts, especially during the most crucial time of the fantasy season. Both Wilson and Dart are off the fantasy radar in standard single-QB drafts, but the rookie has the ability to make plays with his legs and provide some fantasy upside once he gets his shot.

MORE: Continue reading our New York Giants 2025 Fantasy Football Projections


2025 NFL Power Rankings: Week 1 Rankings

Updated: September 2, 2025

Throughout the 2025 NFL season, we will update our consensus NFL Power Rankings from a variety of national sites.

Below you will find a table of our NFL Power Rankings heading into Week 1 sorted by their average ranking. The table also lists their respective rankings at various sites (links at bottom of table).

Change is difference from last ranking: + number = improvement, - number = decline.

Previous iteration: Post-Draft 2025 NFL Power Rankings

MORE: Consensus NBA Power Rankings

MORE: Consensus MLB Power Rankings

RankTeamAvg.Chg.ESPNNFLATHCBSUSATFOXYAHPFT
1Philadelphia Eagles1.13021111111
2Baltimore Ravens2.51.212252224
3Kansas City Chiefs3.38-0.634533342
4Buffalo Bills4-0.553425553
5Green Bay Packers4.883.366344466

MORE: Full 2025 NFL Power Rankings: Week 1 Rankings


2025 NFL Strength of Schedule: Which teams have the easiest or most difficult schedules?

Updated: September 2, 2025

We are now only a couple of days away from Thursday Night Football and the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys kicking off the 2025 season.

How things appear in November or December may look much different than they do in September, but which team has the most difficult 2025 NFL schedule? Or the easiest schedule?

Using each NFL team's 2025 opponents, our NFL strength of schedule (SOS) tallies the win-loss records of each team's opponents (from last year) and then uses that cumulative win-loss record to rank the difficulty or ease of each team's schedule.

Based on 2024 records, no team has a more challenging schedule than the Giants. Their opponents have collectively won 57.4% of their games in 2024. Meanwhile, San Francisco's opponents have won a combined 41.5% of their 2024 games, which gives them the easiest schedule on paper.

2025 NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings

The table below ranks teams based on their opponents over the full season.

RankTeamOpp. RecordOpp. Win Pct.Playoff
Opponents
1New York Giants166-123-00.57410
2Detroit Lions165-124-00.57111
2Chicago Bears165-124-00.57110
4Philadelphia Eagles162-127-00.56111

MORE: See where all 32 teams rank based on their 2025 NFL Strength of Schedule

Saturday, August 9, 2025

EDSFootball.com Updates for August 9, 2025

Earlier today, we updated fantasy football projections for multiple teams and completed a couple of fantasy football mock drafts on EDSFootball.com.

2025 Fantasy Football Projections

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Philadelphia Eagles 2025 Fantasy Football Projections

Our 2025 fantasy football projections below are for the Philadelphia Eagles.

Projected fantasy points are based on half-PPR scoring.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDPoints
Jalen Hurts459.4304.43537.420.98.96140.2588.811.92337.58
Tanner McKee42.728.4303.21.710.858.48.40.0818.59
QB Totals502.1332.83840.622.619.81148.6597.212356.17

Jalen Hurts: In the same year that Saquon Barkley rushed for over 2,000 yards, Hurts set a career low as a full-time starter in pass attempts per game (24.1). In fact, that was a drop of 7.5 per game from his 2023 average (31.6). He finished 2024 throwing for only 2,903 yards, 18 touchdowns and five interceptions.

Even with Barkley's rushing greatness last season, Hurts extended streaks of 150-plus carries (to three seasons), 600-plus rushing yards (four) and double-digit rushing scores (four). Over the past four years, Hurts has compiled 611/2,779/52 rushing in 62 games, equivalent to 9.51 fantasy points per game from rushing stats alone. In addition, only two players (both running backs) — Derrick Henry (51) and Josh Jacobs (42) — come within 10 rushing touchdowns of Hurts (52) during that span, per Stathead. (Josh Allen is tied for fourth (40) with Joe Mixon and Jonathan Taylor.)

More: Jalen Hurts 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook

MORE: Continue reading our Philadelphia Eagles 2025 Fantasy Football Projections


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Miami Dolphins 2025 Fantasy Football Projections

Our 2025 fantasy football projections below are for the Miami Dolphins.

Projected fantasy points are based on half-PPR scoring.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDPoints
Tua Tagovailoa507.6350.23908.525.8911.1735.893.10.36249.03
Zach Wilson72.544.2471.31.811.7415.670.20.3931.97
QB Totals580.1394.44379.827.712.9151.4163.30.75281

Tua Tagovailoa: Appearing in more than 13 games only once during his five NFL seasons, the obvious concern with Tagovailoa (in real life and fantasy) is his troubling history of concussions. Over the past three seasons, however, Tagovailoa has led the NFL in at least one different passing category — completion percentage (72.9%) in 2024, passing yards (4.624) in 2023, and TD% (6.3) and Y/A (8.9) in 2022. There's a chance he performs as a back-end QB1 if — a big if — his health cooperates, but his lack of rushing (75/193/0 since 2022) limits the upside even if he plays a full season. For example, the same year (2023) he played 17 games and led the NFL in passing yards, he finished as the QB9 in overall points (QB17 on a PPG basis).

MORE: Continue reading our Miami Dolphins 2025 Fantasy Football Projections


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New England Patriots 2025 Fantasy Football Projections

Our 2025 fantasy football projections below are for the New England Patriots.

Projected fantasy points are based on half-PPR scoring.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDPoints
Drake Maye515.2345.23606.423.4413.468.2436.53272.87
Joshua Dobbs32.920.9220.41.150.894.522.50.2715.51
QB Totals548.1366.13826.824.5914.2972.74593.27288.38

Drake Maye: Could Maye breakout in 2025? There are plenty of positive signs. The Patriots bolstered their pass protection and pass-catching weapons via free agency and the NFL draft including Stefon Diggs, LSU's Will Campbell (Round 1), Ohio State's TreVeyon Henderson (Round 2), and Washington State's Kyle Williams (Round 3). Considering his rushing ability, Maye's floor is high even if the Patriots adopt a run-heavy approach under Mike Vrabel, but the improvement in offensive firepower gives him more upside as a passer in year two.

MORE: Continue reading our New England Patriots 2025 Fantasy Football Projections


2025 Fantasy Football Mock Drafts

The best way to become good at something is to practice. So, what should you do if you want to draft a better fantasy football team?

Practice, of course!

Leading up to the start of the 2025 NFL season, we will use the fantasy football mock draft simulator to complete fantasy football mock drafts. And we will do so using a variety of scoring formats — point per reception (PPR), half-PPR, standard scoring and even 2-QB leagues — and league sizes. The goal is to provide you with a good representation of the team that you may be able to draft given your league settings while also providing the rationale of why we made the picks we did.

> Our 2025 mocks will be centralized here: Fantasy Football Mock Drafts.

That said, nothing beats practicing yourself so (check out the simulator) and complete a mock in a matter of minutes.

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2025 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: 12-Team Super Flex Half-PPR Mock (4th Pick)

Starting positions: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Super Flex (QB/RB/WR/TE), 1 K, 1 DST; Bench spots: 6

1.04 - Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

There are a clear elite four (fantasy) quarterbacks in two mini tiers — Josh Allen with Lamar Jackson, then Jayden Daniels with Jalen Hurts. With Allen, Jackson and Daniels taken 1-2-3 in this Super Flex mock, it made sense to take Hurts here. Even though Joe Burrow went 1.05, I would have taken Ja'Marr Chase in that slot if I were picking one spot later. With a 2,000-yard season from Saquon Barkley, it's not surprising that Hurts set a career low as a full-time starter in pass attempts per game (24.1). The passing numbers were down, but Hurts' elite rushing production continued. He extended streaks of 150-plus carries (to three seasons), 600-plus rushing yards (four) and double-digit rushing scores (four). Over the past four years, Hurts has compiled 611/2,779/52 rushing in 62 games, equivalent to 9.51 fantasy points per game from rushing stats alone.

MORE: Jalen Hurts 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook

2.09 - Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants

Perhaps Jaxson Dart will provide a real long-term upgrade, but New York's 2025 quarterback situation is both below average and yet also an upgrade over what they had last year. Despite missing a couple of games and the state of the team's quarterback play, Nabers finished his rookie campaign as fantasy's WR7. With a league-high 10 games with double-digit targets and more targets than all receivers not named Ja'Marr Chase, Nabers never finished with fewer than four catches, seven targets or 41 yards in any game in 2024.

3.04 - De'Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins

Achane's year-over-year carries nearly doubled (103 to 203), but the yardage total increased by only 107 yards from 2023. The rushing efficiency dropped even more than most had expected (from his unsustainable rookie levels), but his receiving role was elite as he paced the position with 78 receptions for 592 yards and six touchdowns.

MORE: 2025 Miami Dolphins Fantasy Football Projections

4.09 - Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

While he would be a WR1 elsewhere, Higgins will continue to benefit from being the 1B to Ja'Marr Chase. While he has missed exactly five games in back-to-back seasons, Higgins finished second (behind Chase) among all wide receivers in fantasy points per game in 2024.

MORE: Continue reading our 2025 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: 12-Team Super Flex Half-PPR Mock (4th Pick)


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2025 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: 12-Team Non-PPR Mock (7th Pick)

Starting positions: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 K, 1 DST; Bench spots: 6

1.07 - Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens

Father Time may be undefeated, but Henry carried the ball 325 times for 1,921 yards, the second-best (by far) of his career, and a league-high 16 touchdowns in his age-30 season. In addition, he averaged a career-best 5.9 YPC — a half-yard more than his previous high. Yes, his receiving volume was (and will continue to be) low, but Lamar Jackson limits opposing defenses from being able to stack the box to slow him down. Repeating his 2024 numbers may be unlikely (although he has some extra motivation for 2,000 rushing yards).

2.06 - Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts

Like with Henry, a concern with Taylor is the lack of receiving volume, especially with Anthony Richardson (or Daniel Jones) under center. Taylor, who missed Weeks 5-7, had only 12/59/1 receiving on 21 targets over the final 10 games of the season. But his rushing numbers over that span were elite — 231 carries for 1,082 yards, both of which were second to only Saquon Barkley, and seven touchdowns. One additional concern with Taylor is that he has missed at least three games in three consecutive seasons.

MORE: 2026 Indianapolis Colts Mock Draft Roundup

3.07 - Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

While he would be a WR1 elsewhere, Higgins will continue to benefit from being the 1B to Ja'Marr Chase. While he has missed exactly five games in back-to-back seasons, Higgins finished fourth (behind Chase, Justin Jefferson and Chris Godwin) among all wide receivers in fantasy points per game (non-PPR) in 2024.

4.06 - Davante Adams, WR, Los Angeles Rams

Adams, who was traded midseason from the Raiders to the Jets, still managed to extend his streak of 1,000-yard, eight-TD seasons to five. Even though he turns 33 on Christmas Eve and won't dominate targets the way he had at previous stops, he should have (or come close to having) another 1,000/8 season.

MORE: 2025 Los Angeles Rams Fantasy Football Projections

MORE: Continue reading our 2025 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: 12-Team Non-PPR Mock (7th Pick)

Saturday, July 5, 2025

Updated Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins 2025 fantasy football projections

We've updated 2025 fantasy football projections today for the Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins.

The projected fantasy points listed below are based on half-PPR scoring.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

2025 Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Football Projections

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDPoints
Dak Prescott575384.14283.828.1812.08501951.55288.71
Joe Milton III40262841.520.84.4110.2218.26
QB Totals615410.14567.829.712.8854.42061.77306.97

Dak Prescott: Prescott played only eight games in 2024 and has now missed five-plus games in three of the past five seasons. Prescott went from finishing as the QB3 in 2023 to the QB21 last season in fantasy points per game. It's clear that the trade for George Pickens will make a significant impact to the offense, and his skill set is an ideal complement opposite CeeDee Lamb. That said, The Athletic's Mark Kaboly noted that several in Pittsburgh "felt that it would be counterproductive to keep [Pickens] around, even with his unique talent. They felt the locker room could turn toxic." Describing himself as "a chill guy" who is "staying humble," Pickens is entering the final year of his rookie contract and should be motivated to show the best version of himself in 2025.

MORE: Continue reading our Dallas Cowboys 2025 Fantasy Football Projections


2025 Miami Dolphins Fantasy Football Projections

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDPoints
Tua Tagovailoa493.1340.23796.925.1510.8535.893.10.36242.25
Zach Wilson8753.1565.52.182.0915.670.20.3936.52
QB Totals580.1393.34362.427.3312.9451.4163.30.75278.77

Tua Tagovailoa: Appearing in more than 13 games only once during his five NFL seasons, the obvious concern with Tagovailoa (in real life and fantasy) is his troubling history of concussions. Over the past three seasons, however, Tagovailoa has led the NFL in at least one different passing category — completion percentage (72.9%) in 2024, passing yards (4.624) in 2023, and TD% (6.3) and Y/A (8.9) in 2022. There's a chance he performs as a back-end QB1 if — a big if — his health cooperates, but his lack of rushing (75/193/0 since 2022) limits the upside even if he plays a full season. For example, the same year (2023) he played 17 games and led the NFL in passing yards, he finished as the QB9 in overall points (QB17 on a PPG basis).

MORE: Continue reading our Miami Dolphins 2025 Fantasy Football Projections

Wednesday, September 6, 2023

Miami Dolphins 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

Our Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2023 fantasy football projections for the Miami Dolphins.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDPoints
Tua Tagovailoa551.3358.34079.628.1211.5835.4106.21.59272.66
Mike White54.533.8384.21.961.646.36.30.1321.34

Tua Tagovailoa: Tagovailoa sustained multiple concussions, causing him to miss five games (counting a playoff loss) in 2022, and he even considered retiring after last season. When healthy, however, he posted career numbers and led the NFL in TD% (6.3), Y/A (8.9) and passer rating (105.5). Excluding the games he missed or left early (Weeks 4-6 and 17-18), Tagovailoa scored the seventh-most fantasy points over that span. Of course, durability and the potential for missed time factors into his 2023 outlook, but there is plenty of optimism if his health cooperates.

RUNNING BACKS

PlayerAtt.YardsTDRec.YardsTDPoints
Raheem Mostert146671.64.2320.2160.71124.71
De'Von Achane91.7412.72.3422.2180.81.492.89
Jeff Wilson Jr.89.7412.62.5114.5111.60.879.53
Salvon Ahmed31.71300.873.726.80.223.95
Alec Ingold2.74.10.1413.593.70.822.17
Chris Brooks2.18.80.051.28.90.13.27

Raheem Mostert: Mostert missed only one game in 2022, but it was just the second season of his career where he didn't miss significant time. He has played only 61 games over the past six seasons. Without any new additions to the backfield, Mostert should get 10-12 touches per game when everyone is healthy, but more than that for as long as Wilson is out. Mostert has never averaged less than 4.9 YPC in a season.

De'Von Achane: Achane has elite speed, as the former Texas A&M running back (and track star) posted a 4.32 40-yard dash at the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine. While his frame suggests he won't handle a high volume of carries in between the tackles, it's a huge positive that Mike McDaniel lobbied for the third-round pick. Given the durability concerns for Wilson and Mostert, Achane could be thrust into a larger role than expected as a rookie.

Jeff Wilson Jr.: Wilson was placed on short-term IR, making him eligible to return in Week 5. Following Wilson's midseason trade to Miami last year, both Mostert (Week 12) and Wilson (Week 15) missed one game each. In the games in which they both appeared, Wilson (82 touches) edged Mostert (80) in workload, so it's possible that he becomes the 1A of Miami's three-headed backfield at some point during the season.

WIDE RECEIVERS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Tyreek Hill109.81368.286.935.50.35245.37
Jaylen Waddle80.81124.97.32.918.90.12199.3
Braxton Berrios41457.53.41.712.10.0488.1
Cedrick Wilson17.3200.91.500037.74
Erik Ezukanma11.2131.7100024.77
River Cracraft6.782.60.600015.21

Tyreek Hill: After transitioning from Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City's high-powered offense, the drop in production that many forecast for Hill never materialized. In fact, the explosive wideout averaged more than 100 receiving yards per game for the first time ever as he set career highs in targets (170), receptions (119) and yards (1,710) in 2022. Per NFL Media's Ian Rapoport, Hill won't face any disciplinary action from the league.

Jaylen Waddle: With Tyreek Hill setting career highs in targets, receptions and yards, it's not a surprise that Waddle's targets dropped to 117 (in 2022) from 140 (in 2021). That said, he was utilized further downfield as his ADOT jumped to 12.7 (from 7.0), per PFF, and he led the NFL in yards per reception (18.1). He finished as fantasy's WR7 overall and was 13th on a per-game basis (13.0).

TIGHT ENDS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Durham Smythe31.4321.42.700064.04
Tyler Kroft10.2102.70.800020.17
Julian Hill8.691.50.700017.65

Durham Smythe: Even though he tops the depth chart, it's unlikely that Smythe produces a fantasy-relevant season. After all, Mike Gesicki had only 32/362/5 receiving for the Dolphins last season.

More Miami Dolphins pages:

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Check out our mock draft databases:

Keep track of our site's updates: (1) follow us on Twitter, (2) like us on Facebook and/or (3) subscribe to our newsletter.

Wednesday, August 30, 2023

Miami Dolphins 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

Our Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2023 fantasy football projections for the Miami Dolphins.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDPoints
Tua Tagovailoa551.3358.34079.628.1211.5835.4106.21.59272.66
Mike White54.533.8384.21.961.646.36.30.1321.34

Tua Tagovailoa: Tagovailoa sustained multiple concussions, causing him to miss five games (counting a playoff loss) in 2022, and he even considered retiring after last season. When healthy, however, he posted career numbers and led the NFL in TD% (6.3), Y/A (8.9) and passer rating (105.5). Excluding the games he missed or left early (Weeks 4-6 and 17-18), Tagovailoa scored the seventh-most fantasy points over that span. Of course, durability and the potential for missed time factors into his 2023 outlook, but there is plenty of optimism if his health cooperates.

RUNNING BACKS

PlayerAtt.YardsTDRec.YardsTDPoints
Jeff Wilson Jr.131.4604.43.5524.71831.2119.59
Raheem Mostert129.3594.83.4320.2160.71112.23
De'Von Achane82.2369.92.122.2189.71.488.06
Alec Ingold2.74.10.1414.9109.4125.64
Salvon Ahmed16.366.80.451.411.20.111.8
Chris Brooks2.18.80.051.28.90.13.27

Jeff Wilson Jr.: Following Wilson's midseason trade to Miami, both Raheem Mostert (Week 12) and Wilson (Week 15) missed one game each. In the games in which they both appeared, Wilson (82 touches) edged Mostert (80) in workload. Going into the 2023 season, I project Wilson to maintain a relatively slight edge. Clouding the outlook for both has been Miami's consistent interest in various free agents or trade candidates (e.g., Jonathan Taylor) and the addition of De'Von Achane, their speedy third-round rookie.

Raheem Mostert: Mostert missed only one game in 2022, but it was just the second season of his career where he didn't miss significant time. He has played only 61 games over the past six seasons. Without any new additions to the backfield, Mostert should get 10-12 touches per game as long as he's healthy, and he's never averaged less than 4.9 YPC in a season.

De'Von Achane: Achane has elite speed, as the former Texas A&M running back (and track star) posted a 4.32 40-yard dash at the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine. While his frame suggests he won't handle a high volume of carries in between the tackles, it's a huge positive that Mike McDaniel lobbied for the third-round pick. Even though both Wilson and Mostert are in front of him on the depth chart, Achane could be thrust into a larger role than expected as a rookie given the durability histories of Wilson and Mostert. Speaking of injuries, however, Achane is still dealing with a shoulder injury.

WIDE RECEIVERS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Tyreek Hill109.81372.686.935.50.35245.81
Jaylen Waddle80.81124.97.32.918.90.12199.3
Braxton Berrios41457.53.41.712.10.0488.1
Cedrick Wilson18.22121.500039.3
Erik Ezukanma11.2131.7100024.77
River Cracraft6.782.60.600015.21

Tyreek Hill: After transitioning from Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City's high-powered offense, the drop in production that many forecast for Hill never materialized. In fact, the explosive wideout averaged more than 100 receiving yards per game for the first time ever as he set career highs in targets (170), receptions (119) and yards (1,710) in 2022. It's still unclear if Hill will eventually face a suspension for a June 18th incident, which has been resolved from a legal standpoint.

Jaylen Waddle: With Tyreek Hill setting career highs in targets, receptions and yards, it's not a surprise that Waddle's targets dropped to 117 (in 2022) from 140 (in 2021). That said, he was utilized further downfield as his ADOT jumped to 12.7 (from 7.0), per PFF, and he led the NFL in yards per reception (18.1). He finished as fantasy's WR7 overall and was 13th on a per-game basis (13.0).

TIGHT ENDS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Durham Smythe31.4325.92.800065.09
Julian Hill8.693.70.800018.47

Durham Smythe: The Dolphins have only two healthy tight ends on their initial 53-man roster, so Smythe is the runaway favorite to lead Miami's tight ends in fantasy points. That said, it's unlikely that Smythe produces a fantasy-usable season. After all, Mike Gesicki had only 32/362/5 receiving for the Dolphins last season.

More Miami Dolphins pages:

More of our content:

Check out our mock draft databases:

Keep track of our site's updates: (1) follow us on Twitter, (2) like us on Facebook and/or (3) subscribe to our newsletter.

Saturday, August 26, 2023

2023 NFL Division Predictions: AFC East

Before the start of the season, I will post my division-by-division predictions for the 2023 NFL regular season and postseason.

Instead of projecting an outright winner and loser in all 272 regular-season games, I've assigned a win probability to each team in every game and totalled them up.

Check out our 2023 NFL Predictions page for other divisions.

With that said, here are our early AFC East projections for each team including their win total.

1. Buffalo Bills - Projected Wins: 10.32

The Bills have clinched three consecutive AFC East titles while finishing with four consecutive 10-win seasons. Since taking over as head coach, Sean McDermott has led the Bills to the postseason in five of six seasons. While they are the team to beat, this division is arguably the strongest from top to bottom in the NFL.

It all starts with Josh Allen, who has a 17-game average over the past three seasons of 4,591 passing yards, 36 touchdowns and 13 interceptions to go along with 675 rushing yards and seven more touchdowns. The dual-threat talent has flourished since the team traded for Stefon Diggs, who has 338/4,189/29 receiving during that three-year span. The addition of Dalton Kincaid, their first-round pick, to join Dawson Knox, James Cook, and Gabe Davis round out a talented group of pass catchers. Diggs recently talked up Davis, saying he's "damn near WR1 in my eyes." Ranking second in the NFL in total offense and scoring offense last season, the Bills will once again have one of the league's most explosive offenses.

The defense lost Terrell Edmunds, who signed a free-agent deal with the Chicago Bears, but the team has finished first or second in scoring defense in three of the past four seasons. They have finished top six in total defense in four of the past five seasons. Because of their strength of both sides of the ball, it's not surprising that they have led the NFL in scoring differential in back-to-back seasons.

Despite the challenge the Bills will face from the rest of the division, our expectation is that they will win their fourth consecutive division title. Given the expectations of the team and fan base, what will really matter is how deep into the postseason they will go. (It's been 30 years — the 1993 season — since the Bills have made it to the Super Bowl.)

MORE: Buffalo Bills 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

2. Miami Dolphins - Projected Wins: 9.23

First-year head coach Mike McDaniel led the Dolphins to the playoffs in 2022. Although they lost to the Bills by a field goal in the Wild Card round, it was their first playoff appearance since the 2016 season and only their third trip to the postseason in two decades.

The Dolphins started the season 8-3, losing only in the three games that Tua Tagovailoa either left early or missed. Tagovailoa was outstanding through Week 12 — 69.7% completion rate, 9.03 Y/A, 19-to-three TD-INT ratio and 115.7 passer rating. He wasn't as good in December (0-4 in four starts before missing the final three games including their playoff loss), but the offense was generally firing on all cylinders as he led the NFL in TD% (6.3), Y/A (8.9), and passer rating (105.5) in 2022.

The duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are as talented as any duo in the league, and Hill averaged more than 100 yards per game for the first time in his career last season. The Dolphins have a lot of speed at the skill positions, and a deep rotation of running backs, when healthy, with Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr. and Devon Achane. As long Tagovailoa stays healthy, McDaniel & Co. will operate one of the NFL's top offenses.

Vic Fangio will take over Miami's defense, and he'll be reunited with Bradley Chubb from his time in Denver. Meanwhile, former first-rounder Jaelan Phillips has had two strong seasons (15.5 career sacks) already, and he finished as PFF's sixth-graded edge in 2022. As an ascending prospect now coached by one of the league's best defensive minds, Phillips is a player that will appear on many breakout lists heading into 2023. While the defense should apply plenty of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, they have a talented secondary led by Xavien Howard, Jalen Ramsey (when he returns) and Jevon Holland, among others.

MORE: Miami Dolphins 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

3. New York Jets - Projected Wins: 8.92

Maybe it's too early to call Zach Wilson a "bust," but it would be an understatement to say that he has struggled early in his young career. Through two seasons (22 games), Wilson has thrown more interceptions (18) than touchdowns (15) and has completed only 55.2% of his pass attempts. Both Mike White and Joe Flacco each started four games in 2022, but the Jets will bank on Aaron Rodgers being that missing piece on an otherwise talented roster.

Rodgers is coming off a down year himself, but he's a four-time NFL MVP. While Breece Hall is rehabbing a torn ACL, he was coming into his own before the injury and could provide a boost to the offense as the season progresses. That said, signing Dalvin Cook means that Jets won't need to put too much on Hall's plate before he's ready. Meanwhile, Garrett Wilson won NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (83/1,103/4) despite the team's poor quarterback play last season. Rodgers will find comfort and familiar faces in Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb.

Not only did the Jets have the Offensive ROY, but they had the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year as well. In fact, Sauce Gardner was first-team AP All-Pro in 2022 as a rookie. With a defense anchored by defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and Gardner, the Jets ranked top four in the NFL in both scoring and total defense in 2022. Only the Eagles (4.78) allowed fewer yards per play than the Jets (4.84) last season

Obviously, Jets' fans are hoping for major improvements on offense by trading for Rodgers. But even if they offense is middle of the road, they have a chance to challenge for a division title in one of the league's most competitive divisions. And if they make the postseason, they will end the NFL's longest active playoff drought (12 seasons).

MORE: New York Jets 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

4. New England Patriots - Projected Wins: 7.71

February 3, 2019: The last time that the Patriots have won a playoff game. While they have made the playoffs in two of the past four seasons, they have exited in the Wild Card round in both of those seasons (2019 and 2021).

During the Tom Brady era (2001-2019), the Patriots were top 12 in scoring offense every single season. From 2004-2019, they finished outside the top 12 in total offense only once (15th, 2019). Since then, they have finished 27th, 15th and 26th in total offense, respectively. With Bill O'Brien returning to run the offense, it should be better than it was last season and Rhamondre Stevenson is a versatile and talented young running back. That said, they would rank fourth in the division if we were to power rank quarterback situations, and their receiving corps won't scare any opposing secondaries. This could potentially be a make-or-break season for Mac Jones.

The strength of New England's team is its defense. Matt Judon is one of the league's better edge rushers, and Christian Barmore is a talented young player. Although he tends to zig when others zag, Bill Belichick hit it straight down the fairway and got a steal with Oregon cornerback Christian Gonzalez in the first round. New England's defense ranked fourth in fewest yards per play allowed, and only the Dallas Cowboys (33) had more takeaways than the Patriots (30), who tied for second with the San Francisco 49ers. They ranked second behind the 49ers (25.7%) in the NFL in percentage of drives ending in a score (30.5%).

With matchups against the Eagles, Dolphins, Jets and Cowboys to open the season, the Patriots have a brutal start to their season and will likely enter each of their first four games as underdogs against teams with outstanding defenses.

MORE: New England Patriots 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

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Sunday, August 6, 2023

Miami Dolphins 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

Our Fantasy Football Projections will be viewable by both position and team.

Below you will find our 2023 fantasy football projections for the Miami Dolphins.

MORE: Fantasy football projections for more NFL teams

QUARTERBACKS

PlayerAtt.Comp.YardsTDINTRushYardsTDPoints
Tua Tagovailoa551.3358.34107.228.9411.5835.4106.21.59277.05
Mike White54.533.8384.21.961.646.36.30.1321.34

Tua Tagovailoa: Tagovailoa sustained multiple concussions, causing him to miss five games (counting a playoff loss) in 2022, and he even considered retiring after last season. When healthy, however, he posted career numbers and led the NFL in TD% (6.3), Y/A (8.9) and passer rating (105.5). Excluding the games he missed or left early (Weeks 4-6 and 17-18), Tagovailoa scored the seventh-most fantasy points over that span. Of course, durability and the potential for missed time factors into his 2023 outlook, but there is plenty of optimism if his health cooperates.

RUNNING BACKS

PlayerAtt.YardsTDRec.YardsTDPoints
Jeff Wilson Jr.141.8652.33.8325.7195.41.3128.4
Raheem Mostert133.5614.13.5420.6157.21.1115.27
De'Von Achane73.8332.11.8821.2172.91.279.58
Alec Ingold2.74.10.1412.996.60.922.76
Salvon Ahmed12.149.60.331.290.19.04

Jeff Wilson Jr.: Following Wilson's midseason trade to Miami, both Raheem Mostert (Week 12) and Wilson (Week 15) missed one game each. In the games in which they both appeared, Wilson (82 touches) edged Mostert (80) in workload. Going into the 2023 season, I project Wilson to maintain a relatively slight edge, but the addition of De'Von Achane, their speedy third-round rookie, (and a potential signing of Dalvin Cook) only clouds the outlook even further.

Raheem Mostert: Mostert missed only one game in 2022, but it was just the second season of his career where he didn't miss significant time. He has played only 61 games over the past six seasons. Without any new additions to the backfield, Mostert should get 10-12 touches per game as long as he's healthy, and he's never averaged less than 4.9 YPC in a season.

De'Von Achane: Achane has elite speed, as the former Texas A&M running back (and track star) posted a 4.32 40-yard dash at the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine. While his frame suggests he won't handle a high volume of carries in between the tackles, it's a huge positive that Mike McDaniel lobbied for the third-round pick. So, even if both Wilson and Mostert start in front of Achane on the depth chart, Achane could be thrust into a larger role than expected as a rookie, especially given the durability histories of Wilson and Mostert.

WIDE RECEIVERS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Tyreek Hill109.81381.17.86.935.50.35245.46
Jaylen Waddle80.81131.87.43.120.20.12200.72
Braxton Berrios35.1390.82.61.510.70.0473.54
Chosen Anderson17.1226.81.600040.83
Cedrick Wilson12.4143.7100026.57
Erik Ezukanma7.380.80.600015.33

Tyreek Hill: After transitioning from Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City's high-powered offense, the drop in production that many forecast for Hill never materialized. In fact, the explosive wideout averaged more than 100 receiving yards per game for the first time ever as he set career highs in targets (170), receptions (119) and yards (1,710) in 2022. Hill was involved in a June 18th incident, which was under both police and league investigation, but attorneys for both sides issued a statement saying they have "resolved their differences."

Jaylen Waddle: With Tyreek Hill setting career highs in targets, receptions and yards, it's not a surprise that Waddle's targets dropped to 117 (in 2022) from 140 (in 2021). That said, he was utilized further downfield as his ADOT jumped to 12.7 (from 7.0), per PFF, and he led the NFL in yards per reception (18.1). He finished as fantasy's WR7 overall and was 13th on a per-game basis (13.0).

TIGHT ENDS

PlayerRec.YardsTDRushYardsTDPoints
Durham Smythe21.6224.62.300047.06
Eric Saubert12.5125.81.400027.23
Elijah Higgins8.294.30.900018.93
Tyler Kroft5.960.60.500012.01

Durham Smythe: Even if Smythe leads Miami's tight ends in fantasy points, it's unlikely that Smythe (or any Dolphins tight end) produces a fantasy-usable season. After all, Mike Gesicki had only 32/362/5 receiving for the Dolphins last season.

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